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Login to post Forums » Off-topic discussion » The Future of Petroleum?

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June 2, 2008 7:28 p.m. HoonerZX3 None

Well, we're all seeing the effects of supply and demand coupled with a very weak dollar - high gasoline prices. So, where does it go from here? In the 70s there was a gas crisis but things turned around and we ended up with a huge gas-guzzling age again. Will it happen again?

What's different from the 70s? Well, India and China are creating huge demands with a burgeoning middle class that didn't exist before. The countries that produce oil are largely hostile towards the west. Finally, the environmental impact of burning fossil fuels wasn't known until fairly recently.

So, what will the future bring? Better fuel economy for sure. But what else? Will owning a Mustang or a GTO be only for the wealthy? Will my Ford Focus' 2.0 liter engine be considered huge? Will the US finally tap the oil we have in Alaska?

As far as cars go - what should an enthusiast do? I'm tempted to buy a GTO as a second car because I may not be able to afford to drive one at all soon. With the high gas prices their prices are plummeting. I think you can get an '04 for about 15K at this point. OR should I just throw in the towel and get a Honda Fit or some such. Nice cars, but I don't think I'm quite ready for that little ooomph.

So tell me, what does the future look like in the world of internal combustion?
June 2, 2008 7:47 p.m. ignorant UltraDork

I hedged my bets a year ago and bought a 96 civic hatch. The 4x4 truck just wasn't practical. There will be some good stuff coming down the road, alot of Algae to oil stuff going on now. These guys, http://www.greenfuelonline.com/ , are particularly interesting. Their process uses the waste heat and CO2 exhaust from existing power plants to generate oil and biodiesel. There is a company from Cali that can make 91 octane from Algae. So, solutions are coming, just probably not fast enough for most folks.

http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2008/05/30/montrealclimatexch.html <--- Canada just started a Carbon exchange. Their recent laws which cap CO2 exhaust and allow people to trade for overages with folks who produce under their limit, is creating new business. Admitiedly there were only 3 deals on opening day. So, It's slow.

Liebermann-Warner would create the same sort of Cap and Trade here in the US. It's stalled and currently bloated like crazy, but all three canidates are talking about cap and trade. It's going to happen in the US.

So, Internal combustion will be around short term and then change slightly, but I there are so many interesting things on the horizion, I doubt IC engines will go away any time soon.
June 2, 2008 7:48 p.m. ignorant UltraDork

http://earth2tech.com/2008/03/27/15-algae-startups-bringing-pond-scum-to-fuel-tanks/ <-- one more cool link...
June 2, 2008 8:09 p.m. gamby UltraDork

HoonerZX3 wrote: So, what will the future bring?

Algae-based biodiesel

Plant-based biodiesel (read up on the Jatropha plant--fascinating)

Cellulosic ethanol

Plug-in hybrids--and if solar cells ever become more accessible--charging/supplementing the charge w/ free and renewable energy via a solar-powered charging station/solar-cells on the house.

SO many possibilities. All of them exciting to me.
June 2, 2008 9:24 p.m. mad_machine SuperDork

it's all very exciting. Perhaps too interesting a time for comfort, but still pretty neat stuff is being developed
June 2, 2008 9:31 p.m. Chris_V SuperDork

Green gasoline: http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news4.8.08d.html

switchgrass, poplar trees, even sawdust can be used to make it. Chemically pretty much identical to gasoline, and takes very little energy to make.

""Green gasoline is an attractive alternative to bioethanol since it can be used in existing engines and does not incur the 30 percent gas mileage penalty of ethanol-based flex fuel," said John Regalbuto, who directs the Catalysis and Biocatalysis Program at NSF and supported this research.

"In theory it requires much less energy to make than ethanol, giving it a smaller carbon footprint and making it cheaper to produce," Regalbuto said. "Making it from cellulose sources such as switchgrass or poplar trees grown as energy crops, or forest or agricultural residues such as wood chips or corn stover, solves the lifecycle greenhouse gas problem that has recently surfaced with corn ethanol and soy biodiesel."

"Huber's new process for the direct conversion of cellulose to gasoline aromatics is at the leading edge of the new "Green Gasoline" alternate energy paradigm that NSF, along with other federal agencies, is helping to promote," states Regalbuto.

Not only is the method a compact way to treat a great deal of biomass in a short time, Regalbuto emphasized that the process, in principle, does not require any external energy. "In fact, from the extra heat that will be released, you can generate electricity in addition to the biofuel," he said. "There will not be just a small carbon footprint for the process; by recovering heat and generating electricity, there won't be any footprint.""
June 2, 2008 10:02 p.m. Chris_V SuperDork

HoonerZX3 wrote: Well, we're all seeing the effects of supply and demand coupled with a very weak dollar - high gasoline prices.

What's different from the 70s? Well, India and China are creating huge demands with a burgeoning middle class that didn't exist before.

The problem is that this time around, demand increase is not coming from the sources you think it is. most western nations are reducing demand, and as far as demand vs supply, if China and India increased radically, it only counters the demand reduction from the US. But, according to the Joint Oil Data Initiative, consumption and supply have remained relatively constant for the last 5-7 years worldwide, even in China (which actually reduced oil imports over the last few months) So what IS causing the price runup? Artificial demand. A couple years ago, large investment firms began to invest heavily in oil futures. Buying oil futures is considered consumer demand, even though no one has used the oil yet. By investing heavily, the demand is artificially inflated, and the price goes up. The price going up entices others to invest in the futures, in order to cash in on the rising price. This is a vicious cycle that causes a HUGE runup in price. Over the last couple years a couple trillion dollars have been invested in unregulated OTC trading and in unregulated markets like the newly created ICE. http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/may2008/bw20080513_720178.htm

The dollar being devalued has a little bit to do with it, but a 30% reduction in value should not explain a 300-500% increase in oil prices over the last two to three years.
June 2, 2008 10:58 p.m. gamby UltraDork

Chris_V wrote: Green gasoline: http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news4.8.08d.html
switchgrass, poplar trees, even sawdust can be used to make it. Chemically pretty much identical to gasoline, and takes very little energy to make.

""Green gasoline is an attractive alternative to bioethanol since it can be used in existing engines and does not incur the 30 percent gas mileage penalty of ethanol-based flex fuel," said John Regalbuto, who directs the Catalysis and Biocatalysis Program at NSF and supported this research.

"In theory it requires much less energy to make than ethanol, giving it a smaller carbon footprint and making it cheaper to produce," Regalbuto said. "Making it from cellulose sources such as switchgrass or poplar trees grown as energy crops, or forest or agricultural residues such as wood chips or corn stover, solves the lifecycle greenhouse gas problem that has recently surfaced with corn ethanol and soy biodiesel."

"Huber's new process for the direct conversion of cellulose to gasoline aromatics is at the leading edge of the new "Green Gasoline" alternate energy paradigm that NSF, along with other federal agencies, is helping to promote," states Regalbuto.

Not only is the method a compact way to treat a great deal of biomass in a short time, Regalbuto emphasized that the process, in principle, does not require any external energy. "In fact, from the extra heat that will be released, you can generate electricity in addition to the biofuel," he said. "There will not be just a small carbon footprint for the process; by recovering heat and generating electricity, there won't be any footprint.""

AWESOME.

Too bad some war money couldn't be funneled into developing funding/launching this on a larger scale.
June 2, 2008 11:49 p.m. NYG95GA Dork

The plastic industry will end up useing the last petroleum on the planet, well after the point where it's no longer available or affordable to the average consumer.

Think about it: as much gas as we use for our cars, it pales compared to the prevelance of plastics in our world.. plastic requires petroleum to produce.

In the future, people will still have hot rods and custom cars, about the same way that some folks still have horse and buggy setups. Keep 'em clean in a garage, and only take them out a few times a year.
June 3, 2008 10:56 a.m. GlennS Reader

as gas becomes more expensive and cars become more fuel efficent i predict the world will slowly move towards a road warrior economy. Small groups of bandits will maraude across the country side in their fuel efficent vehicles(prius, insight,etc) stealing gas from any who cross their path.

The world will also be one giant desert caused by global warming.

And everyone will wear spike covered football pads cause it looks bad ass
June 3, 2008 11:20 a.m. Salanis HalfDork

GlennS wrote: And everyone will wear spike covered football pads cause it looks bad ass
I need to get a jump on this, and start a designer spiked-pads cottage industry.
June 3, 2008 11:36 a.m. John Brown UltimaDork

I hear that our current top (poorly) talking head would like to create a free range nuclear field between the American states of Iraqitucky and Afghaniginia.

Nice place to get oil in 50 years after the bombings. GW is thinking about our FUTURE!!!
June 3, 2008 12:45 p.m. Jay_W HalfDork

The big problem ain't gas, and it ain't plastic. All fertilizer is petroleum based and when we can't make fertilizer on the scale we're making it now, something like half the world population is gonna find itself outta food.
June 3, 2008 1:17 p.m. seann New Reader

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/science/03tier.html
June 10, 2008 10:23 a.m. Karl La Follette New Reader

The only diesel i have is my school bus so thats just for runs to the hunting camp so my new Hookup with bio diesel is not as beneficial as i would like so i am looking for a diesel car to run . I am seeking a sucker i mean diesel car owner that aint got a bio hookup . The dune buggy has been getting a work out and i am going to get my ORIGINAL SUV out for travelling 1976 westy for trips to the race track before they become non existent .
June 10, 2008 11:10 a.m. aircooled Dork

Here is an interesting read:

60% of totay's oil price is pure speculation...

The general behavior of the price increases seem to support what is said above. If speculation is driving the price, then any possible motivation will be used to increase the price (since that is the way to make money speculating). It just seems like prices are increasing mostly because prices are increasing, which of course would be a pure speculation driving situation

An interesting additional point is that because prices are rising, petroleum reserves will be increased to hedge against further increases, which of course only increases the perceived supply "problem".

If this is the case it will be interesting to see what happens (and who loses out) when this "bubble" bursts. It would be nice if there was some sort of "leader" out there who would put some muscle behind looking into this...
June 10, 2008 11:31 a.m. seann New Reader

I don't really want to discredit your source but the guy seems like a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Did you look at the book at the bottom of the page? It claims that genetically modified food is an attempt to take over the world. While the pattenting of seeds my concentrate a lot of power, it seems like quite a stretch to say that Pinky and the Brain are behind it. Are you familiar with this think tank?

This stuff is completely foreign to me so it's hard to know what to believe, I read an article by Friedman the other day that claimed speculation had nothing to do with the price. Then again, how could that be the case when the cost of oil rose 11 bucks a barrel after a day of trading last week?
June 10, 2008 11:32 a.m. Tim Baxter Online Editor

Are you thinking what I'm thinking....

yeah, but how would you get the sheep in the lederhosen?
June 10, 2008 11:44 a.m. seann New Reader

Also, the people who are making money off these high oil prices, especially the OPEC guys stand to lose a lot if the price gets too high. People start having discussions like this one, companies start investing in alternative energy research that is now economical and and law makers start making policy moves. These guys have been buying our dependence with cheap prices.
June 10, 2008 11:49 a.m. John Brown UltimaDork

If anyone thinks that there is no conspiracy linked to our current global standing then they really haven't been paying attention.

We have been paying something like 10% of our GNP to the Haliburtons of the world to continue a war that will destabilize the region that holds the largest oil reserves in the planet. The people charged with paying these companies? Two formel oilmen, one was a principal in Haliburton. No you are right. No conspiracies here.
June 10, 2008 11:49 a.m. GameboyRMH Dork

seann wrote: law makers start making policy moves.

We'll have a Mad Max situation before those guys get off their fat lazy (and at that point, leather-clad) asses.
June 10, 2008 11:59 a.m. suprf1y New Reader

I predict that the sky will fall. Its not much different than the 70's. Its funny when I pull my hippy, 'back to the land' books, and mags from the mid to late 70's, and read exactly the same stories that are making the news today. Worldwide food shortage, the end of oil, energy prices out of control. The end of the world as we know it. The economy will slow down, and we'll probably see a pretty good recession. Oil prices will settle. The economy will pick up again, and wages will increase. We will go through the same cycle again in 20-30yrs, +/-.

OTOH, I could be wrong...(but I'm not)
June 10, 2008 12:13 p.m. MadScientistMatt HalfDork

AWESOME.

Too bad some war money couldn't be funneled into developing funding/launching this on a larger scale.

Who needs war money when you could make $4 a gallon selling the stuff? There's a fair amount of research on this already. Just no such thing as a scheduled breakthrough.
June 10, 2008 12:18 p.m. Xceler8x Reader

My stupid post was irrelevant.

Thanks for the catch PHeller.
June 10, 2008 2:11 p.m. PHeller New Reader

Xceler8x wrote: A great article on how oil futures are affecting price. The article states that some estimate that 60% of the price of gas is due to speculation in oil futures. Check it out:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=8878</blockquote>

Uh dude, we already covered that.

I don't really want to discredit your source but the guy seems like a bit of a conspiracy theorist. Did you look at the book at the bottom of the page? It claims that genetically modified food is an attempt to take over the world. While the pattenting of seeds my concentrate a lot of power, it seems like quite a stretch to say that Pinky and the Brain are behind it. Are you familiar with this think tank?

This stuff is completely foreign to me so it's hard to know what to believe, I read an article by Friedman the other day that claimed speculation had nothing to do with the price. Then again, how could that be the case when the cost of oil rose 11 bucks a barrel after a day of trading last week?

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