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johndej
johndej SuperDork
11/12/23 7:28 p.m.

You will refrain from politics, religion, or droning on long after the rest of the party has walked away from a conversation. 

OHSCrifle
OHSCrifle GRM+ Memberand UberDork
11/12/23 8:10 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

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AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

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In reply to Appleseed :

Do you actually believe that?  I'm not the one telling everyone HOW to post.  
 

I 100% wanted to discuss the war.  I just had concerns about proxy, economic destruction of our country, and issues with corruption that no one was willing to discuss.  Instead of actually discussing those issues, people came after me for raising what we all know now are valid concerns.  Here's an idea.  Instead of attacking me, go after the issues.  If me sticking up for myself bothers you, I'm sorry for that but I'm not going to stop doing it.  
 

This reply from you is just another example of that.  
 

 

 

So no one is willing to discuss the entire topic of this war now?  Will you be willing in 20 years like the Iraq thread?  Why wait?  

You've cited 300 pages and a map but I've lost the plot. Would you care to reset your position for clarity?

Appleseed
Appleseed MegaDork
11/12/23 8:43 p.m.

In reply to johndej :

Deal.

racerfink
racerfink UberDork
11/13/23 6:43 a.m.

Didn't know we had so many alphabet agency shills on GRM...

Nathan JansenvanDoorn
Nathan JansenvanDoorn Dork
11/13/23 7:49 a.m.

I couldn't love GRM the magazine or the website more, and believe me, I don't like to be the P.C police or anything or the guy who has a problem with everything thing, but I do have a problem with this... I find it a bit offensive that you use terms like “censored" and "censorship" for your little descriptions or whatever in the discussions. I myself do not make cultural references, but I feel sensitivity for people who do, as I am a student living among them, and my Girlfriend is pursuing her masters in the field.

These terms although I'm pretty sure are not even real words, are obviously meant to resemble the words used to describe people who spend a disproportionate amount of time posting on message boards, and it appears that they are used on these boards in a joking sense which, as I view it, makes light of people who spend a lot of time here.

*If you know, you know.

 

wvumtnbkr
wvumtnbkr GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/13/23 10:06 a.m.

^ awesome.  Well played.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
11/13/23 10:31 a.m.

In reply to Nathan JansenvanDoorn :

Well done, sir. Well done.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/13/23 7:31 p.m.
aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/13/23 7:48 p.m.

No surprising, they had the most to gain from it.  Stops flow to Germany, gets them more in the game.  That pipeline was essentially an end around run to avoid paying Ukraine to pump and store the Russian gas also I believe.

A bit curious how they managed to pull it off, if true.   That sort of thing is really more in the capability range of the US or Russia, that pipeline was quite deep where it blew I believe, at least 100's of feet.  200 feet is about the max for scuba, so you are talking a sub or hard shell suit at that point.  ROV?  They have shown themselves to be quit creative when figuring out new and exciting ways to destroy Russian things, but this seems rather advanced, in an area they are not known for.

My suspicious brain cell says since they are the essentially the most justified to do such a thing (they are at war, so pretty much anything goes for them) so they are also the "safest" to but the blame it on (if someone else is covering their butt), since there is effectively zero blow back.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/13/23 7:57 p.m.

There was a bit of rumor that Russia was planning on pulling back their forces from the western Zaporizhzhi district, across from Kherson, where the Ukrainians have been making decent progress pushing the Russian off the eastern bank of the Dnipro.

Not sure if there is any reality to it.  The Ukrainians taking that area would give them some very nice shorter ranges shots into Crimea. It would also serious expose (or destroy) the primary supply line into that area (from Crimea):

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/13/23 8:00 p.m.

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AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/13/23 8:02 p.m.

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Opti
Opti SuperDork
11/13/23 8:43 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:


Discuss.

If I'm going to believe anonymous sources I'm going to lean towards Hersh's (saying the US did it). Two reasons, capability like air-cooled mentioned, and Biden told us he'd do it.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/13/23 10:39 p.m.

Sounds like there was something to the rumor.  Not sure what that something is though:

-------

The now-retracted reports of a Russian regrouping on the east bank of Kherson Oblast may be indicative of actual discussions taking place in the high echelons of Russian military command that may have prematurely entered the information space before being officially released by the Russian military. Russian media outlet RBK reported that the original TASS and RIA Novosti reports stated that the commander of the joint Russian group of forces in Ukraine (unnamed in the article, but in reference to Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov) heard and agreed with arguments from the "Dnepr" group command (also unnamed in the article, but known to be Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky) and ordered the "Dnepr" group to redeploy and free up forces for offensive operations in other unspecified directions.[9] The suggestion that two high-ranking military commanders would have a discussion on reallocating Russian forces away from a certain sector of the front to another is not outlandish or improbable. RBK’s report further suggests that the Russian military command has assessed that the situation in Kherson Oblast is not overtly threatening to Russian forces. Despite near-constant anxiety about the Kherson direction on the part of milbloggers, the Russian military command itself seems to be preoccupied with other sectors of the front, namely the Avdiivka direction, where Russian forces are pursuing renewed offensive operations.[10] Gerasimov and Teplinsky may have weighed the costs of maintaining frontline units in Kherson Oblast with the benefits of redeploying these units to other areas of the front and decided that the current Russian grouping in rear areas of Kherson is sufficient to defend against Ukrainian operations on the east bank. Ukrainian military observer Konstantyn Mashovets remarked on November 12 that the Russian command in the Kherson direction has refused to commit to the front lines additional forces of the 70th Motorized Rifle Division (of the newly formed 18th Combined Arms Army) and 7th Air Assault (VDV) Division beyond the elements of single regiments and battalions, opting instead to maintain the remainder of these formations in near rear areas and secondary echelons of defense.[11] Mashovets noted that the Russian presence in frontline areas of Kherson Oblast is "limited."[12] The suggestion that Russian forces have a stronger rear-area presence in Kherson Oblast largely tracks with purported discussions between Gerasimov and Teplinsky to free up these frontline elements and commit them to other areas of the front.

It is unlikely that an outside source posing as the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) provided information about the reported “regrouping” of Russian forces on the left bank of Kherson Oblast to Russian state media outlets. Several Russian sources suggested that an unspecified actor posing as the Russian MoD from a fake account could have provided the information to Russian state news outlet RIA Novosti.[14] It is very unlikely that an outside actor posing as the Russian MoD could deceive Russian state media outlets as Russian state media is closely connected to Russian government bodies including the Russian MoD.

Ukrainian and Russian sources noted that weather conditions are impacting the battlespace but not halting operations. 

Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukraine will likely conduct an interdiction campaign against Russian supply routes in the upcoming winter.

US Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink stated that the 100th civilian ship departed the Black Sea corridor for civilian vessels on November 13, amid continued Russian efforts to deter usage of the corridor.

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/15/23 3:09 p.m.
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter)
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/15/23 3:12 p.m.

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aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/15/23 4:33 p.m.

They don't, that's kind of the point (which I suspect is your point).  Of they might, if they are being deceptive. 

With Russia it's very hard to tell sometimes the difference between incompetence and deception. They have had some rather serious "leaks" in the past, that were clearly not attempts at deception.  They have been apparently trying to get more of a hold on the rumor mill, and get everyone on the same "marketing" page, but clearly something was a bit strange about this one.

This may have been an idea, that someone leaked, before someone else did the: "but if we did that, they would/could" analysis.

Opti
Opti SuperDork
11/17/23 1:19 p.m.

WSJ -"It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat"

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/it-s-time-to-end-magical-thinking-about-russia-s-defeat/ar-AA1k28ij

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/20/23 7:39 a.m.

The Armed Forces hit the airfield in the Kherson region, which was used by the Russians

Not to make light of this, but did this happen in WW1 instead of Nov 20th 2023? Or are the Russians getting really desperate?  Look at the right side picture, top left corner.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim UltimaDork
11/20/23 7:46 a.m.

In reply to Noddaz :

Probably an AN-2, supposedly Russia has been using them as decoys to draw out AA fire.  Maybe also using them as attack drones, but I don't think that has been confirmed.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
11/20/23 8:01 a.m.
aircooled said:

With Russia it's very hard to tell sometimes the difference between incompetence and deception.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/20/23 11:59 a.m.

In reply to eastsideTim :

Definitely an AN-2.  They are very old planes, but are also VERY capable bush planes.  Similar to a large Beaver (!) or Helio Courior.  There is a privately owned one at an airport near me.  A rather slow plane of course, but low landing speed is rather important when you are trying to get into tight spots.  I would not be surprised if Russia still uses a number of them.  Probably more popular in civilian hands(?).  In that area they might even be crop dusters.

I have seen one close up, and been inside one (rather large inside), but I cannot remember if the wings are metal.  I am pretty sure they are(?) since that makes them far more durable.  Here is an interesting excerpt from the pilots manual:

According to the operating handbook, the An-2 has no stall speed. A note from the pilot's handbook reads: "If the engine quits in instrument conditions or at night, the pilot should pull the control column full aft and keep the wings level. The leading-edge slats will snap out at about 64 km/h (40 mph) and when the airplane slows to a forward speed of about 40 km/h (25 mph), the airplane will sink at about a parachute descent rate until the aircraft hits the ground."[4]

Antonov An-2 - Russia - Air Force | Aviation Photo #1692984 | Airliners.net

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
11/20/23 12:20 p.m.
Opti said:

WSJ -"It’s Time to End Magical Thinking About Russia’s Defeat"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/it-s-time-to-end-magical-thinking-about-russia-s-defeat/ar-AA1k28ij

For those who didn't read it, it's essentially saying Russia is not doing as bad as some might expect, economics wise.  The concept of defeat though I think is an interesting one.  Depends on what you mean by defeat I guess.  Clearly Ukraine could have faced classic defeat, by loosing their entire country, but Russia never has.  If you mean significant looses, in various ways, obviously both have been defeated.

That is to say, realistically, Russia has never been predicted to be defeated (in a classic sense), just stopped, pushed back and encouraged to stop.  Is that a defeat?  In a way yes.  Of course, as noted, they have been defeated in various ways already.

Is Russia currently, and in the future, predicted to be economically stable and doing reasonable well (e.g. not defeated), which is essentially what the article is about?  It sort of seems like it, but it's also hard to tell.  I am no expert, and I am not sure there is a truly accurate way to know what is really going on in Russia economically.  That is, it could be simply propping itself up to look good.  It seems like Russia is now (kind has in the past of course) almost entirely reliant on it's oil/gas sales, which China (and India) are sucking up.  I do wonder about China being such a huge customer though.  I mean, if they did not want to pay as much, what is Russia's option?

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/20/23 7:11 p.m.

In reply to aircooled : Re AN-2

That's a big um, bi-plane.

 

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
11/22/23 9:05 a.m.

And just because everything is not going as well for Ukraine as reported by Ukraine:

As of 14 November 2023, according to the Oryx blog, at least 13 Ukrainian Leopard 2s were destroyed according to photos and videos (3 Leopard 2A6, 2 Leopard 2A4, 5 Leopard 2A4V, 1 Leopard 2R, 2 Bergepanzer-3); While another 16 Ukrainian Leopard 2s of various models were confirmed damaged to various degrees, with seven of them being classified as abandoned by their crews: 4 Leopard 2A4, 7 Leopard 2A6 with 4 of them being abandoned, 3 Stridsvagn 122 all of whom are also abandoned, 2 Leopard 2R.[206] Totally, at least 20 Leopard-2 are losses and 9 more took damage requiring repair. The Oryx's list only includes destroyed or damaged equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available, thus the amount of equipment lost could be higher than Oryx documented.[207]

Stolen from Wiki...

 

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