History in the Making: Russian Invasion

Just heard there were explosions at an airfield in Belarus that the Russians were launching attacks from.  

In reply to 02Pilot :

Or could that rusty building in the middle left be a weapons storage facility that blew up?

VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

Or could that rusty building in the middle left be a weapons storage facility that blew up?

But why would the Mig (or Su) in the dugout directly across from it appear untouched?  Or aircraft farther down the line appear obliterated randomly, for that matter.  

Obviously a targeted strike.  I believe it was mentioned here that the HIMARS would not be fired into Russia, so perhaps a domestic product or another provided weapon system with reasonable precision.  

From Reuters:

Russia says Swiss 'no longer neutral', can't act as go-between with Ukraine

Russia Swiss

In reply to jmabarone :

I just meant maybe that big crater where the obliterated building used to be could be caused by a secondary explosion.

Noddaz said:

From Reuters:

Russia says Swiss 'no longer neutral', can't act as go-between with Ukraine

Russia Swiss

If your actions have caused the Swiss to abandon their neutrality, it might be time to reconsider them.

VolvoHeretic said:

In reply to jmabarone :

I just meant maybe that big crater where the obliterated building used to be could be caused by a secondary explosion.

Roger that

This was not a HIMARS strike. The target is well beyond the range of every available munition for that system (except ATACMS, which Ukraine does not have). It is also beyond the range of a Harpoon or Neptune launched from Ukrainian-controlled territory. There is talk that it may be a low-volume production indigenous SRBM, but that remains speculation from what I've seen publicly. The other options being floated are a drone strike (highly unlikely due to the size of the detonations) or a spec ops/partisan operation (possible, though again the size of the blasts would be beyond what could be man-carried to the target, and the craters seem to indicate suboptimal placement of the explosives).

I see at least three craters, all of similar size. The video shows at least two simultaneous explosions, again of similar size. This clearly suggests a deliberate detonation of munitions, not an accident. As noted earlier, the craters are at least 17.5m in diameter, with primary blast damage extending out about 200-250m by my crude measurement. I saw at least one video of secondary blast damage (windows blown out) on a building a kilometer from the impact area (I do not know if this was corroborated by geolocation, so consider unconfirmed). All this suggests a warhead of considerable size - if I had to guess, I'd think somewhere around 1,000lbs., but I am far from an expert on this.

Edit: While not directly applicable here, I was reminded of this site that might be useful for getting a basic understanding of how explosives cause damage: http://characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/

jmabarone said:

But why would the Mig (or Su) in the dugout directly across from it appear untouched?  Or aircraft farther down the line appear obliterated randomly, for that matter.  

 

Airplane might have been flying at the time of the strike, perhaps...?

stroker said:

jmabarone said:

But why would the Mig (or Su) in the dugout directly across from it appear untouched?  Or aircraft farther down the line appear obliterated randomly, for that matter.  

 

Airplane might have been flying at the time of the strike, perhaps...?

It may have also been hit, but lucky enough not to have caught fire.  With the resolution of the pictures, can't really whether it has taken more minor damage.  Kind of reminds me of some of the random damage seen when a tornado hits.

In other news: Yahoo.com: Belarus Defense ministry comments on nighttime explosions at Zyabrovka airfield

Since Ukraine can evidently reach out and touch Crimea, maybe it's time to go after the Black Sea Russian Subs in Sevastopol.

So... some more developments:

• Russian officials remain confused about the August 9 attack on the Saki Air Base in Russian-occupied Crimea, over 225km behind Russian lines, which destroyed at least eight Russian aircraft and multiple buildings.
• The Kremlin’s changing plans suggest that occupying forces are most likely to move up the date of the annexation referenda in occupied Ukraine. Annexation makes it harder to imagine any negotiated settlement to the war on any terms that Ukraine or the West could accept, demonstrating that the Kremlin is fundamentally unserious about ending the war on any terms short of a Ukrainian surrender.
• Iran reportedly began training Russian forces on Iranian UAV systems in recent weeks, demonstrating the deepening military cooperation between Iran and Russia.

And this...

Russia and Iran have expanded their strategic partnership since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Senior Russian and Iranian officials have met frequently in recent months to boost cooperation and sign economic and military agreements. Moscow and Tehran have long cooperated when their interests have aligned, especially in opposing the US in the Middle East, but their recent engagements highlight more concerted efforts to strengthen their partnership. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Ebrahim Raisi *have *spoken *at least *four times since the invasion began—more than either individual has engaged most other world leaders. Putin visited Tehran in July 2022, marking his first foreign travel outside the territory of the former Soviet Union since the war began. These interactions reflect a deepening and potentially more balanced relationship wherein Russia is no longer the dominant party. This partnership will likely challenge US and allied interests in Europe, the Middle East, and around the globe.

You would have to imagine this would put a final stake in what might be called the "wildly unrealistic" Iranian nuclear deal.

02Pilot said:

This was not a HIMARS strike. The target is well beyond the range of every available munition for that system (except ATACMS, which Ukraine does not have). It is also beyond the range of a Harpoon or Neptune launched from Ukrainian-controlled territory. There is talk that it may be a low-volume production indigenous SRBM, but that remains speculation from what I've seen publicly. The other options being floated are a drone strike (highly unlikely due to the size of the detonations) or a spec ops/partisan operation (possible, though again the size of the blasts would be beyond what could be man-carried to the target, and the craters seem to indicate suboptimal placement of the explosives).

I see at least three craters, all of similar size. The video shows at least two simultaneous explosions, again of similar size. This clearly suggests a deliberate detonation of munitions, not an accident. As noted earlier, the craters are at least 17.5m in diameter, with primary blast damage extending out about 200-250m by my crude measurement. I saw at least one video of secondary blast damage (windows blown out) on a building a kilometer from the impact area (I do not know if this was corroborated by geolocation, so consider unconfirmed). All this suggests a warhead of considerable size - if I had to guess, I'd think somewhere around 1,000lbs., but I am far from an expert on this.

Edit: While not directly applicable here, I was reminded of this site that might be useful for getting a basic understanding of how explosives cause damage: http://characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/

Range (In excess of 225kms): check

Payload (1000lbs):  Check

Surprised the heck out of the world that Ukraine had one, AND MOD officials popping off with "this is just the beginning"?:  Check.

I'm putting my money on Ukraine just finished their SAPSAN/HRIM-2 development, and we just saw their first successful test.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

02Pilot said:

This was not a HIMARS strike. The target is well beyond the range of every available munition for that system (except ATACMS, which Ukraine does not have). It is also beyond the range of a Harpoon or Neptune launched from Ukrainian-controlled territory. There is talk that it may be a low-volume production indigenous SRBM, but that remains speculation from what I've seen publicly. The other options being floated are a drone strike (highly unlikely due to the size of the detonations) or a spec ops/partisan operation (possible, though again the size of the blasts would be beyond what could be man-carried to the target, and the craters seem to indicate suboptimal placement of the explosives).

I see at least three craters, all of similar size. The video shows at least two simultaneous explosions, again of similar size. This clearly suggests a deliberate detonation of munitions, not an accident. As noted earlier, the craters are at least 17.5m in diameter, with primary blast damage extending out about 200-250m by my crude measurement. I saw at least one video of secondary blast damage (windows blown out) on a building a kilometer from the impact area (I do not know if this was corroborated by geolocation, so consider unconfirmed). All this suggests a warhead of considerable size - if I had to guess, I'd think somewhere around 1,000lbs., but I am far from an expert on this.

Edit: While not directly applicable here, I was reminded of this site that might be useful for getting a basic understanding of how explosives cause damage: http://characterisationexplosiveweapons.org/

Range (In excess of 225kms): check

Payload (1000lbs):  Check

Surprised the heck out of the world that Ukraine had one, AND MOD officials popping off with "this is just the beginning"?:  Check.

I'm putting my money on Ukraine just finished their SAPSAN/HRIM-2 development, and we just saw their first successful test.

Certainly possible, though it's also very much in Ukraine's interest to be ambiguous about what was used and how many they have. Hrim-2 seems a leading candidate. The only other thing I can come up with that's reasonably plausible is multiple VBIEDs, possibly pre-rigged with remotely triggered explosives. The only way that scenario works is if Ukrainian SF/partisans managed to plant the explosives in Russian aviation service vehicles covertly, then waited for the Russians to drive them into the desired areas before detonating.

jmabarone said:

Obviously a targeted strike.  I believe it was mentioned here that the HIMARS would not be fired into Russia...

Ukraine does not view Crimea as russia, and that viewpoint seems to be shared with most of the developed world. Whatever happened, it could be argued that it was not "fired into russia".

Any thoughts about the propaganda value of this happening in the daytime, in sight of a tourist area?  Seems that may have been deliberate.  A lot of Russian tourists are going to be going home (to the cities) and say what they saw.

DarkMonohue said:

jmabarone said:

Obviously a targeted strike.  I believe it was mentioned here that the HIMARS would not be fired into Russia...

Ukraine does not view Crimea as russia, and that viewpoint seems to be shared with most of the developed world. Whatever happened, it could be argued that it was not "fired into russia".

 

I thought this was in Russia, not Crimea, my bad.  

eastsideTim said:

Any thoughts about the propaganda value of this happening in the daytime, in sight of a tourist area?  Seems that may have been deliberate.  A lot of Russian tourists are going to be going home (to the cities) and say what they saw.

I agree, I don't think that was a coincidence. 

jmabarone said:

DarkMonohue said:

jmabarone said:

Obviously a targeted strike.  I believe it was mentioned here that the HIMARS would not be fired into Russia...

Ukraine does not view Crimea as russia, and that viewpoint seems to be shared with most of the developed world. Whatever happened, it could be argued that it was not "fired into russia".

 

I thought this was in Russia, not Crimea, my bad.  

That's ok.  For some reason Russia thinks that Crimea is Russia also.  

eastsideTim said:

stroker said:

jmabarone said:

But why would the Mig (or Su) in the dugout directly across from it appear untouched?  Or aircraft farther down the line appear obliterated randomly, for that matter.  

 

Airplane might have been flying at the time of the strike, perhaps...?

It may have also been hit, but lucky enough not to have caught fire.  With the resolution of the pictures, can't really whether it has taken more minor damage.  Kind of reminds me of some of the random damage seen when a tornado hits.

Explosions can be unpredictable. Like how I was standing in front of a 50 ton press when a axle bearing I was trying to remove exploded, sending bearing shrapnel all over the shop, yet none of it hit my lucky ass. 

Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:

eastsideTim said:

stroker said:

jmabarone said:

But why would the Mig (or Su) in the dugout directly across from it appear untouched?  Or aircraft farther down the line appear obliterated randomly, for that matter.  

 

Airplane might have been flying at the time of the strike, perhaps...?

It may have also been hit, but lucky enough not to have caught fire.  With the resolution of the pictures, can't really whether it has taken more minor damage.  Kind of reminds me of some of the random damage seen when a tornado hits.

Explosions can be unpredictable. Like how I was standing in front of a 50 ton press when a axle bearing I was trying to remove exploded, sending bearing shrapnel all over the shop, yet none of it hit my lucky ass. 

Especially when dealing with warhead casings that are not designed with fragmentation or shaping the charge in some way in mind, as would be the case here. These weapons, whatever they were, were designed to destroy targets primarily with blast; any fragmentation effect would be a secondary bonus. Standard casings tend to blow apart unevenly in a few large pieces and many extremely tiny ones, but there's a high degree of unpredictability. That said, the presence of multiple earth revetments would cause the blast wave in deflect in somewhat unpredictable ways, which could account for the undamaged aircraft in close proximity to the POI.

Also, we're looking at a 2 dimensional image. It looks like a number of those jets may have been in nooks with embankments on either side. Thus the substantial gap between them. depending on the geometry involved, much of the shock wave would have passed overhead.   

Is Ukraine being allowed to get their grain shipments out? If not, given the extended range that they've exhibited, they could conceivably hold parts of Crimea hostage. "every shot fired at our ships will result in another missile fired into your port/airfield" 

Yes, a number of grain ships have left Odessa.  Of course much of "Ukrainian" grain was stolen by the Russians.

I would be curious how the Russians would react if the Ukrainians dropped a few of these in a major Russian city.  I suspect they would be highly offended at how inappropriate such an attack would be and would of course threaten the use of nukes. (Ignoring of course the fact that the Russians have been doing the exact same thing for the entire war).

I am also curious if the Russians have any anti-ballistic missile capability (e.g. American Patriot system).  I know they have some sort of system around Moscow, which may not be entirely effective, but I don't think they have any in the field.  I don't think the S-300 or S-400 have that capability.  This new capability could make Crimea at least, a very dangerous place to have any sort of concentration of Russian forces / assets.

In reply to aircooled :

I think (but could be wrong) that some of the upgrades from the S-300 to the S-400 were specifically related to anti-ballistic missile functionality.  Possibly related to the Russians seeing Patriots in action in the Middle East.