History in the Making: Russian Invasion

In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :

Of course it does, but I think the actual explanation is simpler. There isn't the political capital in the US for the US to do what would be required for Ukraine to go back to pre invasion borders (also I'm not advocating for this scenario, personally I think its a terrible option), so instead Ukraine received "support" and even with support the best they could muster was a stalemate, (this was advantageous for the US because an expensive stalemate weakens Russia, the secdef said it was their aim) and now American support for any type of aid for Ukraine has dwindled to the point that it puts Ukraines ability to even hold a stalemate at risk. Its unlikely that Ukraine will somehow gain leverage at this point, and they already have the weaker position. Without some type of massive catalyst to materially change the scenario, we are likely looking at an "unfair" deal.

Do I think the US took advantage of certain developing scenarios to further its aims over the last few years? Absolutely, as all countries do in international politics, but I don't believe it was the aim from the beginning or that it intentionally hamstrung Ukraine for those aims.

Sounds like all Putin has to do is nothing but keep attacking Ukraine and trump will loose patience, walk away, and end all support for Ukraine and then Putin can just invade and conquer all of Ukraine.

MSN.com: Running out of patience, Trump could abandon peace negotiations in Russia's war on Ukraine

But he (trump) affirmed Rubio’s comments and said that if “for some reason” one of the countries makes it very difficult, “we’re just going to say 'You’re foolish, you’re fools, you’re horrible people, and we’re going to just take a pass.'”

Former U.S. Ambassador to Poland Daniel Fried said it was not clear from Rubio’s remarks what moving on from peace talks would entail.

“What does walk away mean? Walk away from Ukraine? Pull our support? Leave Ukraine to the mercy of the Russians?” said Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council. “Or does it mean walk away from the talks and then decide to put more pressure on Putin and more military support for Ukraine? His language could be interpreted either way.”

I'm pretty sure we all know which direction trump is heading... I'd bet a $ million.

In reply to prowlerjc :

Hey, I didn't write the news article. They are all legitimate questions that deserve answers.

As long as we keep it on the topic at hand and the information that develops and do our best not to let emotions enter into the discussion.

I am not sure how asking that question is remotely useful, or has anything to do with the topic at hand BTW.  Seems a bit "trollish" to me.

As noted, if the US does give up on the negotiations, which seems highly likely at this point.  I mean, you can only bash you head against a wall for so long.   The continuation of support, specifically the providing of intelligence is likely the biggest unknown, and perhaps a bit of a game changer (I suspect mostly for missile / drone detection and defense).  There was another hinting of actual punitive measures being taken against Russia.  We shall see.

Russia and Ukraine 'very close to a deal', says Trump -BBC

Witkoff met with Putin yesterday, and Trump spoke with Zelensky face-to-face for about 15 minutes before the pope's funeral. Putin signaled willingness to meet Zelensky for talks.

Based on what the Russians have been saying I doubt an peace deal is anywhere close at all at this point. But if they can at least start talking (and get a cease fire going), that is a huge step.  Russia is very clearly the party preventing a cease fire at this point.

They may be talking about this:

Ukrainian and European representatives reportedly presented the United States with a proposal to end the war in Ukraine during multilateral talks in London on April 23. The Telegraph reported on April 25 that the Ukrainian-European proposal contained five points about territory, security guarantees, negotiations, refusing Russian sovereignty over occupied Crimea, and the Ukrainian military and defense industrial base...

US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 25, reportedly to secure a major Russian concession in a future peace deal. Witkoff met with Putin, CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) and Presidential Special Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries Kirill Dmitriev, and Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov.[10] Ushakov stated that the meeting lasted three hours, included discussions about possibly resuming direct Ukrainian-Russian negotiations, and claimed that the meeting brought US and Russian positions about Ukraine and other unspecified issues "closer together."[11] US officials have not reported on the details of Witkoff's meeting with Putin as of the time of this publication.

Bloomberg reported on April 24, citing people familiar with the matter, that Witkoff planned to present a demand that Russia accept Ukraine's right to develop an adequately equipped army and defense industry as part of a peace agreement with Russia.[12] This reported US demand is contrary to the Kremlin's demand for Ukrainian demilitarization... 

....Russia's acceptance of Ukraine's right to a developed military and defense industrial base would therefore be a significant Russian concession should the United States succeed in gaining Putin's agreement.

Russian officials continue to intensify narratives used to justify Russia's invasion of Ukraine in order to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against European states and control European defense policy in the Kremlin's reflexive control campaign.

It's somehow comforting to see Trump and Zelensky sitting together talking minus the traveling circus. The location helps also.

I have to agree.  Not having outside voices influencing could be very helpful.

Well... a bit of a change MIGHT have resulted.  This is from a post that I believe came after this meeting:

...there was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days.  It makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to stop the war, he's just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through "Banking" or "Secondary Sanctions?"  Too many people are dying!!

Not sure what "tapping" means (clearly a miss type).  Any ideas?

Either way, if he keeps this attitude (!?) we might actually see Russia face some punitive actions... of course... there are still those other voices around...

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

Yeah, I am going to go with a "not likely" on that one.  (Also, it seems like you are going a bit out of your way to make a rather person insult on him)

Perhaps "dragging".  Either way, seems to something along the lines of "stringing me along"?  (Maybe that is it?) Or a phrase similar to that.  Certainly don't disagree that is what he is doing (seeing what he can get away with).

aircooled said:

In reply to VolvoHeretic :

(Also, it seems like you are going a bit out of your way to make a rather person insult on him)

On whom? Larry Craig or Putin? I think that is exactly what Trump was meaning.

That's the first thing that popped into my head when you asked that question? 

And, just to change the subject, what are the arm shipments balance in Ukraine these days?

Yeah, I don't really know numbers.  I think the US is still supplying some stuff as part of the last batch of support (last admin).  Europe in general, is ramping up, but I am not sure how that compared to what the US has been giving.

The below is CUMULATIVE amount, so current rate will be different, but you can see how much they will have to make up.  As mentioned previously, the supply (or selling) of things like Patriots (very useful) and HIMAARS rockets (still useful, but much less so then previously) and pretty big / important:

Russia is acknowledging North Koreans fighting in Russia, with zero surprise by anyone!

Gerasimov made the first official Russian acknowledgment of North Korean troop participation in Russian operations in Kursk Oblast by thanking North Korean service members for their assistance in Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the region

Some more info on the changes that may have resulting from the meeting:

US President Donald Trump stated that the United States is no longer pursuing a concrete deadline for achieving a resolution to the war in Ukraine — a departure from the administration’s previously stated goal of ending the war within its first 100 days.[14] Trump told reporters on April 25 that the United States has "no deadline" to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine.[15] Trump also stated on April 26 that there was "no reason" for Russia’s strikes on civilian areas and reiterated a previously stated concern that "[Russian President Vladimir Putin] is just tapping me along" by disingenuously ceasefire and peace negotiations.[16] Trump stated that Putin's actions make Trump think that "maybe [Putin] doesn't want to stop the war" and "has to be dealt with differently." Russian officials have repeatedly attempted to leverage heightened US interest in negotiating a swift resolution to the war in Ukraine to make demands tantamount to Ukrainian surrender and incompatible with Trump’s stated goal of achieving a stable and enduring peace in Ukraine.[17] Russian forces have also conducted a string of strikes against civilian areas in recent weeks, including a devastating strike on Kyiv City on the night of April 23 to 24.[18] Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky met in Vatican City on April 26 to discuss the ongoing peace talks.[19] Zelensky reported on April 26 that he and Trump discussed civilian safety, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a lasting peace that prevents a resumption of hostilities.[20] White House Communications Director Steven Cheung stated that Trump and Zelensky had a "very productive discussion."[21]

In reply to aircooled :

Thank you

This piece from George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures pretty much encapsulates the current state of affairs. Like most Friedman pieces, it's direct and succinct, and cuts straight to the core of the issue.

Some weird stuff.  The Russians have increasingly been using motorcycles, ATV's and light delivery vehicles for assaults.  They can move fast (mostly), but are highly vulnerable to any attack.  The motorcycles are harder to hit with drone though, so that seems to be the motivation.  It is pretty sad that the mighty Russian army is essentially mechanized by the outdoor department of Walmart....

Russia is likely preparing to systematically integrate motorcycle usage into offensive operations in Ukraine for Summer and Fall 2025, likely to offset adept Ukrainian drone capabilities.

The minerals agreement appears to be close... again (?!)

The US is pressuring Greece to transfer it's Patriot systems to Ukraine (so that says something, I guess).

Putin wants another ceasefire for the 80th anniversary Victory Day (you know where the Russians single handedly defeated the Nazi's with NO HELP AT ALL from western countries!!), May 8th to May 11th.  Here is an obviously fabricated (!) picture of a US Sherman tank in Russian service:

In reply to 02Pilot :

Thank you for bringing these articles to the discussion here. I don't  move in the kind of scholarly circles where I would ever find this information. It is always enlightening

02Pilot said:

This piece from George Friedman at Geopolitical Futures pretty much encapsulates the current state of affairs. Like most Friedman pieces, it's direct and succinct, and cuts straight to the core of the issue.

Thanks for sharing that.  As you stated, it was refreshing in it's honest assessment of the realities of the situation.

Other tiny geopolitical incidents that may not seem related to the Ukraine but I do think they are. There is a rapidly developing power vacuum in the world and bad actors are noticing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/articles/creqp4lxnl4o.amp

https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistan-defence-minister-says-military-incursion-by-india-is-imminent-2025-04-28/

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) ... There is a rapidly developing power vacuum in the world and bad actors are noticing.   ...

The power vacuum started about four years ago and bad actors noticed. Some of the press may finally be taking notice for some reason. 

Come on guys.  Let's focus on the topic not the politics.

Stampie said:

Come on guys.  Let's focus on the topic not the politics.

How can you discuss war without politics? 

 When Trump went through his bevy of bankruptcies and personal debt in the early 90s..........I'll let you guess where the money came from to prop him back up. 

z31maniac said:

How can you discuss war without politics? 

There's discussing politics, and there's getting personal about individual players. We've made it 448 pages without this getting locked, it'd be good to keep it that way. I think it's fine to discuss the actions of the Trump administration, but speculating about what motivates them is what gets us into cement mixer territory.

Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:

z31maniac said:

How can you discuss war without politics? 

There's discussing politics, and there's getting personal about individual players. We've made it 448 pages without this getting locked, it'd be good to keep it that way. I think it's fine to discuss the actions of the Trump administration, but speculating about what motivates them is what gets us into cement mixer territory.

I agree, but as I slyly mentioned, where Trump got his money in the early 90s perfectly encapsulates his seeming deference to Russia. I don't want this to be locked either, but I think background information on motives is important. 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/12/21/how-russian-money-helped-save-trumps-business/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/30/enduring-mystery-trump-relationship-russia/