Tropical storm Ian

If anyone is looking to GTFO Florida before the storm hits we're about 425-miles from Gainesville, have a spare bedroom & the RV you can stay in.

I am staying put. My brother decided to go on vacation. I have my house, his house and my parents house to get ready. 

We'll probably stay put, if only because I want to eat  the delicious salty unhealthy hurricane foods--plus we have too much here (both things and family) to leave.
Forecast puts us in the bullseye for Ian's exit into the Atlantic, but I've always maintained that if you have to be in the center of the cone, better it be 5 days out because it usually shifts. Still, this is gonna be a wet one for us. Not ideal.

Margie

As of right now, the Tampa area looks like it's going to finally get a close/direct hit. Estimates are currently a Cat 3 at landfall, meaning a major storm with 111-129 mph winds. According to the NHS, "Devastating damage will occur: Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes."

Yay! 

I live in one of the highest spots in Tampa so flooding is not an issue. I will spend the next two days cleaning up the yard, strapping things down, making sure the generator is working, and getting all my saws ready to go. I'll probably also pump down the pool to a lower-than-normal level on Tuesday.

The wife is supposed to head to ATL tomorrow for 3 days of consulting, supposedly coming back Wed night. Still up in the air whether or not that will happen. Either way, I'll be here with the cats and most likely my in-laws with their cat as they are in a mandatory evac zone. We always lose power in storms like this due to the tree-to-powerline ratio. I'm planning on being without power for at least a week. Good times.

If any TB members have to evacuate but want to stay in the area, LMK. Stay safe!

New update shifted it further north away from us. Still too far away to make any predictions though.

In reply to Slippery :

Ugh, that would send the eye right over my house.

I predict that if this hits Cuba like the tracker shows it will loose a lot of power. 

But strangely the tracker says it arrives at Cuba as a H and leaves Cuba as M. That doesn't seem typical. 

We got a spare room up here near Charleston sc and a good bit of parking.

John Welsh said:

I predict that if this hits Cuba like the tracker shows it will loose a lot of power. 

But strangely the tracker says it arrives at Cuba as a H and leaves Cuba as M. That doesn't seem typical. 

Cuba is mostly flat, especially in the west, and relatively narrow there, so doesn't really interfere with a storm's circulation. The reason hurricanes lose punch over Haiti and the D.R. is because Hispaniola has rugged, storm-chewing mountains. Hurricanes can also gain strength while crossing flat, warm and moist South Florida. (Wilma)

Margie

Now looking at spagetti models, GFS and HWRF has it passing right over my home.  

We're GTFO'ing. Made a family rule after Irma that if a cat 3+ was hitting this coast we'd be gone 3 days before projected landfall.

1. Irma was originally supposed to hit Miami but it hit the opposite coast. By the time the west coast realized they should evacuate the roads were already a logjam and stations were frequently out of gasoline.

2. By the time you realize "Oh E36 M3, we should leave" it's too late to do so.

3. Even if you stay you could lose power for more than a week, in September, in FL

If you need to board up your house the plywood may already be gone. Don't fear! Grab the 2x4s and that 1/4" stuff that everybody thinks is too thin and combine them.

Is your lanai insured? Is it bolted down to the slab, or have those fasteners rusted away? Get the concrete fasteners in there now, and consider cutting the screens if you're gonna take a direct hit

Any elderly neighbors you should check in on?

Good luck and take care of each other!

Marjorie Suddard said:

John Welsh said:

I predict that if this hits Cuba like the tracker shows it will loose a lot of power. 

But strangely the tracker says it arrives at Cuba as a H and leaves Cuba as M. That doesn't seem typical. 

Cuba is mostly flat, especially in the west, and relatively narrow there, so doesn't really interfere with a storm's circulation. The reason hurricanes lose punch over Haiti and the D.R. is because Hispaniola has rugged, storm-chewing mountains. Hurricanes can also gain strength while crossing flat, warm and moist South Florida. (Wilma)

Margie

What Margie said. Plus the water is so hot this time of the year between Cuba and the Tampa area that it has plenty of time to build itself and gain momentum. 

I think I'll be out of the danger zone.  But who knows.  

I just took a call from a friend that was planning on flying in Thursday to spend some time at the beach for his 60th bd. I told him to make other plans because both St Pete/Clw and Tampa Int. could spend the day underwater on Wed if the storm follows the projected path. 

I remember just before Fiona formed there was an article pointing out that the season had been unexpectedly quiet so far, and that either the predictions were so wrong that it would be a quiet season or there would be a ton of storms in the latter half of the season. Looks like the second scenario so far:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/09/this-should-be-the-absolute-peak-of-hurricane-season-but-its-dead-quiet-out-there/

Ugh.

I've got a dead limb directly over the driveway.  This is gonna shake it loose.  I wanted to wait until I could pay someone to bring it down, but I guess I'll have to look into figuring it out myself.
At least this one is little enough to not be a pain for me to get down.

Mr_Asa said:

Ugh.

I've got a dead limb directly over the driveway.  This is gonna shake it loose.  I wanted to wait until I could pay someone to bring it down, but I guess I'll have to look into figuring it out myself.
At least this one is little enough to not be a pain for me to get down.

Get help and go slow. I want to shake your hand and have a beer with you at the challenge this year so you'll need both arms working.

In reply to CrustyRedXpress :

Yeah, I went out there and put the ladder up, climbed up, climbed down, moved the ladder, repeat, move ladder again, repeat.

No.
I'm making sure the renter's insurance has storm loss on it, and then I'm just going to claim against the landlords if it drops.  We've put in a ticket every year for dead limbs in these damn water oaks.

We're also in the same county as the GRM Mothership, so any comments from Marjorie apply for us. 
 

I'm at the Speedway to spectate the first few cars out for the track sprint, then I'm going home to get gas for the generator, clean the gutters, check the water and canned food supply. 

I'm in S FL and just got home from grocery shopping. Place was packed with deep check out lines. Water, toilet paper, and other items had sold out already.

I rebuilt the exterior of my house last year and in the process replaced all the exterior wood siding, soffits, fascia, as well as resetting trusses and adding X bracing in the attic. I ended up  fixing a LOT of previous poor quality repairs that appeared to have been done after substantial hurricane damage in the past and replaced 15 sheets of plywood roof decking. The only thing I didn't do myself was the actual roofing install (because building permit regulations) so it will be interesting if we get hit hard here. I was dead center when Wilma came through and was in the NE quadrant when Irma came through, both caused roof and other damage.

GFS now has a projection hitting Pensacola.  At this rate it will hit Texas...   Maybe retailers (Publix) pay to have the cone sweep a huge area.   LOL   

Carefully watching.  But, we do have all vehicles filled up.  It hurt putting 60 gallons in the rv.  We use the RV genset to run all the freezers in the home.

NHC track has it crossing north of me, for now. The trees are pretty well shaken of dead branches after the summer t-storms and there's not much to secure outside. Here's hoping that my 50yr old budget windows installed in a rush are good for another season. I'm not concerned enough to borrow a truck and remortgage the house for plywood, I don't think it will be heavier than a severe t-storm for me and we weather those just fine. Power lines are buried in the neighborhood but it will go out, no way it doesn't. Water shouldn't be interrupted for more than a day or two locally if a lift station gets overwhelmed. Thinking about sending the wiffle to her folks, sturdier walls and windows would do good things for her incessant worrying. Is Sunday too early?

In reply to Error404 :

Certainly not too soon, especially since traveling will be much more difficult as it gets closer. It depends on your comfort level. Gas stations here are already getting hit hard. My primary local source for ethanol free is already out. 
 

For arrival in central Florida, Wednesday the prediction. 

I was supposed to go sailing in maryland this coming weekend.  Does not look like that is going to happen now.

For all those in the target of this storm, good luck, we're all counting on you.