Some interesting observations on tanks:
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Logistics
Ignoring the individual tank capabilities and export changes the tanks might need, logistics is the long pole in the tent.
First, there is ammo – the thing that makes a tank useful. The M1 and Leopard use the same type of 120mm shell, but the Challenger’s 120mm gun is a rifled bore that requires unique ammo. Speaking of uniqueness, the Polish PT-91 tank uses 125mm ammo.
Then there are parts—the things that make the tanks function. This tank commitment spans 4 types, each from a different nation.
The M1 tank supply chain is probably the most painful since it’s on the other side of the world. The logistical work to keep this mish-mash tank team running is going to be brutal once they are all delivered and deployed.
When?
Tanks won’t magically show up in Ukraine, but the Europeans appear to have a plan to speed things up.
On the other end of the spectrum is the US. The plan right now is for M1 tanks to show up sometime in 2023 or 2024—maybe. Why? The Pentagon has to order them first because they “just don’t have these tanks available in excess in our U.S. stocks.” We call BS for a few reasons:
aircooled said:
Some interesting observations on tanks:
Speaking of uniqueness, the Polish PT-91 tank uses 125mm ammo.
The PT-91 is probably going to be the easiest to integrate. It's on T72 chassis, and I believe uses the same ammo for its main gun. It does have a different style of autoloader from a T72, so hopefully it won't be competing in "turret tossing for distance".
In reply to aircooled :
My understanding is the tanks would have to be stripped of the DU armor anyway so none of those could be just shipped over. Did the early M1s have the DU also?
stroker
PowerDork
1/30/23 4:48 p.m.
Stampie said:
In reply to aircooled :
My understanding is the tanks would have to be stripped of the DU armor anyway so none of those could be just shipped over. Did the early M1s have the DU also?
I was taking Army ROTC at the time was the original M1 was introduced. It used whatever variant of "Chobham" armor available at that time. I believe it used a series of plates made of various metals/ceramics but I don't think it used DU for armor.
Not strictly dealing with the Ukraine situation, but this BBC piece on Russian influence operations in Africa is an example of how the Russians are creatively using asymmetric warfare (in the broadest sense) to offset Western support for Ukraine and restrictions on Russian media by complicating their diplomatic and military efforts elsewhere.
red_stapler said:
"Real Communism" is kinda the end goal that requires a lot of work (and power) to acheive. A society like Star Trek isn't going to just spontaneously happen, and there are a lot of people who will fight against going in that direction.
"Real communism" is impossible. It works on a small scale (say the traditional family in which one parent works, one parent looks after the kids, the kids do their growing up thing), but once you get larger than that people are generally not interested in giving up the product of their work for the "general good" of other people they do not personally know. This is human nature.
Trek is generally viewed as depicting a "post-scarcity society", in which technology has advanced to the point where the cost of the goods that any individual demands is so low that it's effectively free. Even if that's possible, it bears very little resemblance to the societies that Marx and Lenin were talking about -- it's not the community working as a whole to support everyone, it's just that there's so much free stuff that anyone can have anything they want.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
red_stapler said:
"Real Communism" is kinda the end goal that requires a lot of work (and power) to acheive. A society like Star Trek isn't going to just spontaneously happen, and there are a lot of people who will fight against going in that direction.
"Real communism" is impossible. It works on a small scale (say the traditional family in which one parent works, one parent looks after the kids, the kids do their growing up thing), but once you get larger than that people are generally not interested in giving up the product of their work for the "general good" of other people they do not personally know. This is human nature.
Trek is generally viewed as depicting a "post-scarcity society", in which technology has advanced to the point where the cost of the goods that any individual demands is so low that it's effectively free. Even if that's possible, it bears very little resemblance to the societies that Marx and Lenin were talking about -- it's not the community working as a whole to support everyone, it's just that there's so much free stuff that anyone can have anything they want.
Unfortunately, this is what society will look like when "there's so much free stuff that anyone can have anything they want."
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
red_stapler said:
"Real Communism" is kinda the end goal that requires a lot of work (and power) to acheive. A society like Star Trek isn't going to just spontaneously happen, and there are a lot of people who will fight against going in that direction.
"Real communism" is impossible. It works on a small scale (say the traditional family in which one parent works, one parent looks after the kids, the kids do their growing up thing), but once you get larger than that people are generally not interested in giving up the product of their work for the "general good" of other people they do not personally know. This is human nature.
People literally give up the product of their work for the "general good" of a few other people they don't personally know, right now, today.
codrus (Forum Supporter) said:
Trek is generally viewed as depicting a "post-scarcity society", in which technology has advanced to the point where the cost of the goods that any individual demands is so low that it's effectively free. Even if that's possible, it bears very little resemblance to the societies that Marx and Lenin were talking about -- it's not the community working as a whole to support everyone, it's just that there's so much free stuff that anyone can have anything they want.
I'd encourage you to look into the origins of the phrase "post-scarcity society"
communism as a thought exercise is great. It would work for machines/robots. Sadly, once you let people into the equation it all goes to hell in a handbasket.
As noted in the video above, the Bakhmud situation continues to slowly get worse and will eventually be very hard to hold if their advance continues.
The word is that the Russians will redeploy a lot of the Wagner group to the southern front and the Bakhmud area to taken over by the regular Russian army.
Still predictions of a coming Russian offensive, as well as a Ukrainian offensive.
One thought here: perhaps... the Ukrainians are waiting for the Russians to commit to an offensive then massively counter attack them as they do, which, as noted previously, worked very well for the Germans against the Russians.
Just as Soledar was captured:
Current:
came across this on another board:
Total Russian losses (so far):
Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC's) = 6,307 Lost
Troops Dead (not casualties) = 123,080
Tanks = 3,161 Lost
Artillery Systems = 2,154 Lost
Aircraft shot down = 290
Drones = 1,902
https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/01/25/ukraine-russian-losses-january-25/
Keep in mind that even if those numbers are inflated by double, that's 10X more men killed than the US has lost in combat since 1991. The US has lost 23 Abrams tanks since they joined the army 43 years ago. Two of those were destroyed by us personnel to prevent capture. No KIA's in any of the 21 lost in combat. Their losses are just staggering.
NOHOME
MegaDork
2/1/23 5:40 p.m.
In reply to bobzilla :
Not for russia. They live for this E36 M3. Read their history and literature; not really happy until they start dying like flies.
In reply to NOHOME :
Not just that, but being willing to commit wholesale meatgrindercide on their populace is proof of... some romantic concept of chivalrous battle or something. I kinda see it but it is also bleedin' stupid.
In reply to NOHOME :
I've read Tolstoy. I also understand why alcoholism is so rampant when that is their view on life. Drinking yourself into a stupor would be the only way to "survive".
bobzilla said:
came across this on another board:
Total Russian losses (so far):
Armoured Personnel Carriers (APC's) = 6,307 Lost
Troops Dead (not casualties) = 123,080
Tanks = 3,161 Lost
Artillery Systems = 2,154 Lost
Aircraft shot down = 290
Drones = 1,902
https://euroweeklynews.com/2023/01/25/ukraine-russian-losses-january-25/
Keep in mind that even if those numbers are inflated by double, that's 10X more men killed than the US has lost in combat since 1991. The US has lost 23 Abrams tanks since they joined the army 43 years ago. Two of those were destroyed by us personnel to prevent capture. No KIA's in any of the 21 lost in combat. Their losses are just staggering.
Those are impressive numbers. It would be interesting to compare Russian losses with Those from Ukraine. ( although I understand why they aren't available).
Just a silly side question. How would a crew destroy an Abrams tank? Enough so that it couldn't be reverse engineered?
I mean I can understand how to ruin it enough so it can't be used.
bobzilla said:
In reply to NOHOME :
I've read Tolstoy. I also understand why alcoholism is so rampant when that is their view on life. Drinking yourself into a stupor would be the only way to "survive".
Ha, my mother made me read Dostoevsky The Brothers Karamazov over one high school summer vacation, because, well, an idle mind is a dangerous thing... 1000 pages of continuous depression. Before that, she made my dad take me to the movie theater to see Dr Zhivago while still in junior high sitting with him in the glassed in smokers booth in the balcony that didn't have any ventilation. It was hard to see the screen through all of the smoke. This must explain why my favorite movie is one where everybody dies.
In reply to frenchyd :
When I went JRT with Rangers often I'd volunteer to act as a crew chief if we were short. On safety training day I'd teach them how to egress in case of a crash. Part of that job was also teaching them what had to be destroyed. On that plane two charges would take out the classified electronics and then I'd always point out the LOX tank as a charge on that would be a quick get out way to destroy the front half of the plane. It's not the metal stuff it's the electronics.
In reply to Stampie :
Correct. It's a tank. Armor, turret, gun. Nothing ground breaking in that part. The electronics, navigation and fire control is what was important. Can't reverse engineer electronics if they are melted and smashed.
stroker
PowerDork
2/2/23 12:26 p.m.
RX8driver said:
The armor is also a secret. https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/m1-abrams-tanks-in-u-s-inventory-have-armor-too-secret-to-send-to-ukraine
Some of the comments in that article are interesting. I like the suggestion that we swap M1's with Taiwan for M60A3's and then send the M60's to Ukraine.
Opti
SuperDork
2/3/23 8:31 a.m.
In reply to Opti :
I've read that he intends to deploy 500,000 troops as well. If this is going to be like ENEMY AT THE GATES. I really wouldn't want to be a Russian mother right now.
NOHOME
MegaDork
2/3/23 10:53 a.m.
frenchyd said:
In reply to Opti :
I've read that he intends to deploy 500,000 troops as well. If this is going to be like ENEMY AT THE GATES. I really wouldn't want to be a Russian mother right now.
No military experience, but a fair bit of project management experience.
There was an expression that I used a lot that drove upper management crazy. When some upper management dimwit demanded that a project get done faster and offered to toss more people in to the mix. I would tell them "Getting 9 pregnant ladies in the room will not get you a baby in a month. It will just make a mess.
Also, people are a lot like jello; you can hold it and gently mold it, but if you squeeze too hard or too fast, it oozes out your fingers and is impossible to put back together.
Putin is currently pretty much every dickhead upper management person I ever had to deal with who does not understand or care about the above.
Out of the 500k new guys, what is the ratio of frontline soldier versus logistics support to keep the front line working? So do they actually get even 100k russian soldiers in the trenches and who trained them how well? A scared,cold, hungry, injured, drunk, untrained soldier might actually negate the numbers increase in the trenches.
Wow , ^^ that's a good post.
