In reply to 02Pilot :
I would tend to agree that your and Tuna's disagreement is more on what is defined as "rational" rather than the motivations of leaders.
In reply to 02Pilot :
I would tend to agree that your and Tuna's disagreement is more on what is defined as "rational" rather than the motivations of leaders.
02Pilot said:In reply to stroker :
I have significant doubts regarding the operational capabilities (training, intel, planning, etc.) of both Pakistan and India. The most advanced equipment in the world requires a very high standard of personnel to operate it effectively; both sides here have serious deficiencies in their organizations, from what I understand (this is not my area of expertise, so take that for what it's worth). It's easier to buy new stuff and accept seller's promises at face value (I think the Indians may have a few choice words for the French right about now) than it is to overcome decades of entrenched problems and inefficiencies in your own military.
Yeah, that's what I was trying to get at, but I like your explanation better than mine. :)
As a bit of a background on the India Pakistan thing. You might think this is a conflict between nations over some land, which it is, but at it's roots, it's really a war of religions. India is mostly Hindi and Pakistan Muslim. Complicating it a bit is the fact that there are numerous religious extremist groups (what the US might call terrorist groups) in Pakistan, which both will deny, but are certainly tied to the government. Information coming out of that conflict, as 02 has noted, is going to be heavily convoluted by lots of deceptive propaganda from both sides.
It does appear as if Ukraine is taking some advantage of Russia moving a lot of air defense around Moscow. Things are blowing up.
No big updates from the parade that I see, but looks like things are going fine (if you don't know who this is, be thankful):
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently published a article that speaks to what the Russians think are the causes / sources of the war:
Belousov claimed that Russia's victory in Ukraine is "inevitable." Belousov said that domestic unity is a necessity for Russia's victory in Ukraine just as the Soviet Union's "moral and spiritual unity" was a critical factor for its victory in the Second World War...
...Belousov reiterated the Kremlin's oft-repeated fallacious narrative that Russia had no choice but to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 because the situation was "life or death." Belousov claimed that Ukraine is a conduit for the collective West's "crusade" against Russia, which Belousov claimed is a manifestation of "eternal Russophobia" and intended to eradicate Russian statehood. Belousov quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin's speech from February 24, 2022, announcing the full-scale invasion.[4] Belousov amplified Putin's accusations that the United States and its Western allies had a policy of "containment" against Russia and created a situation in which Russia had to launch the full-scale invasion of Ukraine to defend Russia's interests.[5] The Kremlin is attempting to link Putin's anti-Western claims to the mythos of the Second World War in order to heighten the existential threat against Russia that the Kremlin claims Russia is currently facing. It is also reconstructing the Soviet-era narrative that the West is conspiring to destroy Russia (in place of the Soviet Union) and that the conflict will be unending.
OK, looks like we may have the first appearance of an actual "stick" in these negotiations (not that those are really going on anymore). I would expect at least some of the sanctions would be a crack down on the Russian "shadow fleet" that is going around selling Russian oil. This of course could have a huge effect on them, if they can get it done before the Russians build a pipeline to China!
US, Europeans finalizing 30-day Ukraine-Russia ceasefire proposal, says diplomatic source
PARIS, May 9 (Reuters) - The United States and its European allies are finalising a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine that if refused would see them jointly impose new sanctions on Russia, a French diplomatic source said on Friday.
U.S. President Donald Trump called on Thursday for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that Washington and its partners would impose further sanctions if the ceasefire was not respected.
Ukraine has expressed readiness to accept the U.S. proposal. Russia has unilaterally declared a three-day ceasefire running from May 8-10 to coincide with the 80th anniversary of the end of World War Two.
"We're not completely with a finalised project, but we hope that we're at a moment of convergence," said the diplomatic source, speaking on condition of anonymity.
"What could happen in the coming hours and days, there could be an announcement of a ceasefire either of 30 days or compartmentalized, which is still being discussed."
France, Britain and Germany in recent weeks have sought closer coordination with Washington. Two weeks ago they pushed back against some U.S. proposals on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine, making counterproposals on issues from territory to sanctions, according to the full texts of the proposals seen by Reuters.
"We are reaching a point where we will not wait for a formal response from Moscow to a joint proposal to declare this ceasefire," said the source.
The source said there were still discussions on whether to announce a unilateral ceasefire or to give a short response time to Russia, although if it refused then new American and EU sanctions would be imposed on Moscow.
The two sides are coordinating on the sanctions packages.....
I think things might be settling down with India / Pakistan they apparently have both agreed to a ceasefire: Pakistan struck back, and India replied (both to military sites I think).
This is a map were the general strikes occurred (the circle is nuclear facility!):
.... and ... I think the ceasefire is off... (yes, it was very short apparently)
Interesting. As soon as a "stick" appears....
Yesterday:
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected another US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal on May 10 amid continued Russian demands that any future ceasefire include conditions that support Russia's long-term goal of gaining control of all of Ukraine and would allow Russia to resume offensive operations from a more advantageous position at a time of its choosing.
Today:
Putin proposes direct peace talks with Ukraine after three years of war
MOSCOW, May 11 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine aimed at ending the war, an initiative welcomed by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy who said Kyiv was willing to talk but Moscow must agree to a ceasefire.
- Putin proposes direct talks with Ukraine
- Putin proposes talks on May 15 in Istanbul
- Putin says talks to seek durable peace
- Zelenskiy: Putin must agree to a ceasefire
Russia did a bit of clarification that the talks will first deal with causes (which likely include NATO, too many NAZI's, non-pro-Russian government in Kyiv etc).
LOOKS like things are moving... maybe... but.............. Russia....
In reply to aircooled :
Putin is squirming, and the wild swings in the Russian position are due to the fact that his options are narrowing. He's trying to avoid a united front, and trying to avoid meaningful sanctions, so we're getting a bunch of ideas thrown out to see if anything sticks. I think his first target here is the US, as Trump seems the most inclined to jump at anything the sounds like it might produce talks or a ceasefire. I don't think it's going to work, and Russia is probably going to have to make a hard choice between signing on to the 30-day ceasefire or enduring a bunch of new sanctions, at least for a while.
Well, as predicted, Russian isn't exactly reducing any of it's demands. A cease fire to give Ukraine a chance to surrender?!:
Russian President Vladimir Putin called for Russia and Ukraine to resume bilateral negotiations based on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that include Russian demands amounting to full Ukrainian surrender. Any agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document.
Putin also continues to demand that any negotiations address Russia's perceived "root causes" of the war in Ukraine.
Putin is attempting to manipulate ongoing discussions about a ceasefire and future peace in Ukraine, likely in an effort to undermine Ukrainian-US-European unity around a comprehensive 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine
The European ceasefire demand required a response by today. I am not sure if this is related to it, but it will hurt:
EU to ban 25 Russian tankers from sailing in Baltic and North Seas
The European Union is preparing a new blow to Russia's shadow fleet. Specifically, the EU plans to ban 25 Russian oil tankers from sailing in the Baltic and North Seas, EUobserver reports.
According to the outlet, around 25 oil tankers, which will soon be included in the list of the shadow fleet, are currently navigating the Baltic and North Seas, posing risks of oil spills or cable-cutting incidents.
Under a proposal by the European Commission seen by EUobserver, these vessels are among 149 vessels to be added to the EU's blacklist, which helps Russia avoid the Western oil embargo.
Being blacklisted would prohibit them from entering EU ports or receiving services from EU-based maritime firms, such as insurance, repairs, or refueling.
Some silliness going on:
- EU proposes ceasefire.
- Putin has a great idea: Let's have a ceasefire! We can talk about it in Turkey where Ukraine will essentially give them everything they want.
- Zelenskyy (being a bit trollish' I suspect) tells Putin he will meet him in Turkey and talk directly to him(!)
- Putin is planning on sending 3rd tier diplomats for talks in Turkey.... most everyone has lost interest at this point.
EU is still planning on cranking up sanctions as Putin stalls for time.
Russia is planning on deploying on what essentially is there ceremonial guard (e.g. not terribly combat effective) to the front in an apparent attempt at intimidation. Seems like a bit of desperation.
As long as Zelensky was pushing back against Trump's position, Putin didn't really have to do anything. Now that Zelensky has figured out how to play the game, Putin is susceptible to being pressured simply by Zelensky agreeing to anything that Trump seems to want, regardless of outcome. Zelensky had nothing to lose by announcing he would go in person to Turkey; I would suspect he had no expectation that Putin would show up, or that anything would come from the meeting, but by giving Trump the answer he wanted quickly, Zelensky automatically shifts the pressure to Putin, who now appears to be the obstruction; this is not simply Ukrainian pressure, but (by proxy) US and EU pressure as well. In effect, Zelensky may appear to be acquiescing to Trump's whims, but what he's really doing is manipulating both Putin and Trump, the former being isolated by his failure to come to the table, and the latter now likely to increasingly support anti-Russia actions because of the perception that Putin is refusing to do what he wants.
Regarding the talks in Turkey. Looks like Zelensky showed up, saw that Putin was not there, then left. Sounds like the talks were pretty brief. Russia demands Ukraine remove troops from "their" territories (you know, all those parts of the Oblasts they never managed to take) and says if they don't agree, they will claim another Oblast (Dnipro) next time!
So... that went about as well as expected....
Another F-16 is down. It looks like it was chasing down cruise missiles at 3:30 in the morning (so likely it was not enemy fire).
Still rumors of a big Russian summer offensive. With what, I have no idea. Just a wave of meat bag bullet catchers in Malibu Barbie cars I suspect.
It looks like Romania now has a bit more of a anti-russian president.
Romania’s pro-EU candidate unexpectedly beats hard-right rival to win presidential election
Romania’s pro-European Union, centrist presidential candidate Nicușor Dan won the country’s election Sunday, defeating his ultranationalist rival in a shocking upset.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/05/18/europe/romania-presidential-election-result-intl-latam
Russia is clearly flexing (seems like their internal drone production might be hitting the front) before the talk between Putin and Trump. I don't expect the Russian demands have changed any. Their goal with the US, as 02 has noted, it to remove US involvement as much as possible.
There is more talk of a deadline for a ceasefire. Not sure what happened to that last one, maybe they will actually clamp down on sanctions, maybe?....
-----
Russian forces conducted the largest single drone strike of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 17 to 18 – in disregard of US President Donald Trump's calls for Russia to stop long-range strikes against Ukraine, particularly against Kyiv Oblast.[1]
The Kremlin continues efforts to project Russia's military strength ahead of US President Donald Trump’s scheduled phone call with Putin on May 19.
Russia has some sort of new drone that took us a bit by surprise today (or at least it was deployed much further back than what we were expecting). The reports say that the drone operates as a mothership for a compliment of fiber-optic FPV drones. The mothership flies about 5-7km high (too high for AD to engage) and acts as a relay/repeater station to send out attacks from there. The quantity of fiber-optic FPV drones in the compliment is yet unknown, and range is reported to be at least 40km.
It was used against vehicles on the highway between Dobropillia and Kramatorsk. 9-vehicles were hit (including civilian vehicles) before comms reached the checkpoints to shut the highway down to civilian traffic. If you click the link, the video of the burning vehicle was shared through all the logistics groups earlier this morning.
That particular road was a pretty important life line for those two cities as it connected them to Dnipro. Alternative routes exist at Poltava and Kharkiv, but that's a multiple-hour detour at best.
More to follow, I'm sure.
In reply to aircooled :
It's worth talking about types of involvement or influence in a more granular way. Russia's primary stated concern has been to keep Ukraine from slipping out of its orbit, but there is a hierarchy of things they want. Depending on how hard the US and EU are willing to push, and how much Ukraine is willing to be flexible, the most attainable and sustainable compromise would see Ukraine ruled out of NATO and the EU (giving Putin major policy wins), but ending the negotiations with significant bilateral trade deals, including those involving military equipment and foreign direct investment, in place (providing Zelensky with what he will need to defend the country and rebuild the economy, as well as entrenching Western economic interests in keeping Ukraine free). Ukraine would also need significant foreign aid, at the very least loan guarantees, in the short term, but it needs to stand on its own two feet quickly; the critical deadline for getting the economy stable would probably be about 4-5 years, when aid would likely be tailing off. The trade-off for this will be territory and constitutional neutrality.
My assessment is that Russia would get enough from this sort of deal that Putin would seriously consider taking it. It would guarantee Ukraine the ability to rebuild the country and prepare to defend it again if necessary, tying it to the West economically but not politically or militarily. The latter conditions would be harder for Putin to swallow, but I think he would consider the other gains worth allowing Ukraine to develop clear ties to the West economically, albeit not as part of any larger organization. In effect, Ukraine would become a buffer state between NATO and Russia; while Putin would prefer one under his control (as Belarus is), one that is obligated to remain neutral by treaty is better than nothing. If Ukraine violated the treaty by attempting to align with NATO or the EU, Russia would gain a casus belli.
It should also be said that a successfully concluded peace treaty would in no way stop Russia's efforts to subvert Ukraine; in fact, they might intensify in scope (but likely not in scale). But that is something that Ukraine will simply have to accept - surely, they too will make efforts to undermine Putin's position. Both sides will have to avoid more direct operations if they want any treaty to hold, but they will not stop looking for creative ways to make each other's lives difficult. It's just part of the game.
In reply to 02Pilot :
Do you see China having a significant behind the scenes role and influence in Russia/Putin's decision?
I expect that continuing the war serves them better than concluding it.
In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :
China would like nothing better than having the war continue. It's pushed Russia into their pocket, distracted their main rivals, and cost them nothing. But they cannot afford to be seen as impeding the peace process, especially given how their stock in the US (and to a lesser extent in the EU) has plummeted in recent months. I expect the Chinese ambassador in Moscow is relaying uncomfortable messages about how Russia should not allow itself to be bullied or humiliated by the imperialists, but Putin - while weakened - is smart enough to know exactly what his Chinese ally is worth, especially when the chips are down. China will sell out Russia hard if it means maintaining access to Western markets. Putin is juggling chainsaws at this point, and everyone knows it.
Both Putin and Xi will be watching with interest the anti-Hamas protests in Gaza. The level of desperation is higher than most in the West would require, but having reached it, the Palestinians in Gaza are standing up against their local totalitarians, regardless of the risk. That is the greatest fear of any autocrat; that it's happening now, and in such a highly visible place, will be a concern in Moscow and Beijing.
I really enjoyed Jonah Goldberg's interview with Dr Leon Aron of the American Enterprise Institute regarding Putin, Russia, and to a lesser amount, the current American leadership. Jonah's an old-school conservative, but he is fairly critical of Trump, so if that triggers you, forget I posted this.
https://thedispatch.com/podcast/remnant/red-hot-soviet-nationalism/
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
Care to give an executive summary for those of us not wanting to stream the podcast or is it stuff that shouldn't be said here?
In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :
Well both the participants are conservative, so their criticism of the POTUS is relatively tame. But both know their history and Aron is a native Russian. While there's nothing earth-shaking, the second two-thirds is just interesting in its perspectives on history and the current political reality.
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
I listened to it. It is a good overview of what has been discussed here. Some of the general conclusions: Russia does not want to stop fighting, Putin is and should be afraid of his veterans. They talked about the whole "de-nazifying" thing, and potential future political possibilities for Russia. One of the interesting points / guesses made was that Russia seems like it setting up to invade one or more of the Baltic states. Of course they are NATO, but it would take many weeks for NATO to mobilize, and by the then Russia would claim the country as Russian territory (as in Ukraine) and say any attack is an attack on Russia.. everyone dies in nuclear hell fire... etc....
I was a little confused by the link since I subscribe to The Dispatch podcast, but it was not on it. I guess it's a sub-program on that network. BTW The Dispatch podcast has some rather good (mostly political, but some international) topics, discussed at some length, but reasonable people. Very much unlike most of what you will find on cable etc. Also of note, there is another (VERY political) podcast: Left, Right, and Center, that also covers US political topics, very reasonably (which is VERY hard to find normally).
Some developments:
- Trump admits in private that Putin is not ready to end war. To use a quote from Die Hard: "Welcome to the party pal!". I think it has been clear that Trump really just wants the war to end and is less concerned how exactly. At least now he may realize that that is not really possible (considering Ukraine is completely unwilling to end the war how Russia wants to).
- Major prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine. Expected up to 1000, curently 390.
- Russia strengthening positions near Finland. Hey, the Baltic States are one thing, but I would think Russia would learn from history and: "Don't F around with Finland!"
- Ukraine launched some rather large drone attacks for that last 3 days (Russia reporting up to 400 shot down!), including on an oil refinery. I don't know where the "truce" thing stands, but hitting Russian refineries is certainly a sore spot for them (and hard to defend).
- Reports are more that 750 drones in the last 3 days. Lots of disruptions in Russia. This seems to be a build up from the cease fire talks time, and a bit of revenge for not coming to one:
Russia is dreaming big again:
Russian President Vladimir Putin likely orchestrated a meeting with Kursk Oblast officials on May 20 to set conditions to justify the renewal of Russian plans to seize Sumy City and illegally annex Sumy Oblast.
Russian forces are highly unlikely to be able to seize Sumy City in the near- to medium-term given Russia's demonstrated inability to rapidly seize even much smaller settlements in Ukraine in the past three years.
In reply to aircooled :
Yeah, the Remnant is typically Jonah Goldberg (Not to be confused with Jeffrey Goldberg) musing or bringing on guests. He can be rambling, but is very smart, educated and thoughtful about current events. He's really helped me understand how illiberal populism can be in its various forms.
I haven't tried Left, Right and Center. Thanks for the tip
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