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11GTCS
11GTCS HalfDork
11/18/20 5:56 p.m.

Yup, still crazy here in eastern MA.   Another 1,300 sq.ft. ranch around the corner from us is under agreement.  It’s on a much busier street, original 1962 kitchen (cabinets painted, original mocha tile backsplash like ours was, newer counters and tiled floor), one bath that looks like it’s a 20 + year old renovation, 1/2 acre lot, no garage.    Listed at $399,500 and I bet it sold for more.   Crazy indeed.     I guess on the plus side our equity keeps growing.  

STM317
STM317 UberDork
11/18/20 7:42 p.m.

House across the street had a sign in the yard last Thursday evening and listed Friday morning. They had a parade of people all day Friday and early Saturday morning. It was pretty obvious that they had an offer in place because the parade just stopped in the middle of the day Saturday. A couple of stragglers on Sunday, but they seemed more like tire kickers just stopping to look with no realtor. There was an inspector there this afternoon, so whoever had the winning offer seems to be moving quickly. It will be interesting to see how much over listing it sells for.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/19/20 10:25 a.m.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Stevenson-Ranch/25436-Shelley-Pl-91381/home/5999693

 

I bought the house across from this last month. Closed Oct 16th, rented it Nov 1, to a Physician.  Ex owners moved to Atlanta after 13 years . Movie editing business. We did a no realtor deal - principal to principal transfer, and saved a bunch. 

After I closed mine - guy across the streets puts his up for sale. 

Sold in 5 days, $56,000 over asking. 

 

This guy sold his $90,000 over asking.  He made $190,000 in 24 months for just living in the house. If you subtract real estate costs (lots of under the table deals happening), thats still $130,000 in 24 months. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta-Montrose/4911-Briggs-Ave-91214/home/7243336

 

dropstep
dropstep UberDork
11/19/20 11:23 a.m.

In reply to docwyte :

When I was laid off and my wife was sick I managed to pay all of our bills for minimum wage. But we bought bottom of the market 2012, in a very cheap town and don't carry any debt other then. The hard part was food, but I made some side jobs work for that. 
 

so it is possible in a cheap place like this, before the housing market went nuts anyway.

Placemotorsports
Placemotorsports Reader
11/19/20 12:00 p.m.

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

pheller
pheller UltimaDork
11/19/20 12:40 p.m.

I'd argue that we may see dips in some markets, but some others not so much.

 

Remember that the fast majority of the countries highest priced housing is in more progressive areas with more tech jobs. I know lots of companies who are adapting well to a remote workforce, even in industries I would have not previous pinned as being able to do so. I imagine the feds will go on a huge hiring spree with the new administration, potentially keeping people in their homes within Fed-heavy cities. 

 

Manufacturing jobs and jobs that require lots of people to be side by side in close proximity are certainly at risk, but I'd bet the majority of those jobs are in the south, midwest, and rural areas of the country that already have lower priced housing markets. 

One worry I have is that here again - at the lowest levels of the economy is a shift where underpaid workers will lose their jobs either due to COVID illness or COVID restrictions, and their homes will be bought up by investors who in turn increase rents. 

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie HalfDork
11/19/20 1:23 p.m.
mr2s2000elise said:

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Stevenson-Ranch/25436-Shelley-Pl-91381/home/5999693

 

I bought the house across from this last month. Closed Oct 16th, rented it Nov 1, to a Physician.  Ex owners moved to Atlanta after 13 years . Movie editing business. We did a no realtor deal - principal to principal transfer, and saved a bunch. 

After I closed mine - guy across the streets puts his up for sale. 

Sold in 5 days, $56,000 over asking. 

 

This guy sold his $90,000 over asking.  He made $190,000 in 24 months for just living in the house. If you subtract real estate costs (lots of under the table deals happening), thats still $130,000 in 24 months. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/La-Crescenta-Montrose/4911-Briggs-Ave-91214/home/7243336

 

The one in La Crecenta is just on the other side of the mountain from where my college roommate lived in North Glendale. I know the area well. 

spitfirebill
spitfirebill MegaDork
11/19/20 8:39 p.m.
Placemotorsports said:

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

I'm wondering the same thing.  They are building new subdivisions here and throwing up homes like crazy.  The cheaper homes are $200k+ and the regular homes are $300k+.  $300k used to buy you a mansion here.  

STM317
STM317 UberDork
11/19/20 8:57 p.m.
Placemotorsports said:

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

Why would somebody let the bank foreclose rather than just selling their house in a hot market? The people most impacted by all of the crap this year have generally been low wage workers that aren't likely to have been in the market for homes anyway. If they do own a home and can't make the payment, just list it for traditional sale and let the ensuing bidding war fix your problem. I don't see enough of a widespread problem to cause significant price disruptions. Especially with interest rates at record lows, which gives buyers larger price ranges to work with. 

I suppose you could see a bunch of rentals hit the market if landlords can't float the payment or don't want to be on the hook for non-paying tenants, but in general I think The only way we see the market cool a bunch is if there are widespread layoffs in white collar jobs. Those are the buyers driving up prices, and those are the people that have been pretty unscathed thus far.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/19/20 9:39 p.m.

In reply to STM317 :

Well said. agree 100%

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
11/20/20 8:51 a.m.
STM317 said:
Placemotorsports said:

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

Why would somebody let the bank foreclose rather than just selling their house in a hot market? The people most impacted by all of the crap this year have generally been low wage workers that aren't likely to have been in the market for homes anyway. If they do own a home and can't make the payment, just list it for traditional sale and let the ensuing bidding war fix your problem. I don't see enough of a widespread problem to cause significant price disruptions. Especially with interest rates at record lows, which gives buyers larger price ranges to work with. 

I suppose you could see a bunch of rentals hit the market if landlords can't float the payment or don't want to be on the hook for non-paying tenants, but in general I think The only way we see the market cool a bunch is if there are widespread layoffs in white collar jobs. Those are the buyers driving up prices, and those are the people that have been pretty unscathed thus far.

I agree. Unless people are buying on 5/1 ARMs again or, is as usual, buying at the very upper limit of what the banks will lend them. Where even a 1 day per paycheck furlough means 10% less income could put you in trouble. Even though this hasn't really impacted the middle-class and higher yet, I suspect we are going to feel at least some pain in the next year or two from all this. Whether it's increased taxes or no raises combined with higher inflation as they try to inflate our way out of the massive debt we have incurred lowering our buying power. 

I know people who take home far less than us who have much more expensive homes. Now, of course, they could have saved longer for a downpayment, not have a car habit, etc.  

Our mortgage is 16% of our take home and I still don't like that it's that high, where as some people spend as much as 40% or more of their take home on their mortgage.

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/20/20 10:06 a.m.

In reply to z31maniac :

Having done 4 RE deals between Feb and Oct, I can tell you here, lending criteria has been extremely tight on this runup. 

 

For us SALT has had the most negative impact last few years. However, manipulation of lots of K-1, aggressive depreciation, and easy lending in other aspects, have really helped us in this climate. 

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/20/20 10:11 a.m.
z31maniac said:
STM317 said:
Placemotorsports said:

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

Why would somebody let the bank foreclose rather than just selling their house in a hot market? The people most impacted by all of the crap this year have generally been low wage workers that aren't likely to have been in the market for homes anyway. If they do own a home and can't make the payment, just list it for traditional sale and let the ensuing bidding war fix your problem. I don't see enough of a widespread problem to cause significant price disruptions. Especially with interest rates at record lows, which gives buyers larger price ranges to work with. 

I suppose you could see a bunch of rentals hit the market if landlords can't float the payment or don't want to be on the hook for non-paying tenants, but in general I think The only way we see the market cool a bunch is if there are widespread layoffs in white collar jobs. Those are the buyers driving up prices, and those are the people that have been pretty unscathed thus far.

Our mortgage is 16% of our take home and I still don't like that it's that high, where as some people spend as much as 40% or more of their take home on their mortgage.

 

I wonder what those % look like in high cost of living areas.

yupididit
yupididit PowerDork
11/20/20 10:14 a.m.
mr2s2000elise said:

In reply to z31maniac :

Having done 4 RE deals between Feb and Oct...

 

surprise

 

Curtis73 (Forum Supporter)
Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
11/20/20 10:15 a.m.

I bought my house three years ago for $87k.  Neighbor directly across the street just put their smaller, older, less-nice house on the market for $132k a couple days ago.  Bidding war ensued and it's currently pending for $135k.  I could pretty easily sell my house right now for 50% more than I paid three years ago... but I would have to by an equally-inflated house to move into.

Placemotorsports
Placemotorsports Reader
11/20/20 10:23 a.m.

Some lenders locally where I am are 6 months out on refinacing.  Pretty insane

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
11/20/20 10:23 a.m.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I'm in the same boat. While I could sell my house for a tidy sum I don't really have anywhere to go.  Nor would I be able to pay cash for someplace I might want to move to. And I don't really want to start a new mortgage at 50 when I've been without one for 7 years.  So my plan is to stay put and renovate what I have.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie HalfDork
11/20/20 10:37 a.m.

In reply to Ian F (Forum Supporter) :

Exactly. I can sell my house for four times what I paid for it now as the flippers who call me on the phone every week keep reminding me. But the thing is that rent is stupid expensive around here and apartments don't take large dogs, motorhomes and my other collection of vehicles. Buying another house would cost more than I could get for mine and probably involve a bidding war with realtors, flippers and investors from other countries. I could move to a place where I can't find a job and run through what I made selling my house in a couple years, or I could live in a cardboard box and sell bottled water to crackheads. 

I have no place to go. The market here is insane. This economy is insane. 

pheller
pheller UltimaDork
11/20/20 10:56 a.m.

Tell me if I'm wrong:

 

Around where I am (small mountain town in the west): 

 

You can sell your current house at a profit, even only after a short stint. Minor updates make big changes in the speed of sale. 

 

Options:

1) move into a different house of similar size and age, but that likely need updates.

2) move to a cheaper area (which for some might be nice with more remote-work options, but I couldn't imagine moving kids further away from family friends neighborhoods.

3) pay more for a newer house with no land. 

I don't need a huge lot, but I do need space for all my activities. I like to keep a vegetable garden, like my daugher to play outside in the yard, like space for bikes, space for tools, space for vehicles, potentially space for an RV or trailer. 

The only way I could go to a smaller lot was if A) the garage was twice the size of my current 2-car or B) I had an off-site workshop/storage area.

I think considering the size of my house (2300sqft - including garage) and lot (7400sqft) I'm living pretty efficiently considering my lifestyle choices.  I have a hard time seeing spending more money for less space, when I could remodel my current house to use space more efficiently.

 

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/20/20 10:57 a.m.
Snowdoggie said:

 

 live in a cardboard box and sell bottled water to crackheads. 

 

What is the ROI on that?

Cardbox would be hard. We had a frigid 67F all night here. Had the heater going.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie HalfDork
11/20/20 11:15 a.m.
mr2s2000elise said:
Snowdoggie said:

 

 live in a cardboard box and sell bottled water to crackheads. 

 

What is the ROI on that?

Cardbox would be hard. We had a frigid 67F all night here. Had the heater going.

Probably pretty good. Them crackheads get thirsty and can't count their change. Dallas is having a warm winter this year. A higher end WalMart sleeping bag would be enough through January. 

mr2s2000elise
mr2s2000elise UltraDork
11/20/20 11:19 a.m.
Snowdoggie said:
mr2s2000elise said:
Snowdoggie said:

 

 live in a cardboard box and sell bottled water to crackheads. 

 

What is the ROI on that?

Cardbox would be hard. We had a frigid 67F all night here. Had the heater going.

Probably pretty good. Them crackheads get thirsty and can't count their change. Dallas is having a warm winter this year. A higher end WalMart sleeping bag would be enough through January. 

Need a partner for the business? cheeky I could probably bum one month stay per relative in Dallas, between Keller, Irving, and Plano. 6 houses = 6 months free rent. All EX devilcalifornians with mansions and no people to fill them witih. 

 

 

Back to more relevant topic:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/20/economy/economy-coronavirus-jpmorgan/index.html

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie HalfDork
11/20/20 11:27 a.m.

You know it is strange. The homeless camps in East Dallas actually have better tents than the military surplus crap we had when I was a boy scout in the 70s. I have a fully enclosed tent I bought at WalMart for $50 that I use for motorcycle camping that fits in a saddlebag and is plenty warm for Texas winters. It has survived several rather nasty lightning storms after other campers packed up their tents and went home. REI has stuff that fits into backpacks and is warm enough for dogsled camping. 

Camping gear has improved a lot in the last few years. 

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
11/20/20 11:29 a.m.
yupididit said:
z31maniac said:
STM317 said:
Placemotorsports said:

Foreclosures will run rampid in the upcoming months, you'll see a big swing in home prices

Why would somebody let the bank foreclose rather than just selling their house in a hot market? The people most impacted by all of the crap this year have generally been low wage workers that aren't likely to have been in the market for homes anyway. If they do own a home and can't make the payment, just list it for traditional sale and let the ensuing bidding war fix your problem. I don't see enough of a widespread problem to cause significant price disruptions. Especially with interest rates at record lows, which gives buyers larger price ranges to work with. 

I suppose you could see a bunch of rentals hit the market if landlords can't float the payment or don't want to be on the hook for non-paying tenants, but in general I think The only way we see the market cool a bunch is if there are widespread layoffs in white collar jobs. Those are the buyers driving up prices, and those are the people that have been pretty unscathed thus far.

Our mortgage is 16% of our take home and I still don't like that it's that high, where as some people spend as much as 40% or more of their take home on their mortgage.

 

I wonder what those % look like in high cost of living areas.

Insanity I suspect. It's one of the reasons that makes it very difficult for me to want to move out of Oklahoma, even though there are things I don't like about this state, but I don't want to flounder my own thread so I'll leave it at that.

Sure, I could make more in other parts of the country.......but the entire raise and more would just go to the increased price of housing, and a bigger % of my income would go to it. So it's hard to justify. 

chandler
chandler UltimaDork
11/20/20 11:44 a.m.

I built my house and moved in in August, refinanced this week due to the crazy low rates and it appraised for $40,000 more than four months ago. Same appraiser, same company. No other changes. Insanity 

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