Audi allegedly ending production of internal combustion cars by 2026

Colin
By Colin Wood
Jun 19, 2021 | Audi, Electric Cars

Photograph Courtesy Audi

According to Reuters, a report from German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung says that Audi CEO Markus Duesmann made comments to upper officials in the carmaker’s ranks that it will end production of cars with internal combustion engines by 2026—including hybrid models—and instead switch to an all-electric lineup.

[The new Audi e-tron GT | Faster than a Porsche Taycan?]

Do you think higher-end brands like Audi will have an easier time only selling electric cars in the future (as opposed to “normal” carmakers like Toyota or Chevrolet)? Or does being part of a large conglomerate like VW Group work as a suitable safety net in case such a plan falls through?

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infinitenexus
infinitenexus GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/18/21 11:46 a.m.

1. That Audi is gorgeous.

2. I think higher-end brands such as that will definitely have an easier time selling these cars.  People that can afford a $140K car often also have houses and can have the garage wired for the proper voltage to charge (if it isn't already).  People like me that can afford a 20K car will be going for an off-lease Ford Maverick instead.  People in my income bracket also often live in apartments and have no real manner to charge electric cars (we run an extension cord out of our bedroom window to charge our plug in Prius).  Until chargers are more prevalent, it'll be more difficult for folks like me to own and charge an EV.  

3. I think in the next 5 years we're going to see a lot of new EVs coming out.  Perhaps we'll see some more affordable ones?  I've read that Elon Musk has commented several times that he'd like to do a cheaper Tesla, set below the model 3.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 12:02 p.m.

Battery prices are dropping, volumes are going up. EVs are going to drop in price.

EV2go is aiming at the "can't charge at home" demographic. On-street charging is already a thing, they're also addressing places you'd be going anyway like malls and movie theaters (remember those?). It'll take a while to get that infrastructure built up but of course it'll take a while for the fleet to change to EV even if not a single ICE car is sold after today.

GIRTHQUAKE
GIRTHQUAKE Dork
6/18/21 12:31 p.m.

Man Audi is pulling all the stops in looks. It's not shocking all the luxury makers are going electric.

In reply to infinitenexus :

Yeah supposedly there's a model 2 in the works- a small hatch that he claims will be less than ~$25K but that depends on the 4680 cell.

"Cheapening" EVs is going to be very interesting in the coming years, since so much revolves around how you build cells, what chemistries you use and how you cool them.

Streetwiseguy
Streetwiseguy MegaDork
6/18/21 12:50 p.m.

There has to be a "but" or an "except in this case" built in there somehow.  It just seems like corporate suicide to me.

MadScientistMatt
MadScientistMatt UltimaDork
6/18/21 1:06 p.m.

Remind me to check in 2028 if this happened.

dean1484
dean1484 GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 1:08 p.m.

Audi I can see. Now if VW did this that would be a game changer and most likely kill them as a brand.

I do a ton of work for housing authority and apartment complex's and the like.  I also do lots of work in the urban areas of the city of Boston where the "regular" folks live.  Like Dorchester or Roxbury MA.  There is no way they can put the infrastructure in place in these locations to alow for electric cars.  It will just not work.  

This is a typical street: (I am actually working on a building one block over just like these)

If they do install chargers when the local's figuar out that there is copper in the cables of the chargers those will be stolen.   

Electric cars are only going to work for the upper-middle class.  For those "nice" sleepy towns west of Boston where the median income is over 100K.  

Instead of pounding forward with this stuff more needs to be done to facilitate better safer and affordable transportation for the urban areas around citys.   You talk electric vehicles to people in these locations and they think you are a complete idiot and they get aggravated as they feel like they re getting left behind.  Billions in electric car development for the afluent privileged few being touted as the game changer  for all when in fact it really will only work for a very specific segment of the population.   I am not a huge fan of linkage type funding but I think that for every dollar that is given by the state and feds to people as rebates for there electric car purchase an equal amount needs to be invested in public transportation.

TGMF
TGMF HalfDork
6/18/21 1:09 p.m.

That seems like a really really fast change over.  I doubt they have the will to hit that. 

 

Karacticus
Karacticus GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/18/21 1:27 p.m.

I'll admit to being intrigued enough by the looks of the Taycan (especially the Cross Turismo) and the Audi GT that I've been considering them as (much, much, much) more practical replacements for the i8.
 

They are heavy though.  I'd seen the numbers, but on viewing some assembly videos on YouTube where the massive size of the brakes is apparent, I just don't know if I'm ready to accept a "sporty"  5,000 pound vehicle. 

Appleseed
Appleseed MegaDork
6/18/21 1:33 p.m.

captdownshift (Forum Supporter)
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
6/18/21 2:42 p.m.

I'm going to miss the warm amber glow of an Audi CEL. Coolant temperature sensor and coil pack manufacturers are going to be in trouble. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 3:12 p.m.

In reply to captdownshift (Forum Supporter) :

You are underestimating the ability of German engineers to create complexity out of simplicity. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 3:15 p.m.
Karacticus said:

I'll admit to being intrigued enough by the looks of the Taycan (especially the Cross Turismo) and the Audi GT that I've been considering them as (much, much, much) more practical replacements for the i8.
 

They are heavy though.  I'd seen the numbers, but on viewing some assembly videos on YouTube where the massive size of the brakes is apparent, I just don't know if I'm ready to accept a "sporty"  5,000 pound vehicle. 

EV brakes are a bit of a weird thing. Regen means that the brakes actually get very little use in normal driving. But the mass of the vehicle and (more importantly) the sheer acceleration capability means that when they work the brakes hard, they work the brakes REALLY hard. I suspect Audi has some sort of internal metric for brake capacity that is tied to acceleration.

Demands on the brakes scale lineararily with vehicle mass but with the square of the velocity change, so fast is more of a problem than heavy.

dherr (Forum Supporter)
dherr (Forum Supporter) Dork
6/18/21 3:17 p.m.

I agree that these new electric cars are cool, super fast and futuristic. But I have still not had anyone intelligently answer the question of where all the clean electricity comes from for all these electric cars? If manufacturer's such as Audi switch over by 2026, that may work for their expensive limited sales (186,620 in 2020) sitting in their private garages with access to fast chargers but how does this scale to much larger manufacturers? There will need to be a ton of electric power plants built in the coming years, we are not going to power these new cars on windmills and solar alone.  Certainly the infrastructure to support all this new electric demand does not currently exist in a form that would support a quick transition from gas to electric. From a pure energy in - energy out point of view, all the energy required to move a car from point A to point B at a given speed is the same whether the vehicle is electric or gas powered. So the electric grid will need to accommodate the energy currently used to power the millions of cars and trucks on the road driven daily.  So, while the rush to an all electric car world is in full swing with many manufacturers, no one seems to be talking about where the electricity comes from?

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 3:41 p.m.

People are talking about that, yes. It's pretty easy to find articles addressing it, such as this one from Autoweek.

Keep in mind that EVs tend to charge at times when the grid is underutilized. Owners are incentivized to do this by peak surcharges, you simply tell your car to charge between X and Y times to minimize your electric bill and your utility says "thank you!". They can even be used to smooth out demand peaks if they are connected to the grid, so they can actually take a load off the grid. Power plants are happiest when they're putting out nice consistent levels. So of all the problems facing EVs, that's actually one of the smaller ones.

Keep in mind that power generation is not x MW per day, it's up to x MW at any given time. Using power at night does not affect the amount of power available during the day.

How to pay for road infrastructure, that's a lot harder because it's political instead of technical.

dherr (Forum Supporter)
dherr (Forum Supporter) Dork
6/18/21 3:55 p.m.

Well, even if you believe that the current grid can handle an all electric car conversion (which I don't believe), the current grid is certainly not powered by clean energy. According to the EIA, 60% of electrical production is from fossil fuels, 20% is nuclear and the remaining 20% is wind/hydro/solar. Personally, I wish that the transition would be slower by the manufacturers, but now that I work from home and will probably for the rest of my working life, guess I won't be in the market for a new electric car anyway. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 4:00 p.m.

Why would the current grid have to handle it? An all electric car fleet isn't going to happen overnight - see the recent thread on the fact that the average age of the US fleet is 12 years. So it's not today's grid that we need to worry about, it's the grid a few decades down the road. And good news, we have a few decades to build that grid gradually.

Electrical energy production doesn't have to 100% clean to be better than a quarter billion mobile point sources that are always in transitional states. It's a lot easier to clean up a fossil fuel plant that runs at a steady state than all the cars it could potentially fuel.

BoxheadTim
BoxheadTim GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/18/21 4:09 p.m.

Right, based on the article Colin posted, some stuff got lost in translation. Here's a link to what I think might be the original article in German.

What that article states - at least when I skimmed over it - is that from about the middle of this decade, the A3 and A4 won't be available anymore in their current from (which seems to be taken as "no diesel or gas engined variants"), and that in about a decade, one would only be able to buy battery electric cars from Audi.

They author also appears to speculate that part of the driver behind this might be to get over the reputational damage from Dieselgate.

infinitenexus
infinitenexus GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/18/21 4:15 p.m.

Since we're talking about luxury brands and EVs, I'm curious when Porsche will switch the 911 over to electric.  I know it'll happen at some point, but I believe there will be a huge outcry, even though the car will likely be a performance monster.  So much of the 911 magic is based on that flat 6.  

Although then again, Porsche purists screamed when Porsche came out with a *gasp* SUV, and then it became their top-selling vehicle.  So we'll see.

 

I've also read that Lamborghini is planning on going fully electric soon.

captdownshift (Forum Supporter)
captdownshift (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
6/18/21 4:48 p.m.

In reply to infinitenexus :

the 911 won't until WEC/IMSA and all the various GT/GTE/GTS/GTSE etc. classes change the rules to either require electric or that going electric provides a competitive advantage within them. 

Karacticus
Karacticus GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/18/21 5:08 p.m.

Some screen captures of Taycan and Etron GT brakes.  

slowbird
slowbird UltraDork
6/18/21 7:03 p.m.

I wonder how the gas station industry will change in the next two decades. Will they gradually add a few electric charging stations, while also turning their "convenience store" model into a "well you gotta wait at least 15 minutes for a charge so let's make this a fast food restaurant as well" model? How long would it be until they are just charging stations? Will they stubbornly cling to only offering gasoline to the remaining cars that need it? Obviously that will be okay for a while, but hypothetically not forever. Will they have to start offering refueling options for hydrogen or other alternative fuel cars?

Karacticus
Karacticus GRM+ Memberand Dork
6/18/21 7:21 p.m.

In reply to slowbird :

If they are like some of the gas stations around here, they may want to maintain some nominal status of continuing to operate as gas stations to avoid needing to remove the tanks and mitigate any accumulated contamination. 

docwyte
docwyte PowerDork
6/19/21 9:02 a.m.

I think this is an incredibly bold move.  Audi sells plenty of cars that are around $50k, not $140k.  The infrastructure and battery charge times still don't exist to truly make electric cars a replacement for ICE cars.  (I know you disagree with me Keith!)

The whole "green" thing is a complete boondoogle for me.  The electric cars are far dirtier to make, requiring heavy metals, they're far dirtier to scrap and they still ultimately get their juice from fossil fuels...

tester (Forum Supporter)
tester (Forum Supporter) Reader
6/19/21 9:43 a.m.

The number one thing that takes out high end Euro cars is expensive, hard to trouble shoot electronics. The same guys who can't make a HVAC controller or electric window regulator live past warranty are going to be making all electric drive trains. Ha ha ha ha ha ha ..... Seriously, this is comedy gold! 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/19/21 10:27 a.m.

In reply to docwyte :

About the scrapping - the battery packs are highly recyclable, which makes them both cleaner to scrap and to build once we start having to scrap a few. 

And you can't compare power generation and emissions of mobile ICE to that of a full scale power plant. About the only thing that they have in common is "burns stuff that was underground". 

dean1484
dean1484 GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/19/21 10:37 a.m.

So is Audi going to still have the service position for the front of the car?  You know for nostalgic reasons?  laugh

marknoakes
marknoakes New Reader
6/19/21 11:42 a.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Yes it will take a while since there are about 290 million vehicles on the road in the US with a very small percentage of them EV and new vehicle sales of about 17+ million per year, and the average age of vehicles on the road is 12 years with many much older than that.

noddaz
noddaz GRM+ Memberand UberDork
6/19/21 12:35 p.m.

A few days ago, a story about the beginning of the modern race engine in 1912.

And today a story about perhaps the end of that type of engine.

Big oil will not give up easy.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter)
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/19/21 1:11 p.m.

I'm just glad to see Squirrely Dan make an appearance

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/19/21 1:54 p.m.
infinitenexus said:

1. That Audi is gorgeous.

2. I think higher-end brands such as that will definitely have an easier time selling these cars.  People that can afford a $140K car often also have houses and can have the garage wired for the proper voltage to charge (if it isn't already).  People like me that can afford a 20K car will be going for an off-lease Ford Maverick instead.  People in my income bracket also often live in apartments and have no real manner to charge electric cars (we run an extension cord out of our bedroom window to charge our plug in Prius).  Until chargers are more prevalent, it'll be more difficult for folks like me to own and charge an EV.  

3. I think in the next 5 years we're going to see a lot of new EVs coming out.  Perhaps we'll see some more affordable ones?  I've read that Elon Musk has commented several times that he'd like to do a cheaper Tesla, set below the model 3.

Target has Tesla Chargers already in their parking lot. I'm seeing more and more charging stations at malls and shopping centers. 
   Here in Minnesota it's fairly  common for light poles in parking lots to have 110 volt outlets for  winter  plug ins.  Both at work places. Motels/ hotels,  and shopping places. 
 Yeh it's a slow charge but usually free. 

Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter)
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
6/19/21 1:56 p.m.
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) said:

I'm just glad to see Squirrely Dan make an appearance

And that's what I appreciates about you.

BruceK
BruceK
6/19/21 7:16 p.m.

Adding one electric car to an individual household DOUBLES the annual current draw.  Most homes with cars own slightly more than 2.  That means TRIPLING our electrical capacity to juice an all-EV fleet - that will not happen anytime soon, and arguably not ever.  And if commercial vehicles were to follow suit, the problem worsens.  Now, add into the equation the fact that modern IC cars are incredibly durable, with an an average service life of 12 years, and 15 possible in the near term.  Add into the equation the supply/demand effect of even a 10% electric fleet, which will reduce the price of gasoline and keep it low for just about ever.  Add into the equation the non-recycleability of electric car batteries (IC's are fully 80% recycled at this time);  The need to scarify 50,000 pounds of virgin earth to acquire the rare earths required to build JUST ONE CAR BATTERY;  The fact that car battery fires cannot be extinguished, and burn with stupendous heat (bye-bye, home and family!);  The fact that EV's are mediocre sellers even with NO fuel tax and an average of $12,000 in tax credits per car, and much more.  The equation yields this solution:  Our fleet will remain blended, and will grow to encompass technologies we haven't yet discovered, for decades and generations to come.  So don't worry about fuel for that beloved '57 Chevy - gas will be around for your kid's kid's kids to enjoy!

rslifkin
rslifkin UberDork
6/19/21 7:25 p.m.

In reply to BruceK :

Keep in mind, efficiency improvements in other places (lower power computers, fridges, A/C units, etc.) have reduced power demand over time.  So while an electric car is a large increase in power draw, there's also some extra capacity in the system from other improvements to partially offset the impacts on the power grid, etc. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/19/21 7:29 p.m.

Bruce, can you back up any of those statements with data? The current draw increase for example, seems a little implausible. And are you talking peak draw or average?

And how are you deciding that the batteries are non-recyclable? That is at odds with what I've read. 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/19/21 9:50 p.m.
Streetwiseguy said:

There has to be a "but" or an "except in this case" built in there somehow.  It just seems like corporate suicide to me.

Corporations only sell what people want to buy.  If there is a 12 year turn around on ICE cars  and EV's are both a growing market and in many European countries a requirement  Audi and others are only going to capitalize on a newly blooming market. 
   Ford is following the lead of GM  to EV's.  but they are doing it sooner and with Vehicles that are a bigger share of the market. 

 Roughly 100 years ago ICE was replacing horses.  So EV's are replacing ICE's  

   With regard gasoline  getting oil is getting harder and more expensive. It's no longer a case of some pipe and a wooden tower . Now it's in the frozen attic or deep water.  We will have gas for the next 20-30 years but it will become more and more expensive. Places like Saudi Arabia, Russia,  etc already see the end of demand and want to sell what they've got while the demand is still there.  

 

ZOO (Forum Supporter)
ZOO (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
6/20/21 4:53 a.m.

I have two friends with Model 3s, and no home charging infrasructure.  They've clearly decided that the car and what it offers negates the "barriers" to charging.

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/20/21 8:40 a.m.
dean1484 said:

Audi I can see. Now if VW did this that would be a game changer and most likely kill them as a brand.

I do a ton of work for housing authority and apartment complex's and the like.  I also do lots of work in the urban areas of the city of Boston where the "regular" folks live.  Like Dorchester or Roxbury MA.  There is no way they can put the infrastructure in place in these locations to alow for electric cars.  It will just not work.  

This is a typical street: (I am actually working on a building one block over just like these)

If they do install chargers when the local's figuar out that there is copper in the cables of the chargers those will be stolen.   

Electric cars are only going to work for the upper-middle class.  For those "nice" sleepy towns west of Boston where the median income is over 100K.  

Instead of pounding forward with this stuff more needs to be done to facilitate better safer and affordable transportation for the urban areas around citys.   You talk electric vehicles to people in these locations and they think you are a complete idiot and they get aggravated as they feel like they re getting left behind.  Billions in electric car development for the afluent privileged few being touted as the game changer  for all when in fact it really will only work for a very specific segment of the population.   I am not a huge fan of linkage type funding but I think that for every dollar that is given by the state and feds to people as rebates for there electric car purchase an equal amount needs to be invested in public transportation.

 What is the average commute of an Urban worker?  That's all that is really required.  Hence  long range  and battery intensive cars with their attending costs will be lower. 
   Next, corporations are finding that work from home is 23% cheaper and up to 42% more productive.  So in the next decade you will start to see office buildings converted to apartments.  And yes they will solve charging issues. 
     Stealing copper wire?  Seriously?  Live 440 volt?   Sounds like an effective way to prove Darwin's theory. Since they use copper wire in street lights, traffic lights, modern parking meters, etc. I doubt it will be much of a problem.  Especially  since the revenue to maintain streets will come from those charging stations.   
 

If you had been around the last time there was a serious change in transportation you would have seen the horse yield to the ICE's.  The benefits like lack of horse poop and urine  made oil grease and gas seem like a great deal.  Now we're going away from the mess of oil based transportation.  
    It started with the wealthier families and because  of the status and ease  of cars over horses, the horse lost and ICE won. 
History does repeat itself.  
 

dean1484
dean1484 GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/20/21 8:56 a.m.

I don't think the cables are live until the car and the charger conduct a "handshake".  And trust me yes they will find a way to do it.  Thieves are amazingly resourceful.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/20/21 9:34 a.m.

I think it's significant to remember that at the dawn of the age of ICE vehicles, the infrastructure for fuel distribution did not exist. 
 

There were no gas stations, pipelines, refineries, etc. Gasoline was sold by the gallon at local corner pharmacies. 
 

We don't build infrastructure first. We build consumer desire first and develop markets. Industry then develops infrastructure over time. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/20/21 11:16 a.m.

Also...

While gasoline distribution chains were being developed, so were highway systems. There were no roads when ICE cars first came to market.

Asphalt is a petroleum product. Petroleum industry benefited from the growth of ICE engines AND from the growth and development of the highway system. 
 

There is no comparable parallel with electric cars. You can't build a road out of electricity. 
 

So we will always need petroleum, even with ICE vehicles. If for no other reason, we will need it to build roads.  Home heating oil, heavy industry, diesel engines, rails, ships, etc, etc, etc. There are a ton of things we will need petroleum for for a very long extended period of time. It's not going away.

I admire the bold move on the part of Audi. We shall see...

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/20/21 11:24 a.m.
dean1484 said:

I don't think the cables are live until the car and the charger conduct a "handshake".  And trust me yes they will find a way to do it.  Thieves are amazingly resourceful.

There has to be live voltage to start the charging process. You don't insert your credit card and have some little gnome chisel your numbers and then flip a switch. 
 

We aren't having a lot of trouble keeping street lights working, stop lights working.  Etc.  City roads are different from abandoned buildings.  A few arrests for $12 worth of copper it takes a fair amount of work to get will have the criminal set looking for easier targets  

With camera's it's easy to keep an eye on things without the expense of  patrols etc.  ATM's have been broken into  but video records caused most of those to be caught. The city can buy camera's pretty cheap and with oncoming AI not even need a human to monitor.   

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/20/21 11:25 a.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

I think it's significant to remember that at the dawn of the age of ICE vehicles, the infrastructure for fuel distribution did not exist. 
 

There were no gas stations, pipelines, refineries, etc. Gasoline was sold by the gallon at local corner pharmacies. 
 

We don't build infrastructure first. We build consumer desire first and develop markets. Industry then develops infrastructure over time. 

Well said!  

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/20/21 11:34 a.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

Also...

While gasoline distribution chains were being developed, so were highway systems. There were no roads when ICE cars first came to market.

Asphalt is a petroleum product. Petroleum industry benefited from the growth of ICE engines AND from the growth and development of the highway system. 
 

There is no comparable parallel with electric cars. You can't build a road out of electricity. 
 

So we will always need petroleum, even with ICE vehicles. If for no other reason, we will need it to build roads.  Home heating oil, heavy industry, diesel engines, rails, ships, etc, etc, etc. There are a ton of things we will need petroleum for for a very long extended period of time. It's not going away.

I admire the bold move on the part of Audi. We shall see...

Yes Petroleum isn't going away, we're just using up the easily found stuff. The deep Ocean, Arctic, small pools that cost more to develop  than is recovered are what we have to look forward to. That will drive up costs where other alternatives get another look.  
    They are already recycling plastic to make roads in Europe. And concrete isn't a petroleum product. 
Yes mining and construction is mostly done with diesel but it's only a matter of time before that equipment is electrified. 
  With most construction equipment the weight of batteries  is a good thing rather than a problem to work around.  

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/20/21 12:12 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 9:40 a.m.

I believe the mining industry is starting to use EVs because it's a whole lot easier to not suffocate with them. And mines definitely have access to power. 

I think saying that "most" heavy construction does not have access to power is picturing a very specific job, I'm having trouble thinking of what it is, at least in the US. There are certainly a bunch of pieces of construction equipment that could electrify easily, such as rollers/compactors. Others will need the sheer amount of energy that's best served by ICE. It won't be all or nothing, it'll be a gradual change as new tech and new techniques develop. And it will likely never be a complete change. But there was a time when steam ruled, too.

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 10:00 a.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.

I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John  Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career. 
   One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!   
        Until the power is there generators are there.  Sometimes massive Standby generators,  bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals. 
 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 10:03 a.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Keith,  remember trains are electrified. Getting miles of rail cars with hundreds of tons of weight rolling is a function of electric motors.    

Tom1200
Tom1200 SuperDork
6/21/21 11:37 a.m.

Mark me in the highly skeptical column on this; that's only 4 1/2 years away. For me this is total PR driven.

While a natural gas power plant (charging station) burns cleaner than coal, my understanding is it's not hugely cleaner than gasoline. I also don't know it's energy content I.E. do you need to burn more natural gas to get the equivalent amount of energy (gasoline vs natrual gas)?  Also EVs are heavier and as such require more energy to move them.

The other component is the manufacturing of new vehicles creates emissions. If we simple drove our cars for 15 years versus say 12 years, how much would that lower emissions? 

2036 or 2046 maybe but I just don't see 2026 happening.

BoxheadTim
BoxheadTim GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 11:51 a.m.

In reply to Tom1200 :

I agree that it feels PR driven, even after reading the article I think this was based on. That said, to me this still makes a certain amount of sense - a large market in Europe for VW/Audi was for Diesel powered vehicles, and between screwing themselves with Dieselgate and a general policy move away from encouraging diesels, they have to do something to stay relevant. Going electric for their volume models makes sense from that perspective.

VW already has a bunch of electric vehicles (for example the ID.3 and ID.4), and I think it would make sense to have the smaller sibling (Audi) that caters to a slightly less price sensitive crowd try to adapt that technology for use in other cars.

As to, would we make better use of resources if we kept cars on the road longer, I think that has been looked at and it does make a fairly noticeable difference. One doesn't rule out the other, though.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 12:27 p.m.
frenchyd said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Keith,  remember trains are electrified. Getting miles of rail cars with hundreds of tons of weight rolling is a function of electric motors.    

Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator. 

When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 12:32 p.m.
Tom1200 said:

Mark me in the highly skeptical column on this; that's only 4 1/2 years away. For me this is total PR driven.

While a natural gas power plant (charging station) burns cleaner than coal, my understanding is it's not hugely cleaner than gasoline. I also don't know it's energy content I.E. do you need to burn more natural gas to get the equivalent amount of energy (gasoline vs natrual gas)?  Also EVs are heavier and as such require more energy to move them.

The other component is the manufacturing of new vehicles creates emissions. If we simple drove our cars for 15 years versus say 12 years, how much would that lower emissions? 

2036 or 2046 maybe but I just don't see 2026 happening.

Don't forget that a generating plant can be running at or near optimal all the time. Cars are always in transition, and I'm sure Alfa can tell us that that's where things are difficult. So even if under perfect conditions NG is no cleaner than gasoline, you rarely get perfect conditions in a vehicle from an emissions standpoint.

I don't think anyone here is suggesting the gasoline fleet get scrapped. But the fleet will turn over eventually.

About the timeline: I don't think I've come across an actual Audi press release. But a bunch of news articles say that they won't release any new ICE vehicles after 2026. That's a very different story from will not SELL any new ICE vehicles after 2026 and is a far more plausible timeline.

goingnowherefast
goingnowherefast Reader
6/21/21 12:43 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator. 

When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.

To play devils advocate, by the numbers Li-ion batteries aren't recycled much in the US. In fact, the rate of Li-ion batteries recycled is only 5% in the states (even less in most places around the world). As it stands it's simply too complex and expensive to justify recycling, and that problem is only getting worse as the price of new Li-ion battery packs continue to fall. (Source: https://cen.acs.org/materials/energy-storage/time-serious-recycling-lithium/97/i28). They are highly recyclable in theory, true, but in reality that isn't economically viable (yet). 

Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter)
Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) SuperDork
6/21/21 12:49 p.m.

When I hear (see) people say "OMG but THE GRID!!" doesn't really understand how it works, and how it will work in the future. We have low/negative power pricing in areas of high solar generation (now) and thing will continue to go in that direction. Charge during that time, or during the overnight low cost/low demand hours and it's a complete non issue. There may be few that charge at peak, but it won't be en-masse. 

2026 seems ambitious, but at the prices most of these cars bring the infrastructure (at home) is already there. The infrastructure "on road" is getting much better  and fast.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 1:14 p.m.
goingnowherefast said:
Keith Tanner said:

Sorta. The majority of them in the US are basically hybrids with on-board generators and those that aren't are on tethers. One nice thing about trains is that their demands are fairly consistent once running, which makes them well-suited to running a generator. 

When you're expending enormous amounts of energy rapidly and for a long period without a tether, ICE still has an advantage. I'm thinking of stuff like scrapers.

To play devils advocate, by the numbers Li-ion batteries aren't recycled much in the US. In fact, the rate of Li-ion batteries recycled is only 5% in the states (even less in most places around the world). As it stands it's simply too complex and expensive to justify recycling, and that problem is only getting worse as the price of new Li-ion battery packs continue to fall. (Source: https://cen.acs.org/materials/energy-storage/time-serious-recycling-lithium/97/i28). They are highly recyclable in theory, true, but in reality that isn't economically viable (yet). 

I suspect a big part of that is the fact that most Li-ion batteries are used in short-lived consumer products like phones and people can't be bothered. It's a lot easier to manage recycling when there's a big fat slab of battery in a car, because you don't stick a car in your junk drawer and forget about it. Well, mostly you don't :)

That article is a couple of years old. In more recent news, Tesla's previous CTO is behind a big recycling effort.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/former-tesla-exec-inks-new-recycling-deal-as-battery-costs-soar-.html 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 1:20 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Dozers (scrapers? ) are basically tanks with blades instead of guns.  They quickly get into high torque applications as earth is moved.  Weight is a needed thing for them to operate so instead of Iron ballast the ballast can be batteries. 
 It's rare that the needed torque curve of the diesel matches the requirements of the dozer so oversized engines are used to ensure adequate operation at low RPM. Something an electric motor would have an advantage at. 
   Now earth movers have also been called scrapers as have Road  Graders.  
     In the loading phase of earth Movers low RPM torque is important. While the unloading phase of Earth Movers  requires torque at higher RPM. 
Road Graders prime requirement is traction, not speed or torque.   
     I should mention that I don't have an engineering degree. My comments are based on marketing to potential customers. 
    

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 1:22 p.m.
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.

I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John  Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career. 
   One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!   
        Until the power is there generators are there.  Sometimes massive Standby generators,  bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals. 
 

Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine. 
 

We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.

There is no way a charger will run off temporary power. 

My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week.  It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.  

We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.

Are there exceptions?  Absolutely. Can it be done?  Sure.

Is it typical?  Nope.

Tom1200
Tom1200 SuperDork
6/21/21 1:25 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

I caught the distinction, hence my comment about this being PR driven

The operative word is "release". If say, the 2026 Q7 is still selling well in 2030 it would continue. If all they've done is simply upgrades to the vehicle (rather than all new design) then they could in fact claim it's not a new "release"............however disingenuous that may or may not be.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 1:31 p.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.

I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John  Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career. 
   One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!   
        Until the power is there generators are there.  Sometimes massive Standby generators,  bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals. 
 

Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine. 
 

We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.

There is no way a charger will run off temporary power. 

My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week.  It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.  

We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.

Are there exceptions?  Absolutely. Can it be done?  Sure.

Is it typical?  Nope.

That's not a technical problem, though. That's just a matter of the utilities running more robust power earlier. It can be done if necessary.

Frenchy, you know more about big cats than I do. But around here, a scraper is a high speed dirt planer :) It's my understanding that they basically ram the dirt in and there's no ballast I'm aware of. I'm not thinking that you couldn't do the job once on batteries, but the sheer amount of energy involved means there would have to be a LOT of battery and it would need an appropriate charging infrastructure. Beasts like this are going to be the most difficult ones to electrify. I'd expect to see things like rollers get changed over first, as they can certainly use the weight and they're not expending so much power.

Caterpillar calls these scrapers too ;) This thing has over 1000 hp and it's still expected that you'll occasionally have to give it a push.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 1:39 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

You are theoretically correct. But in practice, the medium sized site contractors who do the majority of commercial projects don't have the clout to get the power companies to act that far in advance, and the buildings that will house the panels and termination points don't even exist yet. 
 

Keith, I realize your wife has a lot of experience in larger scale heavy construction, but most commercial projects involve $1.5 million or so in total. That's not enough to get utility companies to install temporary power sub stations.

It becomes a technical problem. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 1:45 p.m.

I don't consider clout to be a technical problem. We know how to do it. There might be a bunch of business or political reasons why it's not done, but that doesn't require any new technology. A technical problem is trying to figure out how to charge an enoooooormous battery without it catching on fire or browning out the state. Getting the utilities to run wires? Not technical, just paperwork. And it's the sort of thing that will gradually change. I do know that utility providers are an enormous pain in the ass.

Site trailers are a thing even on small jobs. What about a 20' shipping container with all the panels and support structure needed? Heck, it could contain a bunch of chargers. Drop it at the site, hook it up, take it away when it's done. That's not a hard thing to put together, technically.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 1:53 p.m.

There is also a technical problem created by the chain of responsibility...

I am a general contractor. I build commercial and industrial spaces. 
 

I don't own the permanent electric system. Generally, we open 2 separate accounts, get the temporary installed quickly in our name,  and then act as agents for the owner to facilitate the ultimate installation of permanent power. The OWNER owns the permanent power system, and I "own" only the temporary electric service. 
 

The site contractor is a subcontractor. He works for me, and his costs are inside my contract with the owner. He NEVER "owns" any electric service, and can do his entire work without any  electricity. 
 

If a subcontractor came to me and said "I'm gonna use big electric equipment. I need you to install good electric service before you even start the building so I can charge my E36 M3", I'd tell him to pound sand and I'd hire someone else. Coordinating with the power company would cause up front delays of several months, and temporary power stations that are not necessary. The owner would not pay me for those things, and would not be ok with the related project delays. 
 

It's much different than heavy highway construction.

Will it happen?  Maybe someday. But definitely not in my lifetime. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 1:55 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

I don't consider clout to be a technical problem. We know how to do it. There might be a bunch of business or political reasons why it's not done, but that doesn't require any new technology. A technical problem is trying to figure out how to charge an enoooooormous battery without it catching on fire or browning out the state. Getting the utilities to run wires? Not technical, just paperwork. And it's the sort of thing that will gradually change. I do know that utility providers are an enormous pain in the ass.

Site trailers are a thing even on small jobs. What about a 20' shipping container with all the panels and support structure needed? Heck, it could contain a bunch of chargers. Drop it at the site, hook it up, take it away when it's done. That's not a hard thing to put together, technically.

Correct. It's not that hard. 
 

But who's gonna own it and pay for it?

Not a GC. That's for sure. And not a site contractor. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 1:57 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

You are not suggesting I own 1. You are suggesting I own 42 to keep our current projects running. To supply electricity for somebody else's equipment. 
 

Why would I do that?

You are offering solutions to problems I don't have. 

APEowner
APEowner GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
6/21/21 2:12 p.m.

There are potential issues with the grid as large scale vehicle electrification takes place but they're not insurmountable nor are they being ignored by the energy providers.  This isn't my area but there is work being done at the national laboratories and universities on identifying and quantifying the issues and coming up with strategies to overcome them.  The next time I see a study or a paper I'll see if it's available to the public and if it is I'll post a link. 

More difficult than the technical challenges are the political and business ones.  Most of the new and existing power sources with a smaller environmental impact are better suited to a grid system with multiple smaller inputs with a central control system as is used in Europe than the fewer large power plants in a loosely connected system that we currently have in the US.  As you can imagine trying to get all of the different companies and regulatory agencies to work together to change our current system is difficult.  The good news is that energy companies want to sell energy and most of them are looking at adding green energy sources to their portfolio and they're looking at, and in some cases funding the studies that are pointing to the need for change in how the industry works.  Still, state's rights, anti-trust laws and free market all need to be balanced against the potential improved efficiencies and reduced environmental impact of the system that the studies are telling us is technically superior from an environmental standpoint.

 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 2:17 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

That's true, but most heavy construction and mining equipment does not operate near available power, so charging is a real problem. We'd have to run a good sized generator to recharge. That won't work.

I think you forget I worked for Caterpillar, John  Deere, and Ingersol Rand for most of my professional career. 
   One of the first things done on a construction site is to bring power in. Quarries too!   
        Until the power is there generators are there.  Sometimes massive Standby generators,  bigger than I sold to regional Hospitals. 
 

Frenchy, I'm not doubting your professional experience. I'm sharing mine. 
 

We have 42 commercial and industrial projects running right now. Every one of them got TEMPORARY power early, but NONE got permanent power until very late in the process. The power company won't turn on power to the transformers until final inspections are complete.

There is no way a charger will run off temporary power. 

My current project has been running for 7 months so far. We will be getting temporary power for the first time next week.  It's a 40A single phase 110V only panel.  

We will not get our main power supply for 6 more months.

Are there exceptions?  Absolutely. Can it be done?  Sure.

Is it typical?  Nope.

That's not a technical problem, though. That's just a matter of the utilities running more robust power earlier. It can be done if necessary.

Frenchy, you know more about big cats than I do. But around here, a scraper is a high speed dirt planer :) It's my understanding that they basically ram the dirt in and there's no ballast I'm aware of. I'm not thinking that you couldn't do the job once on batteries, but the sheer amount of energy involved means there would have to be a LOT of battery and it would need an appropriate charging infrastructure. Beasts like this are going to be the most difficult ones to electrify. I'd expect to see things like rollers get changed over first, as they can certainly use the weight and they're not expending so much power.

Caterpillar calls these scrapers too ;) This thing has over 1000 hp and it's still expected that you'll occasionally have to give it a push.

Those are earth movers.  For every one of those sold by Caterpillar I'll bet 150-200 dozers are sold. 
  Yes they are designed to get an additional  push from a Dozer in the loading operation. 
      As contractors made the switch from Steam to diesel construction equipment  it didn't happen all at once.  Plus there were still steam operated equipment working when I was a young boy.  So it's not going to happen overnight.  But that doesn't mean it couldn't.  
Lawn mowing equipment is a perfect application for EV.  No reason to remain with IC except market forces. Yet only a tiny handful of suppliers even have a EV line.  

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 2:29 p.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

There is also a technical problem created by the chain of responsibility...

I am a general contractor. I build commercial and industrial spaces. 
 

I don't own the permanent electric system. Generally, we open 2 separate accounts, get the temporary installed quickly in our name,  and then act as agents for the owner to facilitate the ultimate installation of permanent power. The OWNER owns the permanent power system, and I "own" only the temporary electric service. 
 

The site contractor is a subcontractor. He works for me, and his costs are inside my contract with the owner. He NEVER "owns" any electric service, and can do his entire work without any  electricity. 
 

If a subcontractor came to me and said "I'm gonna use big electric equipment. I need you to install good electric service before you even start the building so I can charge my E36 M3", I'd tell him to pound sand and I'd hire someone else. Coordinating with the power company would cause up front delays of several months, and temporary power stations that are not necessary. The owner would not pay me for those things, and would not be ok with the related project delays. 
 

It's much different than heavy highway construction.

Will it happen?  Maybe someday. But definitely not in my lifetime. 

Every framing contractor I ever worked with had his own generators. I sold some of the bigger ones.  But the 5-6-10Kw  ones were there from the beginning. Long before  site power was.  
 If the project was big enough Site power was in right after the survey was done.  Gas, sewer,  and water started  as the foundation started. 
      Aerial equipment is already a significant portion electrified.  Since the really big moble  cranes have ballast come in on separate semi's it would be a piece of cake to bring the batteries in instead along with portable generators for recharging. 
    

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 2:48 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

Do you think a 6K generator will charge an electric dozer?

Why would we give up diesel so we could burn gasoline to generate electricity?  It doesn't make any sense. 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 2:54 p.m.

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

Why did the early contractors give up steam to buy oil based fuel?   
       Because it will be more efficient, cheaper to maintain, more reliable  and simpler.  
    Which is more reliable? A toaster or a lawn mower?  Too different?  A electric fan or a gas powered fan?  

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 2:56 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

Like I said... not gonna happen in my lifetime. 
 

And I'll happily wager a week's paycheck on that. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 3:01 p.m.

In reply to frenchyd :

And to answer your question more directly, I'd NEVER give up a gas powered fan for an electric one.  They are 2 different tools that do different jobs. 
 

We use gas powered fans for evac fans. It's not a job that can be done with electric. Often explosive environments, etc.
 

There is ALWAYS gonna be work that must be done remotely from power grids, and much more quickly than can be done negotiating with power providers.  For example... disaster relief.   It's gonna be a very long time before battery powered heavy equipment can replace ICE. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 4:12 p.m.

My proposed "substation in a box" would probably be best owned by the utilities and rented to the job. Utilities love to charge for stuff like this. I'll wager a week of Paul's wages that the US military already has yards of them painted tan.

Will something like this happen quickly? No. During Paul's lifetime? Depends on how healthy his choices are :) I can see how it could happen if it turns out that the equipment has other redeeming abilities. It'll be the market that drives it, if something like the F150EV turns out to have advantages that industry decides can be scaled up, the rest will follow.

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 4:26 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Dang!  You caught me!

My choices are sure to kill me soon, but I hoped I could sucker you into a bet!! Haha!

rslifkin
rslifkin UberDork
6/21/21 4:49 p.m.

In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :

Sealed electric motors for environments with an explosion risk are absolutely possible.  A gas engine needs to be prepped (appropriate ignition system parts, etc.) for safe use in that environment anyway.  

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
6/21/21 4:55 p.m.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

And to answer your question more directly, I'd NEVER give up a gas powered fan for an electric one.  They are 2 different tools that do different jobs. 
 

We use gas powered fans for evac fans. It's not a job that can be done with electric. Often explosive environments, etc.
 

There is ALWAYS gonna be work that must be done remotely from power grids, and much more quickly than can be done negotiating with power providers.  For example... disaster relief.   It's gonna be a very long time before battery powered heavy equipment can replace ICE. 

I do happen to agree with you.  Although you got me on that gas powered fan.  ( I was thinking of an airplane engine) 

 As far as how fast EV equipment replaces Diesels in construction?  I sold to those guys for almost 30 years and it was extremely rare for any of them to change their thinking.  
  I watched guys going slowly broke because they stuck with obsolete practices and equipment because it was paid for. I was as successful as I was for as long as I was because I never sold the equipment.  I sold efficiency.  I'd tell them about an upcoming job and how to win the bid using the equipment I rented or sold. 
 Using that approach,   doors were opened and  desks cleared when I came around. 
    Customers had me on speed dial. It wasn't unusual for me to get a call for equipment any time of the night or day. Sometimes referrals.  
       
Building that sort of reputation required me to be not just ahead of most salesmen  but focused on their needs. That's why the last year in the industry I spent it helping contractors do the planning and modifications to  stay afloat in the coming recession.  Even though it didn't put a dime in my pocket. 

SVreX (Forum Supporter)
SVreX (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
6/21/21 4:57 p.m.

In reply to rslifkin :

Correct. 
 

Have you ever checked the price of explosion proof motors?

 

Every utility contractor that ever needs to climb in a ditch or a confined space is already fully setup, and they are not gonna run out and buy high priced explosion proof electric motors to do the same job they already have the equipment to do (and run the risk of dead batteries with no where to plug them in to recharge).

It makes no sense.

APEowner
APEowner GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
6/21/21 5:04 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

My proposed "substation in a box" would probably be best owned by the utilities and rented to the job. Utilities love to charge for stuff like this. I'll wager a week of Paul's wages that the US military already has yards of them painted tan.

Will something like this happen quickly? No. During Paul's lifetime? Depends on how healthy his choices are :) I can see how it could happen if it turns out that the equipment has other redeeming abilities. It'll be the market that drives it, if something like the F150EV turns out to have advantages that industry decides can be scaled up, the rest will follow.

I've been involved in the design of some of them but I'm not sure that it makes sense to burn fuel to charge batteries to avoid burning fuel.  It's true that there are efficiencies to running the engine at a steady state but that seems like a roundabout way to get power to the ground.

I'm pretty confident that somewhere there's at least one computer running the numbers on that and other scenarios. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
6/21/21 5:32 p.m.

I wasn't thinking a generator, but a substation that can tap the grid and provide decent power delivery and maybe charging capability easily. The thing at the end of the wires, not the start of the wires. My understanding is the limitation of power at a lot of construction sites isn't the distance to power but getting access to what's already nearby - panels, etc. This is not necessarily true in the middle of Africa, I'm thinking of North America and Europe.

Whatever, just a general thought on how some of these problems are more political/financial than technical. Some problems remain because we don't have a way, some problems remain because we don't have enough of a will. And willpower does take the form of money :)

 

APEowner
APEowner GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
6/21/21 7:49 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

I wasn't thinking a generator, but a substation that can tap the grid and provide decent power delivery and maybe charging capability easily. The thing at the end of the wires, not the start of the wires. My understanding is the limitation of power at a lot of construction sites isn't the distance to power but getting access to what's already nearby - panels, etc. This is not necessarily true in the middle of Africa, I'm thinking of North America and Europe.

Whatever, just a general thought on how some of these problems are more political/financial than technical. Some problems remain because we don't have a way, some problems remain because we don't have enough of a will. And willpower does take the form of money :)

 

Ah.  I gotcha.  And, yes, I agree that a lot of the hurdles are political/financial rather than technical.

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