Realize that the factors mentioned such as the China effect are built into the current price.
From my prospective, the biggest factor that will determine GM’s fait is who wins the presidential election:
McCain = let capitalism run its course, if GM isn’t able to compete, so be it, let them fail.
Obama = spread the good and bad amongst everyone so there are no big winners or losers, make everyone contribute to bailing GM out.
Obama has three times as much money as McCain but he’s aggressively moving away from his hard left positions which earned him the DNC nomination which will both cost him votes and deny him the ability to attack McCain as a flip flopper…bottom line, 60/40 Obama which suggests buying GM to gain from the socialistic bail-out mentality we are likely to see in the coming years as once he wins, he’ll move back to his true hard left positions.
In a general sense, I recommend moving positions away from smart / well managed companies to ones beaten down as a result of their not being able to compete fairly as they will likely to be given unfair advantages in the near future.
BTW…I’m not down on Obama in any way nor am I interested in using this thread to make disparaging comments about him…it just is what it is…he thinks along socialistic lines…socialism isn’t a four letter word, it simply represents a different belief system than the one conservatives have.
I’ll be the first to say that Bush has made many huge mistakes and there’s no shortage of liberals that have been wonderful presidents. So again, I’m not down on Obama, I’m just realistically pointing out that he thinks along socialistic lines so we all need to make preparations for this such as adjusting our portfolios.