In reply to 03Panther :
Unless we are willing to go back to whale oil lamps and no refrigeration . We have to accept energy will have its costs.
The conversation will be about which costs society will accept. Solar and wind have tax implications but are potentially "clean". Wave action too has potential " clean energy source. Along with several other energy sources. Nuclear while clean has a political cost we are currently unwilling to deal with. Resolve the storage issue for spent waste and it will again become viable.
Costs society has decided it will no longer accept is the pollution and carbon imprint of coal and oil usage.
My buddy has a phD in public policy. I didn't know much about it or how you think about laws/policies until I started chatting with him when he embarked on this educational journey.. Long story short, It's made me think hard about these kinds of things and how they should be rolled out. You need to have a balance of public and private interests when you start setting policies that effect millions... Who benefits? How? Are people not interested in working towards their own best interests and you need to incentivize/decentivize things...
Anyway... He thinks that sometimes you need government to take really big risks to advance our society where private interests wouldn't..
For example.. the interstate highway system.. https://www.archives.gov/publications/prologue/2006/summer/interstates.html People lost their brain over the cost and the complexity and the private land seziure... blah blah blah..
Or the national parks.. same story..
In the end, there will some duds and laws(editorial note to self: is it a law.. like I don't even think it is one) like this california one will probably be changed when they are full implemented... It's a negotiation people.. progress can't be stopped, but what we want to avoid is shooting all the buffalo's to ensure a train can go through..
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to Adrian_Thompson (Forum Supporter) :
A well kept engine won't need a change. The batteries will. And who is going to own the car when that change is forced?
There are thousands and thousands of ICEs limping along with stuff wrong, but they still go. At some point, the battery will need replaced just to go from A to B. And forgive me that I don't see an engine swap more expensive than a battery one right now. Especially with current battery technology- cobalt is just too expensive.
As has been said, batteries are lasting far longer than expected. There are still many hybrids operating with 15+ year old batteries.
At this stage in ICE production cars still had starting handles and wooden wheels. There is a future ahead we can't yet see. Even if we could, we wouldn't believe it until it's right in front of us.
Keith Tanner said:
Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter) said:
I've not checked back in on this thread, so I apologize if this has been covered. It seems like maybe "we" are looking at the transition from ICE to electric the wrong way.
Maybe what we need isn't a better charging infrastructure, but rather a standardization of batteries & return to the "service station" model. If battery packs were standardized designed to be swapped quickly, there's no reason existing gas stations couldn't add the capacity to swap them out on-site.
I'm envisioning that the batteries wouldn't be "purchased" with the vehicle, but rather they would be part of a subscription service. So every time you stop for a battery swap what you'd be paying for is electricity+labor+a portion of the battery life+profit for the companies involved.
Yes, it would be more expensive than just charging your car at home - though I see no reason that couldn't still happen too - but you also wouldn't be faced with expensive battery replacement at some point in the future.
Of course this won't really work until battery tech has plateaued, and the chances of getting all auto manufacturers to settle on a standard packaging for batteries, and a way to make them easily swappable in a matter of minutes, which will never happen.
Every time someone seriously investigates the battery swap concept, it comes back that recharging the battery in the car is a better choice.
How much of that is profit control? Use of GM batteries on a Tesla? Or visa Versa?
pres589 (djronnebaum) said:
I feel like this move makes sense and also look forward to a future with quick charging batteries with increased energy density.
The real solutions, I believe, are going to be more mass transit, walking & bicycling, and simply *less* transit. EV's replacing combustion engines is something but it's not the only change needed if we're going to really battle climate change. More working from home, moving to a four-day work week, city planning that puts work closer to homes, new road projects being only for walking & bicycling and not more cars. These are the changes I think should happen along with more EV's and a good electrical infrastructure to support them.
Possible in urban areas but much of the country is rural. Unless you plan on keeping horses at city limits I doubt yours will be a viable solution.
Bike trails, walking paths aren't suitable for the handicapped, aged, or very young. Nor will it work for delivery or maintenance.
It just makes me happy I live in the Midwest in the middle of nowhere because this will take the longest to effect our area. I have zero desire to own anything electric. I still daily a car with a carburetor. Hybrid training is what made me leave my first technician job. They don't appeal to me and I refuse too own something I can't fix.
im too young to be a boomer.
frenchyd said:
In reply to 03Panther :
Unless we are willing to go back to whale oil lamps and no refrigeration . We have to accept energy will have its costs.
The conversation will be about which costs society will accept. Solar and wind have tax implications but are potentially "clean". Wave action too has potential " clean energy source. Along with several other energy sources. Nuclear while clean has a political cost we are currently unwilling to deal with. Resolve the storage issue for spent waste and it will again become viable.
Costs society has decided it will no longer accept is the pollution and carbon imprint of coal and oil usage.
Did you misunderstand me on purpose?
Here's another thing to think about. What about police cars/ambulances/Fire engines? Will those also be covered under this mandate? I've asked someone who worked at Tesla about this a few years ago when it came up in a conversation, and could not get a straight answer. I mentioned the only way it'll work is if the battery form factor was such that the batteries could be swapped easily and fast. IMO There wil probably be an exemption for emergency vehicles. Just sitting here browsing forums and looking at real estate out of state we've had 4 brownouts and I'm in the central valley. There's absolutely _no way_ the power grid can handle this even if the state diverted every cent they were using for the "high speed rail system" and invest it into the power grid for the next 15 years. The enviromentalits will fight it tooth and nail, like they did with clearing dead wood/brush from our forests. I had an eerie feeling last month when the power went out at 11pm while it was 90+ outside and watching the SCU lightning complex fire outside our bedroom window. I don't see this happening in my lifetime.
In reply to mjrj (Forum Supporter) :
It can happen directly after the invention of the superconductor and the perpetual motion machine..But just try to explain that to people that KNOW they are right, because "they" told 'em so
Remember. Electricity is magic juju that comes out of the wall.
frenchyd said:
In reply to 03Panther :
.....We have to accept energy will have its costs.
The conversation will be about which costs society will accept.....
Costs society has decided it will no longer accept is the pollution and carbon imprint of coal and oil usage.
Yes, You have brought up a very important point that most do not consider, at what cost?
How much are people willing to pay to go carbon neutral and for what actual effect. CA going carbon neutral will be massively expensive, and to what effect? Cleaner air? Certainly, but the air is not that bad now, WAY better than it used to be, (I live near LA) and will only get better as electric cars become more practical / affordable. Will it have any impact on global warming? Realistically, no. At best we are talking about fraction of a percent, and at what cost.
So why not pay the cost? Despite what some might think, not everyone in CA is made of money. These costs are passed on (either directly or indirectly) to those who can least afford it.. E.g. A solar installation that can charge a car in a house can push $30,000 pretty easy. Not a lot of people in the state can (or should try to) afford that. In 20 years that might be $1500, so why push so hard now (to get to where he want to go would require a push now).
This is one of those situations where you can get 80% of the (useful) effect for 20% of the cost (just keep going the way we have been). Why crank that knob to 100 for so little gain. That money can certainly be useful elsewhere.
So yes, I also wish people would consider "at what cost" more when they think of these things.
In reply to aircooled :
We probably disagree on what the environment need from us ...and why people believe all the propaganda...BUT !
Super well thought out response, and both our sides need more of that! I agree with all the points you are making, and the questions you are asking to make folks think! (When I try that, people think I'm just being an azz hat! You pulled it off well!)
My sincerest compliments, sir!
aircooled said:
frenchyd said:
In reply to 03Panther :
.....We have to accept energy will have its costs.
The conversation will be about which costs society will accept.....
Costs society has decided it will no longer accept is the pollution and carbon imprint of coal and oil usage.
Yes, You have brought up a very important point that most do not consider, at what cost?
How much are people willing to pay to go carbon neutral and for what actual effect. CA going carbon neutral will be massively expensive, and to what effect? Cleaner air? Certainly, but the air is not that bad now, WAY better than it used to be, (I live near LA) and will only get better as electric cars become more practical / affordable. Will it have any impact on global warming? Realistically, no. At best we are talking about fraction of a percent, and at what cost.
So why not pay the cost? Despite what some might think, not everyone in CA is made of money. These costs are passed on (either directly or indirectly) to those who can least afford it.. E.g. A solar installation that can charge a car in a house can push $30,000 pretty easy. Not a lot of people in the state can (or should try to) afford that. In 20 years that might be $1500, so why push so hard now (to get to where he want to go would require a push now).
This is one of those situations where you can get 80% of the (useful) effect for 20% of the cost (just keep going the way we have been). Why crank that knob to 100 for so little gain. That money can certainly be useful elsewhere.
So yes, I also wish people would consider "at what cost" more when they think of these things.
You make a solid argument please allow me to comment. Not to attack you but to develop your thought further.
When gold was discovered in California that brought a rush of settlers out west to a largely undeveloped portion of the country. Some lost their life, some lost their wealth, few became wealthy but all those who made it became part of someplace good.
We spent a fortune as a nation building the interstate system. Sometimes taking land by Eminent Domain Nobody can or will argue that it wasn't worth it.
America raced Russia to the moon and spent a fortune to do so. Is there any doubt that we have received value for that cost?
I cannot predict all the good investing in diverse energy production will create. We know that millions of jobs will be created. A stronger, more diverse and resilient grid system will emerge. Who knows beyond that? Will it create another Henry Ford, Steve Jobs, Elon Musk ?
As things stand now we spend a disproportionate amount on defense at the cost of leading to the future.
I just want to say, I agree with what you are saying.
General comment: As with most things, in a world of 1 to 10, the vast majority are between 3 and 7, yet we tend to talk to each other like we are either 1 or 10. (I think I have a new sig line....)
Back to the base issue: I saw someone talking about the effect of such a mandate, and he mentioned the car dealers are going to take a hit because electric require far less maintenance (I suspect they will make up for with higher selling prices). This of course will eventually roll down to repair shops.
Of course, I am also having a hard time finding a repair shop for my typewriter....
As far as manufacturers, I don't think they see this as any issue at all, they are already well along the path.
JoeyM
Mod Squad
9/27/20 2:02 p.m.
aircooled said:
As with most things, in a world of 1 to 10, the vast majority are between 3 and 7, yet we tend to talk to each other like we are either 1 or 10.
+10 This is a sage observation, that's applicable to a lot more than this situation
dropstep said:
It just makes me happy I live in the Midwest in the middle of nowhere because this will take the longest to effect our area. I have zero desire to own anything electric. I still daily a car with a carburetor. Hybrid training is what made me leave my first technician job. They don't appeal to me and I refuse too own something I can't fix.
im too young to be a boomer.
A portion of the population believes as you do. Some farmers kept their team of horses to pull those new fangled horseless carriages out of the mud holes they'd get trapped in.
Then they kept them around for sentimental reasons but once they pulled his coffin to the grave site they were of no further use and treated accordingly.
It's possible to never acknowledge the future at all. It has its costs but apparently some are willing to pay those costs rather than deal with change
JoeyM said:
aircooled said:
As with most things, in a world of 1 to 10, the vast majority are between 3 and 7, yet we tend to talk to each other like we are either 1 or 10.
+10 This is a sage observation, that's applicable to a lot more than this situation
I couldn't agree more. You're either fascist or a communist. Or a sheeple.
aircooled said:
Back to the base issue: I saw someone talking about the effect of such a mandate, and he mentioned the car dealers are going to take a hit because electric require far less maintenance (I suspect they will make up for with higher selling prices). This of course will eventually roll down to repair shops.
Of course, I am also having a hard time finding a repair shop for my typewriter....
As far as manufacturers, I don't think they see this as any issue at all, they are already well along the path.
While I agree that EV's will have lower maintenance, I doubt the shops will go broke, remember how much training it takes to operate a computer properly. I can see the people pulling into the shop day How do I turn this off again? How come my ••••• wont work? How do you turn the radio volume down? Etc.
Plus all the recharging issues. " What do you mean I have to plug it in? Plug it into what?" "Can I get somebody to do that for me?" " I dont want to get a shock"
Plus any body work likely will wind up in the dealership.
frenchyd said:
dropstep said:
It just makes me happy I live in the Midwest in the middle of nowhere because this will take the longest to effect our area. I have zero desire to own anything electric. I still daily a car with a carburetor. Hybrid training is what made me leave my first technician job. They don't appeal to me and I refuse too own something I can't fix.
im too young to be a boomer.
A portion of the population believes as you do. Some farmers kept their team of horses to pull those new fangled horseless carriages out of the mud holes they'd get trapped in.
Then they kept them around for sentimental reasons but once they pulled his coffin to the grave site they were of no further use and treated accordingly.
It's possible to never acknowledge the future at all. It has its costs but apparently some are willing to pay those costs rather than deal with change
Yup I'll keep mine until I can no longer find fuel for it. The sound and smell is part of the experience for me.
Also. They don't have commercial sailing ships anymore?! This has a major impact on my tobacco farming plan.
There's actually research being done on this topic. Some ships have been equipted with modern "Sails" to reduce fuel usage.
It could work for smaller ships, but those container ships I don't think so.
mjrj (Forum Supporter) said:
Here's another thing to think about. What about police cars/ambulances/Fire engines?
They'll probably have to stick to hybrid setups as Fueled by Caffeine stated simply due to issues of cost but thankfully, hybrid EMS vehicles kick the E36 M3 out of standard ones. JEMS had an article about these that also showed the hybrid system was also seriously improving reliability, since the breaks aren't mashed as bad amongst other things*. This is assuming that battery technology doesn't improve to the point where they can replace whatever engine is in them of course, and there's plenty of styles and municipal needs (i.e. big cities like LA/New York need smaller van types to dodge and go on sidewalks, Midwest need to carry all their equipment on site, ect). Cost will be a question but you're carrying power and the ability to work to a site, so it wont be the same as the "War on Terror" rollout 20 years ago that saw departments buy thousands of NACC kits and Geiger counters only for them to rot in their boxes.
Even as a proponent of this, aircooled still raises the biggest point- at what cost? It'll come down on the working/poor classes no matter what, unless you somehow load it onto the rich without debate. That also assumes too much to be kind about it as well, as for all we know Cali is gonna begin with a steady and consistent plan that genuinely DOES return a savings. Hard, but absolutely not impossible!
As for concern for small repair shops... assuming that something like OBD continues and Right to Repair laws get stronger, I'm not worried. There will ALWAYS be idiots irregardless of the vehicle they are driving. The real fear will be OEMs wanting to control their income as much as possible and limiting access to 3rd party repair; Tesla is not the only one that is doing this, as FCA has with the Fiat 500e and same with BMW.
We expend 5% of all global energy production on the creation of gasoline. It's not going anywhere anytime soon.
*Ambulances tear through transmissions and brakes like you cannot imagine.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
Also, re repair shops and maintenance, I'd be willing to bet that the majority, or close to, of actual repairs performed now are on systems that will still exist on battery cars. Brakes, suspension, steering, tires, alignments, and body shop stuff. I know it's been said already, but I think it bears repeating. Maybe some quick lube joints will suffer, but most good shops won't. Dealers surely won't. After working nearly half a decade at one of the big names, I can guarantee they will still make healthy profits. How many software updates does the average phone get in a year? 5? 10? More often than cars get oil changes. I have to think cars will need just as many updates as a phone. Now imagine the dealer charges $30 to install them. That's way more money and way less overhead. So the first five years a car is in service it'll likely spend just as much time in the shop as ICE cars do now. After that, either the Indy shops buy the equipment and licensing, or the market finds ways to retrofit and hack the systems to keep cars on the road for the second and third owners and so on. The big benefit here is no emissions, so things can be modified easier (or so I imagine) and the market will gladly answer that problem.
Most of the lead techs at the dealers are diagnostic guys anyway, at least that's what they spend the majority of their time doing. Almost all of it either on or with computers and electric testing equipment. That's only going to increase. The jobs won't go away, they'll change.
I am not opposed to electric, but there isn't anything cool out there, that would make want to purchase one. Yes, there are Tesla's but I don't have $94k, if I did I would probably buy a 911 Porsche. I also don't live in a big enough metropolitan city, where I can plugin everywhere, I go.
IT’s just not exciting, Its like when WEC/Le mans went from the awesome diesel technology to the electric, the Peugeot 908 was just pure awesome.
FE is the most disappointing series, instead of designing the car like the Red Bull X2010 which is super cool, it looks like an indycar with the khardsain back end and the front end looks like reconfiguration of a SCCA F500 from the 80-90’s. The track designs or horrible, because a shifter karts are way faster. I don’t need the vroom vroom, but these electric cars seem better suited for a robot then human.
I got synced when I saw my firs fully electric drag car in the mid 90's or so. Dodge Colt, IIrc. Quick little thing, too! TILL the owner/builder/driver, during an interview, said " and with no internal combustion engine, it uses no power at all, So i'm saving the environment., Uh.. that would be a negative!! I guess he wanted everyone to believe the charger was powered by unicorn farts! Ya know kinda like the modern "solar power and electric cars will save everything." crowd of today. That have no understanding of the actual efficiency ( or lack of) involved.
mjrj (Forum Supporter) said:
Here's another thing to think about. What about police cars/ambulances/Fire engines?
Germany is saying you need zero emission in the major cities soon , but you know that trash trucks , fire engines and other city trucks will be exempt for a few extra years.....
This is a worldwide trend , EVs are the thing , hopefully we do not go down the wrong EV road and have to back up .....
California has made a lot of stupid laws about EVs , which got us street legal golf carts to fill the EV quota !
