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Dr. Hess
Dr. Hess SuperDork
5/24/08 8:09 a.m.

Republicans don't like Little Mac either. In fact, they like him just slightly more than Hillary. They mostly figure that Hillary will screw things up less than BHO, who if you look at what's underneath the sound bites, gets really scarry in a Marxist fashion.

Salanis
Salanis HalfDork
5/24/08 11:13 a.m.

Hess, Was that in response to my question? That still doesn't explain to me why he'd loose. It seems like the situation is, "He's really disliked by the people who are never going to vote 'Dem' anyway."

Jensenman
Jensenman SuperDork
5/24/08 12:29 p.m.
Salanis wrote:
billy3esq wrote:
Jensenman wrote: I believe in the free speech that liberals used to believe in, the economic freedom that conservatives used to believe in, and the personal freedom that America used to believe in.
You just got my vote. Where do I sign up to work on your campaign?
Jensenman, are you: * a natural-born citizen of the United States; * at least thirty-five years old; * have been a permanent resident in the United States for at least fourteen years. It would also help if you have a significant military record or have held major public office. Have you ever thought of running for Governor?

1) Natural born citizen

2) WAY past 35 (still not as old as McCain)

3) Permanent resident since whelping

4) No military record

5) Can't bring myself to stoop low enough to go into politics. Hell, I don't even do company politics well. :whatthe:

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/24/08 6:31 p.m.

Salanis:

I'll take a stab at it.

I agree. There was a time Clinton looked more vulnerable than Obama.

However, in the past few weeks/ months Obama has shown an unbelievable inability to close the deal. He can't seem to finish off a strong opponent when everything was handed to him on a silver platter.

He has shown weakness in his dealings with his skeletons (like Wright). And he hasn't handled the race issue in a strategically effective way (though he HAS generally taken the high road, which I respect).

His inexperience is showing.

He is popular with voting blocks that would go Democratic anyway (like Blacks and young voters), but has lost the support of middle American whites. Clintons argument to the superdelegates is right. He can't win without the middle class.

And his voting record is becoming evident. He is currently ranked as THE most liberal voting member of Congress. (In '05 he was ranked as 16th most liberal, in '06 he was 10th). Comparatively, Clinton is a conservative ('05 20th, '06 32nd, '07 16th most liberal).

He was once a media darling and relatively unknown. Clinton seemed an easier opponent, because she was well known as were her weaknesses. Now that he is becoming known, a lot is being revealed that would challenge his ability to win a national election.

In spite of his charisma, Clinton is a stronger candidate.

Dr. Hess
Dr. Hess SuperDork
5/24/08 7:21 p.m.

SVreX pretty much nailed it. The game is a little larger, I think, but that's about the guts of it. The O will get 15% (the black voting block) of the voting population, guaranteed. They vote D anyway, so that doesn't change things. The other 35% of the vote (D's) comprises about 10-15% Hispanic, of which he might get less than half. That gives him 20% of the vote. Add in the people like scappes (where'd he go?) who will vote D if they put Hitler or Stalin up again, and that gives The O a maximum of 40% of the vote. The other 60 will vote for anyone else for a variety of reasons ranging from invalid reasons like half of The O's racial makup to valid reasons like his philosophy and voting record, correctly pointed out by SVreX as slightly to the left of Stalin. Little Mac wins.

Against the Lizard Queen, it's different: She gets that 15% black plus a good chunk of the Hispanic, that's 25%, plus she gets all the 20% scappes' and that brings her to 45%. Now, she only needs 5.00001% more to win, and left is about 30% who will vote R if they put Little Mac up, leaving 25% up for grabs. That 25% don't like Little Mac for his voting record and history of screwing us all (including D's) to the wall. A portion would rather see anyone but :Little Mac, including the LQ. She only needs 5% of that 25% to win. It would be rather close, but I think in a LQ v. Little Mac, my money is on the LQ. In a Little Mac against The O, Little Mac takes it, if not by a landslide then by a sizeable margin.

I'm just trying to be objective here. I don't care who is for "change" (whatever that is) and who is for 100 more years in Iraq (which will happen regardless, remember that we are still in Japan.) No emotion, just standing back and looking at the game. That's how I see it.

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/24/08 8:19 p.m.

Wow, Dr. Hess said I nailed it.

Brings a tear to my eye. :nice:

Salanis
Salanis HalfDork
5/24/08 8:47 p.m.

Okay, fair enough. In summary: Clinton is more to the center than Obama.

I don't think it will be as open and shut as you're saying though. I think we're in for a close race, either way.

Remember, the winning candidate doesn't need to win the popular vote, they need to win the electoral vote. I also haven't noticed McCain doing much of anything to move to the center.

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/24/08 9:59 p.m.

Actually, I don't think McCain needed to move to the center- he needed to become more attractive to the Conservative base.

He's been making inroads there.

ignorant
ignorant SuperDork
5/25/08 8:31 a.m.

your math assumes that McCain cannot be presented as someone like bus or agreeing with Bush...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/04/27/ST2008042702368.html Also those who newly registered won't walk away if their canidate loses(clinton vs obama)....

It needs to be convereted into an anything but republican race and can be rather easily..

ignorant
ignorant SuperDork
5/25/08 8:36 a.m.

source: http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2008/03/06/electoral-math-as-of-030608-obama-280-mccain-258/

ignorant
ignorant SuperDork
5/25/08 8:36 a.m.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

the average of all the polls shows obama currently up and with a commanding trend above mccain.

Maybe we should speak with data rather than conjecture.

There is also a Clinton vs Mccain graph that shows her above him.. He's behind. Hope his melanoma doesn't come back.

Dr. Hess
Dr. Hess SuperDork
5/25/08 9:37 a.m.

ignorant, It is always an "anyone but..." race. Reagan came in on "ABC," Anyone But Carter. Bush 2 came in on an "Anyone but Dems." Also, these "newly registered voters" tend to not vote. They sign up to vote but don't bother to actually do it. Gore was sure he had a lock on the "rock the vote" set but they didn't bother to show up. So, I don't count them as much of an influence. Also, I think that Little Mac will likely sweep the Hispanic vote for several reasons, including his kissing La Raza's butt. Lord knows what he promised them. Probably SoCal, Arizona.and instant citizenship for the entire Mexican nation.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie New Reader
5/25/08 10:49 a.m.

You can make numbers show anything you want. But the bottom line with McCain is that he is tied himself to a failed policy in Iraq. That quote about spending 100 years in Iraq will come back to bite him again in the general election, even though his people have already rationalized it away. The money we are spending in Iraq is scary considering the state of our current economy. McCain isn't going to change anything here.

I also don't see anything in the Economy that McCain will do any differently from the way Bush is doing it. More spending in Iraq. More tax cuts. More borrowing. He is not an economic conservative.

As for social conservatives, he has flip flopped on this more times than anybody could count. In the 2000 Primary he was bashing religious conservatives. Now he kisses up to them but it is little more than an act. McCain isn't born again. He isn't one of them and they know it. A lot of them will be staying home in November. Bash Obama's preacher all you want. The bottom line is, Obama actually has religious beliefs. That might draw a few votes from the republican side from the faithful who are getting a little bit tired of all of the Republican gay sex scandals. Now McCain is refusing an endorsement from Hegee. That will make him look better to the centrists, but at the same time he is attacking his own base where he needs the most help. And bashing churches, even black ones, will come back to bite him in the end.

As for the current economy, a lot of people are running scared now with the cost of living increasing and unemployment and underemployment going up. My definition of a New Democrat is simply an Old Republican who just lost his job, his health insurance and his retirement. When times get hard, the last thing most people want to hear is that we are going to cut your unemployment benefits, cut your social security, cut your food stamps and cut cut cut cut, while millionaires get another tax cut.

carguy123
carguy123 New Reader
5/25/08 10:57 a.m.

Keep in mind that McCain isn't even running yet.

Oh, sure he has the nomination, but the actual running part won't begin until he knows who he's running against. And besides most of the elections are decided by the last minute ad campaigns anyway.

Gas prices will determine this race. And never think that this election isn't manipulated by other countries to the degree they can control some public opinion. If they can do anything to help sway public opinion to the candidate or party that they feel will be most favorable to them, they'll do it. e.g. Look at the propaganda the Terrorists have put out over the years with their tapes of oppression.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie New Reader
5/25/08 11:20 a.m.
carguy123 wrote: Keep in mind that McCain isn't even running yet. Oh, sure he has the nomination, but the actual running part won't begin until he knows who he's running against. And besides most of the elections are decided by the last minute ad campaigns anyway.

Yep. And the Democratic 527 Groups are going to bring up the Keating Five and and the S&L Scandal involving McCain and more than one Bush again and again and again. People who are getting foreclosed on and anybody who is having trouble making their house payments is going to LOVE that. They also going to talk about McCain's connections with K Street lobbyists, including the ones who are running his election campaign. Then they will go into detail about why McCain's wife won't disclose her finances. Hint - She has more money than Theresa Heinz Kerry, and its from beer, not catsup. They will also go into detail about why McCain dumped his last wife to marry one with more money to support his political campaigns. THAT will go over very big in conservative religious circles.

Lots of skeletons in lots of closets.

Not to mention the fact that unlike John Kerry, Obama tends to punch back quickly and hard when he gets attacked.

This time the other side is ready to fight.

ignorant
ignorant SuperDork
5/25/08 12:37 p.m.
Snowdoggie wrote: You can make numbers show anything you want.

very very true.. but that isn't an excuse to ignore the data..

know your sources and the assumptions made...

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/25/08 1:44 p.m.

OK, Ignorant.. Let's look at some data.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

I don't know anything about this source, it was just the first to show up ion a Google search.'

This poll shows Dems with 200 Electoral votes, and Reps with 189. 111 "leaners". When the "leaners are added in, it gives the Dems a 260-240 lead.

Note, however, that it takes 270 to win, so neither party is projected to win. Note also that this poll admits everything will change soon when they start looking at the general election.

Note also that the love for Obama is CURRENTLY shifting. It won't show in ANY polls for several weeks.

As Snowdoggie said, you can make the numbers show anything you want to.

There won't be any good poll numbers to look at until after the conventions.

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/25/08 1:47 p.m.

BTW, Ignorant, I admire your zeal.

I had a lot more of it when I was a younger man.

Xceler8x
Xceler8x New Reader
5/25/08 2:48 p.m.

Truth is...Bush lost this election for the R's years ago.

What I'd like to see in a candidate this time around?

Strong domestic policy - Fix the economy and stop spending like a college kid with thier first credit card, aka a Republican president.

Restore civil rights - get the gov't out of the domestic spying business. Let's start acting like more of a free republic than a despotic dictatorship. No more torture. No more people jailed without trial. Restore civil rights this country was founded for.

Invest in America's future - invest in infrastructure, invest in technology, invest in education. American can be #1 again.

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie New Reader
5/25/08 3:20 p.m.

The numbers are going to change when the Democrats finally stop fighting each other and decide on a candidate then set their sites on McCain.

I'm not totally sure that Clinton is out of it yet either. She could lose to Obama in the popular vote and still win by manipulations and monkey business during the convention. Her people are already crafting the 'Obama Can't Win, He is the New McGovern' argument for the superdelegates. If that happens, count on a large number of disillusioned Obama supporters leaving the party, or even politics altogether in droves. Hey. Rush might even incite them to riot in the streets of Denver. :grin:

I also heard that if Obama does take the prize that The Clintons might offer little more than lukewarm support to Obama in the general election and no help from the Clinton machine, just like they did to Al Gore. They will be more interested in positioning Hillary for another run in 2012 than they will be in helping Obama win anything, or even positioning Chelsea for a run in 2020.

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/25/08 3:25 p.m.

Chelsea in 2020...

...Oh Gawd, wil it ever end???

Snowdoggie
Snowdoggie New Reader
5/25/08 3:29 p.m.
SVreX wrote: Chelsea in 2020... ...Oh Gawd, wil it ever end???

She will probably be running against Jenna Bush. :omg:

SVreX
SVreX SuperDork
5/25/08 4:21 p.m.

That's not funny, Icepuppy. It's scary.

Xceler8x
Xceler8x New Reader
5/25/08 5:38 p.m.

Which is the reason why we need a President who does not have the name Clinton or Bush in their name ever again. Didn't we revolt to stop being ruled by relations of former rulers?

ignorant
ignorant SuperDork
5/26/08 3:23 p.m.
SVreX wrote: BTW, Ignorant, I admire your zeal. I had a lot more of it when I was a younger man.

thanks.. I figure I gotta use it while I got it.

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