When is it time to panic

The transmission of the virus is not from free floating virus (I am not sure that is even practically possible), it is contained in droplets (from what they know now).  It's the droplets, which are FAR larger than the virus that are stopped by the masks, even simple cloth ones. 

I am sure they are not perfect, but they are WAY better then no mask (I think 80%+ effective in a test that was done).  Someone sneezes in you face even if you have a mask, well... maybe not so much.

Clearly, in more extreme conditions (medical settings etc), more protection is warranted (eye shields, N95 masks).

In reply to aircooled :

Very good non angry explanation without the political/emotional/agenda loading that has been hard to separate from in this thread. Thank you, from all of us that want to be open minded. Panic-y public has affected my life more than the virus ever could, but I realize I'm blessed.

"Nother question. 6' is thrown around a lot... how long and how far do droplets from normal breathing/talking (not spittle talk) affect other people, by reasonable consensus? ( not the sky is falling opinion )

03Panther said:

"Nother question. 6' is thrown around a lot... how long and how far do droplets from normal breathing/talking (not spittle talk) affect other people, by reasonable consensus? ( not the sky is falling opinion )

6' is used because that's been determined to be the approximate limit for "large droplets" in normal situations. Coughing/sneezing/etc can extend that range up to around 18 ft. Obviously there are a ton of factors that vary between the environment, air currents, relative humidity, and of course specifics about the people involved (some will expel more droplets than others).

This study is a month old now, but suggests that droplets can stay airborne for 8-14 minutes in stagnant air. So even if the droplets aren't moving in the air, you could theoretically move into them a couple of minutes after a conversation was had. Now whether that's enough exposure to actually cause an infection is the real question.

03Panther said:

In reply to aircooled :

Very good non angry explanation without the political/emotional/agenda loading that has been hard to separate from in this thread.

I think early on there were quite a few good science-only posts on the issue, but they can be difficult to go back and find.  Here is a good article:

https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2020/06/417906/still-confused-about-masks-heres-science-behind-how-face-masks-prevent 

The CDC page on the issue is also pretty good, it provides a ton of links to recent studies at the bottom you are welcome to read:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover-guidance.html

Related:

Goldman Sachs has done the math and a national mask mandate to halt the spread of coronavirus would have a big impact on the U.S. economy

In reply to ProDarwin :

Thanks for the info!

even earlier on, ya couldn’t separate good from bad due to the attitude. Statistics can say whatever someone wants, and if a question was asked, folks got ugly. 

Ive believed all along a cloth mask would help  protect the other person from a infected person, but aircooled explanation has be thinking it does help the wearer some as well. The few study’s provided here did not convince me due to not being similar to actual conditions. 

Good food for thought. 

The whole transmissibility thing is a super important thing that still seems to be a bit up in the air.  I would hope there is a lot of research going on about it.

As noted, the spittle thing clearly is not all of it.  There has to be some aerosolized component (I think that is pretty well accepted) because of how easily it is transmitted. The specifics around this are pretty vague though from what I have seen though.  How exactly contagious are people at various stages?  Is viral load an important multiplier of transmissibility (I would think so).  How much needs to be transmitted? (more seems to be worse of course)

Can you get it from someone, infected, but not showing symptoms by simply being near them when they are talking?  When they are just breathing? (obviously less likely)  That is almost certainly so (based on how fast it spreads).  Almost certainly made worse by close quarters indoors.

Regarding masks and aerosolized transmission.  Think of breathing on a piece of glass.  Results in fogging.  That is effectively aerosolization.  Put on a mask or bandana, breath heavy, mask will eventually get a bit moist.  I am sure some will get through, but not a lot.

I can't remember if I mentioned this, but my visit up to my parent's house in New England was scrapped for the time being. The quarantine measures in effect for travelers makes it unfeasable for a week long visit.

I'm a bit disappointed, but I figure it's better to be safe than sorry. We'll just stay home and look at visiting later in the year.

Update,

Background --

I saw Wayne's truck at the truck stop, stopped to talk to him and see if he needed a lift home.

Only his student was there, we talked briefly, 6 foot apart and I went home. Next day he tested positive for Covid.

That was why I posted about what my boss said, I have been to work and followed procedures.

Back to Wayne --

Their company put them on 10 day quarantine. Last night I sent a text to Wayne asking how he and David (the student driver) were doing.

Wayne and Kerry (his wife) are ok, weak but very functional. David is terrible, zero energy, hurts all over, barely eats, oxygen levels are 90% which is good and pulse is normal but he can't do anything but lay there.

So far Bev (aka Pyro) and I are well, we have shown no symptoms, she is self quarantined so she didn't go to the office at all this week, but there were no hard copy reports so she didn't need to.

Missouri just issued a new order with a mask mandate starting Monday due to the jump in cases.

I doubt this is like polio where we can eventually wipe it out. We (as a species) missed that chance. We as a nation quarantined to allow a ramp up to our medical system, now I think we are about to see if it can handle the cases as we slowly get infected as a nation.

In reply to Bent-Valve (FS) :

Hang in there, man.

Bent-Valve (FS) said:

I doubt this is like polio where we can eventually wipe it out. We (as a species) missed that chance. We as a nation quarantined to allow a ramp up to our medical system, now I think we are about to see if it can handle the cases as we slowly get infected as a nation.

If we find a vaccine that works we can wipe it out as that is how we wiped out polio.

Just curious, I'm wondering how much of this surge of cases we are seeing is due to wider availability of testing?

I've been staying away from this thread for awhile, as it was getting political. 

Still working from home, still required to wear a mask in public indoors here. 

I have seen the # of cases is rising...but the mortality seems to be leveling off.  This could be related to any number of things, such as increased testing, or more healthier people now getting the covid (and correspondingly more of them recovering from it).  It is possible the recent mass social gatherings have increased the spread of it...and the people in those gatherings have tended towards a younger demographic. 

I bristle when I hear people repeat, 'We may have to wear face coverings until there's a vaccine".  What if a vaccine is never developed? 

The most recent update from The COVID Tracking Project for the US as a whole.

% positive continues to climb from it's low back in early June.

Hospitalizations are on the rise.

It looks to me like the rate of change in cases is outpacing the rate of increased testing (slope of the line seems steeper, but not going to do the math to confirm), but it's not super clear.

Deaths continue to fall.

In reply to Recon1342 :

Here's total tests per day (quick bad graph from excel) data from here - https://covidtracking.com/data/us-daily

Here's new cases per day. 

Here's the positive test rate (all days with less than 100 tests basically at the beginning dropped since there are a lot of 100% days). 

volvoclearinghouse (Forum Supporter) said:

 

I have seen the # of cases is rising...but the mortality seems to be leveling off.  This could be related to any number of things, such as increased testing, or more healthier people now getting the covid (and correspondingly more of them recovering from it).  It is possible the recent mass social gatherings have increased the spread of it...and the people in those gatherings have tended towards a younger demographic. 

I did see an article investigating this, and the conclusion aligned with your theories.  On average (this whole thing is a game of averages) old people got the memo that they need to limit exposure, but the invincible-feeling young'uns are gathering at bars and restaurants and are more likely to be working in-person jobs as states reopen.  So younger healthier people are a larger proportion of new cases and they do tend to survive better than Grandma would which lowers the death rate.

Also deaths have always lagged test results by 3-4 weeks so....we could also be in for a big rise soon.

What is worrying me is we are going to start to see shutdowns again in some states due to hospitals getting overwhelmed. The economic bloodbath from that is going to be terrible.

93EXCivic said:

Bent-Valve (FS) said:

I doubt this is like polio where we can eventually wipe it out. We (as a species) missed that chance. We as a nation quarantined to allow a ramp up to our medical system, now I think we are about to see if it can handle the cases as we slowly get infected as a nation.

If we find a vaccine that works we can wipe it out as that is how we wiped out polio.

As noted previously, there are a number of viable candidate vaccines in the works, at least one is in phase 2 trials.  The Chinese seem confident enough in theirs (!) to inoculate their entire army.  It's almost certain at this point we will have something, it's the timing that is the issue, then of course the logistics of inoculating the entire country.  I believe one of the candidates is already being mass produced in anticipation of good test results.

In reply to aircooled :

If the studies about antibodies being short lived bear out on a wider scale, then a permanent vaccine isn't in the cards and COVID will be like the flu where you get a shot every so often to hopefully avoid it/soften the blow.

This is going to sound weird and morbid. I am not trying to make light of deaths. Completely opposite of that, I believe each life is incredibly precious and irreplaceable.

This this is almost more awful because of how it isn't universally terrible. The US has had 130K deaths. Something like 6x flu deaths. It took five months so far, and it's likely to bleed on for a year or more.

9/11 killed ~2,700 people and basically the entire country was crystallized and unified immediately.

Would we be better off if all 130K of the same people had died in the same week, if this virus was some unrealistically terrible thing? I think we would be. This is sort of a similar discussion like dropping an atomic bomb on Japan. Because it isn't all that bad for some people, and because it's incrementally worse in terms of contagiousness, and incrementally worse for your health than similar respiratory diseases, people don't care. They think it's made up. I can't believe how many people say stuff like "Do you know anyone who died from it? Then it must be fake", although I guess some of those same people say the same garbage about 9/11.

I'm venting. I'm not panicking. I'm still ticked off.

I'm not sure if that would've made the difference, but I'm sure we would have been closer.  The sad part is there have been a few days with 9/11 like death tolls, but by then we (royal we) had grown accustomed to such news/indifferent to it.

There are leaders in this country who could be helping to unify us but are not, and they are not unified with each other.  It sends a confusing message to the rest of the country, and I think its a big factor in why we are where we are :(

In reply to tuna55 :

9/11 was an act of war... not sure how that relates in any way to a virus. Except to the idiots that think the virus came to us as biological warfare. Of course an act of war like 9/11 galvanized the country. It SHOULD! Anybody remember America’s reaction to Pearl Harbor? (That didn’t have anything to do with a virus either)

Also don’t see where atomic warfare has to do with a virus?

Many of the posters are seeing things I just don’t. I’ve not heard one person say the Cory is fake, or a hoax, or not a problem. I’ve never personally seen a mask wearer be ugly to someone not. Again, I’m very blessed to be in an area not as hard affected. 

P. S. I do know a few folks that think the virus was planted, but even people that crazy don’t claim it’s not real! I also know folks that think since it’s not a huge problem in their area, they shouldn’t have to jump through the same hoops as someone in a highly dense population area... doesn’t mean they think it’s fake, just cause they are not yelling the sky is falling!

In reply to tuna55 :

I think events like 9/11 unify not because of the condensed timeframe but because there's a tangible enemy to fight, and the average person really didn't have to do anything to fight that enemy. This virus cannot be seen, it cannot be bombed (which is really what the US is good at), and it requires the average person to do more than send a few tax dollars and some "thoughts and prayers".

People who attended a party with a known outbreak refuse to cooperate with public health officials.  I' don't understand their behavior.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/07/ny-partygoers-get-subpoenas-after-stonewalling-covid-19-contact-tracers/

03Panther said:

In reply to tuna55 :

9/11 was an act of war... not sure how that relates in any way to a virus. Except to the idiots that think the virus came to us as biological warfare. Of course an act of war like 9/11 galvanized the country. It SHOULD! Anybody remember America’s reaction to Pearl Harbor? (That didn’t have anything to do with a virus either)

Also don’t see where atomic warfare has to do with a virus?

Many of the posters are seeing things I just don’t. I’ve not heard one person say the Cory is fake, or a hoax, or not a problem. I’ve never personally seen a mask wearer be ugly to someone not. Again, I’m very blessed to be in an area not as hard affected. 

P. S. I do know a few folks that think the virus was planted, but even people that crazy don’t claim it’s not real! I also know folks that think since it’s not a huge problem in their area, they shouldn’t have to jump through the same hoops as someone in a highly dense population area... doesn’t mean they think it’s fake, just cause they are not yelling the sky is falling!

People around me unfortunately have called this everything from an "underperforming flu" to a hoax design to hurt a certain political figure. And they also believe the deaths are largely inflated by hospitals claiming everything is a covid death, regardless of the cause of death.