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frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
1/7/21 9:55 a.m.
Chris_V said:
ProDarwin said:

It will be interesting to see if manufacturers are able to offer price parity without the tax breaks.  Especially on the low end of the market.  I can go buy a brand new utility box for 17-18k (Fit, Soul, etc.) - will this be offerable once the tax breaks are gone?

 

There are no tax breaks on the Bolt. Haven't been for over a year and the price is under $25k for a 200hp, 265 lb ft hot hatch. Is that price parity enough for you?

 

 

You failed to mention continuing costs gasoline for me is $1700 a year compared to $210 electric  over a 20 year period. Over the life of the vehicle that's a $28,000 savings. 

Tom1200
Tom1200 SuperDork
1/7/21 10:02 a.m.

Don't know if this has been brought up already and I don't know the numbers but given that states make $0.20 - $0.50 a gallon on gasoline how do these entities propose to make up the tax revenue?

Likely they'll come up with a use tax for EVs and I suspect that use tax will be higher than the gas tax would have been.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 10:02 a.m.
Chris_V said:
ProDarwin said:

It will be interesting to see if manufacturers are able to offer price parity without the tax breaks.  Especially on the low end of the market.  I can go buy a brand new utility box for 17-18k (Fit, Soul, etc.) - will this be offerable once the tax breaks are gone?

 

There are no tax breaks on the Bolt. Haven't been for over a year and the price is under $25k for a 200hp, 265 lb ft hot hatch. Is that price parity enough for you?

 

 

Wow, when I looked at the discounts on that link I assumed one of them was the Tax Break.  That's nuts.   Is this a one time thing to clear out inventory (like the end of the Gen1 leaf run), or is this going to be the cost of Bolts moving forward?  The depreciation must really suck for all of those that bought in at like $30k laugh

 

To answer your question:   yeah, that's not bad.  I was simply pointing out that the bottom of the market for gas vehicles is lower than the bottom of the market for electric.  Hopefully someone will make a budget EV that goes down there.  For a utility box I don't need 200hp/265lbft, so that isn't really a great selling point.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 10:03 a.m.
frenchyd said:

You failed to mention continuing costs gasoline for me is $1700 a year compared to $210 electric  over a 20 year period. Over the life of the vehicle that's a $28,000 savings. 

What numbers are you using?  A Prius for example is about the same cost per mile as a Bolt (~$2.00 gallon and ~$0.12/kwhr)

STM317
STM317 UberDork
1/7/21 10:15 a.m.
Tom1200 said:

Don't know if this has been brought up already and I don't know the numbers but given that states make $0.20 - $0.50 a gallon on gasoline how do these entities propose to make up the tax revenue?

Likely they'll come up with a use tax for EVs and I suspect that use tax will be higher than the gas tax would have been.

They just charge an annual fee at registration

It can seriously impact cost per mile in the states with higher fees.

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
1/7/21 10:31 a.m.
ProDarwin said:
Chris_V said:
ProDarwin said:

It will be interesting to see if manufacturers are able to offer price parity without the tax breaks.  Especially on the low end of the market.  I can go buy a brand new utility box for 17-18k (Fit, Soul, etc.) - will this be offerable once the tax breaks are gone?

 

There are no tax breaks on the Bolt. Haven't been for over a year and the price is under $25k for a 200hp, 265 lb ft hot hatch. Is that price parity enough for you?

 

 

Wow, when I looked at the discounts on that link I assumed one of them was the Tax Break.  That's nuts.   Is this a one time thing to clear out inventory (like the end of the Gen1 leaf run), or is this going to be the cost of Bolts moving forward? 

THis has been the cost of Bolts from GM for the last year. That dealership is where I bought mine in February 2020 and they always have at least 30 new ones in stock, but the inventory rotates pretty fast as they sell a LOT of Bolts.

 

And now the pricing is even better:

 

As to your other point, the bottom of the market gas vehicles have always competed with used cars and used EVs are CHEAP. First year off lease Bolts are getting to be under $10k now. and you still get 5 years of warranty on the battery and drivetrain, minimal maintenance, and a 230+ mile real world range.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 10:48 a.m.
Chris_V said:

used EVs are CHEAP. First year off lease Bolts are getting to be under $10k now. 

That ties into my other point.  One of the reasons they are CHEAP is that there is a potential $10k battery replacement cost down the road.  Just how far down the road, nobody knows.  Surely it will be better than the Leaf, but that's not exactly a high bar.

Still, $10k for a Bolt is a lot of car for the money.  I just searched cars.com.  Lowest I see is $12,500.  I need to run some numbers on that and see what the long term TCO is.

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
1/7/21 2:29 p.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

My fuel/ electric  costs are based on a 10 year average cost divided by 10.  On a 20,000 annual mile basis.  My electric cost start low and are reduced by the fact my employer provides plug in's for winter block heaters. 
Now if that is valid for everyone I don't know. Every person has to use their own figures. I just don't think people realize yet the potential cost savings. 
 
As far as battery replacement goes,  Tesla reports some very high mileage (400,000+ miles)  cars with no appreciable deterioration in battery life.  I've got 15 year old batteries in my Milwaukee power tools and they still work longer than I can. Plus my 20 year old lap top still works on its original batteries. This phone is 6 years old and still gives me a full days useage. 
Now lead acid batteries seldom give me 4 years. They usually are replaced at 3. So if you base your thinking on lead acid. I can understand your fear. 

Vajingo
Vajingo Reader
1/7/21 2:44 p.m.
L5wolvesf said:
Pete. (l33t FS) said:
bobzilla said:

In reply to Vajingo :

Similar to tube-type TV's. You can't even give one away.

Given peoples' attachment to cars for their subjective qualities, unlike televisions (people don't write songs about their old Zenith)...  I see it making the used market go up.

Well she got her daddy's TV
And she cruised through the hamburger stand now

 

Seems she forgot all about the library
Like she told her old man now

 

And with the TV blasting
Goes cruising just as fast as she can now

 

And she'll have fun fun fun
'Til her daddy takes the Zenith away
 

We have a thread for songs like this

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 3:53 p.m.
frenchyd said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

My fuel/ electric  costs are based on a 10 year average cost divided by 10.  On a 20,000 annual mile basis.  My electric cost start low and are reduced by the fact my employer provides plug in's for winter block heaters. 
Now if that is valid for everyone I don't know. Every person has to use their own figures. I just don't think people realize yet the potential cost savings. 
 
As far as battery replacement goes,  Tesla reports some very high mileage (400,000+ miles)  cars with no appreciable deterioration in battery life.  I've got 15 year old batteries in my Milwaukee power tools and they still work longer than I can. Plus my 20 year old lap top still works on its original batteries. This phone is 6 years old and still gives me a full days useage. 
Now lead acid batteries seldom give me 4 years. They usually are replaced at 3. So if you base your thinking on lead acid. I can understand your fear. 

 

I have no idea what you mean by fuel/electric costs.  What I meant is this:

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile*

*not including charger efficiency, which is around 90-95% for most chargers

rslifkin
rslifkin UberDork
1/7/21 3:56 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

I have no idea what you mean by fuel/electric costs.  What I meant is this:

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile*

*not including charger efficiency, which is around 90-95% for most chargers

The bolt should have slightly less mechanical stuff to maintain over its life, so that would tip the overall costs a little further in its direction. 

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 4:08 p.m.

In reply to rslifkin :

Agreed, IF battey replacement isn't needed.

secretariata (Forum Supporter)
secretariata (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand SuperDork
1/7/21 4:23 p.m.
CyberEric said:

In reply to secretariata (Forum Supporter) :

I’m intrigued. Can you provide a link to that study?

This isn't exactly the report I read, but I think it is a condensed version of the same info.  Maybe I saw a draft and it got edited down.  The version I saw was about twice as many pages, but the graphics and gist of it look to be the same.

https://media.rff.org/documents/EV_Report_CKk1rbq.pdf

rslifkin
rslifkin UberDork
1/7/21 4:23 p.m.
ProDarwin said:

In reply to rslifkin :

Agreed, IF battey replacement isn't needed.

That's a risk for the Prius or the Bolt, although cheaper for the Prius.  Realistically, the batteries in EVs and hybrids seem to typically last long enough that someone buying one new or almost-new is unlikely to replace a battery. 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
1/7/21 5:16 p.m.
ProDarwin said:
frenchyd said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

My fuel/ electric  costs are based on a 10 year average cost divided by 10.  On a 20,000 annual mile basis.  My electric cost start low and are reduced by the fact my employer provides plug in's for winter block heaters. 
Now if that is valid for everyone I don't know. Every person has to use their own figures. I just don't think people realize yet the potential cost savings. 
 
As far as battery replacement goes,  Tesla reports some very high mileage (400,000+ miles)  cars with no appreciable deterioration in battery life.  I've got 15 year old batteries in my Milwaukee power tools and they still work longer than I can. Plus my 20 year old lap top still works on its original batteries. This phone is 6 years old and still gives me a full days useage. 
Now lead acid batteries seldom give me 4 years. They usually are replaced at 3. So if you base your thinking on lead acid. I can understand your fear. 

 

I have no idea what you mean by fuel/electric costs.  What I meant is this:

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile*

*not including charger efficiency, which is around 90-95% for most chargers

Well fuel here  today isn't $2.00 a gallon it's at $2.19/9  Electricity is at .095 a kwh except I don't get charged at all at work. Since work is 23 miles away I could basically get all my electricity free. 
 several of my neighbors have solar panels on the roof but none of them have oil Wells. ( or refineries ) 

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 5:25 p.m.

In reply to rslifkin :

Yes, however that cost is going to go somewhere - decreased resale because people will be too afraid to buy them well-used.

Definitely a risk for the Prius, but a well understood risk.  It is not very well understood at all for the Bolt and other EVs.  The longest any of them has been on the market is the Leaf, and the only data there is that A) they degrade pretty quickly and B) they cost a berkeley ton to replace the batteries.  I'm sure newer EVs are much better for many reasons, but how much?

I'm not anti-EV by any means.  I would love to own one.  But I am very aware that there is a big part of their ownership that isn't understood.  Someone mentioned recently that the average age of a car on the road was 14 years.  I recall reading 11 myself, but either way, the oldest mass market EV hasn't reached that point yet - there is a lot to learn.

From an engineering/efficiency mindset, I have a lot of issues with a vehicle that's intended to be thrown away after 10 years/150k miles.  I would expect much of this forum to understand that.

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 5:28 p.m.
frenchyd said:

Well fuel here  today isn't $2.00 a gallon it's at $2.19/9  Electricity is at .095 a kwh except I don't get charged at all at work. Since work is 23 miles away I could basically get all my electricity free. 
 several of my neighbors have solar panels on the roof but none of them have oil Wells. ( or refineries ) 

Prius @ 2.19 = $.039/mile

Bolt @ .095/kw = $0.027/mile

Of course for your situation, you need to factor in COLD!! weather performance, and I'm sure that efficiency of the Bolt has an impact.

 

Either way, yes, in your situation, free electricity would weigh any EV in your favor.  However, thats not going to continue.  The more people adopt EVs, the less their employers will allow free charging.

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
1/7/21 5:37 p.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

This magazine had a Volt for a year and it was rather reliable while that is not the impression I'm getting with Leaf owners. So perhaps another brand should become the standard? 
Would you be prepared to admit that electrics could be a good reliable, affordable, transportation method?  
     We all know every single brand has its loyalist and opponents.  We are unlikely to get the straight skinny from either extreme.  The general concession is that Ford Pickups are good. I mean it's the best selling pickup by a lot and they can't all be wrong.  
   However how many decades went by before that position became accepted?   
    Do we really want to wait that long before accepting EV's? 

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 5:48 p.m.

The volt is not an EV.  Its a hybrid. 

Yes, I am prepared.  I HOPE that they are good, reliable transportation for many, many, many years.  If I had data to suggest that, I'd buy one in an instant.  As it is, I am hesitant, but not against them.  The used bolt prices ChrisV pointed out earlier are actually quite appealing.

I don't know what you mean by accept them.  I accept them.  I am aware of their shortcomings, and the data we don't yet have though, so I am skeptical of their long term reliability & TCO.

 

frenchyd
frenchyd PowerDork
1/7/21 6:08 p.m.

In reply to ProDarwin :

I understand and I'm sorry if my language seemed to make you defensive. Not my intention. 
Further I understand your reluctance, but let me say this. Just like the stock market past performance is no guarantee of future.  
      I was such a loyal Chevy owner. More than 20 new cars (but in hind sight some were absolutely terrible). My Monza with the V8 and 4 speed was a classic example. The brakes faded constantly. Little 13 inch wheels 9-10" rotors?  Clutch worn out at 30,000 and rust ( it was built on a Vega). Etc. 
When I changed to a New Ford after owning my Chevy pickup for 20 years and  371,XXX reliable miles. It was a difficult choice to make.  Retrospect I'm happy. Ask me in 15 more years if I still feel that way. 

ProDarwin
ProDarwin MegaDork
1/7/21 7:07 p.m.

Frenchy:  I am defending my viewpoint, but I don't mean to be harsh, apologies if it comes across that way.

 

Richard - here is some info on # of passes you can get from a Tesla.  Its pretty impressive.

Guy who did 28 consecutive runs with data.  The slowest of them is still significantly faster than any car I have owned:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOj54sRI65k

Info on performance at respective states of charge:  https://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/videos/a32831/heres-exactly-how-much-a-tesla-slows-down-as-its-battery-gets-depleted/

There is an article out there somewhere, I forget where, where they measure the amount that can be recovered at the end of a run through regen as well.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
1/7/21 7:11 p.m.
03Panther said:

Government regulation has always been the stimulus for advancement.  At at least, since 1966 when automotive emissions started to be regulated.

Yep started forcing crap systems on us way before they were effective. Only took about 25 years to get where the systems were not junk.

They were effective, otherwise they would not have been able to be sold in the US (or California).

We have a kind of bizarre perspective in this country because the Big 3's answer was basically a lazy and arrogant "berk it, just keep dropping compression and cam timing, people will buy 150hp big blocks and like it, because what else are they going to buy?"  Well, they bought Hondas and Toyotas and VWs and other imports, because those companies were not afraid to add innovation.  It took a long time for American automakers to turn around and innovate as well, and the boot kicking their ass was their market share dwindling because the import manufacturers didn't have their heads up their asses.

Before the cataytic converter was invented, a GM representative whined to the government that there was no way they could build engines that would meet 1975 emissions standards.  A Honda rep at that meeting snidely commented that they would be happy to sell engines to GM, because they already could do it.  (This historical anecdote makes the Honda-engined Saturns HILARIOUS to me smiley )

Even electronic ignition was adopted because it was needed to meet emissions specs.

I guess its supposed to be a good thing that the automakers forced horrible stop gap systems on us, while they learned how to build one that worked well, instead having the time to develop a good system before selling us junk.

If it wasn't for the regulatory carrot, we'd still be driving cars with points and carbs

Uh, no. absolutely not true. The thirst for improvements are always there, for some people.

It totally is true, and I can prove it:  People buy used cars instead of new ones because they are a cheaper way to get transportation.

If someone came out today with a zero-tech car that retailed for $8000, people would buy them in droves because they are cheap.

...15 year old car with 240,000mi that runs high 13s, emits exhaust cleaner than the air it breathes in...

If that was true, the air would be getting better and cleaner the more your car was driven. So improvements would be a detriment.

Any car running with a functional converter and functioning feedback fuel control is emitting water vapor, CO2, and levels of HC/CO/NOx lower than the surrounding atmosphere.  Almost all emissions nowadays is from cold starts, running under power enrichment(asterisk), and evaporative emissions when parked.

More interesting is that Volvo has radiators with a special coating on the radiator core that breaks down ground-level ozone into O2.  So they literally do make the air cleaner smiley 

 

Asterisk - Note that the big push nowadays is for engines that run stoich ALL THE TIME, even under full throttle.  And automakers for years have employed time based power enrichment - they run stoich for three or five seconds at WOT and only then start to add fuel for valve and catalyst cooling.  Theory being that most people only use heavy throttle for a few seconds at most for pulling out to pass or something, and the engine can handle a short burst at heavy throttle just fine, it's only for extended pulls that the additional cooling is needed.  Hell, even MEGASQUIRT has an option for a time based power enrichment scheme like this!

alfadriver (Forum Supporter)
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
1/7/21 7:35 p.m.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

For now, we are still allowed to go rich for component protection (virtually always in the exhaust system).  But the amount of time we can do that is defined by the US06 and how it fits into a composite number.

Pete. (l33t FS)
Pete. (l33t FS) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
1/7/21 7:58 p.m.
Chris_V said:I bought the Bolt due to the performance and size (it's larger than a Sonic, too). 265lb ft delivered instantly at any speed. No waiting, just quick thrust. And a low CG for great handling (though saddled with LRR tires for crappy handling lol). It drives like a hot hatch.

I am suddenly interested in a Chevy.

 

THIS IS CONFLICTING, GUYS

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
1/8/21 8:49 a.m.
RichardSIA said:.

I get a laugh out of the EV "Instant full torque' myth. For how long, or how many passes? An eight-second quarter and eight hour re-charge, sorry, not really impressed

It's available every time you hit the throttle pedal. Listen, you have zero experience, I live with them on a daily basis, You need to learn something or STFU. The cars feel super quike all the time. Every time I need to take off from a light or accelerate to pass someone, or burst out of a corner, it's there instantly. No waiting for spool up or to get to a certain rpm. Drive one. You'll see. My Bolt drives like a hot hatch, which is essentially what it is. You can really feel the low CG from havving the batteries under the car. It's a set of tires awy from being really impressive. With heavy regen in L or with the paddle regen, you get one pedal driving and deceleration that feels like letting off in a manual trans car in a lower gear. Its actually quite fun.

https://www.hybridcars.com/can-a-chevrolet-bolt-ev-electrify-on-track-we-autocross-one-to-find-out/

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