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SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/30/20 1:02 p.m.

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

It's been 3 weeks for GA.  No spike in cases.

3 weeks since reopening GA

But business sure sucks. 

Mndsm
Mndsm MegaDork
5/30/20 1:17 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
IMndsm said:
Steve_Jones said:

I haven't read all 191 pages, which poster is actually an infectious disease researcher? 

Mtn has an inside source or something. 

I’ve shared everything I’ve found and read that I thought was worthwhile in the covid updates thread, or else linked to it here with I believe only 2 exceptions - the hamster study, which I could no longer find the actual study and only reporting on, and the shop towel as a filter for your mask, for basically the same reason. 

 

I would not call it an inside source, if I’m allowed to be nitpicky with that definition. Everything can be found online with a little bit of digging. My first search is usually on Becker’s hospital review, as it is generally written in English or close to it, and will be very reliable. 

It's all good. I'll be honest, I haven't read any of it- I've pretty much been locked down for 3 months for various reasons, and it's not improving. 

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/30/20 1:34 p.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :

It's been 3 weeks for GA.  No spike in cases.

3 weeks since reopening GA

But business sure sucks. 

Your link is 15 days old. Georgia Department of Health seems to have a different view: 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Here is a screenshot from there, taken at 2:30PM EST on 5/30/20 (Providing the date and time as a timestamp, because this data will be changing and we need to watch the change closely)

EDIT: as the note below the graph states, the data can take up to 14 days, so it may be declining since that spike that started on May 10, or it may be plateauing, or it may be increasing still - We don't know yet. /EDIT

 

The above was new cases. The important number to watch there is the 7-day moving average, since it will smooth out spikes and dips and give you a better trend. 

Luckily, the death rate does seem to be dropping - although I would wait another 1-2 weeks to put any weight on that statement (same link as above, same time): 

Steve_Jones
Steve_Jones Reader
5/30/20 2:19 p.m.
Mndsm said:
Steve_Jones said:

I haven't read all 191 pages, which poster is actually an infectious disease researcher? 

Mtn has an inside source or something. 

So, no one here is actually in the field then. Got it. 

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/30/20 2:23 p.m.
Steve_Jones said:
Mndsm said:
Steve_Jones said:

I haven't read all 191 pages, which poster is actually an infectious disease researcher? 

Mtn has an inside source or something. 

So, no one here is actually in the field then. Got it. 

Steve, have you read the COVID Updates thread? It will take a while, but it is worth it. Posts are from a retired Internist who has been researching everything he can find for COVID, as well as a retired Pediatrician who was also a full professor at University of Washington, and participated in vaccine trials. 

Cotton
Cotton PowerDork
5/30/20 2:40 p.m.

In reply to Steve_Jones :

We definitely seem to have an "expert" or two.  

T.J.
T.J. MegaDork
5/30/20 2:58 p.m.

Was able to buy toilet paper today. First resupply since March. Thank goodness we had a good amount when this hit. Our supplies were getting low. 
 

Wonder if I'll be able to buy napkins soon? We scored some paper towels a couple weeks ago. Things are looking up. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/30/20 8:22 p.m.

Warning: There apparently is a "thing" going around about how Anthony Fauci is no longer recommending wearing masks.  One problem, it's actually a quote from March. (I am not sure how wide spread this is because it was originally uploaded on May 9th, but I just heard it from someone, must be on social media somewhere)

....a YouTube channel called Voice of the Majority uploaded a clip of Dr. Anthony Fauci telling CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jonathan LaPook that there’s no reason people in the U.S. should wear a mask. One glaring problem: the clip is from a March interview

It's a bit of an old thing, but seems to be making it's way around again.

Of course, this also points out how the original recommendation to not wear masks (which apparently was to save them for medical professionals) should have been presented with a lot more transparency as to why.  The echoes of that are still being felt of course.

a YouTube channel called Voice of the Majority uploaded a clip of Dr. Anthony Fauci telling CBS News chief medical correspondent Dr. Jonathan LaPook that there’s no reason people in the U.S. should wear a mask. One glaring problem: the clip is from a March interview

 

STM317
STM317 UltraDork
5/30/20 8:48 p.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

Your link is 15 days old. Georgia Department of Health seems to have a different view: 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Here is a screenshot from there, taken at 2:30PM EST on 5/30/20 (Providing the date and time as a timestamp, because this data will be changing and we need to watch the change closely)

EDIT: as the note below the graph states, the data can take up to 14 days, so it may be declining since that spike that started on May 10, or it may be plateauing, or it may be increasing still - We don't know yet. /EDIT

 

The above was new cases. The important number to watch there is the 7-day moving average, since it will smooth out spikes and dips and give you a better trend.

The thing about "cases", is that it totally depends on the amount of testing you're doing. Many states that are opening are doing so in part because of an increased ability to test. Performing more tests could easily explain an increase in reported "cases" without there actually being an increase in the spread of the virus.

As of May 7th, they'd ramped up testing and had opened testing up to anybody that wanted it whether they had symptoms or not.

On Friday, May 15th, the GA department of Health reported 301,874 tests administered.

Here's that number now, at the time of this post:

So the spike in cases beginning on May 10th more or less aligns with an increased amount of available testing. Additionally, in the last two weeks, they've nearly doubled the amount of tests they've performed (79% increase). That makes the spike in "cases" less concerning to me.

mtn (Forum Supporter)
mtn (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/30/20 9:00 p.m.
STM317 said:
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:

Your link is 15 days old. Georgia Department of Health seems to have a different view: 

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Here is a screenshot from there, taken at 2:30PM EST on 5/30/20 (Providing the date and time as a timestamp, because this data will be changing and we need to watch the change closely)

EDIT: as the note below the graph states, the data can take up to 14 days, so it may be declining since that spike that started on May 10, or it may be plateauing, or it may be increasing still - We don't know yet. /EDIT

 

The above was new cases. The important number to watch there is the 7-day moving average, since it will smooth out spikes and dips and give you a better trend.

The thing about "cases", is that it totally depends on the amount of testing you're doing. Many states that are opening are doing so in part because of an increased ability to test. Performing more tests could easily explain an increase in reported "cases" without there actually being an increase in the spread of the virus.

On Friday, May 15th, the GA department of Health reported 301,874 tests administered.

Here's that number now, at the time of this post:

So in the last two weeks, they've nearly doubled the amount of tests they've performed (79% increase). That makes the spike in "cases" less concerning to me.

You're right, the number we should be looking at is the hospitalizations. Anybody able to find that backdated at all? 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
5/30/20 9:15 p.m.

Masks are required to enter the store.   OK, done.  He IS wearing the mask correctly...

Sorry about the poor quality, I was being a bit sneaky.  I suspect he was just being a smart ass.  I don't think masks are required in the store.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/31/20 6:57 a.m.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:
Steve, have you read the COVID Updates thread? 

I have.  I find it overwhelmingly one-sided.  It fits a narrative.

Mtn, I really respect you and all the effort you have put in.  But your responses are completely contrarian to anything that doesn't fit the narrative you believe in, even though your in-depth attempts at analyzing data generally end with the (accurate) recognition that "we don't know yet".  You are correct.

The problem with overly relying on the data is that it is only available after something has happened.  Things are unfolding, and decisions need to be made on the fly.  If you are walking into a cross-fire, you're gonna have to make decisions without being able to analyze the statistics of the death toll.  The bottom line is that we HAVE to make decisions, even though we don't know yet.

I would be deeply interested in reading anything you may be able to put the same effort into that explored the damages caused by the economic impact.  Mental health.  Physical health.  Suicide rates.  Strength or weakness of the economic safety net.  Projected long term outcome.  This is the side of the issue you don't put much into.

I respect your data and your efforts, but it is not what I am seeing in the real world.

A pandemic has happened.  Things are bad.  Decisions cannot be made in a vacuum without information from all facets that are impacted.  There are things we DO know, and cannot ignore.  And there are things we will not know until its all over.

Thank you.

Cotton
Cotton PowerDork
5/31/20 11:53 a.m.
Fueled by Caffeine said:
Cotton said:

Looks like Minneapolis ended lockdown early.  Not seeing a lot of social distancing though.

This comment didn't age well

From the looks of the crowds in the various cities it appears social distancing is over and masks are for when you're engaged in criminal acts.  My original post was just some dark humor,  but I truly hate seeing all this unfold.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) MegaDork
5/31/20 12:43 p.m.

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

"what I am seeing in the real world" is a difficult, and possibly loaded, statement, because one only sees one part of the elephant.

 

I could just as easily say that it makes no sense to do maintenance on a car because it is just going to be rusted out and scrap by the time it is paid off.  That is, after all, "what I am seeing in the real world".  Interesting how that works:  It says that my experiences are real and yours are fake.  Of course that is not true, every area has their own different situation.

I am happy that I do not live where people are falling ill, and I am also happy that everywhere I go, I see people taking easy, sensible precautions without getting all crazy and antisocial about it.

captdownshift (Forum Supporter)
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) UltimaDork
5/31/20 3:58 p.m.

In mid January I said there'd be a pandemic. It was dismissed. (Closed floundered thread on virus; Wuhan). 

 

In mid April I said there'd be violence, it was dismissed. (PG 144)

 

Y'all wouldn't like to hear what's coming next, though you'd dismiss it if told. 

californiamilleghia
californiamilleghia Dork
5/31/20 4:06 p.m.
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

In mid January I said there'd be a pandemic. It was dismissed. (Closed floundered thread on virus; Wuhan). 

 

In mid April I said there'd be violence, it was dismissed. (PG 144)

 

Y'all wouldn't like to hear what's coming next, though you'd dismiss it if told. 

you have some Quik Pic lottery numbers ?

Javelin (Forum Supporter)
Javelin (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/31/20 4:09 p.m.
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

In mid January I said there'd be a pandemic. It was dismissed. (Closed floundered thread on virus; Wuhan). 

 

In mid April I said there'd be violence, it was dismissed. (PG 144)

 

Y'all wouldn't like to hear what's coming next, though you'd dismiss it if told. 

I would like to know please. 

No Time
No Time Dork
5/31/20 4:11 p.m.

In reply to captdownshift (Forum Supporter) :

Now I'm curious....

captdownshift (Forum Supporter)
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) UltimaDork
5/31/20 4:17 p.m.

This is the first of the three that I'm not "I'd bet lots of money" on confident, but I'm saying a better than 65% chance, that we don't see an election in November between the two presumed candidates. 

Either one of them won't be around come November, or forces will postpone or delay the election process, sparking additional violence in the process. 

barefootskater
barefootskater SuperDork
5/31/20 4:21 p.m.
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

This is the first of the three that I'm not "I'd bet lots of money" on confident, but I'm saying a better than 65% chance, that we don't see an election in November between the two presumed candidates. 

Either one of them won't be around come November, or forces will postpone or delay the election process, sparking additional violence in the process. 

I think you posted this in the wrong thread. It'd fit in this one: https://grassrootsmotorsports.com/forum/off-topic-discussion/conspiracy-theorys/157632/page1/

wink 

former520
former520 HalfDork
5/31/20 4:27 p.m.
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

This is the first of the three that I'm not "I'd bet lots of money" on confident, but I'm saying a better than 65% chance, that we don't see an election in November between the two presumed candidates. 

Either one of them won't be around come November, or forces will postpone or delay the election process, sparking additional violence in the process. 

We had a discussion on this earlier in the week at the office.  The conversation focused on while everything is bad and taking over the news, at least we have not been barraged by political ads, us vs them over hype TV.  We are 5 months to election day on Tuesday, hardly a mention of it regularly.

Ian F (Forum Supporter)
Ian F (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
5/31/20 4:28 p.m.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I wouldn't say that analogy is accurate, because historical data gathered over many decades has determined that if you maintain a car properly, it won't be a rusted out hulk by the time it's paid off.

Which is (what I take to be) SVerX's point - we don't have enough data about all of this right now and what data we are gathering can be conflicting, depending on numerous factors. 

Putting data up on a pedestal is fine, but if you're going to do that, you have to remove any emotional attachments to previous conclusions you have made as new data many prove those conclusions invalid. You need to be willing to admit a past analysis was wrong.  And be willing to accept a future analysis has a good chance of being wrong as well as new data is gathered in the future.

Sine_Qua_Non
Sine_Qua_Non SuperDork
5/31/20 4:30 p.m.
T.J. said:

Was able to buy toilet paper today. First resupply since March. Thank goodness we had a good amount when this hit. Our supplies were getting low. 
 

Wonder if I'll be able to buy napkins soon? We scored some paper towels a couple weeks ago. Things are looking up. 

Sure at the stores but damn the jump in spikes coming around in the SE is rough. Definitely opened back up too soon without a SOLID plan in place. Too much conflicting info from WHO, CDC, White House and state government. The 2nd wave is going to hit early and the Fall will become the 3rd wave. Buckle up and stay safe. I wear a mask in public and at work everyday. Wish we all could be on the same page about this. 

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) MegaDork
5/31/20 4:32 p.m.
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) said:

In mid January I said there'd be a pandemic. It was dismissed. (Closed floundered thread on virus; Wuhan). 

 

In mid April I said there'd be violence, it was dismissed. (PG 144)

 

Y'all wouldn't like to hear what's coming next, though you'd dismiss it if told. 

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I was under the impression that the recent unpleasantness was related to other things.  COVID not the direct reason, but an amplifying effect to other societal issues.

 

As someone pointed out on another forum, things are different when you don't have to worry about going to work the next day.

captdownshift (Forum Supporter)
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) UltimaDork
5/31/20 4:44 p.m.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

That's one perspective, the other isn't that it's idle hands, but the lack of financial security and confidence in the system, currently or in the near future, as was a direction stated in April. There's some correlation. But trust me, simply idle hands would rather invest the time and effort into improving one's home and community. People want to have and take pride in where they are from, what they've persevered and what they've created. It's a lack of sense of security and a lack of hope that breeds violence. 

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