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MadScientistMatt
MadScientistMatt PowerDork
10/3/16 3:08 p.m.

The real question about the hard exit: How many of the countries in the EU will simply cut a free trade deal with the UK anyway?

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
10/3/16 3:08 p.m.
NEALSMO wrote:
tuna55 wrote:
Tom_Spangler wrote:
NEALSMO wrote:
Tom_Spangler wrote:
NEALSMO wrote: In reply to 1988RedT2: Yep. I'll take the opinion of an experienced, educated, highly awarded specialist over the opinion of the masses any day.

Well, that's terrifying. Think about the implications of that statement.

In this specific context that isn't terrifying at all.

Maybe, maybe not. It's hard to know, since "experts" are wrong all the time. But it would be a hell of a precedent to set.

Democracy may not be perfect, but it's still better than anything else humans have come up with.

I'm really glad that this guy wasn't around during the American Revolution

WTF are you talking about? We're not discussing the American Revolution, we're talking about the Brexit. Settle down with your giant leaps Evil Kenivel. Let's keep it in context, umm'kay.

Lets say you and your family are making a financial plan. You have access to a panel of financial specialists or you can take a vote from all your neighbors on how to spend your money. Which do you choose?

Neither.

'Cause 'Murica.

RX Reven'
RX Reven' Dork
10/3/16 3:14 p.m.

Hi NEALSMO,

Pardon my ignorance but with regards to Brexit, aren’t their neighbors also the financial experts?

Admittedly, I started to go off the rails several posts back when the American Revolution somehow got sucked into this…is it just me, should I move my post to the minor confessions thread “Hi, I’m RX Reven’ and I couldn’t get my head around an analogy, no matter how simple, if my life depended on it.”

Jay
Jay UltraDork
10/3/16 3:19 p.m.

Well done, UK rulers. Way to lock 55 million people onto a tiny island with a dying economy and no prospects, because a few old people were scared of some Poles coming over to do a better job at their plumbing. East Germany would have been proud.

Anyone in favor of this E36 M3storm needs to wake up and realize it's not 1956 anymore. "Sovereignty" is an obsolete concept that should have been kicked to the kerb after when WW1 rolled around. The world already globalized and there's no backsies, so it's time to collectively get our E36 M3 together and make that work. Clinging desperately to a misguided idea of nationalism to "protect" you from the evil of the foreigners is basically reading from the Best Korea playbook.

codrus
codrus SuperDork
10/3/16 3:21 p.m.
NEALSMO wrote: Lets say you and your family are making a financial plan. You have access to a panel of financial specialists or you can take a vote from all your neighbors on how to spend your money. Which do you choose?

That's a bad analogy. It's more like you and your neighbors have decided to pool some money to make improvements to your neighborhood. Do you take a vote from all of the people who put the money in, or do you let some self-described "expert" who lives 300 miles away with no skin in the game make all the decisions without any input from you?

NEALSMO
NEALSMO UltraDork
10/3/16 3:50 p.m.
codrus wrote:
NEALSMO wrote: Lets say you and your family are making a financial plan. You have access to a panel of financial specialists or you can take a vote from all your neighbors on how to spend your money. Which do you choose?

That's a bad analogy. It's more like you and your neighbors have decided to pool some money to make improvements to your neighborhood. Do you take a vote from all of the people who put the money in, or do you let some self-described "expert" who lives 300 miles away with no skin in the game make all the decisions without any input from you?

Except all the other countries (European UNION) have put money in also and the expert may live 300 miles away but is still in the EU, so also has skin in the game.

Or we can just ignore all analogies and discuss the Brexit from the European union. Where major economic specialists and fellow members of the Union feel that it is a bad idea to leave the EU. Unfortunately nationalism won out and now we will see what this experiment will lead to.

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
10/3/16 4:43 p.m.
MadScientistMatt wrote: The real question about the hard exit: How many of the countries in the EU will simply cut a free trade deal with the UK anyway?

Easy. None.

It's a European UNION. If they start doing that, it will all fall apart. And many will do virtually anything to prevent.

It's not just about free trade, it's all of the regulations around those trade items, BTW. Whatever the UK sells in the EU, it all has to be EU compliant. And that problem was one of the things that the Brexit elite were complaining about.

Basil Exposition
Basil Exposition SuperDork
10/3/16 5:32 p.m.

Brexit was much more complicated that a few jingoistic reasons. Much of it because David Cameron's bluff got called in a dangerous game that he was playing. There was a lot of BS flying around before the election on both sides of the question. Much of the post-election regret came from roiling markets immediately after the vote. All that has calmed down now and I don't think the regret is as intense as it was.

Britain has always seen itself as slightly apart from "the Continent" and many of the EU laws and regulations have been chafing them for decades. An inability to control their own borders became a big issue before the vote because of the immigrants that have been camping in Calais and elsewhere in Europe trying to find a way into Britain. I have British friends who perceive that their British culture has almost disappeared already under the weight of post-Empire immigrants, much less the new waves from the Middle East. Call it nationalism or fear of change or even racism if you will, but many still believe that being British means something, is under threat, and is worth protecting. It goes beyond protecting British jobs.

Honestly, I don't see how Brexit is all that big of a deal in the wider economy or even for the British. Essentially, since Britain brilliantly avoided the common currency, the implications are for free trade with EU partners and free movement across borders by foreigners and immigrants. Yes, reducing free trade will have economic implications, but I expect Britain will manage to negotiate trade agreements that will negate most of those issues.

There are some political implications. Britain will no longer have a seat at the table as Europe makes decisions within the EU. The US has, therefore, lost its best influential partner and window into those matters.

As to who should make those decisions? Well, the most efficient form of government is a benevolent dictatorship. The most fair government is a democracy (fair being a relative thing when talking about governments). What do you want? Fairness or efficiency?

Nick (Bo) Comstock
Nick (Bo) Comstock UltimaDork
10/3/16 5:35 p.m.

Based on my world view and beliefs about civilisation I firmly believe that globalization is bad and sovereignty is good. I believe the Brits got it right on both accounts. I believe more countries should follow suit. For the sake of humanity as a whole. My two cents.

RX Reven'
RX Reven' Dork
10/3/16 5:39 p.m.
alfadriver wrote: many will do virtually anything to prevent.

That’s a mighty powerful indication that the “clingy” parties are getting an excessively sweet deal and setting possible synergies, economies of scale, etc. aside for the moment there typically is an approximately equal number of parties that are getting an excessively E36 M3’y deal.

alfadriver
alfadriver MegaDork
10/3/16 6:17 p.m.
RX Reven' wrote:
alfadriver wrote: many will do virtually anything to prevent.

That’s a mighty powerful indication that the “clingy” parties are getting an excessively sweet deal and setting possible synergies, economies of scale, etc. aside for the moment there typically is an approximately equal number of parties that are getting an excessively E36 M3’y deal.

Don't be so trade centric. There's a lot more to the EU than free trade.

There's a lot to sticking together.

Right now, it's pretty easy to see Russia use the disaster in Syria to destabilize the EU by putting millions of refugees into the system that nobody wants to do. There's a lot of interest to keep it together.

Jay
Jay UltraDork
10/3/16 7:09 p.m.
Nick (Bo) Comstock wrote: Based on my world view and beliefs about civilisation I firmly believe that globalization is bad and sovereignty is good. I believe the Brits got it right on both accounts. I believe more countries should follow suit. For the sake of humanity as a whole. My two cents.

Why? What possible social problems are we solving by walling off bits of the world and trapping people (a) into the bit they're born in, and (b) out of the bits they're not? Because, fundamentally, that's what "countries" do. There is no innate property of humanity called "national identity"; it's completely artificial.

I'm a firm believer in natural human rights, i.e. that everyone has innate rights that are not created by governments (this is one of the founding principles of the US Constitution.) The freedom to move, migrate, and travel in order to better your situation is one of those rights, and the actions of governments to restrict that right is, bluntly, evil.

I think it's been proven time and time again that "good fences make good neighbors" does not scale up to a highly-interconnected global population. Ref.: Best Korea, East Germany, WW*, Apartheid.

The EU has its problems (huge ones) but it's one of the few places on Earth where post-nationalism is even being tried, in any capacity. And we've barely even started scratching at the outcome of it. Progress TAKES TIME. We can't let it be clawed back in a (relatively speaking) split-second decision driven by the old, scared set wallowing in false nostalgia and afraid that society passed them by.

<-- Note: European, English-speaking, "millennial", multiple-time immigrant. I have a lot more skin in this than some of you do.

Jay
Jay UltraDork
10/3/16 7:14 p.m.

Or to put it more bluntly, this incredibly asinine decision, if it proceeds the way the brexit supporters want, strips away fundamental rights that UK citizens formerly had - the right to live where they want, and complete in a much broader market - and instantly makes a 2nd class out of people who formerly had equality - continental Europeans living in the UK (like my own cousin who's been there since 2010) and Brits living in mainland Europe.

In my mind stripping away rights and equality from people is very, very evil.

Nick (Bo) Comstock
Nick (Bo) Comstock UltimaDork
10/3/16 7:19 p.m.

In reply to Jay:

To each his own. I don't see things the same way you do. My opinion isn't anymore valid or invalid as yours is. The world I want to live in looks a whole lot different than the world you seem to want. And that's okay. There is nothing either of us can do about it anyway.

Jay
Jay UltraDork
10/3/16 8:13 p.m.
Nick (Bo) Comstock wrote: In reply to Jay: To each his own. I don't see things the same way you do. My opinion isn't anymore valid or invalid as yours is. The world I want to live in looks a whole lot different than the world you seem to want. And that's okay. There is nothing either of us can do about it anyway.

Well, I'm not going to disrespect your opinion or try to argue you out of it, but I'd still like to know why you think that way? Show me your perspective here. :P I'm not gonna agree, but I'm curious.

BoxheadTim
BoxheadTim UltimaDork
10/3/16 8:25 p.m.

In reply to Jay:

Those are not the only rights the Tories want to strip away. They've been going on about repealing human rights legislation based on the European Convention of Human Rights (which has nothing to do with the EU, even though the Tories are pretending it does) for over a decade now, and Theresa May has been pretty much on the forefront of it.

Apparently it's just not right when people you don't like/disagree with have rights that prevent you from just throwing them in the slammer or deporting them because due process gets in the way.

Britain has one of the biggest wealth gaps in the EU and there are a lot of economic losers outside the Southeast. The Brexit message did resonate especially with those people, but thanks to a 'blame the EU' message that's been going back to the days of Maggie T. This is not something that's happened overnight, but the results of specific messaging mostly by the British right that's gone one for decades.

That said, the EU (which has turned out to be a rather unpleasant and undemocratic instution over the past couple decades) was never going to allow for a Brexit light. It's been pretty clear for months that the British government has been delusional about home much leverage they really have in the negotiations (not much) and that certain EU members are trying to make the whole process as painful as possible to discourage other countries from voting themselves out.

As to the economic impact - a lot of people aren't aware that Britain has an outsized financial sector (around 25% of total GDP). It's a preferred location for financial firms due comparatively lax regulations and EU passporting rights, which means that they have access to the whole EU market even though they are only licensed in the U.K.. Brexit will have a major impact on that business and that is going to have a major impact on London and the surrounding areas, which are the wealthiest areas in the U.K.

EastCoastMojo
EastCoastMojo Mod Squad
10/3/16 9:02 p.m.

I was hoping for the best but, yep it went downhill.

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