Cotton said:bobzilla said:So if its raining we can never eat again outside of our home? yeah, that's no happening. We;ve had resteraunts open for almost 3 weeks now without the expected spike.
Our restaurants have been open for in person dining since May 1st, you see hardly any masks, no spike.
https://www.newschannel5.com/news/few-people-seen-wearing-masks-as-nashville-eases-restrictions
but e'r'one gonna die! That's good news.
Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
I was making a joke. I bought the HAnkook RS-4's for the tib yesterday and installed them. Word is they are terrible in the rain, its raining. Will I die? Will a mask help with these tires not killing me. Jokes. I has them even if they must be explained
CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
Cotton said:Fueled by Caffeine said:In reply to Cotton :
If this is true. This is good. More data better decision making.
Agreed, it's looking good. More restrictions, like live music and various outdoor events (racing with spectators), are easing up next week, so more data coming.
I really look forward to this information. I would not be there myself, just because of my position in life (infant child, previously my daughter passed away due to a virus, immunosuppressed MIL, older parents, etc.), but if I was in college or single I'd be out there living it up for sure. Probably traveling a lot (with a mask). Hopefully we don't see much of a spike.
bobzilla said:In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
I was making a joke. I bought the HAnkook RS-4's for the tib yesterday and installed them. Word is they are terrible in the rain, its raining. Will I die? Will a mask help with these tires not killing me. Jokes. I has them even if they must be explained
Well I have spun a FWD econobox in hot weather in the dry on RS-3's, so... you're probably gonna die in a firey wreck if it rains. Only outcome that we can expect, honestly.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:bobzilla said:In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
I was making a joke. I bought the HAnkook RS-4's for the tib yesterday and installed them. Word is they are terrible in the rain, its raining. Will I die? Will a mask help with these tires not killing me. Jokes. I has them even if they must be explained
Well I have spun a FWD econobox in hot weather in the dry on RS-3's, so... you're probably gonna die in a firey wreck if it rains. Only outcome that we can expect, honestly.
WAIT... which RS-3? The V2 or the original? The RS3V2 was amazeballs on the first Forte
ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
Agreed (we're doing this too much lately. We may want to get checked out).
ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
Right, we are seeing an increase in positives as testing increases, but we are not seeing a corresponding increase in hospital admissions Covid related (although many people seem to be going back in for elective surgeries etc).
ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
I'd agree with that.
ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
The other data point to look at is the percentage of tests that are positive.
if you test positive are you required to quarantine at home for X amount of days ?
If so would that stop many from wanting to be tested as they need the $$$$ from working ?
No Time said:ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
The other data point to look at is the percentage of tests that are positive.
I'm not so sure about this one being a good data point.
Early in the process, you're looking at an extremely biased population - those with symptoms. So we'll see a higher % positive.
As we go on, we're getting more tests, and more people are being tested regardless of symptoms. Add in the fact that social distancing has been in effect to some degree pretty much everywhere, I'm not sure that it is really helpful in terms of driving decision making.
The other thing to be careful of is the intermixing of viral and antibody tests. Antibody can tell you that you had it at some point (possibly still do). Viral will tell you that you have it now, you're a new case. Really need to be careful that there isn't any double counting, as well as not counting Antibody tests as "new" cases unless you can backdate it (and you'd have to backdate it at least 7 days).
californiamilleghia said:if you test positive are you required to quarantine at home for X amount of days ?
If so would that stop many from wanting to be tested as they need the $$$$ from working ?
Didn't the CARES act require people to receive 14 days paid if they had to quarantine due to COVID?
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:No Time said:The other data point to look at is the percentage of tests that are positive.
I'm not so sure about this one being a good data point.
Early in the process, you're looking at an extremely biased population - those with symptoms. So we'll see a higher % positive.
As we go on, we're getting more tests, and more people are being tested regardless of symptoms. Add in the fact that social distancing has been in effect to some degree pretty much everywhere, I'm not sure that it is really helpful in terms of driving decision making.
Agreed. I tend to evaluate these from a math standpoint. Look at the extremes.
If you only had a single test, you would test someone who is a strong candidate to have it.
If you had an infinite supply of tests, you would test everyone.
So as you increase the # of tests, the % of positive tests will likely go down.
93EXCivic said:californiamilleghia said:if you test positive are you required to quarantine at home for X amount of days ?
If so would that stop many from wanting to be tested as they need the $$$$ from working ?
Didn't the CARES act require people to receive 14 days paid if they had to quarantine due to COVID?
Yes. But that expires June 1 I believe.
bobzilla said:93EXCivic said:californiamilleghia said:if you test positive are you required to quarantine at home for X amount of days ?
If so would that stop many from wanting to be tested as they need the $$$$ from working ?
Didn't the CARES act require people to receive 14 days paid if they had to quarantine due to COVID?
Yes. But that expires June 1 I believe.
Oh that could become a problem.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:No Time said:ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
The other data point to look at is the percentage of tests that are positive.
I'm not so sure about this one being a good data point.
Early in the process, you're looking at an extremely biased population - those with symptoms. So we'll see a higher % positive.
As we go on, we're getting more tests, and more people are being tested regardless of symptoms. Add in the fact that social distancing has been in effect to some degree pretty much everywhere, I'm not sure that it is really helpful in terms of driving decision making.
The other thing to be careful of is the intermixing of viral and antibody tests. Antibody can tell you that you had it at some point (possibly still do). Viral will tell you that you have it now, you're a new case. Really need to be careful that there isn't any double counting, as well as not counting Antibody tests as "new" cases unless you can backdate it (and you'd have to backdate it at least 7 days).
I've heard from mtiple sources that the target metric for positive tests as a percentage of the whole is 10%. Even a few percentage more, and it means a significant number of persons are positive, whom aren't being tested. I don't see how we can make any sort of good decisions based on other data till we get to the point where we know we're actually testing enough based on the science.
Las Vegas will open up this weekend ,
Smoking OK in the casinos , masks on if you want to , some distancing ,
its over 100 degrees now so outside dining will be limited ,
So throw in alcohol and party atmosphere and we will see how things are as far as a spike in a couple weeks !
The bad part is most of the people will be driving up from Southern California and maybe taking home the virus back home .
Stay safe , its a long road......
I don't think the % positives, or any on the data points provide a complete picture.
The benefits start to show up when looking at the whole picture and data set and combine the different data points to understand what they mean in context and not looking at them in isolation. .
bluej (Forum Supporter) said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:No Time said:ProDarwin said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:CJ (He's Just an FS) said:Tennessee has had 9,074 COVID-19 cases since May 1st and 139 deaths.
The better information to look at here is, how many new cases have they had between May 1-7, 7-14, 14-21, and 21 to today. If it is relatively flat (or declining), it is excellent news. If it is showing an (a statistically significant) increase, it is bad news.
I disagree. The problem is testing is increasing dramatically most places, so cases will increase with it. Even a decline may look like a spike.
The best data to look at is hospitalizations, but that seems harder to find.
The other data point to look at is the percentage of tests that are positive.
I'm not so sure about this one being a good data point.
Early in the process, you're looking at an extremely biased population - those with symptoms. So we'll see a higher % positive.
As we go on, we're getting more tests, and more people are being tested regardless of symptoms. Add in the fact that social distancing has been in effect to some degree pretty much everywhere, I'm not sure that it is really helpful in terms of driving decision making.
The other thing to be careful of is the intermixing of viral and antibody tests. Antibody can tell you that you had it at some point (possibly still do). Viral will tell you that you have it now, you're a new case. Really need to be careful that there isn't any double counting, as well as not counting Antibody tests as "new" cases unless you can backdate it (and you'd have to backdate it at least 7 days).
I've heard from mtiple sources that the target metric for positive tests as a percentage of the whole is 10%. Even a few percentage more, and it means a significant number of persons are positive, whom aren't being tested. I don't see how we can make any sort of good decisions based on other data till we get to the point where we know we're actually testing enough based on the science.
But this will only work with a truly random sample. Not sure how we get that. Unless the 10% model takes into account that you will only have a biased sample.
californiamilleghia said:
Stay safe , its a long road......
People keep saying this. But is it? How do we know? Maybe it was just a really bumpy road but its short? We don't know.
bobzilla said:californiamilleghia said:
Stay safe , its a long road......
People keep saying this. But is it? How do we know? Maybe it was just a really bumpy road but its short? We don't know.
Data out of Sweden seems to be suggesting that the antibodies rendering someone immune to COVID-19 haven't developed to the levels the health department thought they would, as quickly as they thought it would.
Something like 25% of their population has been exposed while only a bit more than 7% have developed the necessary antibodies to support the herd immunity strategy.
I'm a bit unclear if that means it is spreading slower than expected or if that means the 18% of the populace affected by COVID is open to reinfection.
In the last three weeks, Kentucky has administered 14,000 (+/-) tests and 6.25% of those came back positive. The Gov has been asking people to go and get tested (for free) so I actually made an appointment for the whole family to go and get our brains swabbed first thing on Monday morning. We're going to go on absolute lockdown at the house for the day or two that it takes to get the results and if we're all negative, as we expect, we're going to have a visit with my parents for the first time in 12 weeks.
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