Give me a stock tip.

I'm probably going to jump heavy in TSLA soon. This is a purely speculative move, but my reasoning is this: For the longest time, I have not been able to figure out why they're valued so high and thought they were overvalued. I don't think that they're doing anything particularly better than Ford, Rivian, GM, etc., and have been making mistakes left and right in terms of production. They're trendy, they have a high dollar product, but their big "asset" is that they're essentially the first electric cars to market, and they've pushed a lot of them out quickly. I don't see how this puts them in a long term better position than Ford, as a comparison. 

However, that clearly does not matter. The price just goes up. If it is down, it will go up again. So I'm guessing that they'll be one of the quicker companies to recover in terms of stock price. YMMV.

In reply to mtn :

why would someone selling a luxury good be quick to recover?

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to mtn :

why would someone selling a luxury good be quick to recover?

Honestly, this is what confuses me. I agree with you 100%. But I have been wrong every single time I thought I knew what was going on with Tesla in terms of their stock price. So my assumption that I'm working under here is that the product doesn't matter, the speculation and whatever sorcery Elon is doing is what matters. 

In reply to mtn :

I hope you did it. If so, you've made 50% on your money in 3 weeks. 

Apple couldn't match Sony's cd Walkman. But the iPod was not a walkman. Tesla may not be able to match Ford's cars. But Tesla isn't selling cars.

Comparing Tesla to a car company is the wrong comparison. The stock market, it would appear, agrees.

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to mtn :

I hope you did it. If so, you've made 50% on your money in 3 weeks. 

I actually went heavier than I already was into Pharma. Happy with that. Tesla would have been better. 

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

Unfortunately, I missed that moment. 
 

Not sure how I missed it. I usually watch TSLA   

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Apple couldn't match Sony's cd Walkman. But the iPod was not a walkman. Tesla may not be able to match Ford's cars. But Tesla isn't selling cars.

Comparing Tesla to a car company is the wrong comparison. The stock market, it would appear, agrees.

This, in a highly simplistic nutshell. It's not the cars that matter, though 8 years on there still isn't a true competitor from anyone else. They have the engineering and technology for the cars, the batteries (gigafactory, powerwall, smart grid), the distribution (supercharger network), and have managed to break the old guard (dealerships) in the process. Add in the first to market, the brand cachet, and the Space-X tie in and you are starting to get a picture of the company. They are and will continue to be the biggest disruptor and fundamental change of a massive market for the foreseeable future. 

As a petrolhead it pains me to say it, but ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet.

I got my first quarter statement yesterday.  I thought about burning it, unopened, but decided I couldn't do it.

Down 9.5%.  Slightly off where I started last year.  And that's before the  bounce in early April.  

I was expecting much worse.  I guess the guys I pay too much money to manage my money are actually doing something for their wage.

Whelp, if you'd picked TSLA on 11/29/19 when you originally posted this your $500 would now be worth about $1700. 

If MTN had jumped in like he said on 4/3/20 with $500, He'd have $1169. 

Shoot.  I guess I sold my NVDA too soon.

It was in the low $200's back at the end of November.  Around $380 today.

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Whelp, if you'd picked TSLA on 11/29/19 when you originally posted this your $500 would now be worth about $1700. 

If MTN had jumped in like he said on 4/3/20 with $500, He'd have $1169. 

I missed the TSLA opportunity but the $3,000 in Amazon stock I bought 27ish years ago closed today at $92,118 which is safely more than my total debt (mortgage, car loan, and wife's credit card...my credit card has $39.60 on it it can be ignored).  My Amazon in my Roth IRA so no tax will be owed if I wait until I'm 59.5 (3.5 years away) or get E36 M3 canned from my job.

Bought TSLA @ $331.  When it hit $650 I sold half and I'm holding the rest.  Wish I'd bought more,

AAZCD said:

... I did pick up some GE and NVDA. I'm not thinking that we are at THE bottom of the market, but news fatigue is setting in and Corona has been hyped so much that I think that the actual outcome of the Pandemic will not be as severe as the marketing for it.

Since then my USAA investment account was transitioned to Schwab. I didn't like the interface with Schwab at all and it made a whole new mess of slow web pages to slog through compared to how I had worked simply with the USAA app. I sold everything and started fresh with Robinhood. I like Robinhood a lot. The free stock for joining and referring is pretty cool too. Here's Greg Smith's link from earlier: https://join.robinhood.com/gregors869 and mine: https://join.robinhood.com/jonathr8846 if you'd like to pick one of us as a referrer. The free stock I got when I first signed up was 'VBIV' it's been up and down a bit around $4 - $5 a share. 

For stocks, I dumped GE - it seems pretty well anchored. The NVDA has more than doubled in price and has quarterly earnings coming out this week. Still a good buy? Copart (CPRT) has gained back it's big loss from the Corona hit and seems like it will remain a steady gainer.

I only dabble with an etrade account.

I bought BAC (Bank of America) at $6.0x many years ago. Trades about $25 now.

Earlier this year after the covid I bought Jetblue at $6-7. Now trading at $10+

I bought Cummins at $15x last year or BC (before covid) this year. Pushing $200 now.

I got beat up pretty bad trying out Pot stocks. My money got inhaled.

1988RedT2 said:

Shoot.  I guess I sold my NVDA too soon.

It was in the low $200's back at the end of November.  Around $380 today.

DISCLOSURE: I am an NVIDIA employee.

I bought a chunk of NVDA at ~$18 a few years back. Two years ago we were at $296 and then the stock dipped to ~$150 over a three month span. It made me sick at the time. I held my position and today we are at $495. Around that time I had a financial advisor tell me that I should diversify my investment, but I couldn't get myself to do it. If I had followed their advice I'd have sold at $160 or so and I'd really be sick thinking about all of the money I'd lost. 

One thing I've learned from working in tech is always sell a portion of your ESPP and/or RSUs every year. I know too many people that held onto everything thinking that they'd retire at 40 only to lose everything. One person I know splurged on a jet ski one year. He kicked himself over it for years. Then the stock crashed. Then he thought "at least I got a jet ski".

Air Canada took a dive earlier this year and I bought some. It's coming back slowly.

They won't go bankrupt, our government will just bail them out again so, really, I'm just getting some of my tax dollars back when it goes up.

RX Reven' said:

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Whelp, if you'd picked TSLA on 11/29/19 when you originally posted this your $500 would now be worth about $1700. 

If MTN had jumped in like he said on 4/3/20 with $500, He'd have $1169. 

I missed the TSLA opportunity but the $3,000 in Amazon stock I bought 27ish years ago closed today at $92,118 which is safely more than my total debt (mortgage, car loan, and wife's credit card...my credit card has $39.60 on it it can be ignored).  My Amazon in my Roth IRA so no tax will be owed if I wait until I'm 59.5 (3.5 years away) or get E36 M3 canned from my job.

2 weeks after you "missed" the TSLA opportunity, I took it.

I bought TSLA on 7/14 for $1,499.  Terrible price.  Today it is $1836.  That's a 22% gain in one month.

Long term, I'm buying ETFs right now. 

Will see what happens but I like getting my monthly dividend.

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

I keep thinking that TSLA is way overvalued. I also make terrible choices when I try to be smart and analytical. I need a good system, like picking the third letter from each sentence in a random paragraph.

Edit: So I just tried that 'system' and came up with NIO, "The Tesla of China". ...and being analytical I say, "No way should I buy a China stock right now." I bet it does great. Currently at $14.06.

In reply to AAZCD (Forum Supporter) :

Yes.  TSLA is way overvalued.

It's still going up.  I'd consider buying more if I had enough money.  Even at today's stupid high price. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

RX Reven' said:

Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:

Whelp, if you'd picked TSLA on 11/29/19 when you originally posted this your $500 would now be worth about $1700. 

If MTN had jumped in like he said on 4/3/20 with $500, He'd have $1169. 

I missed the TSLA opportunity but the $3,000 in Amazon stock I bought 27ish years ago closed today at $92,118 which is safely more than my total debt (mortgage, car loan, and wife's credit card...my credit card has $39.60 on it it can be ignored).  My Amazon in my Roth IRA so no tax will be owed if I wait until I'm 59.5 (3.5 years away) or get E36 M3 canned from my job.

2 weeks after you "missed" the TSLA opportunity, I took it.

I bought TSLA on 7/14 for $1,499.  Terrible price.  Today it is $1836.  That's a 22% gain in one month.

Well played Sir!

I was going to say "too risky of move for someone my age" but I just checked and you're three years older than me.

I'm 91% S&P 500 Index Funds, 6% Amazon & my company's stock, 3% cash & silver, and 0% bonds, REIT's, etc.. (added later...93% equity in my home so that's effectively my bond position)

Honestly, I'm ahead of schedule in terms of retirement savings, I'm not that materialistic (I daily a 2019 Mazda CX-3 and as John Cougar sez' "I think I've got it so good") and I'm preparing my fifteen y/o daughter to manage the family estate when my wife and I are gone which means constructing a good risk / reward portfolio and sticking to the plan no matter what (COVID be damned).

She doesn't know it yet but she's going to inherit a E36 M3 ton of money as everything from my wife's side and everything from my side will probably just be passed straight through us to her and her sister (AKA, when our ships come in, they're just going to be left at the dock waiting for our kids).  I love having money, spending it just isn't my bag.

The point is, I'm thinking beyond my life and trying to instill the right investment behaviors in my children so I'd rather they didn't see me taking chances...steady as she goes and all of that.

In reply to AAZCD (Forum Supporter) :

China EV industry is E36 M3ting the bed *hard*.  Like taking a car on track, don't do it unless you can afford to go home without it.

Apparently I should have put the $ from selling our other house into tesla last year and now i'd have $700k

last time i sold gbtc i made 22%.  Waiting for it to go back down again.  Missed the last dip into the 10's after i sold at 12.86, now it's in the 14's.  Oops.  I've been doing pretty decent riding the waves.  

There is someting very wrong with the stock market right now.. it's not reflecting relaity.. not that it has to 100% but the fundamentals seem off