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barefootskater (Shaun)
barefootskater (Shaun) UberDork
11/21/20 1:51 p.m.

In reply to Snowdoggie :

Kind of just a mountain around flagstaff. It is pretty though. More and better skiing a few hours north in UT but little in the way of Motorsports. Unless you like dirt bikes and off roading.  

STM317
STM317 UberDork
11/22/20 11:23 a.m.

Some interesting data about where people are moving and where/what's being built

"Data from the postal service on address changes and LinkedIn show an accelerated outflow from New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Portland since the onset of the pandemic.

Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Dallas, Austin, Charlotte, Tampa, Nashville and Jacksonville have been among the fastest growing markets on the receiving end. Just over 80% of all single-family homes built over the past year have been in South or West, which means that construction can continue at a much higher pace during the winter months than in prior years."

 

And where we are relative to history (interesting how housing starts almost always begin their decline 6+ months before a recession):

pheller
pheller UltimaDork
11/23/20 9:38 a.m.
barefootskater (Shaun) said:

In reply to Snowdoggie :

Kind of just a mountain around flagstaff. It is pretty though. More and better skiing a few hours north in UT but little in the way of Motorsports. Unless you like dirt bikes and off roading.  

Yep. Just one mountain. And it's always packed because its the only mountain easily accessible from Phoenix. 

There is another out in Show Low called Sunrise Ski Resort. It's smaller and not as much vert. 

I didn't move to AZ for skiing, so despite the fact that we get some real nice powder days, I've never been to Snowbowl in 6 years I've been here. 

pheller
pheller UltimaDork
11/23/20 9:42 a.m.
STM317 said:

And where we are relative to history (interesting how housing starts almost always begin their decline 6+ months before a recession):

I swear that the idea that housing starts are related to recessions is no longer a thing. 

I would almost guarantee that the people buying homes right now either A) aren't tied to a specific job market or B) are boomers who are retiring and moving to warmer states. 

By the time the vaccine hits, this recession will have only impacted certain sectors, and those sectors aren't filled with people buying homes. 

RossD
RossD MegaDork
11/23/20 10:25 a.m.

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
11/23/20 10:55 a.m.

Ours is up about 18% in 3 years, which is unusual for this part of the country. 

Oklahoma doesn't really see the boom/bust cycle that bigger markets have to deal with. It's usually just pretty steady.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/23/20 11:01 a.m.
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

ultraclyde (Forum Supporter)
ultraclyde (Forum Supporter) UltimaDork
11/23/20 11:10 a.m.

we bought our place 20 years ago. Value has been dead steady until about a year ago. Now we're up 25%.  Our market has always been pretty stable being in a medium sized town with an air base. No real boom and bust cycle, the base keeps demand pretty consistent. The market here has gotten hot though. I have a young coworker looking for a first house. They've made appointments to see 2 different houses that sold before they could go see them - in the same week they went on market. He's decided to wait another year and see what it's like.

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/23/20 4:19 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

 

Teach me your ways lol

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/23/20 4:31 p.m.

In reply to yupididit :

I did what RossD suggested and went to www.Zillow.com 

 

devil

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/23/20 4:40 p.m.

In reply to mr2s2000elise :

You know what I mean lol

RossD
RossD MegaDork
11/23/20 5:29 p.m.
yupididit said:
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

 

Teach me your ways lol

Dont plan on moving out of the house unless we are invalids.

i.e. We bought our forever home.

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/23/20 7:27 p.m.
RossD said:
yupididit said:
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

 

Teach me your ways lol

Dont plan on moving out of the house unless we are invalids.

i.e. We bought our forever home.

 

Not an option for me lol 

 

But, I was referring to buying multiple houses this year. In California too. Nice! 

Purple Frog (Forum Supporter)
Purple Frog (Forum Supporter) Reader
11/23/20 9:20 p.m.

From another perspective...

Bought a distressed house with acreage in a rural area in March.  Spent 4 months doing a total remodel (~$100K)  Sold for a pretty large ROI after taxes.  Buyer actually got a "deal".

Florida real estate, city folks fleeing Covid, and they being able to work at home =  successful business model.

OBTW, in the charts above much of that growth in multifamily housing is being built close to large southern university campuses.  Just saying.  Just drive around FSU, UofF, USF, Clemson, UNC, Uof G, Bama...

RX Reven'
RX Reven' SuperDork
11/23/20 10:12 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

i.e. We bought our forever home.

My motto is different - no forever homes, no forever cars, no forever wives. 

My conscious thought was "that's pretty dark" but then my visceral inner voice whispered "but it's true".

Case in point...

I took my eldest daughter to the local cemetery today to practice driving but rather than using my daily (CX-3) we used my toy (super clean 1983 RX-7 GSL).  She drove it ridiculously slowly, I called her on it and she said "I know how much you love this car so if I mess it up, you might be permanently mad at me".

Well, today is my youngest daughters 13th Birthday and a few hours after the cemetery practice session we did a COVID-19 compliant movie night for her and her friends in our open garage resulting in the RX-7 being parked on the driveway.  Some guy driving by spots it, pulls over, and cold calls interest in buying the car.  To everyone's amazement, I went into a sincere negotiation with him.  Why was everyone so surprised...I do love the car but offer me enough money and I'll let it go.

I bought it three years ago for $4,700 and it's FMV at the time was probably about $3,500...I didn't care, I've got 525K miles of experience with rotary engines, I could tell that this one was brilliant; just get it home.

Anyway, back to real estate, I just wanted to chime in saying there is much truth to mr2s2000elise's point of view despite it being an uncomfortable realization for many including myself.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
11/23/20 10:35 p.m.

I suppose I could agree with that.  While I have no plans to move from my current home, should my financial or personal situations change moving isn't out of the question.  For one, I'd really like to travel for long stretches at a time, but I'm not 100% sure how to make that practical while still maintaining a house and its required upkeep.  I suppose in a perfect world, I'd live in a condo and have a separate shop in an industrial area where in both cases any outside maintenance wouldn't be my concern.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/23/20 11:04 p.m.
RX Reven' said:
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

i.e. We bought our forever home.

My motto is different - no forever homes, no forever cars, no forever wives. 

My conscious thought was "that's pretty dark" but then my visceral inner voice whispered "but it's true".

 

Anyway, back to real estate, I just wanted to chime in saying there is much truth to mr2s2000elise's point of view despite it being an uncomfortable realization for many including myself.

Hard truths are often uncomfortable - if we actually admit it to ourselves. Hope all is well with you, my friend.

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
11/23/20 11:28 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

I'm not sure I accept that All  of the houses in a 45 miles radius.  I'm sure some have depreciated significantly. Due to damage, neglect, or just bad  remodeling.   Also are all the houses in that radius in the same school district, have equal access to "things"  aren't in the "wrong  neighborhood" etc. 

In the lakeshore community I live in some areas have exceeded that while some are  dramatically behind. And that is just in a 15 mile radius. 

nutherjrfan
nutherjrfan UberDork
11/24/20 2:28 a.m.

Ron White is selling his LA home.

There's a decent video of him doing a walk through on YouTube.

Right at the end of the video he stated his motivation was that he didn't know if he could keep making money so he was letting it go.

Heck I'll post it for the Ron White fans.

 

Rons
Rons Reader
11/24/20 11:13 a.m.

In reply to RossD :

Given you're in your forever home there are ways to future proof it. Can stairs be eliminated? Is there a bathroom with an accessible shower? Can you add an elevator? I ask these questions from talking to my sister - she is a Community Care Worker for Vancouver Coastal Health and when a residence is properly set up many people are able to age in place

RossD
RossD MegaDork
11/24/20 11:42 a.m.

In reply to Rons :

We have a 100 year old four square two story farm house so no getting away with steps completely. 

We are currently adding an ADA shower on the first floor with a toilet that is also accessible. It will have a connected guest bedroom. (Bathroom will have two doors.) Laundry is also in there. The is also the old front door of the house in the in-law suite as we call it. If we need, we can put a ramp up to the porch there as it would just cost us some lawn.

We are adding blocking in the walls for grab bars at toilets and showers. We are planning a few things that would have to be reworked if someone is in poor health.

Our current bedroom is upstairs by the kids and we are redoing that as well.

We also are planning to redo an outbuilding as an in-law cabin. It probably will never be used as such so maybe it will the back from college apartment. Or AirBnB. We just dont want it to fall over.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/24/20 12:40 p.m.
frenchyd said:
mr2s2000elise said:
RossD said:

In less than 4 years, our 'zillow estimate' is up 42%!

Looked through numbers on our properties - looking at prices 4 years ago to now increase in "Zillow," using your metrics is 38-46% 

 

* all properties in a 45 mile radius* 

 

 

of the properties we bought in February of this year there is 11% increase 

I'm not sure I accept that All  of the houses in a 45 miles radius.  I'm sure some have depreciated significantly. Due to damage, neglect, or just bad  remodeling.   Also are all the houses in that radius in the same school district, have equal access to "things"  aren't in the "wrong  neighborhood" etc. 

In the lakeshore community I live in some areas have exceeded that while some are  dramatically behind. And that is just in a 15 mile radius. 


 

You can choose to accept whatever you want. If you come out to here - be happy to take you to each property. None are "damaged, neglected, or bad renovation" 

all school are 10/10 with the top API scores. I don't buy property in "wrong neighborhoods" 

properties  have not "depreciated significantly" 

 

the area I am speaking of - and the area you are speaking of aren't really comparable. I have provided links in this thread in the areas I am talking about - to show the appreciation 

 

what you choose to believe a your prerogative. People are not paying $3800 rent a month for substandard housing in substandard school districts - locally speaking 


** I have had 3 GRM members here meet me at few different properties to pick up cars/parts, and they can certainly attest to it** 

 

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
11/24/20 2:34 p.m.

In reply to mr2s2000elise :

I would expect that someone like yourself who owns a number of properties would keep regular track of area property values.  wink

While I will occasionally look at property values (although Zillow appears to be a rough estimate at best) and asking prices for houses for sale near me, I would be no means consider myself to even have an enthusiast level of knowledge on the subject of property values.  Besides, if I really want to know about it, I have friends who do real estate for a living.

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/24/20 2:56 p.m.

In reply to mr2s2000elise :

I think Frenchy misunderstood it as "all houses in a 45 mile radius" instead of as "all of YOUR properties are in a 45 mile radius of each other". 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
11/24/20 3:02 p.m.

In reply to yupididit :

Yes I did.  I apologize. I was thinking you said all properties. 
Not all my properties. 

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