History in the Making: Russian Invasion

y’all seeing these “Russian water gathering” videos?

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767187891921223986

If you don't want to click on the twit link, it's basically what the clip looks like.  Mud puddles, and scraping condensate off of a ceiling...

Noddaz said:

Ukraine blows up a grounded ship.  (via mil.in.ua)

https://mil.in.ua/uk/news/povitryani-syly-urazyly-rosijskyj-tanker-mehanyk-pogodyn/

Ukrainian aviation struck the tanker "Mechanic Pogodyn" used by the occupiers.

This was announced  by the Commander of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Mykola Oleschuk.

Oleschuk said that thanks to the airstrike, the Russian command post, which was located on the ship that ran aground, was hit.

 

 

Does this count as a destroyed ship, or a destroyed command post?

Hi everyone!!! 

Very interesting news this morning - i guess 

Do you remember that there are some russian citizens fighting on the side of Ukraine?

This morning Legion Russian freedom, Russian corps and Siberian battalion - they started a liberation movement and crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border. Their goal is to liberate Russia from Poo's dictatorship.

This Sunday 17th is the presidential election in russia (read - Putin election)

So, i'm following development of events and reading the news on the official Legion's channel 

Good to see you here Vikki.  And didn't Putin already win the election next week?  

Noddaz said:

Good to see you here Vikki.  And didn't Putin already win the election next week?  

Thanks  

i'm here and i always read all the updates in the tread, but not always have enough time to write something 

didn't Putin already win the election next week?  

Ha, of course!!! that's what i was talking about - the election without choice 

In reply to VikkiDp :

They're still counting the votes, but he's already received 103%!

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to VikkiDp :

They're still counting the votes, but he's already received 103%!

he's already won the election early - the voting hasn't even started yet 

VikkiDp said:

Hi everyone!!! 

Very interesting news this morning - i guess 

Do you remember that there are some russian citizens fighting on the side of Ukraine?

This morning Legion Russian freedom, Russian corps and Siberian battalion - they started a liberation movement and crossed the Ukrainian-Russian border. Their goal is to liberate Russia from Poo's dictatorship.

This Sunday 17th is the presidential election in russia (read - Putin election)

So, i'm following development of events and reading the news on the official Legion's channel 

Early reports have a village (Tetkino) in Kursk under the control of the "Freedom of Russia" legion.  It all sounds overly optimistic at this point, so take it all with a grain of salt, but there reports that the russian army is falling back and russian tanks are retreating to a line of defense further back from the village.

As of yet, the videos I've seen don't prove anything but news is still very much coming in

Edit:

I spoke too soon.  following the thread now

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767440937385390357

Looks like the FOR Legion was accompanied by drones, with local air defense very active.   At least one drone is seen crashing down into a building on video (gunfire heard in the background), and one Legion tank is seeing firing on ru positions.

Russian FSB is reporting the uprising "quelled" after ru defense forces destroyed 100 enemy troops, 6 tanks, cesar self propelled gun, and 20 AFVs  (along with a UA strongpoint)....

aaaaand then the russians bravely ran away?  Because immediately afterward we got this video:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767440937385390357

There are a few more videos out there of the border checkpoint destroyed along with a ru tank.  More locals running east, etc, but I think this is enough to confirm that what's being reported by the legion is actually happening.

Cue the meme:

Meanwhile, in Moscow:

Russia is reporting an IL-76 crash after a birdstrike.  If my link to the gif works, you can clearly see something departing the aircraft.  I seriously doubt such a failure  could be attributed to a bird...

Unless nature is now using birds as improvised kinetic munitions inside of russia.

linkey link for those who might have to click to watch:  https://twitter.com/i/status/1767535768791117831

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) said:...  I seriously doubt such a failure  could be attributed to a bird...

Unless nature is now using birds as improvised kinetic munitions inside of russia.

Yes, Birds... aren't real.

There are a few videos of the Il-76, and the engine is seriously on fire for a while.  It could be a (big) bird strike that causes the engine to throw a few blades and start a fire.  The combination of the severe vibration from loosing blades, heat of the fire (extinguishers not working?) and notorious Russian build and maintenance quality I could potentially see that resulting in the engine departing.   It happened north east of Moscow, so someone taking it out with a missile seems unlikely. 

France seems to be still pushing for more involvement:

France is reportedly prepared to build a coalition of countries that are open to potentially sending Western military personnel to Ukraine.[42] French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné announced on March 9 during a meeting with Baltic and Ukrainian officials that Ukraine could use foreign troops for operations such as demining or similar efforts and that Western personnel in Ukraine would not necessarily fight.[43] Séjourné emphasized that “it is not for Russia to tell us how we [the West] should help Ukraine in the coming months or years,” noting that Russia should not be able to control how the West responds to Russia by setting arbitrary “red lines.” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski similarly stated on March 8 that the “presence of NATO forces in Ukraine is not unthinkable.”[44] Séjourné reiterated on March 11 that France seeks to “send strong signals” to Russia and speak to the Kremlin in the “language of balance of power.”[45]

In reply to aircooled :

Even in the US, we have had situations where engines were leaving the aircraft thanks to inventive maintenance procedures (using a forklift to install an engine, damaging the pylons that attach them to the wing) and counterfeit fasteners.

In reply to aircooled :

It's a tough one for me concerning shotty maintenance vs birdstrike (my thing about kinetic blah blah blah was just me tryin to be funny).  Honestly it all comes down to speculation on my part as I can't see any way to prove definitively either of the scenarios I have in my head: 

I see a lot of bird strikes (even in engines) and seldom do they do anything spectacular.  But in that same breath, I've seen a bird go completely through the case of an engine.

On the maintenance side, there should be a LOT the pilot could monitor (vibe, exhaust gas temp, fire warning, thrust loss indications, etc) that should have indicated a problem worthy of pulling the T-handle (which cuts fuel, cuts hyds, dispenses fire retardant) but then again, I have no idea what russian military aviation is like.  And like Pete said, we've had instances in the US where people hung an engine on a DC-10 after being explicitly told NOT to do exactly that.... and... well, you know...

I guess the only thing we could say for certain is "An IL-76 went down after an engine fire".

In mother Russia, something something, eject.

https://twitter.com/Bricktop_NAFO/status/1767299094488436769?

In reply to Mr_Asa :

Oops! I'll bet he had the gear handle up and the gear retracted when the weight came off the the wheels for a second.

In all fairness, we had a guy do that in an F22 not that long ago.  

(I looked it up, it was 5 years ago)

Mar 12, 2024 - ISW Press

The All-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion conducted a limited cross-border incursion into Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the morning of March 12. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Spokesperson Andriy Yusov stated on March 12 that elements of the RDK, LRS, and the Siberian Battalion were involved in clashes in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts. Russian sources initially denied reports of the incursion but later claimed that Russian forces repelled Russian pro-Ukrainian forces with tank, armored vehicle, and drone support attacking near Odnorobivka, Kharkiv Oblast and Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino, Belgorod Oblast. Footage published on March 12 shows Russian pro-Ukrainian forces operating near Nekhoteevka and Spodaryushino in Belgorod Oblast and in Tetkino, Kursk Oblast.

 There was no incursion, but the Russians repelled it just in case there was an incursion.  Right.

Lots coming out of Bilhorod today for an incursion that didn't exist but was brafely repelled by ru defenders...

Link to thread, lots of videos to watch.  So far all SFW:  https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767793324805525816

Reports of drone strikes on an FSB building, attacks on the command point (photo above), and shelling in the streets with the FoR Legion wanting to push further.

A refinery in russia was attacked by drones.  Luckily russian EW bravely intercepted and caused the drones to crash directly on their target.  Partial operational hault at the refinery as a result.  Source:  LiveUAmap.com

Looks like Ukraine lost a couple helicopters in the south:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767886943851778074

While also suffering civilian casualties as a result of a strike in the Dnipro Oblast (not the city).  Trigger warning for the link, photo clipped below is safe:

Again, trigger warning for the link.  Posting to cite source.  At least one casualty shown with a surviving family member:  https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1767939462821019756

For numbers I'm showing 43 wounded, and 4 dead from the terror strike.

Meanwhile putin is talking about nuclear war if Finland places troops on their border, says negotiations now "don't make sense" because Ukraine is out of bullets, and that russia will replace Japan as "the worlds fourth largest economy"...

Meanwhile these guys are threatening terror attacks on voting stations:

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767890879736373437

And finally, I think we posted an ETA for these a couple days ago.  Here's some more on the subject:

Source article:  https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/ammunition-bought-under-czech-initiative-could-reach-ukraine-in-june/

and in the US, the 300-mil goes through but without ATACMS:

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1767746291637887174

Regarding the Czech munitions:

I'd like to point out that a few days ago, this was shared:

I'm guessing the contrast between the two ETAs is probably due to the fact that these munitions are coming from multiple countries, and both in VS out of the EU.  My beef with the contrast was the overly optimistic and overly pessimistic way the different articles reported it.  Why cant we just say "some will start... while others may take as long as..."????

that's all.  End rant.

from https://mil.in.ua/uk/

Russian resistance destroyed Russian armored vehicles in the Belgorod region

Belgorod War with Russia Losses of Russia Russia World

Servicemen of the "Siberia" battalion destroyed Russian armored vehicles in the Belgorod region.

The corresponding video was published on the official Telegram channel of the unit.

For example, one of the videos shows a destroyed Russian infantry fighting vehicle BMP-1, which was burned by the soldiers of the volunteer battalion during the fighting in the village of Gorkovsky.

*snip*

The fighters of "Legion — Freedom of Russia" noted that they are "going to the elections." In a video message, they explained their actions as a desire to liberate the Russian Federation from Putin's dictatorship. They published a video of crossing the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Hi everyone!!!

this morning(when i typing it it's about 12 am) FOR legion, Russian volunteers corps and Siberian battalion made a joint announcement

-translation- 

9.14 am

we once again appeal to the residents of the Kursk and Belhorod regions!

Your government has taken no action to protect you and evacuate you and shelling of peaceful cities and villages in Ukraine continues as before!

We are forced to return fire on military facilities in the border regions.

Evacuate immediately!

-translation- 

10.34 am

Attention!

all residents of the Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk regions who do not have time or are unable to evacuate, get to shelter immediately!

*all screen shots are from official channels

What's interesting is that the residents of these regions (well, just like all of russia) really don't understand the cause-and-effect link between the attack on Ukraine and what they're getting in return.

Will the people of russia go against putin? nope, i don't think so.

* these are my thoughts only.

VikkiDp said:

What's interesting is that the residents of these regions (well, just like all of russia) really don't understand the cause-and-effect link between the attack on Ukraine and what they're getting in return.

Will the people of russia go against putin? nope, i don't think so.

* these are my thoughts only.

I always have hope, but reality unfortunately is often much different.

For us westerners, I'm learning more and more that we REALLY have no idea what it's like for a russian outside of the major cities.  I've been watching this guy's videos when he makes them (and do recommend them to others)

 

This one is related to the discussion but I think he too is being a bit optimistic with his narrative.  Still though, it's nice to see the perspective from an actual russian even if his political bias is probably strongly aligned against the current government.

Speaking of politicians, I just found this phone call between Macron and putin just days before the invasion

https://twitter.com/spooked75/status/1767787253831495773

Personally I really enjoyed watching the conversation between the two leaders.  As much as I would like to think that I'd be the world's best president, watching the "tit-for-tat" and the directness with which Macron hits while putin wiggles and dodges answers really makes me realize how un-cut out for politics I'd actually be.

still though, an interesting conversation.