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02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
1/4/24 10:10 p.m.

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Fair enough. I thought that was a general enough observation to not be divisive, but perhaps it was not, particularly given my chosen example. My apologies.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) PowerDork
1/5/24 7:17 a.m.

In reply to 02Pilot :

No need for that on my end.  I personally think the issue is so interrelated it should be discussed together.  Apparently many here feel differently.  I find the desire to confine discussion so much far more interesting.  That's why it stood out to me.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
1/5/24 8:08 a.m.
02Pilot said:

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Fair enough. I thought that was a general enough observation to not be divisive, but perhaps it was not, particularly given my chosen example. My apologies.

I typed out like three responses before deleting them. It was pretty divisive. I'd love to explain why, but it gets people mad and breaks the rules. PM me if you're curious and want to chat. I'm not mad, but there are some severe misunderstandings laid out.

 

Duke
Duke MegaDork
1/5/24 9:07 a.m.
tuna55 said:
02Pilot said:

Fair enough. I thought that was a general enough observation to not be divisive, but perhaps it was not, particularly given my chosen example. My apologies.

I typed out like three responses before deleting them. It was pretty divisive. I'd love to explain why, but it gets people mad and breaks the rules. PM me if you're curious and want to chat. I'm not mad, but there are some severe misunderstandings laid out.

English history alone proves that 02Pilot's statement was pretty valid.

However, I'm leaving it at that.

 

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
1/5/24 9:43 a.m.
Duke said:
tuna55 said:
02Pilot said:

Fair enough. I thought that was a general enough observation to not be divisive, but perhaps it was not, particularly given my chosen example. My apologies.

I typed out like three responses before deleting them. It was pretty divisive. I'd love to explain why, but it gets people mad and breaks the rules. PM me if you're curious and want to chat. I'm not mad, but there are some severe misunderstandings laid out.

English history alone proves that 02Pilot's statement was pretty valid.

However, I'm leaving it at that.

 

History and the actions of people, but as is so often the case the worst and also most spectacular caricatures, or even worse the most absurdly simplified events in history become the de facto spokespeople for the masses either too simplistic or too hostile to consider the reality of the underlying system.

The crusades are not a commentary on Christianity any more than a suicide-vest is a commentary on Islam any more than Stalin is a commentary on Socialism any more than Jefferson is a commentary on constitutional-republicanism and so on. Yet people hostile to any of those pick on the worst behavior of those individuals or events to dehumanize and remove all inconvenient details.

tuna55
tuna55 MegaDork
1/5/24 9:57 a.m.

As is so often the case, my attempt to provide clarity results in a complicated paragraph.

 

As TunaDad would say, a bit more simply: "The other side sucks!"

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/5/24 1:15 p.m.

Situation update.  It looks like the IDF has northern Gaza mostly controlled at this point.  It also looks like they are paying a bit more attention to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon who continue to snipe at Israel.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/8/24 2:20 p.m.

Israel is claiming control over northern Gaza and will shift to the south (probably what some of the notes above were referencing).  I am sure there is still plenty of clean up work there, but it appears any major fights are over.  Claiming 8,000 Hamas killed, 30,000 weapons seized.  It will be interesting to see a full map of tunnels found and a full accounting of weapons found (with consideration of the source of course, but I suspect they will have little need to exaggerate)

The number of tunnels and weapons being found seems to point to the reality that if Israel wants any chance to avoid this thing just popping back up, they need to clean out the entirety of Gaza.  Of note, the West Bank is an very different situation.

One question I would have is as they move into the south, where to the refugees go?  A solutions may be to clear areas in the north for camps, secure them (provide services etc) and have them move there.  Clearly they would need to be very careful to make sure those areas would be kept weapon free (which I suspect might be the same general plan for the entirety of Gaza).

Here is an example of why they need to be so thorough.   This is a rocket launching position found in northern Gaza.  Clearly very small and easily hidden.  The rocket tubes can be see just below the open cover, and clearly lead into it. Probably a short range setup meant to attack IDF forces in Gaza.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/11/24 6:13 p.m.

Let's see if this is an accurate prediction.  It pretty much has to happen eventually.  It's having a noticeable effect on the world economy (e.g. shipping container costs have shot up in the area):

British Times:
British Prime Minister approves British forces to join air strikes on Yemen.

Israeli media:
The US and UK will strike weapons depots, missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles in Yemen. According to Western sources, limited attacks will be carried out in order not to expand the circle of fire in the region.

Pentagon:
American missile defense systems in the Gulf were put on alert.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/11/24 7:42 p.m.

Looks like it was true:

U.S. and U.K. striking Houthi targets in Yemen to retaliate for spate of attacks

The U.S. and U.K. have begun striking targets in Yemen to retaliate for Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, a U.S. official confirmed to CBS News on Thursday night. The Iranian-backed Houthis have been launching barrages of drone and missile attacks in the Red Sea since soon after the Israel-Hamas war began.

The Houthis launched one of the largest attacks in the Red Sea yet on Tuesday. Three U.S. destroyers along U.S. F-18s and a British warship shot down 18 drones and multiple missiles launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement. 

Tuesday's "complex attack," as CENTCOM described it, occurred within a week of a joint statement from the U.S. and several other countries warning that the Houthis would face "consequences" if the attacks continued. 

"The Houthis will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy, and free flow of commerce in the region's critical waterways," the joint statement released by the White House last Wednesday said.... 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-uk-strike-yemen-to-retaliate-houthi-attacks/

 

Looks like they brought some pretty big bombs with them:

Before US and UK strikes on Yemen's Houthis tonight, Iranian spy ship BEHSHAD departed the southern sector of the Red Sea.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/16/24 12:22 p.m.

Some things happening (that might not hit the news):

Wall Street Journal: Israel has informed Egypt that it is going to launch an operation to take over the Philadelphi corridor very soon.

It is rumored this boarders has tunnels under it and is used to move supplies into Gaza, and perhaps high level Hamas types out, which is why Israel would want to secure it.

What this boarder looks like from the Gaza side BTW (pretty clear Egyptians don't want anyone crossing):

 

Also of note.  This is after the attacks in Yeman.  This of course is an eventuality with the number of missiles being shot, which would be far more likely if they did not attack them (destroying launchers, supplies etc).  The ship did not seem to be seriously damaged BTW.

Houthi missile hits US-owned container ship in Gulf of Aden

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67986226

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
1/26/24 1:32 p.m.

For some reason China think Iran has something to do with, or control over the Houthi attacks (!)  indecision

A way to characterize wars and conflicts is in a mostly economic way. In this case, your war is hurting my bottom line. Stop now.  China has enough economic issues brewing as it is.

Exclusive: China presses Iran to rein in Houthi attacks in Red Sea, sources say

DUBAI, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Chinese officials have asked their Iranian counterparts to help rein in attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthis, or risk harming business relations with Beijing, four Iranian sources and a diplomat familiar with the matter said.

The discussions about the attacks and trade between China and Iran took place at several recent meetings in Beijing and Tehran, the Iranian sources said, declining to provide details about when they took place or who attended......

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/china-presses-iran-rein-houthi-attacks-red-sea-sources-say-2024-01-26/

-----

There is potential this is a misinformation campaign, or may be entirely true:

US secretly warned Iran before ISIS terror attack

The US secretly warned Iran that ISIS was planning a potential terror attack inside Iran’s borders before the group carried out a deadly attack near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani on January 3, according to a US official.

The private warning was based on intelligence the US had obtained about ISIS’ plans and was given to Iran based on the US government’s “duty to warn” policy, the official said. That policy applies even to US adversaries....

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/25/politics/us-warned-iran-isis-terror-attack/index.html

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
3/25/24 9:06 a.m.

Interesting this topic has been silent for over a month.  I was discussing it with a friend of mine, and we were talking about the media coverage of related events- for example, the protests in London last November.  A screenshot of a search I just made shows just how varied reports can be:

Toyman!
Toyman! GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
3/25/24 10:04 a.m.

I have to wonder if those protesters would feel the same if they were under constant threat of being murdered and raped because they were Jewish. 

 

Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
3/25/24 10:20 a.m.

I just assumed that the thread was locked. 

I can't believe that Netanyahu didn't know this or something like it was going to happen. This suggests that he was looking for an opportunity to beat the crap out of Palestine in just the way that has been happening. I'm not going to say much more. It's a E36 M3fest and my heart goes out to all the innocents who never signed up for this.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
3/25/24 11:44 a.m.

The level of complexity here is off the charts, even by Middle East standards. Just in the last few days, I've read about how Hamas, Fatah, and the PA are unable to agree on any sort of framework for a post-war settlement, and they're all supposedly on the same side. Add in Israeli government objectives, domestic political considerations, and a settler movement that's now eyeing beachfront property in Gaza, and you've got an incredibly volatile stew; top that off with regional actors, all of whom have their own concerns, and the possibility of any sort of agreement looks, well, bleak.

The simple fact is that the only times you've seen peace between factions in the region are when 1) there is enough ability to mutually threaten each others' survival that all sides lay back out of self-preservation, and 2) when one side is so dominant that the others have little choice but to sit back and take it. When multiple actors think they can get something out of the situation without serious additional accumulated risk, you get the current mess or a variation thereof.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
3/25/24 12:08 p.m.

I have still been tracking this, but have not updated anything here because it is clearly a sensitive topic (as is hinted by the two post above, not O2's, which I respect the opinions, no disrespect intended) and is rather easy to step on toes with.  Much of because of what Volvo has posted, there are wildly different takes (angels etc) on it in the media.  Certainly none of us are there, we can only know what we see / read in the media(!)

His post of course is a very very minor version of what is going on.  The variation on reporting is EXTREME to say the least, especially as you wander into less standard western sources.... and of course... social media (which I get a very small glimpse into).  Some of the, what is clearly propaganda, is laughably bad... and yet, is clearly taken on its face, no sense of context (assuming the presentation is true, which many times it is clearly not) even attempted in many cases.  I could state some clear examples, but, it will just anger someone. 

There is very much a media / information / propaganda "war" going on. Be very clear on that.

As for the general situation as I can see it.  The Israelis seem to have mostly cleared Khan Yunis, the largest city in the south of Gaza, and apparently a pretty big Hamas stronghold (I think the leader lived there).  Not a lot of tunnels being blown up anymore (maybe they found most all of them?).  Still weapons and even large stashes of cash being found (as reported by the Israelis of course).  They are starting to get some activity in the "cleared" areas now, which is a bit ominous (of what the future might be like).

Israelis, as they tend to, continue to target both leaders of Hamas (which I think are mostly gone, or have fled at least Gaza) and Hezbolla (the ones still rocketing them from the north in Lebanon).

The supply situation is wildly confusing and convoluted.  I suspect part of the confusion is differentiating between Israeli controlled areas, and Hamas controlled, and/or less Israeli controlled areas, which are clearly very different, yet I have not seen that distinction (again, media issue).

The US is planning on having the US Army build a temporary Pier in Gaza to offload supplies (this will likely take at least weeks to do).  I see this as having great potential (even if a small chance) to get some US service members killed (many many people in that area really want to kill Americans, especially service members and could care less if they are actually helping "their people"), but we will see, maybe they have a good plan to avoid that (!?!?!) 

The big question at this point is Rafah, which is a much smaller city at the very southern boarder and clearly has alot of refugees that could (or did not want to) flee north to the "cleared" areas.  It seems very certain many Hamas fighters are there hiding within the civilians.  I see no real reason why Israel would not want to clear that area also.  The least they can do at this point is clear out as many of the weapons as they can find since the people they are fighting do not wear uniforms and can easily fade back into the civilians in a mater of seconds.

On the other front, the Houtis continue to attack shipping, though less now since less is traveling through the straight.  The Houtis have apparently made and agreement with Russia, Iran and China not to attack their ships (although managed to attack a Chinese ship recently, no accounting for competence of course)

Anyway, that is what I see.   Not trying to rile anyone up.

volvoclearinghouse
volvoclearinghouse UltimaDork
3/26/24 6:22 p.m.

In reply to aircooled :

No riling going on that I can see. As you say, we have reached Deep Propaganda time- both here and in that other major War going on right now- and trying to make any sense of anything is a fool's errand.  Just pray the nukes stay in their silos and a third World War doesn't become what the history books print happens. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/2/24 12:27 p.m.

Some notable developments that might not have hit the big news feeds:

 

As most should be aware, it is pretty much certain Iran is both funding and coordinating most of the acts against Israel.  And as noted previously, one of Israel primary methods is to go after commanders / organizers:

Israeli strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria killed 2 generals and 5 other officers, Iran says

DAMASCUS, Syria (AP) — An Israeli airstrike that demolished Iran’s consulate in Syria on Monday killed two Iranian generals and five officers, according to Iranian officials. The strike appeared to signify an escalation of Israel’s targeting of military officials from Iran, which supports militant groups fighting Israel in Gaza, and along its border with Lebanon.....

https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240

The IRGC has officially acknowledged the death of seven corps officers as a result of an Israeli Air Force strike on the Iranian Embassy in Damascus.

 

This one of course, as noted by Volvo, will have wildly different takes depending on the source.  The Israeli's say the hospital (the big one in the north that was a big battlefield early on) was again being used to store weapons and house militants (some of which were released in the prisoner for hostage exchanges) within the civilian population.  Hamas says Israel was there just to kill more civilians.  Either way, it speaks to the continuing potential for fighting even in the reportedly cleared areas of Gaza.

 

Israeli troops exit Gaza's Shifa Hospital, leaving rubble and bodies

JERUSALEM/CAIRO, April 1 (Reuters) - Israeli forces left Al Shifa Hospital in Gaza City on Monday after a two-week operation by special forces who detained hundreds of suspected Palestinian militants and left a wasteland of destroyed buildings.

With access to Gaza's biggest hospital severely restricted, the Israeli and Palestinian versions differed sharply.

Palestinian officials called the raid on a hospital treating severely wounded patients a war crime, while Israeli officials said special forces units conducted a targeted strike against a Hamas stronghold deliberately located among vulnerable civilians.

Thousands of Palestinians - 6,200 according to the Israeli military - had been sheltering in the complex, one of few locations in the north of Gaza with some access to electricity and water.

Ismail Al-Thawabta, director of the Hamas-run Gaza media office, said Israeli forces had killed 400 Palestinians in and around the hospital including a woman doctor and her son, also a doctor, and put the facility out of action.

"They bulldozed the courtyards, burying dozens of bodies of martyrs in the rubble, turning the place into a mass graveyard," he said. "This is a crime against humanity."

Hamas and medics deny any armed presence in hospitals but Israeli military spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the site had been turned into a major operating centre by the Palestinian armed groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

He said emergency patients had been evacuated from the hospital before the operation and said no Palestinian civilians, patients or medical personnel had been harmed by Israeli forces.

He said three of the main buildings in the complex had been destroyed in the fighting - the main emergency room, the maternity ward and an annexe known as the Qatari Building - after Hamas fighters refused calls to surrender.

"They're using those places, they know it's a safe haven, they know that they use it intentionally as their command and control centre," he told reporters on Monday.

He said 200 militants and two Israeli servicemen had been killed during the operation and more than 900 suspected militants detained, of whom some 500 were identified as Hamas or Islamic Jihad, including senior commanders and officials.

He said documents recovered by Israeli forces showed the hospital was used as a base to control the northern section of the Gaza Strip, which has largely been destroyed since the start of the ground invasion in October.....

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-troops-leave-gazas-al-shifa-hospital-after-two-week-sweep-2024-04-01/

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
4/13/24 6:50 p.m.

Well, this should be interesting: Iranian drones headed for Israel. Retaliation is inevitable, but will be proportional to the actual damage inflicted, not the potential damage (see below for explanation).

I've read a few things in the last few days about Israel's habit of getting the tactical right (as well as the operational, though this was not specifically mentioned), but the strategic wrong. If the Israelis would at least make a show of being flexible on a post-war Gaza settlement, they might start to lay the groundwork for restarting talks with the Saudis on normalization, which, in a direct conflict with Iran, would be very helpful indeed. Hamas is a problem, no doubt, but the response in Gaza is being driven in no small part by the government's need to maintain a high threat environment to keep power. If Bibi eases off, he's afraid his rivals will pounce and kick him out; he's probably right. The hostages are also a complicating factor (according one report, the current proposal calls for 40 hostages to be released, but Hamas isn't sure that 40 are still alive to be exchanged). But all of this pales to insignificance compared to the problem of Iran, and here is where Israel is underperforming - a cooperative relationship with Saudi Arabia would go further to containing Iran than virtually any military response the Israelis might realistically envision.

Edit: Iranian statement via the permanent mission to the UN: “Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!” Fairly measured by Iranian standards, which also suggests a domestic motive; hardliners may have been demanding a response, but the leadership clearly does not want to further expand the conflict, and why should they - they've already achieved a major strategic victory by undermining the Israeli-Saudi normalization process.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/13/24 7:05 p.m.

The estimation is 100's of drones launched, and likely cruise missiles and ballistic missiles.   Currently Israel has reportedly intercepted many of the drone already.  Not sure what is being targeted, but many have been seen over Jerusalem (sort of Iran side of Israel)

As of this posting, the majority of attacks should be happening about now.

Israel of course has a rather robust air warning and defense system, and have know this is likely to happen for many days.  They are of course being assisted by US intelligence capabilities (and possible aircraft to shot some of these down).  It's certainly possible none will hit anything, but also possible some will.  Even when intercepted, cruise missiles, missiles and drone can still cause damage where they fall.

The important question at this point (as highlighted by 02) is what will Israel do in response, if any.  I suspect this will depend on what damage they do.  This is somewhat similar to Iran's response to the US killing of Solomoni (sp).  They warned of an attack, and launched a fairly weak attack and called it at that (some US servicemen where injured though).  In that case, and like this, it's more about a show of revenge, than actual damage, which if there is too much of it, could create a rapid escalation.

The US has admitted to actively intercepting the drones at least (expect cruise missiles and ballistic missiles as well).

The other question here is how the Iranian proxies and "supporters" (Israeli haters really) will react.  There is of course a tendency to "take a free shot" while they can.  Similar to how Iraq took the opportunity to attack Israel during the invasion of Iraq (knowing they were unlikely to retaliate and potentially turn it into another Arab / Israeli war).

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/14/24 2:26 a.m.

I am sure most of this will be all over the news but the general conclusion at this point is little damage and no reported deaths in Israel, but 3 deaths in Jordan.  Jordan was apparently active in shooting down missiles and drones in that most of not all would have to pass through their airspace.

There were a number of recorded hits on an Israeli airbase in southern Israel and I am sure that some other things were hit but hard to say if Israel will admit much.

Israeli as well as US and British planes apparently assisted in shooting down targets (likely mostly cruise missiles).  Most missiles and drones seem to have been taken out before they got into Israel.

There have been indications Israel is claiming they will retaliate.

The interesting dynamic here is that Iran (based on what 02's post talks about) clearly does not want the US involved and likely very much does not want a significant response from Israel  (their military is wildly more capable).  But, they also very much want to look tough against Israel.  One rumor is that Israel would strike Iran's nuclear program as a result (something many countries would like to go away), though I am not sure how practically possible that is.

As noted this is all essentially the result of Iran both funding and coordinating large numbers of attacks (mostly missiles) on Israel through it's proxies. Traditionally this was primarily done from Gaza via Hamas and other groups.  Recently it has mostly been from Lebanon, but they are also heavily involved in the Houti's shooting at shipping in the gulf of Aden (Yemen).

P3PPY
P3PPY GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
4/14/24 8:07 a.m.

I want to be sure to thank you guys for the rundown on this topic. Due to my anxiety issues I actively avoid watching the news, but I do like to keep abreast of certain topics like these. So thanks!

Wally (Forum Supporter)
Wally (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
4/14/24 8:49 a.m.

In reply to P3PPY :

Same here. It was much better to get the summary here instead of wading into the news last night and not sleeping. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
4/14/24 11:09 a.m.

A bit more of an official update:

Iran fired 185 missiles, 36 cruise missiles and 110 surface-to-surface missiles (according to preliminary estimates) towards Israel. The attack lasted 5-6 hours.

▪️Israeli mass media claim that 99% of launched missiles and drones have been intercepted. At the same time, most of them were shot down in mid-flight. 31 people were injured in Israel.

▪️Where did they attack from? Missiles and drones have been launched from Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Yemen and Iraq.

▪️This was the first time that Iran fired at Israel from its own territory.

▪️Why did they attack? Iran says it is a "response" to Israel's recent shelling of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which killed one of its generals.

▪️The reaction of the West: the EU, the USA, the UN reacted strongly - they condemned (!) the attack. In addition, meetings of the G7 and the UN are being convened.

▪️The response to the attack is in question: the US will not participate in offensive operations against Iran, - Biden. The White House also calls for a "careful" response.
 

----

More indication Israel plans to retaliate(?).  Considering the massive size of the attack, and that much of it came directly from Iran its a bit of "It will kind of look bad if they just take it" kind of situation and could be said to encourage such attacks.  The US is encouraging no response.

Considering the results of the attack, I would expect an Israeli attack would goes out of it's way to avoid civilian casualties and even significant military casualties.  There also might be a bit of "Look what we are capable of, and there is pretty much nothing you can do about it" kind of thing.

It's basically a giant D swinging competition (probably not the words 02 would use, but a lot of this stuff is basically that).  Now, if they would just concentrate on seeing who could build the tallest building to see who has the biggest one....  (reference to another thread)

 

It would seem the active use of US forces (and Jordanian) to shoot some of the attack would seem to violate this demand, but I cannot imagine it would result in anything (more blustering):

Iran warned Israel’s partners, particularly the United States and Jordan, not to intervene in Iran’s attack against Israel. Supreme National Security Council-affiliated media warned the United States against intervening in Iran’s attack, claiming that Iran has prepared ballistic missile platforms to target “several US bases in the region.”[20] The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN similarly warned the United States to “stay away” from the conflict between Iran and Israel.[21] The United States and the United Kingdom have intercepted over 100 drones outside of Israeli airspace at the time of this writing.[22] IRGC-affiliated media separately warned Jordan that it will be Iran’s “next target” if it participates in an Israeli response to Iran’s attack.[23] Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Ashtiani warned that Iran will give a “decisive response” to any country that allows Israel to use its airspace or territory to conduct a counterattack against Iran.[24] Israeli media reported that Jordanian aircraft shot down Iranian drones headed toward Israel over northern and central Jordan.[25]

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