Here is a little better explanation of Russia's defeat at the Siversky Donets River crossing.
Yahoo.com: Ukraine’s stymies Russian efforts to cut off Luhansk in Bilohorivka
Here is a little better explanation of Russia's defeat at the Siversky Donets River crossing.
Yahoo.com: Ukraine’s stymies Russian efforts to cut off Luhansk in Bilohorivka
Aside from the decent write-up of the events there (and the amazing lack of even basic combat doctrine by the Russian forces), I found the very end pretty interesting that well-known bloggers are now publicly calling out the Russian military and/or its leadership.
It seems like Recep Erdogan want's a green light to go kill some Kurds who were our only real ally in Syria and Iraq who(m)? we seem to keep hanging out to dry.
Yahoo.com: US frustrated over ‘problematic’ NATO ally Turkey
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
He needs the Kurds to justify his stupid atrocities, and decisions.
It's all part of the blame game. Guys like him and Hitler, oops I forgot Putin. Always need someone else to blame.
Appears the cracks in Putin's facade are beginning to grow: Russian diplomat in Geneva resigns
*Edited link
Fantastic to see high level folks in the Russian government produce such a scathing rebuke. This needs to lead to regime change and that won't happen without more actions like this.
I also have to commend the bravery as I imagine we are about to read that he fell down the stairs and shot himself in the head twice.
In reply to 84FSP :
Russia has had at least three different regime changes in the past century-ish, could potentially count five or six. Either way it is just like that song by The Who.
Not a lot going on on the front that is different:
- Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have secured local advances to the north and west of Popasna since at least May 20. Russian forces likely seek to push further west toward Bakhmut and north to support the encirclement of Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to achieve rapid advances.
- Russian forces will likely attempt to hold positions west of the Siverskyi Donets River against Ukrainian attacks (rather than retreating across the river) to prevent further Ukrainian advances from threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum.
- Russian occupying forces continued filtration and deportation procedures in and around Mariupol.
- Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis.
And this note:
Occupation authorities introduced Russian ruble in Kherson region from today
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:My inner conspiracy theorist marvels at the timing of the end of US operations in Afghanistan and the start of hostilities in Ukraine with regards to the US military industrial complex...
More likely that they're just both driven by the presidential election cycle. Biden comes into office promising to pull out of Afghanistan, and Putin sees him as a weak president who don't do much to stop him.
In reply to codrus (Forum Supporter) :
The decision and timeline to pull out of Afghanistan happened before the election, though.
I have conspiracy theories but irrelevant to forum.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:My inner conspiracy theorist marvels at the timing of the end of US operations in Afghanistan and the start of hostilities in Ukraine with regards to the US military industrial complex...
More likely that they're just both driven by the presidential election cycle. Biden comes into office promising to pull out of Afghanistan, and Putin sees him as a weak president who don't do much to stop him.
Possibly... If Zelenskyy had not turned into a good leader and managed to rally his people and then the world around him, it's likely nobody in the west would have done anything substantial to stop Putin. Who happened to be the POTUS didn't really matter. Putin was generally counting on the divisiveness of US politics to generally paralyze the US govt from taking any action and as an extension, NATO as well. That was probably an accurate assumption, had Ukrainian forces not actually put up adequate resistance.
The US and NATO had also been training and helping the Ukrainian military after the 2014 Crimea invasion. It seems Putin also miscalculated how much help had been given.
aircooled said:Not a lot going on on the front that is different:
- Ukrainian sources confirmed that Russian forces have secured local advances to the north and west of Popasna since at least May 20. Russian forces likely seek to push further west toward Bakhmut and north to support the encirclement of Severodonetsk but remain unlikely to achieve rapid advances.
- Russian forces will likely attempt to hold positions west of the Siverskyi Donets River against Ukrainian attacks (rather than retreating across the river) to prevent further Ukrainian advances from threatening Russian lines of communication to Izyum.
- Russian occupying forces continued filtration and deportation procedures in and around Mariupol.
- Russian forces are likely preparing to resume offensives on the southern axis.
And this note:
Occupation authorities introduced Russian ruble in Kherson region from today
Source?
If you want to read the full assessment: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-22
On the second one: I hear it's not going over so well with the populace...
(apparently there was a bit of rumor that this was happening previously, and didn't)
If the Russian military does collapse, are there any warning signs ahead of time, or is it something that will only seem obvious in hindsight? It sounds like morale is low, and the soldiers are not happy about being cannon fodder, but this also appears to be business as usual with them. There is the occasional story about soldiers refusing orders or shooting themselves to get out of fighting, which I'd think is a sign, but honestly, they've held together a lot longer than I thought they would.
In reply to eastsideTim :
Traditionally, military coups do not begin in the rank-and-file, but rather with a narrow group of generals or a somewhat wider conspiracy of colonels and other field officers. From what I'm hearing, the officers seem to be more likely to be blindly following orders; the enlisted ranks seem to be the source of the greatest discontent. This points to a mutiny as a more likely outcome, either in individual units or more broadly. This has happened in Russia before (the mutiny on the battleship Potemkin in 1905 being the most famous example), and there have been recent reports of isolated incidents, though I haven't seen anything definitive suggesting it's actively spreading, at least not in any organized manner.
Some interesting info. Of note is that this is coming from Ukrainian intelligence and should be taken with a bit of suspicion:
Putin survived an assassination attempt after he invaded, Ukrainian intelligence official says
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-survived-assassination-attempt-invaded-123317737.html
In another article, they talked about a growing opposition and potential overthrow within Russia, but how much of that is psyops and how much is reality is hard to say.
As anticipated, the US populace is not going to remain substantively supportive of Ukraine if they perceive doing so will impact them directly. New polling illustrates this fairly clearly. Whether or not the actual causes of current US economic issues are directly related to the situation in Ukraine, if the US people believe them to be, it will be increasingly politically difficult to push multi-billion dollar aid packages out. This is the sort of weakness in democratic systems that Russia is well aware of and will certainly seek to exploit by pushing a narrative linking Western economic problems with support for Ukraine. For its part, Ukraine's government should be anticipating a slackening of direct military support over the coming months (and particularly as the US elections get closer), and may need to tailor policy choices to manage this. A number of Western countries funneling support to Ukraine have been doing so from existing stocks of equipment and material, but these are not infinite, and costs of new production will be substantial; whether Western populations are willing to allocate money for new production intended for Ukraine directly remains to be seen. It is likely that support for Ukraine and Western economic recovery will increasingly be framed as an either/or choice by opposition politicians seeking political advantage.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I'd been thinking about this. I don't want to make this thread patio material, but I am assuming one of Putin's goals is to hold on until at least November, at which point Ukraine may start seeing less support from the US. I am also assuming the Ukrainian leadership also knows of this informal deadline and is planning appropriately.
I'm in the privileged position of being able to handle the inflation we are seeing right now, but I know it is pushing a lot of people much closer to the edge, and if it ends up being conflated with our support of the Ukrainians (and sanctions against Russia), a lot of people are going to vote with their wallets so they can simply get by in the short term, even if in the long term, it may be a poor decision.
In reply to eastsideTim :
I don't see a problem with discussing the possible impact of US elections on the situation in Ukraine in the abstract; it's a real factor and one that has to be considered for thorough analysis. Obviously, it could go horribly wrong if people aren't careful....
That said, there's a case to be made for linking the two, but there are also unrelated factors that point to correlation not equaling causation. The fundamental problem is that the vast bulk of the US population (and that of other Western countries) are not doing careful analysis - they are hearing a few tidbits of information and either drawing simplistic conclusions or taking others' opinions as fact. Being a state that relies on voters to select its leadership (and thus to influence policy), politicians going into elections have to account for a poorly-informed populace looking for simple answers in their proposed policies if they want to have a chance of winning.
Russia is well aware of its ability to steer the international narrative in such as way as to exploit this situation to their own advantage. Simply put, the more people in the West believe that support for Ukraine is costing them money and endangering their standards of living, the less they will support continuing Western assistance. For Russia, this is one of the few options available to undermine Western efforts, much as the Soviets used support for the anti-nuclear movement in Western Europe to weaken NATO efforts to strengthen its defensive capabilities with tactical nuclear weapons in the 1970s and 80s; they couldn't stop the weapons being deployed directly, so they aimed at reducing the political will of leaders to do so by creating a domestic political threat to their position in power.
It seems that the article quoted on the previous page attempted to link the economic issues facing this country and the aid to Ukraine; namely, accusing Rand Paul's lack of support for the spending bill to Ukraine as being supportive of Putin. It's impossible to read Mr. Paul's mind, but given his long track record as a fairly libertarian voter, it's not a surprising stance for him to take- and does not mean he "supports Putin".
Saying "if you're not with us, you're against us" is simplistic and wrong. But any sort of nuance is lost in the propaganda.
As for the US voters' concerns and the upcoming elections, there is definitely a connection to be made. Much of the current inflationary issues were exacerbated by the over indulgent relief packages (this point is accepted even by many on the left), so additional funding to aid Ukraine that could add additional inflationary pressures here in the US (where, as was noted, much of that money will actually be spent) is rightly looked at with concern. Politicians pontificating about not supporting Russian oil and gas exports cast a blind eye towards those people trying to afford gasoline and heat, with no real answers other than, "suck it up buttercup, it's for the good of the Ukrainians".
It think it will be interesting to watch the social media highlights and see if we see a hint of a "turn" on the situation. Any turn could of course be pushed heavily by Russia and maybe China, which I sure still have influence in that area. Of course, I am certain Ukraine is not exactly innocent in the social manipulation game (they have shown a lot of proficiency against Russia of course). I have seen no sign of any of it myself, but we will see.
The other aspect of the monetary support that might cause a wedge, and really is a very relevant point, is accounting of how it is spent. From what I can tell, there is a fair amount of just shoveling money (e.g. one silly example is many millions on Ukrainian translators for refugees) and as I have pointed out numerous times, Ukraine, historically, is very much a hot bed of corruption. Maybe the current situation adjusts that a bit, but as thing settle a bit more I could certainly see that being an issue. One good (or somewhat twisted) story about large amounts of US dollars going into the pocket of a Ukrainian kleptocract or businessman, could have a huge effect.
Honestly I do not see US spending for Ukraine to be affected by election cycles in the near-term. Rand Paul and a few others are relatively isolated and not well understood by the general population. They adhere admirably to the rules the way they were written rather than to the game the way it's expected that you play it. Either way, the financial stsate of the country is only likely be improved by sending money to Ukraine who will then buy US military and medical hardware from us.
An update with some interesting stuff. The offensive seems to continue winding down to a hold. The announcement of war crimes trails against Ukrainians in Mariupol seems to be a response to the trail of the Russians caught on tape shooting civilians.
- Russian forces have likely abandoned efforts to encircle large Ukrainian formations in eastern Ukraine and are instead attempting to secure smaller encirclements and focus on Severodonetsk.
- This change in the Russian approach is enabling gradual advances—but at the cost of abandoning several intended lines of advance and abandoning the Kremlin’s intended deep encirclement of Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces are likely conducting a controlled withdrawal southwest of Popasna near Bakhmut to protect Ukrainian supply lines against Russian offensives in the southeast of Bakhmut.
- Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol announced that they will hold war crimes trials against Ukrainian soldiers in Mariupol in a likely effort to strengthen judicial control of the city and support false Kremlin narratives of Ukrainian crimes.
- Russian forces are attempting to retake Ternova in northern Kharkiv Oblast and seek to stabilize defensive positions near the Russian border against the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Russian forces are forming reserves and deploying S-400 missile systems in northwest Crimea to reinforce the southern axis.
- Several DNR servicemen openly released a video appeal to DNR leader Denis Pushilin stating they have been forced into combat operations without proper support, indicating increasing demoralization among Russian and proxy forces.
There are pics of Russia delivering T-62s into the southern region. Yes, T-62's... first operation in 1962...
"There are pics of Russia delivering T-62s into the southern region. Yes, T-62's... first operation in 1962... "
But those will work in the occupied areas, freeing up modern tanks for the Russian Front.
Possibly, but also possibly not:
T-62 tanks with additional DIY armor spotted in Polohy district of Zaporizhzhia region
This is the the northern part of southern occupation area, and an area they are a likely at least hardening for defense (they likely have given up attacking in that area?). I would guess they might setup them up as sort of dug in semi-mobile pill boxes. I will say, I would NOT what to be crewing one!!
Plopping T-62's in town squared etc. to keep the populace intimidated could have some use, but I would worry the Ukrainians would start parting them out or lighting them on fire when the crew gets drunk (
)
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