History in the Making: Russian Invasion

aircooled said:

• The Kremlin’s planned annexation of occupied Ukraine may take place before or shortly after October 1, the start of Russia’s normal fall conscription cycle, to enable the forced conscription of Ukrainian civilians to fight against Ukraine.

I cannot imagine being the person to hand them a loaded gun. What are the chances they DON'T use it against the Russians??

There are not a lot of people left in the annexation areas who are not pro-Russian. Russia has made sure of that.   The occupied areas are the areas where that would be an issue.

NO GAS FOR YOU!!!!

(Nord Stream leak):

What does Russia gain by blowing up the pipeline? I mean they control the flow of gas so how does blowing it up help them?

In reply to 93EXCivic :

They force Europe's hand on a very cold winter and offer to reconnect/repair the pipeline in exchange for Europe's ending support for Ukraine.

In reply to stroker :

How is that any different then before? They don't allow gas to flow from Russia without Europe ending their support for Ukraine.

Even simpler is that they want to get some of the sanctions taken off of Russia. 

This is what they tried with the various issues they have had with the pipeline in the recent past.  Pump station breaks down, no gas, they claim they cannot repair it because of the sanctions, think of the freezing children in Europe, remove the sanctions so we can repair it.

At this point I'm starting to wonder if Putin and all the oligarchs getting the 1700s French royalty/nobility treatment may be one way out of this mess:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/europe/putin-draft-analysis-intl/index.html
 

GameboyRMH said:

At this point I'm starting to wonder if Putin and all the oligarchs getting the 1700s French royalty/nobility treatment may be one way out of this mess:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/europe/putin-draft-analysis-intl/index.html
 

Because the French Revolution worked out so well....

Of course, he was beaten by the Russians, so that means Putin's successor will be defeated by...wait, the French?

In reply to 02Pilot :

If you are referring to Waterloo that was the British. 

never mind

In reply to frenchyd :

I'm not. The defeat of Napoleon's army was initiated by the failed invasion of Russia. The long retreat across Europe that culminated in the first defeat of Napoleon by the Sixth Coalition was a direct consequence. Waterloo was the final defeat after the escape from Elba and the formation of the Seventh Coalition.

This is the famous map charting the losses of the French army in 1812-3.

Having every Sharpe novel, I can say with authority that Napoleon was defeated by Redcoats and Baker rifles.,

In reply to bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) :

Never read the books, but I enjoyed the show when it was on PBS here a million years ago.

02Pilot said:

GameboyRMH said:

At this point I'm starting to wonder if Putin and all the oligarchs getting the 1700s French royalty/nobility treatment may be one way out of this mess:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/27/europe/putin-draft-analysis-intl/index.html
 

Because the French Revolution worked out so well....

Better than the last few Russian ones, anyway.

I believe The Who wrote a song that describes Russian history well.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

New boss, old boss, samey same.

Looks like they are confirming two explosions (separated by 17 hours) underwater near the pipeline before the leak.

Still a bit strange.  There SHOULD be no oxygen(?) to allow an explosion in the pipeline even if there was an ignition source.  Bombing it of course would take a good level of sophistication. 

The first explosion was recorded at 02:03 on the night of Monday and the second at 19:04 on Monday evening.

The warnings about the gas leaks came from the Maritime Administration at 1:52 p.m. and 8:41 p.m. on Monday, respectively, after ships detected bubbles on the surface.

SVT has obtained the coordinates of the measured explosions and they are in the same area where the gas leaks were registered.

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-avslojar-tva-explosioner-intill-nord-stream

In reply to aircooled :

No need for an explosion in the pipeline. Plenty of explosives work underwater, and the shockwave from the blast could easily rupture the pipe from the outside.

Probably just an old sea mine (or 2) that didn't get removed and conveniently ended up right on top of the pipe line.  

02Pilot said:

In reply to frenchyd :

I'm not. The defeat of Napoleon's army was initiated by the failed invasion of Russia. The long retreat across Europe that culminated in the first defeat of Napoleon by the Sixth Coalition was a direct consequence. Waterloo was the final defeat after the escape from Elba and the formation of the Seventh Coalition.

This is the famous map charting the losses of the French army in 1812-3.

Listen, it was really cold, ok?

I read this morning that #1 was already shut off last month, and #2 never came online. And this winter vs last winter, Europe has already reduced their need of Russia's gas from 40% to under 10% and have hit more than 80% storage capacity and 90% in some places. 

If this is true, what would be the point of the Ruskies sabotaging the pipeline?

In reply to z31maniac :

To cry "woe is me! they are attacking our way of life" and similar things?

Crocodile tears.

In reply to z31maniac :

They're a bully who constantly plays the victim card.  It could let them say someone else did it.  It could be they just want to break their toy and go home.  It could also be a ploy like earlier when they had "maintenance" issues that could not be dealt with without lifting sanctions.

z31maniac said:

I read this morning that #1 was already shut off last month, and #2 never came online. And this winter vs last winter, Europe has already reduced their need of Russia's gas from 40% to under 10% and have hit more than 80% storage capacity and 90% in some places. 

If this is true, what would be the point of the Ruskies sabotaging the pipeline?

Serious question, could the Biden administration buy up oil and NG (which would turn on producers stateside) and ship it to Europe via ship like now? I don't have a good concept of the volumes, but it has to be doable.

LNG export capacity is slow to build and currently sold out.  They turned that spiggot on in February.  The real issue is Gas not oil as I understand  it.  Oil is far easier and far more available.