New Study Indicates How Long Coronaviruses Can Survive on a Surface:
https://www.sciencealert.com/study-shows-just-how-long-coronaviruses-can-stick-around-on-a-surface
If the new coronavirus 2019-nCoV (now also called COVID-19 virus) is anything like its family members, a new study suggests it could survive on inanimate objects for well over a week.
In reply to aircooled :
Very timely, thanks. I have a new iPhone screen/display and some other phone parts delivered last week. They have been in quarantine in my garage and I'm giving them a few more days to cool off before I open and install. Crazy? Probably. But my dad is in his 90's and my son is 1 1/2. I don't mind taking chances, but this isn't one of them.
In reply to Eurotrash_Ranch :
That's something i hadnt considered, if it survives on Chinese products for the length of time it takes them to be shipped and opened by us and we can catch it? Jeez, the panic and hysteria?
I have a small something on its way from there now. One more reason to buy American!
Hope the conspiracy theorists have gone- thinking this was manufactured as some kind of weapon really only helps the Chinese Government at this point.
So far there have been no new updates about death toll or threat of the disease, so as far as we know proper treatment still means only around ~2% die from the virus.
As for waiting for parts to clean up... Eh, nothing too weird but viruses probably still could get through the plastic. But I doubt human hands have touched those parts in weeks anyway before shipping.
Sorry Girth. We believe in Science. Don't know what you believe in. Science says the numbers the Chinese are publishing are total BS. R^2 of 0.99. Yeah, nobody made those numbers up.
Anyway, y'all, CDC time:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is preparing for potential community spread of the novel coronavirus in the United States — which has 34 confirmed cases as of today — and is not ruling out the future need for school and business closures such as those implemented in China.
"This new virus represents a tremendous public health threat. We don't yet have a vaccine for this novel virus, nor do we have a medication to treat it specifically," Nancy Messonnier, MD, director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, CDC, said during a telephone news briefing today.
On February 20, the US Department of State issued a travel alert advising citizens to "reconsider travel by cruise ship to or within Asia," Ian Brownlee, principal deputy assistant secretary, Bureau of Consular Affairs, Department of State, said during the news briefing.
"While the US government has successfully evacuated hundreds of our citizens in recent weeks, such repatriation flights do not reflect our standard practice and should not be relied upon as an option for US citizens under potential risk for quarantine by local authorities," Brownlee said.
"We urge US citizens to evaluate the risks of choosing to remain in an area that may be subject to quarantine and to take all appropriate proactive measures."
Brownlee encouraged travelers to enroll their trips on the US Department of State's Smart Traveler Enrollment Program.
The CDC is working with the state department to provide "up-to-the-minute" information for travelers, Messonnier explained.
Earlier this week, 329 passengers from the Diamond Princess returned to the United States on two state department-chartered flights. Of those, 18 have tested positive for virus by the CDC and 10 were reported positive in Japan. Of the 18 cases here in the United States, 11 are being cared for at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, five are being cared for at Travis Air Force Base, and two are being cared for at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland.
These individuals are considered at high risk for infection and the CDC expects to see additional confirmed cases of COVID-19 among them.
Changes Made to Case TrackingThe CDC has changed the way it is tracking cases to separate infection in individuals who were repatriated to the United States from other cases.
"We are keeping track of cases resulting from repatriation efforts separately because we don't believe those numbers accurately represent the nature of what is happening in the community in the United States at this time," Messonnier explained.
Separating cases out in this way, there are 13 US cases versus 21 cases among individuals who were repatriated as of February 21, for a total of 34. Repatriated cases include 18 passengers from the Diamond Princess and three from the Wuhan repatriation flights.
Almost all remaining individuals who have returned to the United States from Wuhan, China, on state department-chartered flights and who have been quarantined at Department of Defense installations have completed their 14-day quarantine and are not at risk of spreading the virus to others, Messonnier said.
Many of these individuals are older than 60 years; therefore, the CDC is preparing for these patients to develop additional issues that will require hospitalization.
Several US citizens are currently hospitalized with COVID-19 in Japan and are seriously ill.
Community Spread: "Very Possible, Even Likely"Messonnier said the CDC believes their aggressive approach is effective.
The fact that the number of cases in the United States is still low is "good news given what we are seeing among some countries in Asia that are beginning to experience community spread," she said.
Community spread, when cases are detected in the community but the source of the infection is unknown, is being reported in Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. The United States issued Level 1 travel notices for Hong Kong and Japan earlier this week.
"We never expected that we would catch every single traveler with novel coronavirus returning from China, given the nature of this virus and how it's spreading," Messonnier said, emphasizing that community spread of the virus is not being seen in the United States yet but it is "very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen."
"The day may come" when the United States implements school and business closures such as those currently being enforced in Asia, Messonnier warned.
The CDC's goal continues to be slowing the spread of the virus in the United States, which will "buy us more time to prepare our communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread."
In reply to aircooled :
Back to the original post, we've reached level 7, nothing to see here folks, just a potential mass extinction event.
In reply to captdownshift :
It doesn't seem that lethal, though a pandemic seems more & more likely.
Avoiding the virus seems unlikely - if it truly did originate from animals, then there's really no telling how far it's spread through wildlife - let alone the asymptomatic transmission. So I don't see how prevention measures can do anything other than buy time. I suppose avoiding any personal travel wouldn't be a bad idea, and definitely avoiding any areas with known cases is probably smart, but I don't think stockpiling tyvek suits, N95 masks & latex gloves will help much long-term?
Survival of the infection seems largely a combination of an individual's own health & immune system, coupled with access to good healthcare. At least there are things like diet & exercise that can help somewhat with that. I see that Tamiflu is supposed to be available OTC "soon", but I've not seen any research related to its effectiveness against COVID-19.
I expect we'll see travel restrictions & quarantines within the US at some point, but how much of an impact will that have on food/gas/etc.? From the current numbers it doesn't seem likely that enough of the population will become sick enough to take down public utilities due to lack of staffing. So "shelter in place" seems like it may be the best option. My only(personal) concern with that is if the timing happens to correlate with a major hurricane heading towards here - will we be allowed to evacuate?
In reply to Pete Gossett :
In reply to captdownshift :
"It doesn't seem that lethal, though a pandemic seems more & more likely"
Even at a low 1-2% fatality rate for a pandemic, that's going end A LOT of lives.
I'm still waiting and hoping for it to mutate and fizzle out before that happens.
BTW for everyone, I work in the Nebraska area and with UNMC all the time. We've got WAY worse on the University tower thanks to the DOD.
In reply to Pete Gossett:
COVID-19 is off the genus of the SARS virus, Tamiflu is meant for Influenza A& B- it won't have much of an effect because SARS doesn't "bud" off of the infected cell, but anything above that and I'll have to talk to my lab friends.
As for prevention- wash your hands regularly, moisturize, get your flu shot and stay healthy. You're surprisingly hard to kill if you care about yourself.
In reply to captdownshift :
If you think this is a "mass extinction event", don't look up Hepatitis C. Or A. Or the implications of the Herpes Simplex viruses, or Toxoplasmosis.
In reply to Dr. Hess :
China? Lying? Say it ain't so!
The death toll i'm referencing to is people that aren't Chinese whom receive treatment we all know of. That's why I said "Proper treatment"- remember, China still has horrible public health problems like Gutter Oil, for instance! Add to their poor infrastructure and the allegations of how these "hospitals" are running and it's no wonder so many are dying. Heck, even you're own source says "Almost all remaining individuals who have returned to the United States from Wuhan, China [...] Many of these individuals are older than 60 years;" like... the yearly flu! You're source even says "Earlier this week, 329 passengers from the Diamond Princess returned to the United States on two state department-chartered flights. Of those, 18 have tested positive for virus by the CDC"- you crammed 329 people in one area and only 18 got the sickness? That's an 18% transmission rate- that's crap.
Ok, gutter oil is the most disgusting thing I've read about this month.
Reuters is reporting that the incubation period can be up to 28 days, not 14
Though with it living on dry surfaces, it's difficult to to know when the true exposure may have been.
Regarding my mass extinction event comment, it was poor wording on my part, pandemic is definitely accurate, and I feel that it's here at at that level. There's a very real possibility that a 2-6% loss of global population occurs within the next 24-36 months. Tragic on the individual level, probably better for the planet overall as a correction of balance and sustainability. From an economic standpoint, it'll be crippling globally. From a political standpoint, flounder fishing with be epic. Everyone is fascinated by evolution until it starts to happen to your own species.
In reply to captdownshift :
I wouldn't doubt that the potential is there- but that's just it. There's potential in lots of diseases to go pandemic even without suddenly gaining a new mutation. Yearly influenza is one, Hepatitis A/D and Water-borne Cholera are others too, among literally hundreds of others. We just don't see it or think about it because of the astonishing work modern infrastructure does in keeping disease from spreading. Even the most basic stuff in Africa and India is very effective at protecting humanity from the wee beasties, and that's not even getting to population density and sheer distance.
China doesn't have this. Their population density is insane; hundreds per square mile in cities, the opposite in Rural areas. Tap water isn't trusted, my above link shows food can't be either. There's no quality or standard anywhere As Aeon here writes about. Hell, watch someone get injured in the street and people won't stop for them- life is cheap there, and if you care for someone like that you're assuming responsibility of them to the state, meaning they go after you for bills first!
How could so many be dying from this? Man, how couldn't they. This is why I'm more worried about China's reaction to the disease than the disease itself; they clamped down and hope to let it run it's course instead of treating the core issues as why it appeared. They won't clean up their water. They won't focus on standards of food production. They won't attack their 1 in 4 smoking rate- It doesn't increase their GDP. Because of that, I have to view things like the incubation period and death rates with colored glasses because we are talking about a (to me) deeply unhealthy population. The fact that those CDC reports specifically state the deaths also had other co-morbidities (old age, chronic illnesses, ect.) and were mostly from pneumonia says that, so far the virus is just another weight on top of an unhealthy, weak and loaded bodily system, like many of the flu deaths I see here in the US.
I do love that last sentence of yours and the 'floundering' comment tho. Perfectly correct.
TIL: Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the CDC is Rod Rosenstein's sister
This thread is getting long and possibly taking new paths.
This is not an indictment of anyone just a general reminder...
I'm just gonna wander along, ordering chow mein and hot pepper chicken now and then.
We may all die, or not. Bekeley-all we can do about it.
John Welsh said:This thread is getting long and possibly taking new paths.
This is not an indictment of anyone just a general reminder...
Yeah, a general reminder that Wally is one sexy motherberkeleyer!
In reply to Streetwiseguy :
Chinese food is the only type of ethnic food that I can think of that places don't tout as being authentic. You never hear a place say, Chinese food so authentic that you'll need to be quarantined afterwards, or anything along those lines.
In reply to captdownshift :
"So authentic, you can still hear the Meow." One got busted here in town not long ago for having cats in the freezer. They said they were not for sale, only for their own consumption or something like that. Still, I think the health department shut the whole place down. No mention of COVID-19, so all good.
i Love authentic Chinese food and dislike the Americanized version where everything is slathered in thick sweet sauce. I ate some beetles last time I was in China. And duck tongue.
I also like authentic Japanese food. Whale bacon is good.
In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :
Authentic Chinese food is like authentic Indian food or American for that matter. There's so many different regions with such different methods of cooking it's hard to say if you truly like it or not.
Italy: 3 deaths, 152 infected, reportedly at least one doctor infected, train traffic between Austria and Italy halted: https://www.krone.at/2103827
Codogno, Italy hospital facing Coronavirus crisis: https://www.krone.at/2103827
ALSO: Possibly 50K currently quarantined in Northern Italy, doctor in Milan allegedly tests positive for Virus.
Something I normally dont do is read the financial pages of the various news sites I like, but I wandered through this morning. Fair amount of people seem to be saying that if China doesn't get the virus under control by the end of the first quarter that upwards of 80% of the small businesses and about 25% of their medium sized businesses wont make it.
All the quarantine precautions are keeping people inside and away from salesmen and stores.
Stampie said:In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :
Authentic Chinese food is like authentic Indian food or American for that matter. There's so many different regions with such different methods of cooking it's hard to say if you truly like it or not.
For that matter, American "fake" Chinese food seems to have taken on a life of its own, with its own set of relatively standard dishes that you can find coast to coast. It would be sad to see this killed off in the name of authenticity - you're not going to convince me that moo goo gai pan is better without the snow peas and water chestnuts.
This is awesome, only at GRM do you check in on a global epidemic thread and read about water chesnuts and snow peas
Pretty sure that CNN and MSNBC were running a report that this whole "EOTWAWKI Cornoa Beer Virus" thing was really just a mild allergic reaction to water chesnuts and snow peas, and any other reporting was "conspiracy theory promoted by TEH RUSSIANS."
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