02Pilot
PowerDork
5/25/23 4:45 p.m.
Of all the possible outcomes, I would think revolution in Russia would be about the worst. Do you really want a country with thousands of nuclear warheads dissolving into chaos? Thankfully, there is no organized revolutionary movement at present, but rather small pockets of dissatisfied Russians electing to take action against the regime, but not for any particular cause or desired end-state.
The Bolsheviks organized and planned their successful revolution from outside the country, only moving in once Nicholas II had already been deposed by the first revolution that resulted in the provisional Kerensky government. I can't see any analog to that in today's Russia, as Putin's view of power is radically different than that of the last Romanov monarch.
I am still a bit amazed they managed to transition from the CCCP without any major nuclear incidents (that we know of!).
I think though, the self-interest, segmenting affect of the corruption in Russia may work as an advantage if there is some sort of "re-arrangement". I suspect, those in charge of sensitive areas, see those areas as more "theirs" than "the states", and as such will be more protective. It is, and has been after all, the source of their money and power.
The downside of that of course is, they also may tend to be less resistant to selling "things", which I think was the huge concern with the dissolution of the CCCP. That is, I believe, how Viktor Bout got a lot of the weapons he sold to people (which like resulted in many 10's of thousands of deaths). But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled WNBA.... yeah... (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)
aircooled said:
That is, I believe, how Viktor Bout got a lot of the weapons he sold to people (which like resulted in many 10's of thousands of deaths). But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled WNBA.... yeah... (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)
She's one of us and I'm glad she's home with her family.
If you want to get snarky about American hostages take it somewhere else.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
I disagree. His point is well taken. We traded a celebrity for an enabler of mass murder. We rolled over to a terrorist state. You are free to have your patriotic sensibilities offended by Aircooled's statement, just as Aircooled is free to post it. America, f-ck yeah!
We traded a celebrity, who traveled to Russia (which BTW, very much does not like people like her) seven days before they invaded Ukraine, when there were very strong warnings not to travel there, and very strong and obvious indication they would invade!! It's not like she was snatched off the street in New York City!
If a US citizen wants to willfully travel to a country known for taking political hostages RIGHT as they are about to invade a country we are supporting, so they can make a little money, I say, don't expect us to rescue them from their greed / stupidity / recklessness. Especially don't expect to be traded for one of the largest arms dealers in history.
That is my opinion, you can certainly disagree. The US's government certainly did.
Dnipro was hit last night. Because russia only fires on legitimate military targets, they attacked and destroyed a hospital. Two dead and 23 wounded as of this writing.
BBC News - Russian rocket attack on Ukraine hospital kills two
Hopefully VikkiDp will stop in with some more details if and when she has time.
Shot from a video of the hospital hit. Hard to believe this wasn't intentional. Even if they had soldiers there, that still fully evil. It's getting hard to to distinguish the incompetence from the evil.
aircooled said:
Shot from a video of the hospital hit. Hard to believe this wasn't intentional. Even if they had soldiers there, that still fully evil. It's getting hard to to distinguish the incompetence from the evil.
Realistically, is there even the slightest chance that this wasn't deliberate? This is what they've done since day one.
In reply to DarkMonohue :
Optimistically or pessimistically, depending on whatever mood one is in, if they WERE aiming at hospitals, they'd be hitting military installations.
Snark aside, they have well proven that they are not really "accidentally" running afoul of Geneva.
02Pilot
PowerDork
5/26/23 1:15 p.m.
There's an argument among cultural historians specializing in Russia that hostile contact with invasions from the Asian steppe peoples strongly influenced the way the Russians fight. As you may be aware, the modus operandi of nomadic steppe peoples - at least the ones that made it as far west as European Russia - tended to be one of stark brutality, wiping out or enslaving local populations rather than co-opting or occupying them and their territory. Tamerlane the Great, for example, is thought to have been responsible for the deaths of some 17 million people, 5% of the global population in the late 14th Century. As noted in the link above, Stalin was very interested in Tamerlane, and the argument suggests that these cross-cultural contacts had an outsized influence on Russian military culture. In part, this may explain the willingness to use force against civilian targets in ways that are anathema to Western sensibilities.
I am not a cultural historian, nor a Russia specialist, so I'm not qualified to offer much more detail or dissect the argument's sources and methods to establish how strong it is, but I found it an interesting theory at least.
Hi everyone!!! Thank you all for worrying about us
I and many other people around me are very shocked and down.
It really was very hard night and very hard day. The alarm turned on at 1.45 am and an alert came in about the danger of drones and missile attacks - so we had the very noisy "disco party" for almost four hours - many explosions and many hits around and many destruction in different parts of the city.
In the morning there was a continuation in the form of an attack on the hospital. The nearby veterinary clinic was also damaged and many objects around. 2 people died, 31 injured(including 2 kids).
There were only civilians around - i've seen many videos and pictures.
Was the hospital a target? I'm not sure. I suppose the target was another place. Anyway it's absolutely AWFUL!!!
People were hurt, thousands of windows across the city were broken, and the roofs of houses were damaged!!!
I'd like to say - there are many topics i'd like to discuss you and i'd like to tell you about - my view of the situation and my thoughts on what is happening. But i have too many thoughts i even don't know which one i can start with.
In reply to VikkiDp :
We have the time if you do.
In reply to VikkiDp :
I read every post you make on this and the refugee thread. Seldom post on either because all serious posters are more knowledgable than me. Your posts seem more valuable than most, and your work most valuable. Please continue.
VikkiDp said:
I'd like to say - there are many topics i'd like to discuss you and i'd like to tell you about - my view of the situation and my thoughts on what is happening. But i have too many thoughts i even don't know which one i can start with.
You are the only eye witness to what is actually going on there. I know most of the information I can access is far less trustworthy.
02Pilot
PowerDork
5/27/23 3:35 p.m.
Some interesting comments from the venerable Henry Kissinger in this weekend's WSJ, not just about Ukraine but foreign policy in general. As usual, I don't agree with everything he says, but his clarity of presentation and compelling ideas make it well worth reading and considering.
Noddaz said:
Former prisoners escaped from Russian army units
Surprise, surprise.
Who could have ever foreseen this?
Also, TIL that Kissinger is still alive.
aircooled said:
But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled WNBA.... yeah... (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)
So that's a E36 M3ty thing to say, regardless of how you feel about if the US should have traded for her. Why would you ASSUME she's not aware of the person they traded for her being a pile of E36 M3? Your perspective on it reads as if you blame her for much of the E36 M3 that went down around their detainment and release.
Don't share it here, but you (and anyone else who's feeling spicy at my response) should spend a few minutes considering of you'd feel and say the same things if it hadn't been a black queer woman who got popped on BS charges and was made into essentially a hostage.
ralleah said:
aircooled said:
But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled WNBA.... yeah... (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)
So that's a E36 M3ty thing to say, regardless of how you feel about if the US should have traded for her. Why would you ASSUME she's not aware of the person they traded for her being a pile of E36 M3? Your perspective on it reads as if you blame her for much of the E36 M3 that went down around their detainment and release.
Don't share it here, but you (and anyone else who's feeling spicy at my response) should spend a few minutes considering of you'd feel and say the same things if it hadn't been a black queer woman who got popped on BS charges and was made into essentially a hostage.
Yeah, Aircooled showed an uncharacteristically poor choice of words on that one. But nobody made an issue of her gender, race or sexuality until you did. So perhaps you're the one due for some mirror time.
Looks like a large drone attack on Kyiv. Most are reported to be shot down.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:
ralleah said:
aircooled said:
But hey, I am sure he is enjoying being free.... and we... get to watch a more skilled WNBA.... yeah... (sorry for the tangent, but I really hope they briefed her as to exactly who the person they traded her for is)
So that's a E36 M3ty thing to say, regardless of how you feel about if the US should have traded for her. Why would you ASSUME she's not aware of the person they traded for her being a pile of E36 M3? Your perspective on it reads as if you blame her for much of the E36 M3 that went down around their detainment and release.
Don't share it here, but you (and anyone else who's feeling spicy at my response) should spend a few minutes considering of you'd feel and say the same things if it hadn't been a black queer woman who got popped on BS charges and was made into essentially a hostage.
Yeah, Aircooled showed an uncharacteristically poor choice of words on that one. But nobody made an issue of her gender, race or sexuality until you did. So perhaps you're the one due for some mirror time.
I meant what I said, and stand by it. Same thing for you pointing it back at me. He didn't have to mention those things specifically, that's the point.
Lovely now everyone's racist and homophobic again. Jesus people get a damn grip already. No one was worth the piece of E36 M3 we traded back. He should have never ever been let go.