Stock market

In reply to Streetwiseguy:

Speaking as someone who works in an industry with a massive immigrant population (about 25% nationwide) and has lived south of the border, that's not a bet I would personally take.

Yeah, I'm not too hopeful, but I bring it up because the last time you guys went cowE36 M3, the $Cdn actually reached $1.04 US$, and with the inevitable retreat of investors to the safety of US$, a guy could have pocketed over 30% in a couple of years.

Streetwiseguy wrote: Follow up question. I heard this morning the Peso tanked rather badly. If that's true, and it hasn't recovered today, should a guy take some disposable cash and buy the peso? For all the posturing by the new chief Oompa Loompa, I don't see Mexico sliding into the Pacific anytime soon.

No way...there are more moving parts dictating how Mexico will ultimately shake out than a Jaguar V12 and us lowly grease monkeys aren’t even allowed to pop the hood.

Hookers and blow would be a more defendable investment move than betting on the Peso...way, way, way above our paygrade my friend.

crankwalk wrote:

STM317 wrote: Interesting (unexpected) reaction from the market so far today.

Supposed to be a disaster and now close to all time highs for the DOW. Is it just wishful thinking from the losing side that WANTS a catastophe so they can say "Look I told you so". When that doesn't happen, what does it actually mean?

Like I said, I still think it's coming, what we saw was the flinch at the promise, and the actual damage is still yet to come if and when the promised conditions materialize...same with Brexit.

Good time to diversify a greater % into international index funds?

SVreX wrote: In reply to Huckleberry: Is it income producing land? What has been your net return after paying the bills and property taxes and income taxes? Have you liquidated any of it? Curious, because I have also considered it. Just haven't been able to make the numbers work yet.

You can buy farmland up here by me, I'll happily pay cash rent to farm it.

Mitchell wrote: Good time to diversify a greater % into international index funds?

I got outta all my intl stuff earlier this year. I got tired of poor performance and the economic situation overseas just looked bleaker and bleaker. YMMV.

Currency speculation is probably one of the riskiest type you can find, or maybe second behind speculating on Beanie Babies.

The market shot up because we now have a business-friendly Congress and President. It will probably calm down, but continue to run positive over the next few years as Obamacare is dismantled and deregulation takes place. That is, of course, unless we go full out protectionism on trade, which is something Congress and the new Prez don't agree on.

And with total returns (dividends and appreciation) we're up almost 10% since the doom and gloom predicted on 11/9. You can not predict the market. A wealthy person in 50% cash cost themselves hundreds of thousands of dollars by staying in cash.

But now that it's up another 10%, some people will say - well - now it's a peak and now I'll wait for a dip to buy more. More overthinking and more useless predictions.

Investing in a set of good productive assets and holding them long term works. Buying and selling on guesses or the advice of "experts" loses you money more often than not.

dculberson wrote: But now that it's up another 10%, some people will say - well - *now* it's a peak and *now* I'll wait for a dip to buy more. More overthinking and more useless predictions.

For the record, this is what I'm thinking (although I should add that things are a lot less predictable in general these days...but I'm pretty sure there's a mighty dip coming).

GameboyRMH wrote:

dculberson wrote: But now that it's up another 10%, some people will say - well - *now* it's a peak and *now* I'll wait for a dip to buy more. More overthinking and more useless predictions.

For the record, this is what I'm thinking (although I should add that things are a lot less predictable in general these days...but I'm pretty sure there's a mighty dip coming).

I agree with your prediction (there is a mighty dip coming), but fortunately it is vauge enough of a prediction to be useless. It is the stock market, there will ALWAYS be another massive dip.

But when will it start? and what value will be at or near the peak? Those are the predictions that matter.

I think the big dip is coming within the next 4 months, to be more specific.

BTW - whenever someone tries to tell me they know the right answer in advance more than 50% of the time, I tell them to start playing the stock market.

"Smart person like you should be able to predict what's going to happen, especially since you know you have a strong track record of successful predictions already."

GameboyRMH wrote: I think the big dip is coming within the next 4 months, to be more specific.

Now we're talking!

I remember that stock market game, and I found it disturbing how easy it was to make money by shorting Blackberry's stock. Seems I could casually surf it right into the ground.

Also wish I'd stayed on the Twitter mechanical bull ride...would've paid off massively but it was a wild ride and I wanted off that crazy thing!

GameboyRMH wrote: I found it disturbing how easy it was to make money by shorting Blackberry's stock. Seems I could casually surf it right into the ground.

I happen to think Apple is going to be on the steep downward over the next 10 years, and Jobs will not be able to save them again. They may never recover.

Sure there will be a dip, at some point. But that's just my point - that information isn't actionable for an investor. You put yourself in cash afraid of the next dip and you end up sitting out more rallies than dips. Because over time the market makes more money than it loses. So then you are waging a psychological war with yourself and you end up afraid to get back in since it's "too high."

Meanwhile janitors that buy and hold can still retire with millions since they're not trying to outsmart the market.

Robbie wrote:

GameboyRMH wrote: I found it disturbing how easy it was to make money by shorting Blackberry's stock. Seems I could casually surf it right into the ground.

I happen to think Apple is going to be on the steep downward over the next 10 years, and Jobs will not be able to save them again. They may never recover.

Yep, they've taken their eyes off the ball (product) in favor of becoming fully SJW-converged.

dculberson wrote: Sure there will be a dip, at some point. But that's just my point - that information isn't actionable for an investor. You put yourself in cash afraid of the next dip and you end up sitting out more rallies than dips. Because over time the market makes more money than it loses. So then you are waging a psychological war with yourself and you end up afraid to get back in since it's "too high." Meanwhile janitors that buy and hold can still retire with millions since they're not trying to outsmart the market.

I have to agree with this statement 100%! My net worth in the market is over 20 times my highest annual income when I worked allowing me to retire at 55! Buy & hold stocks, buy dividend stocks that increase their payout on a regular basis, reinvest the dividends, always hold some cash too, and don't sell in a down market.

Who was the guy who won the last GRM Investment game that we started with 10,000 and by the time we were done a year later he had like $800k?

I believe that guy.

pheller wrote: Who was the guy who won the last GRM Investment game that we started with 10,000 and by the time we were done a year later he had like $800k? I believe that guy.

If I win the lottery, does that mean I am a better lottery player then everyone else?

Robbie wrote:

GameboyRMH wrote: I found it disturbing how easy it was to make money by shorting Blackberry's stock. Seems I could casually surf it right into the ground.

I happen to think Apple is going to be on the steep downward over the next 10 years, and Jobs will not be able to save them again. They may never recover.

Agreed, I actually shorted Apple's stock in the same game.

On a related note, my 4-month window may have been excessively generous. What response will this get? US/Mexico trade war, anyone?

It's hard to make bets in "the market" as a whole. I can see hints of a trade war and geopolitical instability which would indicate a coming drop, but if we also see oil up over $80 and deregulation in banking then gains in those areas could cover up drops in other areas. On top of that, I'm pretty sure there are whole percentage point moves that are driven by overlapping algorithms fighting with each other which makes actually watching things that much more confusing.
I'm like a LOT of people I know right know who are watching their balance thinking "just a couple more years like this.....come on......" Interesting times.

I subscribe to a couple of investment newsletters. Mainly for the entertainment value, since I really don't have the free cash to play in the market like their normal customers (my net worth is lacking a zero or two). However, it's interesting to read their take on the various happenings in the world from the POV of (essentially) pure greed and without any sort of social conservative or liberal slant.

The biggest thing they've been writing about lately is the massive amount of debt created in the US over the past 8-9 years. Not just govt, but also corporate and private and how even a small increase in interest rates has the potential to bring the economy to a screeching halt. In many/most cases, the debt can't really be paid off when it comes due, so it has to be refinanced. Right now, that debt is at interest rates near zero, but the numbers we're talking about (10s of trillions of $) would mean even a small interest rate increase could wipe out corporate earnings in the increased financing costs.

Needless to say, they paint a pretty bleak picture right now. But even they say they don't know (and definitely don't hope) if or when these predictions will come true. Their main argument is back in 2008 there should have been a sizable market correction as a result of the housing crash, but the Fed intervened and essentially kicked the can down the road through the "Quantitative Easing" and low rate policies. For 8 years. If/when the resulting bubble bursts, the financial fall-out could make the "Great Recession" of 2008/9 look like a Sunday picnic.

So yes... interesting times indeed...

And for the record, trying to time the stock market is not "investing" - it's "speculating". The latter is much riskier.

Go Nvidia! I bought my shares at $14. each!

Anybody have money in the NFL Wildcard this weekend? There are strong returns to be had for the savvy investor.