In reply to dculberson :
Thanks for posting that link.
I remember a story about this getting cracked down on in the 80's after Levi's were alleged to have been sewing tags on Mexican made jeans with "Made in USA" printed on the tags.
I tried to verify this but my interest in refining a Google search ran out pretty quick.
Tom1200 said:On the procurement side we are having weekly webinars on Tariffs.
Most of of us don't believe this is all about bringing manufacturing back more and more it seems like it's about leverage. We are hearing snippets that China is still reeling from the pandemic and that it's becoming more difficult for them to conceal the damage.
My personal belief on the Tariffs is they are about curbing the CCPs power. This is reinforced by the number of countries that are eagerly trying to step into the coming void.
So to answer the original post question; I think 5 years from know Chinese goods in the market will be down by about 25%. I came up with that number simply because that is what it will take to marginalize the CCPs influence.
We only account for 14% of Chinese exports, and it's been going down since before the current administration. And they have already started sourcing/trading things from the BRICS countries.
We don't have the power over the CCP that some think we do.
In reply to z31maniac :
14% seems very very low to me.
Also if business shifts to other countries do to the tariffs it accomplishes the goal.
Tom1200 said:In reply to z31maniac :
14% seems very very low to me.
Also if business shifts to other countries do to the tariffs it accomplishes the goal.
It was 16% 3 years ago. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/Summarytext
I am 1000% percent confused about your second sentence. How do tariffs shifting business to other countries help the US?
z31maniac said:It was 16% 3 years ago. https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/CHN/Year/LTST/Summarytext
I am 1000% percent confused about your second sentence. How do tariffs shifting business to other countries help the US?
Those numbers are misleading. Of the 300B in consumer electronics they export almost 100B come to the USA. Consumer electronics are it's most profitable segment. This doesn't account for the products that come to the US indirectly.
As for the second statement; you will recall I mentioned my opinion was Tariffs were about reducing CCPs influence. If business shifts to somewhere like India then China will have less money to available to spread it's influence globally.
China is in a tricky position financially at the moment; their quasi capitalism was a product of Tienanmen Square and they are now at a crossroads which makes their economy vulnerable.
There is growing dissatisfaction with the CCP in China from their burgeoning middle class and the CCP can't afford to lose their support. It's all very tenuous and so the CCP is between a rock and a hard place. They are unwilling to lose face but they can't afford to not negotiate.
All of the above impacts the supply chain; procurement people such as myself will be quick to find many products elsewhere while all this shakes out. I strongly believe they are going to take a big hit if this continues past the 6 month mark.
David S. Wallens said:Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:I think the best way to end crappy parts supply is to search for and pay for better parts.
I'll admit this is much easier said than done, but this is where smaller specialist parts supply companies can really help. Like, if you buy from flaps, you have little choice in brand. If you buy from rock auto, you can likely choose your brand but you have no idea which are good and which are a waste of money. If you buy from a specialist who for example is constantly replacing alternators on the specific model you drive, they likely know the good brands and can sell them to you. We should expect that knowledge to cost something, but compared to doing the job twice, we should also be happy to pay it.
so maybe this thread is more of a "support your friendly marque specialist part suppliers" thread.
edit - and while we're at it, ask them to advertise on GRM ;)
JG and I have both experienced this with OE BMW parts. There are often multiple vendors, so we trust BimmerWorld with a recommendation. Are they the least expensive retailer? Not sure, to be honest.
Dang, wish I'd know that last week. I just bought an ill-fitting $150 Nissens radiator from FCPeuro and while they stand by it and have overnighted me a new one, uhhh I kinda didn't want to have to do this twice.
Just like the lower radiator hose I got from them which happened to be made in Germany, but still leaked. After they had rushed me the third replacement I ponied up the extra 35% and bought BMW hose.
This makes me remember when the heater valve went out on the e28 and I was on FCP Euro deciding what to do. They had two choices. one part was $10 the other, BMW branded part was $100. Reviews were overwhelming that the $10 part you will be replacing every year and the BMW part is a one and done deal. Not wanting to have to change out the part (even though it was easy and took 5 minutes) in the dead of winter after losing heat in the car randomly every year, even with the FCP guarantee, I opted for the BMW part. In hindsight that was the correct choice, but only because I could afford it at the time.
As far as off road bikes, China rads are the go-to. I read yesterday that KTM rads are made in China, and you can buy the same ones on ebay for a lot less.
The plan is working. Subaru is moving some production out of the US to avoid the t word.
Peabody said:As far as off road bikes, China rads are the go-to. I read yesterday that KTM rads are made in China, and you can buy the same ones on ebay for a lot less.
The plan is working. Subaru is moving some production out of the US to avoid the t word.
Subaru had the move planned already and it's not due to the Tariffs.
In reply to Tom1200 :
Subaru Canada to lean more on Japan production to help ‘minimize’ Canadian counter tariffs
Further proof that you can't trust the media
Apparently Mazda had stopped producing the CX 50 in the US for the Canadian market
In reply to Peabody :
Those articles use words like "potentially " and "according to" which make me immediately suspicious. The words are not definitive in their meanings. "Potentially" it could happen but may not. Using "according to" that tells me the reporter didn't speak to that person directly.
My work writing contracts has taught me to be suspicious of words that aren't definitive in their meanings.
I'm willing to bet these moves were either, planned out many many months ago or the statements were made as negotiating tactics. Manufacturing doesn't move this fast.
Tom1200 said:In reply to Peabody :
Those articles use words like "potentially " and "according to" which make me immediately suspicious. The words are not definitive in their meanings. "Potentially" it could happen but may not. Using "according to" that tells me the reporter didn't speak to that person directly.
My work writing contracts has taught me to be suspicious of words that aren't definitive in their meanings.
I'm willing to bet these moves were either, planned out many many months ago or the statements were made as negotiating tactics. Manufacturing doesn't move this fast.
Don't forget "people are saying" which generally means "I made this part up:"
That headline is pretty definitive.
In reply to Peabody :
Not really........they've inserted a level doubt in the one article by saying potentially.
Am I being pedantic?.......probably. The tariffs were just put in place. I don't believe they can move this quickly. When all this shakes out, which it will, then what?
My personal opinion is this was already in the works.
And... I've got all the suppliers lined up and getting purchase orders finished. Target ship date is mid-June.
On other news, they just agreed to lower tariffs on China to 30% down from 145%. I don't know if this overlaps or goes with the auto parts tariffs but I figured I'd post in this thread when it popped up on my headlines.
In reply to RyanGreener (Forum Supporter) :
Reduced for 90 days? Someone wasn't happy with the two dolls comments.
Businesses aren't going to invest in a place or situation that includes lots of volatility. This on again off again tarrif deal is terrible for business. It causes extreme delays at ports due to even the customs folks not knowing what to charge on thst particular day.
This E36 M3 won't end well. But hey if you have the coin you can skirt the tarrifs all together.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marisagarcia/2025/04/29/delta-skirts-trump-tariffs-on-new-airbus-a350-with-flight-to-japan/
And now the china tariffs are canceled. For now.
In reply to NOHOME :
I'm thinking they bought enough of Trumps untraceable private bit coin to appease him.
In reply to kevlarcorolla :
Picture if you will: An 8 year old who wins a brand new shiny Boeing 777 in a cereal box sweepstakes. The catch is that the winner has to fly it home themselves with no flight skills or instructions and the plane is full of passengers. Drink services have been canceled because of course they would. There could be turbulence on the route. Hang on.
In reply to NOHOME :
An impulsive eight year old is a good analogy.
So.... you guys are completely unaware of the NO POLITICS policy here?
Obviously there are needs to skirt around such things sometimes, especially in a topic like this, but making direct insulting remarks on US political figures? You think that is going to end well?
He is a concept for you: if you want to discuss such topics, that need to be danced around a bit, discuss the POLICY, not the PERSON, and especially not direct, insulting, personal attacks on them!!
Heck, in the previous tariff thread, someone actually mentioned the thread should be shut down because it involves politics, and then proceeds to make insulting political remarks.... wow... (well, I guess he was at least aware of his own self-control issues for such things!).
And now, that thread is closed, and those that were getting useful information and perspectives out of it, loose that.
In reply to Floating Doc (Forum Supporter) :
Please, I've never seen an 8 year old have dementia before.
Man this aint even a joke, I can barely even laugh anymore.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
Yes, thank you. Excellent example of what not to post! (argh)
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