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Kreb (Forum Supporter)
Kreb (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
5/23/25 1:18 p.m.

Given Poland and Finland's proximity to the Baltic States, I wonder if they'd set up some sort of intra-NATO fast response agreement with Estonia et al'?

Indy - Guy
Indy - Guy MegaDork
5/27/25 10:23 a.m.

Any comments on the increased bombardment of Ukraine by Russia and the ratcheting up of rhetoric between US and Russia leadership?

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
5/27/25 10:53 a.m.

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Putin saw an opening and took it. He has been trying to encourage divisions in the US/EU/Ukraine relationships, first trying to paint Ukraine into a corner, with limited success once Zelensky figured out how to avoid pissing in Trump's Cheerios. Now he's trying to isolate the US by amplifying the notion - already held by some - that Trump is a raging lunatic and the he (Putin) is the reasonable one; this is mostly for domestic and non-aligned nations' consumption. By keeping the various players arrayed against Russia off-balance, he is buying time to try to push Ukraine to the brink by whatever means available. Those means are, however, increasingly limited, and his window of success is closing (if not already shut), so he's extending the conflict in hopes of exhaustion taking one or more of the opposing team out of the equation. 

The bombardment of cities isn't going to win him the war, but he also doesn't have a lot of choices, and doing something is better than doing nothing and letting Ukraine take a breather. It also means that the extensive demand for and costs of air defense continue to accrue, which weighs heavily on Ukraine's supporters, who have of necessity become increasingly cost-conscious.

Russia is in a race against time here to some extent, not so much in terms of survival, but the longer this goes on, the more beholden it becomes to its supporters (notably China, which is supplying quite a bit of the technology needed to keep the drone war going, as well as explosive fillers for artillery shells) and the more limited its options get.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/27/25 11:56 a.m.

As many have likely seen, Russia made their largest drone and missile strikes yet.  This is almost certainly, much like the Ukrainian attack a few days ago, the result of stockpiling during the "semi-ceasefire" period for the last few weeks.  The Russians have also apparently modified their Iskander ballistic missiles to allow in-flight course changing.  This is making them more difficult to shoot down with Patriots, and likely making them rather inaccurate, which may not be much of an issue since Russia seems to be targeting cities in general.  They are also shifting away from cruise missiles to drones.  There are also certainly cracks, in Russia, going on...

 

Russian forces conducted one of their largest drone and missile strikes of the war against Ukraine on the night of May 25 to 26 after three nights of record strikes. The May 25-26 strike is now the second largest combined strike of the war, after Russian forces conducted the largest combined strike on the night of May 24 to 25.

Ukrainian intelligence also assessed that Russia is facing a number of critical constraints in its economy and on the battlefield — in line with ISW's ongoing assessments. Ivashchenko stated that Russia's sovereign wealth fund has fallen from its pre-war level of about $150 billion to about $38 billion and that Russia's gold and foreign currency reserves are also decreasing.[17] Ivashchenko noted that Russia is suffering from serious labor shortages, which are causing problems in the Russian economy, and that Russian authorities are trying to avoid paying the financial incentives that Russia is offering new military recruits. Ivashchenko stated that roughly 80 percent of the equipment that Russian forces are using is refurbished from Russia's Soviet-era stockpiles and that only about 20 percent of the equipment is modern.

The Kremlin is attempting to leverage large strike packages and increasingly aggressive rhetorical efforts to distract from the Russian military's poor performance during this current stage of the war.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/27/25 11:58 a.m.

In the interests of peace, Russia has suggested a buffer zone in Ukraine to avoid future war....  not a joke.... wait for it... here it is....

 

uhm...... yeah.....

 

 Russian forces would need roughly a century to seize Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone" at their current rate of advance at the cost of nearly 50 million casualties at current loss rates. ...ISW assessed on February 21 that Russia would need 83 years to capture the remaining 80 percent of Ukraine at their then rate of advance....

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/27/25 12:09 p.m.

This seems to be a good summary of the current situation by ISW:

 

The Kremlin is also using its bilateral engagements with Ukraine and the United States to maintain the appearance of being interested in peace and delay Western discussion of additional aid to Ukraine. Ukraine and Russia concluded the 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner of war (POWs) exchange on May 25, each exchanging 303 servicemembers.[23] Russian Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Fomin stated that Russia expects the POW exchange to establish "a favorable atmosphere for discussing a settlement" to Russia's war in Ukraine.[24] Russian officials are framing Russia's participation in the POW exchange and bilateral negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul as indicators that Russia is interested in peace.[25] The Kremlin is clearly attempting to portray Russia as amenable to negotiations despite Russian officials' consistent public statements about Russia's unwillingness to engage in ceasefire discussions or compromise on any agreement short of Ukraine's capitulation.

Russia's only real hope of winning this war is to convince the West to abandon Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his theory of victory, which assumes that the Russian military will be able to sustain significant personnel losses in exchange for incremental gains in Ukraine indefinitely and that Russia will be able to outlast Western support for Ukraine.[26] Putin is therefore desperately seeking to prevent the future supply of Western military aid to Ukraine, as well-resourced Ukrainian forces have consistently demonstrated their ability to inflict unsustainable losses on Russian forces and defend against significant Russian advances.[27] ISW assesses that Western aid remains vital to Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russian aggression and is crucial for ensuring a just and enduring peace in Ukraine and long-term security in Europe.[28]

Indy - Guy
Indy - Guy MegaDork
5/28/25 1:30 p.m.

More stall tactics?  Or is there any glimpse of hope for peace?

Article on Axios:

Russia proposes peace talks with Ukraine next week.

 

 

 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/28/25 3:17 p.m.

In reply to Indy - Guy :

Uhm... yeah.   

Fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me 42 more times....

 

Peace, yes... give us most of Ukraine and disarm them and install a pro-Russian government = peace. 

 I don't see a lot of reason why it would be different this time, unless there is some extremely serious immediate issues going on behind the scenes, and even still, the starting point would still be the same.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/28/25 3:20 p.m.

News is Germany is un-restricting the use of it's long range weapons, e.g. Taurus cruise missiles.

Germany will provide around €5 billion to support Ukraine’s defense, including financing production of long-range Ukrainian-made weapons, delivering air defense systems, weapons, ammunition, and funding military communication and medical equipment, the German MoD confirms.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim MegaDork
6/1/25 9:17 a.m.

Massive drone strike deep inside Russia.  Looks like they drove trucks a short distance from multiple airbases, and launched drones from them.  Claims that over 40 aircraft were hit, mostly bombers Russia was using to launch cruise missiles, but at least one A-50 was hit, too.  I think that makes 3 total so far.  I haven't seen anything in US news to corroborate it yet, but the BBC is reporting on it.

CNN is reporting multiple railroad and road bridges near the Ukrainian border were hit, too.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/1/25 10:03 a.m.

This attack appears to be a very large blow the Russia bomber force and their ability to launch cruise missiles, something that has been a huge issue for Ukraine for the entire war.  Not quite as big an event as it would haven been a year or two ago since Russia is now heavily using drones for attacks, but still very significant especially for precision strikes that would be needed for thing such as military targets.

Some pics from the article.   False tops on truck that launched the drones:

 

Burning Russian bombers;

Another shot of what is being call "planning".  This is certainly staged (notice complete lack of anything else in the pic), and talks to the Ukrainians clear want to make sure everyone know these planes are being blown up, and they are not accidents.  The X's on the photos are almost certainly fuel tank locations on the planes, for maximum burning potential.  Although a bomber will almost certainly not be sitting on the ramp with full fuel, there will almost always be some amount of fuel in them.

eastsideTim
eastsideTim MegaDork
6/1/25 3:05 p.m.

Was thinking, not only is this a massive blow as far as damage done, but it makes me wonder how much more economic damage is going to be done by the nearly inevitable more rigorous inspections of large vehicles traveling anywhere near military sites.

Would be poetic justice if one of these drone swarms takes out a drone factory (I know, that kind of damage is a lot easier to recover from).

AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter)
AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
6/1/25 3:26 p.m.

Russia's Ministry of Defense acknowledges that there were some FPV drones launched near their airbases. The attacks were repelled. Several pieces of aviation equipment caught fire. The fires have now been extinguished. 

If you are a Russian peasant and consuming Russian media, be assured; This is Fine.

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/1/25 3:46 p.m.

This strike happened less than 24h ago and I think we're still trying to figure out how significant (or not) it was. 

Reports from mainstream news sources are scarce, but according to the below economist article, Russia only has 90 or so strategic bombers, and 41 of them were hit last night. Russia's ability to manufacture replacements was described as glacial. 

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/06/01/an-astonishing-raid-deep-inside-russia-rewrites-the-rules-of-war

Yes, Russia is now using many more drones for bombing Ukraine, but getting 1/2 of your strategic bombers (or 1/6th of your nuclear triad?) wiped off the map in a day is...something.

====

EDIT: Ukraine is claiming closer to 1/3rd of strategic bombers have been hit. Not sure which of Econ's numbers are incorrect, but Ukraine has no reason to sandbag this one.

EDIT 2: Just to add to the festive atmosphere, I'm seeing reports it was also Prigozin's birthday. 

 

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
6/1/25 4:04 p.m.

The implications of this strike, even the least worst version of it, should be setting the Pentagon into a spin cycle right about now, particularly given recent Chinese land purchases near US Air Force bases and the abject lack of drone and air defenses on those bases.

DarkMonohue
DarkMonohue GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
6/1/25 4:23 p.m.

Just to point out exactly where this bomber base is located, it's here. It is directly north of Mongolia. Mongolia, gentlemen. 

 

It would be easy to use a crass euphemism here, so I will: that is some deep penetration in the rear.

Seems like the kind of event that, if anyone on that side were to evaluate it honestly, might be a bit of a confidence unbooster.

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/2/25 9:54 a.m.
eastsideTim said:

Was thinking, not only is this a massive blow as far as damage done, but it makes me wonder how much more economic damage is going to be done by the nearly inevitable more rigorous inspections of large vehicles traveling anywhere near military sites.

Would be poetic justice if one of these drone swarms takes out a drone factory (I know, that kind of damage is a lot easier to recover from).

Check out Irkutsk right now.  Trucks are backed up for MILES while armed guards search them.

Too late guys.  You're only adding to the economic damage at this point 🤣

Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter)
Hungary Bill (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/2/25 10:02 a.m.
02Pilot said:

The implications of this strike, even the least worst version of it, should be setting the Pentagon into a spin cycle right about now, particularly given recent Chinese land purchases near US Air Force bases and the abject lack of drone and air defenses on those bases.

I'm getting reports from the UK of MASSIVE MANPAD deployments at military installations.  It's obvious to the boots I talked to there that:

1)  they were not prepared to be shown they were this vulnerable to this sort of attack.

2) they have no idea how to effectively respond.

The attack in Russia is falling right as the UK was meeting about a national defense review.  It appears like they are shifting to "battle ready" levels of preparedness...

 

 

bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter)
bearmtnmartin (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/2/25 11:42 a.m.

Some interesting comments here from Ukraine echoing the frustrations of having other nations negotiate on their behalf under the assumption Ukraine has lost and has no more cards to play. I don't know if those drones were domestically made but the whole operation appears to have been done in house for the most part and did not rely on Western military aid. And of course the Ukraine just did the West a massive favor in terms of pointing out vulnerabilities. Not sure how much mineral access that is worth but perhaps a discount is now in order.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0r1jv0rn0ko

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
6/2/25 11:58 a.m.

Some more info on the strike:

Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against multiple air bases in Russia on June 1. Sources within Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told various media outlets that the SBU conducted widespread first-person view (FPV) drone strikes that struck four air bases in Russia.[1] The SBU sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Belaya Air Base in Irkutsk Oblast; Olenya Air Base in Murmansk Oblast; Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast; and Ivanovo Air Base in Ivanovo Oblast. The SBU sources confirmed that Ukrainian drone operators struck 41 Russian strategic aircraft, including A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers – fixed-wing aircraft that Russia uses to detect Ukrainian air defenses and launch cruise missiles against Ukraine. The SBU reported that the operation inflicted roughly $7 billion worth of damage on Russia.[2] The SBU sources confirmed that the SBU facilitated drone strikes by transporting the FPV drones to Russia at an unspecified time; storing the FPV drones in trucks carrying cargo units with retractable roofs; parking the trucks near the Russian air bases; and remotely opening the truck roofs and launching the FPVs. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that the operation used 117 drones and destroyed 34 percent of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers.[3] Zelensky stated that Ukrainian authorities withdrew the people who "assisted" Ukraine with the operation from Russia before the operation.[4] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted FPV drone strikes against air bases in Irkutsk, and Murmansk oblasts, causing several aircraft to catch fire.[5] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled all strikes against air bases in Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur oblasts and that Russian authorities reportedly linked Russian opposition outlet Mediazona reported that Ukrainian authorities planned to conduct FPV drone strikes against an air base in Amur Oblast, and Russian sources claimed that a truck carrying FPV drones near the Ukrainika Air Base in Amur Oblast caught fire before Ukrainian forces could launch the drones.[6]

Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine.

Russia will likely struggle to replace the aircraft that Ukrainian forces damaged and destroyed. Forbes reported in September 2023 that a single A-50 aircraft costs roughly $500 million, and the Kyiv Independent reported on June 1 that Russia has fewer than 10 A-50s in operation.[12] Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov stated on June 1 that Ukrainian forces destroyed some strategic aircraft that Russia does not currently produce.[13] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russia no longer produces chassis for the Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers and noted that the chassis are impossible to replace.[14] The Economist reported on June 1 that Russia likely has fewer than 90 operational Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160s in total.[15] Ukrainian sources have recently noted that Russia is increasingly using Sukhoi aircraft — and not strategic bombers — to launch cruise missiles.[16] Russia likely turned to Sukhoi aircraft so as to not risk their strategic bombers, suggesting that Russia is concerned about its limited quantities of strategic bombers.

Russian state media and milbloggers attempted to frame Ukraine's strikes against legitimate Russian military targets as undermining Russia's nuclear stability and as grounds for a Russian nuclear response — mirroring the Kremlin's repeated nuclear saber-rattling throughout the war that has aimed to prevent Western support for Ukraine.

CrustyRedXpress
CrustyRedXpress GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/2/25 3:15 p.m.

Not a military historian, but I can't remember watching military capabilities being re-written in public, to this extent, in real time, before this. 

On the other hand, do first world countries really leave their strategic bombers out in the open?

Also, specific to this conflict, what capability did the Ukrainians actually degrade here?

Noddaz
Noddaz GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
6/2/25 3:59 p.m.

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

The short answer here is that Russia has less air-frames that are going to log more hours.  If Russia dares to fly them at all.  Which Russia will of course do, because Russia does not have a choice.

nderwater
nderwater MegaDork
6/2/25 4:03 p.m.

Am I the only one thinking that these rapid advances in drone warfare are making the world a much scarier place to live?

stroker
stroker PowerDork
6/2/25 4:05 p.m.
nderwater said:

Am I the only one thinking that these rapid advances in drone warfare are making the world a much scarier place to live?

Wait'll they figure it out!

 

maschinenbau
maschinenbau GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/2/25 4:08 p.m.

TL;DR the capabilities affected:

aircooled said:

...fixed-wing aircraft that Russia uses to detect Ukrainian air defenses and launch cruise missiles against Ukraine. ...destroyed 34 percent of Russia's strategic cruise missile carriers.[3] 

Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine.

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