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AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/7/23 6:47 p.m.
VolvoHeretic said:
bobzilla said:

In reply to frenchyd :

g/electricity-mix Coal is still the largest source of power and has been on the increase for the last 40 years. From here.

Also from that above source: Electricity Generation From Coal, 2022 Be sure to pay attention to the trends.

Remember when I said that climate change doesn't follow smooth steady trends but hits tipping points followed by rapid change? Prepare for an ice free Arctic. Yahoo.com: Arctic could be ice-free a decade earlier than thought

So the rest of the world burns a lot of coal.  So how does govt EV mandates in the US stop this?

Also I'd like to place a wager on the arctic ice cap disappearing real soon like the article says in 2030.  Based on the other climate scares that never happened I will take the ice cap.  I wish Vegas would go climate alarmist.  Being rich seems like potential fun.  In 2030, I bet I won't even get an apology or anything.  I bet I get another article and politician telling me if I don't approve more unlimited spending and more control over everything the ice cap really really will melt this time at XXXX point in the future and we'll all DIE!!!!  

Don't we have people to feed, shelter, educate, drug issues, and other more tangible things to fix first?  I will believe the politicians and media on climate change when they clean up skid row, reduce crime in major cities and return the US to #1 in education.  Until then.....  

Tom1200
Tom1200 UberDork
6/7/23 7:24 p.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

I believe one of my original  points was subsidies won't last forever.  You can discuss that without ever bringing politics into it.

A. I believe congress will continue to subsidize EVs because X and Y

B. I believe congress will discontinue to subsidize EVs because X and Y

 

 

VolvoHeretic
VolvoHeretic GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/7/23 8:14 p.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

I just want everyone to understand that even something as simple as EVs, with or without mandates, is a very complex worldwide issue. There is no black or white. About anything.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/7/23 9:23 p.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

Congress is politics.  You don't have to take a side.  On taking other peoples money, both sides agree and cooperate.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/7/23 9:24 p.m.

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

You are dang right.  It is a complex worldwide issue.  And if we don't talk about it and provide our input en masse, we will get ramrodded with their solution.  When I look at everything they've promised to fix my entire life and none of it is fixed, it's time to do something different.  

Tom1200
Tom1200 UberDork
6/7/23 9:30 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Tom1200 :

Congress is politics.  You don't have to take a side.  On taking other peoples money, both sides agree and cooperate.

Again one can state where they stand without the comments about the politicians.

Such as; I don't believe the subsidies will continue becuase as EVs become a larger part of the market the funding simply isn't there to cover that many vehicles.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/7/23 9:45 p.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

I didn't make a comment about any politician.  Who makes the subsidies?

Dancing around an issue fixes nothing.  And my tap shoes do not exist.

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/7/23 10:39 p.m.
z31maniac said:
frenchyd said:
z31maniac said:

I'll take this over any Tesla. I'm sure the fit and finish will be light-years ahead. 

https://www.thedrive.com/news/2025-volvo-ex30-is-a-36k-ev-packing-up-to-275-miles-of-range

Well the Swedes disagree with you.  

Wait, you're saying the Swedes think the Tesla has better fit and finish than their own car? laughlaughlaugh

 

They are buying it in higher numbers.  
  I'm making these numbers up because I don't remember the exact numbers but it's something like Tesla #1 with 6000 cars sold the first 5 months and Volvo #3 with 3000 cars sold. ( MG is #4 ) 
     I looked very closely at the Volvo XC 30  because my wife likes Volvo's 

  Since it is made in China it wouldn't be eligible for any IRS  breaks. Fed or state. 
    

    

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/7/23 11:03 p.m.
Tom1200 said:

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

I believe one of my original  points was subsidies won't last forever.  You can discuss that without ever bringing politics into it.

A. I believe congress will continue to subsidize EVs because X and Y

B. I believe congress will discontinue to subsidize EVs because X and Y

 

 

       The incentives  won't last even to 50%.  I'm actually worried that they might go away by year end 2024.   Minnesota already placed a dollar limit on the total cost of the incentive.  
      They have already ended in much of Europe.  China is in a free fall right now 90+ car companies can't possibly survive. Inventory is stacking up and that doesn't even count the numbers of ICE. Cars that can't be sold in China after July 1 

   I can completely understand why China is banning ICE  cars . 75-80% of China's energy is imported.  Even though they talked Saudi Arabia into accepting the Juan instead of  the dollar ( and that after stiffing  Russia  with 3 Trillion Juan  worth of them). 
  Since China has so much renewables,   wind,  solar, and Hydro power .  Plus they excel  at battery power too.  
    Economically they are in a much stronger position.   
 Besides they are at the end of a very long supply route that has a critical choke point that can be cut off with 2 destroyers.  Not to mention that should Saudi Arabia and Iran get into a war  they would be completely cut off and in a very short time period the lights would go out. 
 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/7/23 11:15 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:
VolvoHeretic said:
bobzilla said:

In reply to frenchyd :

g/electricity-mix Coal is still the largest source of power and has been on the increase for the last 40 years. From here.

Also from that above source: Electricity Generation From Coal, 2022 Be sure to pay attention to the trends.

Remember when I said that climate change doesn't follow smooth steady trends but hits tipping points followed by rapid change? Prepare for an ice free Arctic. Yahoo.com: Arctic could be ice-free a decade earlier than thought

So the rest of the world burns a lot of coal.  So how does govt EV mandates in the US stop this?

Also I'd like to place a wager on the arctic ice cap disappearing real soon like the article says in 2030.  Based on the other climate scares that never happened I will take the ice cap.  I wish Vegas would go climate alarmist.  Being rich seems like potential fun.  In 2030, I bet I won't even get an apology or anything.  I bet I get another article and politician telling me if I don't approve more unlimited spending and more control over everything the ice cap really really will melt this time at XXXX point in the future and we'll all DIE!!!!  

Don't we have people to feed, shelter, educate, drug issues, and other more tangible things to fix first?  I will believe the politicians and media on climate change when they clean up skid row, reduce crime in major cities and return the US to #1 in education.  Until then.....  

I think those are lofty goals. Worthy goals. 
     Unrealistic goals.
   Think about the cost of getting elected or being Re-elected  or just running and there you have the reason those goals are unrealistic. 
    Am I too fatalistic to say that elections should be publicly  funded  with very strict dollar limits?  The most effective candidate would win? 
  The really sweet part of that is the silence .  No more political ad after political ad from Labor Day through November 

Tom1200
Tom1200 UberDork
6/7/23 11:19 p.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

We don't do politics here; hence my comments. 

My point was not solely aimed at you.

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
6/8/23 1:54 a.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

In reply to Tom1200 :

I didn't make a comment about any politician.  Who makes the subsidies?

Dancing around an issue fixes nothing.  And my tap shoes do not exist.

 

Someone else got correlation and causation mixed up again and repeatedly tied past results to specific political parties. I think that's what is being described as political. The EV discussion is primarily about math, which shouldn't be political. While I agree with you, we aren't supposed to discuss politics here. But in this case I think the math alone makes a convincing argument for most without the need to involve politics. 
 

 

Wally (Forum Supporter)
Wally (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/8/23 7:55 a.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

Don't we have people to feed, shelter, educate, drug issues, and other more tangible things to fix first?  I will believe the politicians and media on climate change when they clean up skid row, reduce crime in major cities and return the US to #1 in education.  Until then.....  

The people that want to fix those problems are generally the same ones that are concerned about the climate. Meanwhile half the country's solution to those issues is to tell the homeless, hungry, and otherwise disadvantaged to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and to do their own learning on YouTube. We can either decide we're going to try and fix these problems or be ok with them. Complaining about them while also complaining about anyone that tries to help makes no sense. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 10:15 a.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

Have you considered the creativeness of the Tesla company?  
    Things like the Giga press .   All cars previously had something like 100 parts in the back end.   A Tesla has 1 part stamped with their with their Giga press. 
 Between robots and people they will be able to build a car every 30 seconds!  ( several lines at once ).  The car will be built in 4 pieces and come together  all at once.   
Basically  they  will build the new model 2 for 1/2 the time and 1/2 the cost of the model 3.   That's why they can sell it at $25,000 and still make a nice profit. Tesla averages $9000 per car accord to the investors day statement. 
   Legacy mfg's  would have to start all over from scratch.   They typically have between 160 billion and over 200 billion already in debt. 
 

This has happened before 

 Henry Ford  sold Model T's for Hundreds  of dollars when  most cars were selling for thousands of dollars. Efficiency  on the assembly line is the reason.  
      That only slightly begins to touch the creativeness of Tesla.  There have been thousands of improvements along the way. Elon Musk's goal is to clean up the planet.   Look at his factories. Efficiency also comes from cleanliness.   
   A by product of the new Texas factory is they can provide electrical power when the demand is high.  

  

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 10:59 a.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

In addition to that concern about metals isn't exactly proving out.  Turns out there is a lot of lithium  on the planet.  We are currently getting it from Chili Australia , and several other friendly nations ( qualifies for the battery  portion of the  Tesla model 3 & Y ).  That doesn't count what Russia and China already have.  
    Other metals in the past such as copper have gone up in price because of shortages. For example when China built the 3 Gorge's Dam.  Between recycling and new discoveries that was solved. 
  They just Discovered a nice size patch of rare earth  in North Dakota.  How many more exist?   Minnesota has a nickle cobalt mine that  the DNR  took away their permit because their waste water would pollute trouble rice crops. 
   They will figure that out. And another mine will be generating  metals.  
  Plus Russia will need money  to fix the  country post war. So they will sell those metals  like they sell   Everything else.   That's ignoring all the potential sources yet to be discovered.  Really there is no real shortage. Any more than there is an oil shortage.  
  What's exciting is off shore wind energy in the North Atlantic.  That will power England.  Stuff that really wasn't possible until Tesla started building those mega batteries. 
      Now they are projected to last up to 30 years instead of just 20 with the new chemistry developed.    
    Even cheaper is Sodium ion   There is no shortage of salt. And Sodium and Lithium are right next to each other on the periodic table.  
  The work that is going on with solar panels.  Traditional crystal panels  are labor intensive and only convert about 18% of the energy of sunlite to electricity.  
    Newer panels are getting as high as 22%  while the Germans are working with Graphene.  Which is approaching 40%.  
      Plus the labor to make them will almost disappear. Since they can use a printing press to roll out solar panels.  

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 11:23 a.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

I have to be very careful because I tend to get interested in things in progress rather than just common things already around.   
     But ICE cars were once st this stage too.    4 valve heads were rare,  short strokes,  compact light engines ,  turbo'd and superchargers. All are relatively new. 50 years after cars started selling,  new cars were still. being built with Flathead engines. Even though 4 valve heads were in use 35 years earlier. 
     Indy cars were making 1200 horsepower back in the late 1970's.  Today I can make that with an engine from the junkyard. 
       Or I can just buy a Tesla plaid and have almost  that off the showfloor.  
    
I know some guys are still in love with Flatheads. Heck as a Toy, I want  one myself. 
    What if the change over to EV's  happens as fast as flatheads got over head valves?    
    

Boost_Crazy
Boost_Crazy Dork
6/8/23 11:40 a.m.

In reply to Wally (Forum Supporter) :

The people that want to fix those problems are generally the same ones that are concerned about the climate. Meanwhile half the country's solution to those issues is to tell the homeless, hungry, and otherwise disadvantaged to pull themselves up by their bootstraps and to do their own learning on YouTube. We can either decide we're going to try and fix these problems or be ok with them. Complaining about them while also complaining about anyone that tries to help makes no sense. 
 

Hold on, I need to find my tap shoes...

It's good to care about people and the environment and want to help improve things. The majority of the people in this country want all of the above. They differ on how they feel is best to approach the problems. To say some want to fix them and others don't is not accurate. They just have different approaches to fixing the problems, different opinions on what degree they consider a problem to be, and different opinions on the trade offs/consequences of the proposed  solutions. 
 

The truth is that the best solutions for most problems are somewhere in the middle, which is why these differing views are a good thing overall. People like to frame discussions in the extremes, but the extremes rarely represent reality. 

 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 11:53 a.m.

Good post.  
     I'm one of those people who believes that almost all Americans have a good heart. 
  I simply need to connect with them and can share my views, listen to theirs and arrive at a compromise we can both agree on. 
      I found out that remarkably red districts have more renewables or EV's than blue. 
  Not but much  but enough to be valid.   
   It shocked me, yet reinforced  my statement that almost all Americans have a good heart.  

Wally (Forum Supporter)
Wally (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/8/23 12:19 p.m.

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

If your approach to fixing a problem is saying "I took care of myself, these people need to help themselves" or "It's not affecting me so it's not important" you're not interested in fixing a problem. To then say we shouldn't try to tackle other problems because we didn't tackle other problems that you have no interest in tackling is a weak excuse to just do nothing because it's cheaper than doing something. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 1:17 p.m.

Wally,

    Kaiser Wilhelm learned from the two rye crop failures  that doing nothing is the most expensive way to deal with a problem.  
       During the first Rye crop failure The Kaiser  simply arrested  people who stole to feed themselves and their children. 
  Later when A second crop failure occurred  he dealt with it up front by giving a small stipend  to the very poor.  
    This time he saved so much money that he was able to properly equip his army with the material needed to fight WW 1 

      So if you want to blame someone for welfare. Blame that famous softy* Kaiser Wilhelm  

 * very much tongue in cheek. He would have challenged you to a saber duel if you called him a softy 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 2:39 p.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

Who is BYD ?  
  It's the leading Chinese EV company that on occasion out sells Tesla.  They've also declared a pretty massive profit.  Which  means they are making billions of dollars of profit.  
   Very advanced production similar to Tesla.  
    Warren Buffet  with Berkshire Hathaway was a major investor in them.   So if they stand up to their scrutiny  they must be very legitimate. 
 Tesla uses some of their Blade batteries in the high mileage  type Y. 

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
6/8/23 4:02 p.m.
frenchyd said:

Wally,

    Kaiser Wilhelm learned from the two rye crop failures  that doing nothing is the most expensive way to deal with a problem.  
       During the first Rye crop failure The Kaiser  simply arrested  people who stole to feed themselves and their children. 
  Later when A second crop failure occurred  he dealt with it up front by giving a small stipend  to the very poor.  
    This time he saved so much money that he was able to properly equip his army with the material needed to fight WW 1 

      So if you want to blame someone for welfare. Blame that famous softy* Kaiser Wilhelm  

 * very much tongue in cheek. He would have challenged you to a saber duel if you called him a softy 

I'm not sure you even comprehended what Wally wrote. 

Steve_Jones
Steve_Jones SuperDork
6/8/23 6:49 p.m.

In reply to z31maniac :

Remember, we can explain it TO him, but we can't understand it FOR him. Big difference. 

frenchyd
frenchyd MegaDork
6/8/23 6:52 p.m.

In reply to z31maniac :

Then I think you need to reread both again.  
   I just added to his statement.  

Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter)
Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/8/23 7:26 p.m.
z31maniac said:
frenchyd said:

Wally,

    Kaiser Wilhelm learned from the two rye crop failures  that doing nothing is the most expensive way to deal with a problem.  
       During the first Rye crop failure The Kaiser  simply arrested  people who stole to feed themselves and their children. 
  Later when A second crop failure occurred  he dealt with it up front by giving a small stipend  to the very poor.  
    This time he saved so much money that he was able to properly equip his army with the material needed to fight WW 1 

      So if you want to blame someone for welfare. Blame that famous softy* Kaiser Wilhelm  

 * very much tongue in cheek. He would have challenged you to a saber duel if you called him a softy 

I'm not sure you even comprehended what Wally wrote. 

Wally is saying that sometimes people can't solve their problems and need help. And it may be cheaper not to solve them, but it may not be the right thing to do.

Frenchy is saying that if you go back in history, that Kaiser Wilhelm was one of the first leaders who created a social program to help people to solve a problem, which was people not having enough to eat because of crop failures. An early example of a Government Social Program.

But today we have people who are starving and need help for different reasons. There are mental health problems, drug abuse problems, alcoholism problems, housing cost problems, mostly multiple complex problems without simple solutions. We also have laws and Constitutional interpretations that actually block us from solving problems that people have. And there is waste in Government programs that are supposed to help these people. And there are limited resources. And so on. There are no simple solutions.

And this leads to a political discussion that is not allowed here. And threads getting locked, and people getting banned, and fire and brimstone and dogs and cats living together. Mass hysteria. So enough about that. We should be talking about whether or not EVs will replace ICEs.

What do you think of the Kia Ioniq 6? A sedan instead of an SUV.  360 mile range. More reliable than a Tesla 3? Nice looking car. But not eligible for the $7,500 tax credit. What about those $10,000 BYDs from China. They look very small. Like Suzuki Swift small. Will we get those? Do they have reliability problems? Or will there be some kind of Chicken tax to keep those out so we have to buy more expensive SUVs. Or if China gets more aggressive on Taiwan.

May you live in interesting times...

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