long term fuel costs?

Yes. Gas prices will rise.

And?...

Having a car is a luxury. You gotta pay to play.

"...you aren't in the oil business, you're in the oil shortage business..."

Or words to that effect, are some of the best lines from the movie "The Formula". George C. Scott accuses Marlon Brando of running his oil/coal/atomic power company businesses in a way that maximises profits...customers be darned.

I think what bothers me about fuel costs and oil costs in general is that once again a product is really no longer priced according to "supply and demand", but is now priced according to "what we think the supply and demand will be in the near future".

Of course, I also want to do not so nice things to folks who say we need to drill to avoid oil shortages and the resultant high(er) prices that result from importing oil. NO, we can drill and/or import a BILLION more barrels of oil a day, but as long as the number of refineries continues to DECREASE in this country, we will always have high prices.

that may be true, Integra.. but that is not the oil companies' fault. That is the people buying and trading on oil futures...

The futures market is a problem...should have to actually move oil(supply or refine) in order to play in that market really. However, I think there is another side to the equation; the gasoline market is about the closest that an american consumer ever comes to interacting with a true market where supply and demand are similar. Everything else we need on a regular basis has tons of supply and basically set prices. I used to sell gasoline and spent hours a day watching market fluctuations and making buying/pricing decisions. I did very well while still generally having some of the cheapest prices in town, but it took a lot of time and effort. I would say that it functions as it should most of the time.

mguar wrote: I've noted there have been several posts about Hybrids. That attention is caused by $4.00 gas prices.. Some love them others, hate them.. However sales so far this year have been 2 X last year and increasing.. No doubt Fords Plug in hybrid due out later this summer will increase those numbers. The price of fuel will always continue to vary but the $4.00 of today will soon morph into $5.00, $7.00 and beyond.. India with it's 1.1 billion, and China with it's 1.3 billion people will drive those numbers up but those are far from the only countries who's driving population is increasing dramatically. Third world countries are experiencing rush hour traffic jams the same as here in America..

How soon can you expect gas prices to hit $5.00 and $7.00/gallon? Where's your sources?

mguar wrote: The one thing I'm absolutely sure of is you won't see jacked up 4wheel drive trucks as common as in the past..

I can't wait till SUVs are a thing of the past

mguar wrote: The one thing I'm absolutely sure of is you won't see jacked up 4wheel drive trucks as common as in the past..

I am absolutely sure you are incorrect.

You obviously know very little about Southern culture.

People will give up their houses, wives, and children LONG before they give up their trucks.

integraguy wrote: Of course, I also want to do not so nice things to folks who say we need to drill to avoid oil shortages and the resultant high(er) prices that result from importing oil. NO, we can drill and/or import a BILLION more barrels of oil a day, but as long as the number of refineries continues to DECREASE in this country, we will always have high prices.

And besides, that's our retirement oil. We'll sell that when everyone else runs out.

mguar wrote: ... I drove through Northern North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming and that whole time saw fewer than 2 dozen cars on the freeways with me..

...uhm.... ok. This is surprising how?

aircooled wrote:

mguar wrote: ... I drove through Northern North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming and that whole time saw fewer than 2 dozen cars on the freeways with me..

...uhm.... ok. This is surprising how?

If I saw an empty stretch like that I'd want to hit top speed until it goes away.

GameboyRMH wrote:

aircooled wrote:

mguar wrote: ... I drove through Northern North Dakota, Montana, and Wyoming and that whole time saw fewer than 2 dozen cars on the freeways with me..

...uhm.... ok. This is surprising how?

If I saw an empty stretch like that I'd want to hit top speed until it goes away.

I wanted to do that so badly through Kansas.

In other news, gas prices have dropped around here. Still tons of jacked up 4X4 trucks, literally.

mguar wrote:

mad_machine wrote:

mguar wrote: The one thing I'm absolutely sure of is you won't see jacked up 4wheel drive trucks as common as in the past..

I can't wait till SUVs are a thing of the past

SUV's meet real needs.. Not every family can use a sports car. In addition I need a SUV for business.. The added seating is needed to bring customers to various job sites. While I use a medium sized SUV, I've carried a few customers who actually need a larger vehicle to be really comfortable.. I need the 4 wheel drive capability because we can get 2 feet of snow in a single snowfall and I live on the bottom of a hill.Six months of the year the 4 wheel drive proves to be valuable.. I also use it to carry my 150 pound Dog who wouldn't fit in a small car..In addition a SUV makes towing the race car possible where a small sedan would not have the capability. Finally While I'm average height I find myself unable to get into even some full sized sedans without banging my head on the roof.. I'm extremely long waist-ed. With normal legs I'd be 6'2" + tall. (If my legs were much shorter I'd just staple my shoes to my Butt). The point is SUV's are easier for older, less flexible, people to enter and exit from..

Good post.

Very true.

I'm 6'3" and I have driven compacts my whole life.

If you NEED a SUV than you'll NEED to pay to fill it up. Don't hijack OUR environment in pitiful attempts to lower your costs, because it won't make a difference.

That's what gets me about SUV/Truck owners. Rather than say "I choose to drive a large vehicle and I understand that my vote cannot lower gas prices" folks just say "those damn hippies are keepin my gas prices high, well my truck needs cheaper gas!"

This seems like a decent history/analysis of oil/gas prices

Most people "need" an SUV because of lifestyle/personal choices, not because a more efficient alternate couldn't do the job - how many SUVs are on the road because someone doesn't want to live with the image of a minivan? - but those vans could easily carry a 150lb dog, more passengers, decent entry height and with proper tires negotiate snow effectively and get better fuel mileage. For that matter, how often is the vehicle full or used at more than a fraction of its capabilities. And yes, I have a v8 SUV to occasionally tow a car or haul a couple of dogs - but it has dropped out of commuter status - just the difference in mileage/gas savings in a year has paid for my 318ti. When I actually need 4wd while towing 7,000 lbs in the snow, it's there, ready to roll and I can fork over the 7/gal. or whatever it is (I've needed that combo exactly once in the 5 years I've owned it).

PHeller wrote: If you NEED a SUV than you'll NEED to pay to fill it up. Don't hijack OUR environment in pitiful attempts to lower your costs, because it won't make a difference. That's what gets me about SUV/Truck owners. Rather than say "I choose to drive a large vehicle and I understand that my vote cannot lower gas prices" folks just say "those damn hippies are keepin my gas prices high, well my truck needs cheaper gas!"

And I'll add they feel that way because they are living at the limit of, or beyond their means.

I drive a new mid-size, 4x4 truck as a DD and the occasional times I need a bed to haul stuff. I burn about $60/wk on fuel.

Gas could double overnight, that would only mean we go out 2x less a month for a nice dinner. It wouldn't affect my ability to put money in savings, retirement or go on vacation.

But we also bought a small house, don't have a $160/month for cable bill, etc.

mguar wrote: There is already $5.00 a gallon gas at the docks on my lake.. Race gas is well above those numbers already..

5 gallons of C16: $90.

Slightly more than $5/gallon

i NEED to tow 5,000 on a regular basis, carry 4x8 sheets of stuff and keep them dry, carry a load of tools, and carry a baby seat on top of everything else and occasionally flip the other rear seat up for passengers. and i need to not get stuck pulling 5000# in the snow on a sloped driveway.

so i have a 4x4 suburban. it gets 2x the mileage as my dually that was my daily work truck until i started doing smaller jobs and not dragging a rolling shop behind me every day. i tried doing the job with a small blazer, didn't work.

gas goes up, my prices go up.

if i could do all that with anything else i would, but i can't. i'm probably in the minority of SUV owners, most of them just cart kids to soccer practice or need that 400hp 6500lb status symbol. if at all possible i do park the suburban and drive my sonoma, but it is ugly so i do not take it to customer's houses as i prefer to look professional, and i like not having the baby seat in the front.

in this case the answer is not miata. nor is it miata with a harbor freight trailer.

at one point i did the math for my dad to keep his suburban or to get a new hhr for mileage. at $3/gal it would have taken i believe 13 years to pay for the new car in fuel savings.

mguar wrote: However as my first post said with 1.4 billion in China, 1.1 Billion in India plus the general increase in world wide traffic it will be sooner rather than later..

Hi mguar,

Actually, your first post had China at 1.3 billion and India at 1.1 billion.

Obviously a big, big night for 100 million Chinese couples nine months ago.

PHeller wrote: If you NEED a SUV than you'll NEED to pay to fill it up. Don't hijack OUR environment in pitiful attempts to lower your costs, because it won't make a difference. That's what gets me about SUV/Truck owners. Rather than say "I choose to drive a large vehicle and I understand that my vote cannot lower gas prices" folks just say "those damn hippies are keepin my gas prices high, well my truck needs cheaper gas!"

This post was not relevant.

Mguar posted the positives of SUV's in direct response to mad_machine's statement that he was looking forward to SUV's being a thing of the past.

It had NOTHING to do with lowering gas costs to the user, or hijacking YOUR environment.

In reply to oldtin:

Minivans do not carry more passengers than an SUV. The Chevy Suburban has seating up to 9 passengers. Minivans generally carry 7. They also DO NOT necessarily get better fuel economy. I have a friend with a diesel Excursion that gets 28 mpg on a regular basis around town. I don't know many minivans that make that much. Mine gets around 22 mpg. Most minivans are 24-25 mpg. Chevy Suburban is rated for 21 mpg (is that REALLY so much different?) Unless you choose a V-6- then the Toyota Sienna is rated for 21 mpg. Mazda 5? Sure. 28 mpg, but it only seats 6 (and has ZERO cargo space- guess I could strap a kid to the roof with the suitcases...)

I know several families who can NOT fit in a minivan. Their choice is an SUV, a 15 passenger van, or a schoolbus. The SUV is the SMALLEST and most economical of those choices. Why don't we applaud them for their enviromentally wise decisions? (I know... somebody's gonna say they are killing the planet by overpopulating)

We had an SUV at one point. With 7 members of our family, we could have chosen to drive a minivan. Ever try to fit the cargo for 7 people in the back of a minivan?

I agree with the general sentiment that there are many people who drive SUV's who don't need to. However there are an awful lot of people who over react and try to make SUV ownership the poster child for all things evil on the planet, which is simply not true.

Mr. Mguar did a good job outlining some of the appropriate uses for an SUV. SUV hate is unnecessary.

My boss drives a Toyota Land Cruiser with a V8.

Beautiful car. I'll bet many of you would sell your first born to own one.

Seats 7. EPA rating is 18 mpg.

mguar wrote:

92CelicaHalfTrac wrote:

mguar wrote: I've noted there have been several posts about Hybrids. That attention is caused by $4.00 gas prices.. Some love them others, hate them.. However sales so far this year have been 2 X last year and increasing.. No doubt Fords Plug in hybrid due out later this summer will increase those numbers. The price of fuel will always continue to vary but the $4.00 of today will soon morph into $5.00, $7.00 and beyond.. India with it's 1.1 billion, and China with it's 1.3 billion people will drive those numbers up but those are far from the only countries who's driving population is increasing dramatically. Third world countries are experiencing rush hour traffic jams the same as here in America..

How soon can you expect gas prices to hit $5.00 and $7.00/gallon? Where's your sources?

That question lacks thought or definition; There is already $5.00 a gallon gas at the docks on my lake.. Race gas is well above those numbers already.. May I assume you are asking about general pricing? For say 87 octane gas? Well, if anyone could give you that exact answer, they'd keep it to themselves and buy oil futures.. However as my first post said with 1.4 billion in China, 1.1 Billion in India plus the general increase in world wide traffic it will be sooner rather than later..

I'm asking about whatever pricing you were talking about that would be hitting $5.00 to $7.00 and beyond a gallon soon. I was responding to you... so... what were YOU talking about?

92CelicaHalfTrac wrote:

mguar wrote:

92CelicaHalfTrac wrote:

mguar wrote: I've noted there have been several posts about Hybrids. That attention is caused by $4.00 gas prices.. Some love them others, hate them.. However sales so far this year have been 2 X last year and increasing.. No doubt Fords Plug in hybrid due out later this summer will increase those numbers. The price of fuel will always continue to vary but the $4.00 of today will soon morph into $5.00, $7.00 and beyond.. India with it's 1.1 billion, and China with it's 1.3 billion people will drive those numbers up but those are far from the only countries who's driving population is increasing dramatically. Third world countries are experiencing rush hour traffic jams the same as here in America..

How soon can you expect gas prices to hit $5.00 and $7.00/gallon? Where's your sources?

That question lacks thought or definition; There is already $5.00 a gallon gas at the docks on my lake.. Race gas is well above those numbers already.. May I assume you are asking about general pricing? For say 87 octane gas? Well, if anyone could give you that exact answer, they'd keep it to themselves and buy oil futures.. However as my first post said with 1.4 billion in China, 1.1 Billion in India plus the general increase in world wide traffic it will be sooner rather than later..

I'm asking about whatever pricing you were talking about that would be hitting $5.00 to $7.00 and beyond a gallon soon. I was responding to you... so... what were YOU talking about?

If the Iranians close the Strait of Hormuz economists think you'll get to see $8/gal. this summer