Mass banning sales of new ICE vehicles in 2035?

Chris_V said:

RichardSIA said:.

I get a laugh out of the EV "Instant full torque' myth. For how long, or how many passes? An eight-second quarter and eight hour re-charge, sorry, not really impressed

It's available every time you hit the throttle pedal. Listen, you have zero experience, I live with them on a daily basis, You need to learn something or STFU. The cars feel super quike all the time. Every time I need to take off from a light or accelerate to pass someone, or burst out of a corner, it's there instantly. No waiting for spool up or to get to a certain rpm. Drive one. You'll see. My Bolt drives like a hot hatch, which is essentially what it is. You can really feel the low CG from havving the batteries under the car. It's a set of tires awy from being really impressive. With heavy regen in L or with the paddle regen, you get one pedal driving and deceleration that feels like letting off in a manual trans car in a lower gear. Its actually quite fun.

https://www.hybridcars.com/can-a-chevrolet-bolt-ev-electrify-on-track-we-autocross-one-to-find-out/

I have not yet seen this thread, but I am also a Bolt driver, and I can agree. Instant throttle response means so much more than overall power for street driving, and happily the Bolt has both. GM really rolls the torque on slowly compared to what it could do if they weren't worried about breaking parts, and it's still amazing. The throttle response is like the difference between a poorly tuned carburetor and modern fuel injection. I never touch the brakes other than surprising traffic. It's the perfect commuter car, and it's really quick to boot. Don't forget about how much more cargo space it has, and how wide the rear seats are, with no tank, no exhaust, no transmission. It's amazing.

RichardSIA said:

I get a laugh out of the EV "Instant full torque' myth.

It is hard to take stock in anything you write as zero rpm torque is an inherent feature of electric motors, period. Not being able to understand this yet spout off anything else technical is a bit hard to swallow.

ProDarwin said:

frenchyd said:

In reply to ProDarwin :

My fuel/ electric  costs are based on a 10 year average cost divided by 10.  On a 20,000 annual mile basis.  My electric cost start low and are reduced by the fact my employer provides plug in's for winter block heaters. 
Now if that is valid for everyone I don't know. Every person has to use their own figures. I just don't think people realize yet the potential cost savings. 
 
As far as battery replacement goes,  Tesla reports some very high mileage (400,000+ miles)  cars with no appreciable deterioration in battery life.  I've got 15 year old batteries in my Milwaukee power tools and they still work longer than I can. Plus my 20 year old lap top still works on its original batteries. This phone is 6 years old and still gives me a full days useage. 
Now lead acid batteries seldom give me 4 years. They usually are replaced at 3. So if you base your thinking on lead acid. I can understand your fear. 

 

I have no idea what you mean by fuel/electric costs.  What I meant is this:

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile*

*not including charger efficiency, which is around 90-95% for most chargers

That figure is my "heat on, 30 degree day" number. The rest of the year it's more like 4 mi/kwhr.

In reply to tuna55 :

fuel prices won't remain this low for long.  While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

so.. at $4/gal gas and maybe $.18/kwhr electricity the differences are..

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile

Prius: 55mpg @ 4.00/gal = $.073/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.18/kwhr = $0.052/mile

However, TCO will include maint. and the prius will need atleast oil changes over the life of the car.. so lets say it's $40 for 5K miles... that adds an additional .008 per mile in cost..

Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) said:

RichardSIA said:

I get a laugh out of the EV "Instant full torque' myth.

It is hard to take stock in anything you write as zero rpm torque is an inherent feature of electric motors, period. Not being able to understand this yet spout off anything else technical is a bit hard to swallow.

Wellll..... if you want to nitpick, my Kia Soul EV had software limitations on the torque available to the wheels from a stop and ramped up to full torque by 30 mph.

But the general theme is spot on.  In an ICE you may have to downshift to get into the powerband or peg the throttle and wait for the power to build.  In an EV there's never that delay--peg the throttle and the car gives you all it can, every time. 

In my Soul or an early Leaf, that meant always having a nice surge to slot into traffic or pull away from a roll at low to moderate speeds; the effect was less impressive at highway speeds because the cars were down on power and were limited to about 90 mph anyway.  There's no such sacrafice at highway speeds in my MIL's Model 3 Performance -- if you see a gap, it's yours, always.  It's a little intoxicating that even at highway speeds you can always pull away from other vehicles around you up until you're well into 'arrest me' speeds.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

If you expect gas to increase that much what is the explaination that electricty prices won't go up accordingly? if it's carbon tax related, I would think that coal and natural gas generated prices would go that same way, while renewable generated prices would be the same or lower.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to tuna55 :

fuel prices won't remain this low for long.  While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

so.. at $4/gal gas and maybe $.18/kwhr electricity the differences are..

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile

Prius: 55mpg @ 4.00/gal = $.073/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.18/kwhr = $0.052/mile

 

However, TCO will include maint. and the prius will need atleast oil changes over the life of the car.. so lets say it's $40 for 5K miles... that adds an additional .008 per mile in cost..

Yes, in the US the gas prices go up dramatically faster than the electricity costs.

Still though, calling the Bolt 3.5 mi/kwhr is a big underestimate. The model 3 is there, but the Bolt is 3.9-4.1 in my use in above freezing temperatures. It would be like calling the Prius 48 mpg instead of 55 mpg.

Now look at the same calc with a nonhybrid car.

As far as maintenance: Yes there is the remote possibility of needing a battery in ten years. However I'll never need fuel injectors, transmission fluid, fuel pump, oil change, air filter, catalytic converters, timing belt, motor mounts, coolant flushes, water pump... or brakes!

In reply to Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) :

I don't see them going up propotionally..  Our demand for electricity has sky rocketed in the past couple decades, but yet rates haven't tripled due to "utility" status and regulation.  

What I think will happen is that if gas taxes go down a bit, other revenue streams will be developed for the government as replacements..

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to tuna55 :

fuel prices won't remain this low for long.  While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

so.. at $4/gal gas and maybe $.18/kwhr electricity the differences are..

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile

Prius: 55mpg @ 4.00/gal = $.073/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.18/kwhr = $0.052/mile

 

However, TCO will include maint. and the prius will need atleast oil changes over the life of the car.. so lets say it's $40 for 5K miles... that adds an additional .008 per mile in cost..

Yes, in the US the gas prices go up dramatically faster than the electricity costs.

 

Still though, calling the Bolt 3.5 mi/kwhr is a big underestimate. The model 3 is there, but the Bolt is 3.9-4.1 in my use in above freezing temperatures. It would be like calling the Prius 48 mpg instead of 55 mpg.

 

Now look at the same calc with a nonhybrid car.

 

As far as maintenance: Yes there is the remote possibility of needing a battery in ten years. However I'll never need fuel injectors, transmission fluid, fuel pump, oil change, air filter, catalytic converters, timing belt, motor mounts, coolant flushes, water pump... or brakes!

Consider the 3.5 an adjustment for charger (in)efficiency then.

We are nitpicking here.  The point is the cost difference is not significant between a Prius and a Bolt.  It depends on your local utility & fuel costs.  It obviously depends on the starting price as well - if you look at the Bolt prices Chris showed earlier, they have taken a beating on depreciation far more than any Prius has.  Although as pointed out, if you are starting from a ~4 year old, ~40-70k mile ish car, this might be a win.

A Prius doesn't have a timing belt.  It may require trans fluid, but its effectively lubricating just the diff, so I don't see how that's any different than whatever the Bolt has for a front diff.  Yes, it requires an air filter, and oil changes.

Yes, obviously a non-hybrid car is significantly more expensive to operate.

I don't think the battery thing is just a remote possibility.  We know batteries wear out.  They wear out on Priuses, they wear out on power tools, the wear out on cell phones, etc.

What do you expect the lifespan of the battery of a Bolt to be out of curiosity?

In reply to ProDarwin :

Realistically 15+ years. Depending on use and charging cycles.  
 Predicting past that is like calling the temperature a year in advance. 
I know I can go in and have weak cells replaced on my power tools at a pretty minimum cost.   The Dewalt tool set I bought  20 years ago still has 3 decent batteries of the 5 I was provided with. Now it's true I haven't used them in more than a year so who knows but they aren't even lithium.  My Milwaukee set that is 15 years old still can outwork me. 

ProDarwin said:

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to tuna55 :

fuel prices won't remain this low for long.  While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

so.. at $4/gal gas and maybe $.18/kwhr electricity the differences are..

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile

Prius: 55mpg @ 4.00/gal = $.073/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.18/kwhr = $0.052/mile

 

However, TCO will include maint. and the prius will need atleast oil changes over the life of the car.. so lets say it's $40 for 5K miles... that adds an additional .008 per mile in cost..

Yes, in the US the gas prices go up dramatically faster than the electricity costs.

 

Still though, calling the Bolt 3.5 mi/kwhr is a big underestimate. The model 3 is there, but the Bolt is 3.9-4.1 in my use in above freezing temperatures. It would be like calling the Prius 48 mpg instead of 55 mpg.

 

Now look at the same calc with a nonhybrid car.

 

As far as maintenance: Yes there is the remote possibility of needing a battery in ten years. However I'll never need fuel injectors, transmission fluid, fuel pump, oil change, air filter, catalytic converters, timing belt, motor mounts, coolant flushes, water pump... or brakes!

Consider the 3.5 an adjustment for charger (in)efficiency then.

We are nitpicking here.  The point is the cost difference is not significant between a Prius and a Bolt.  It depends on your local utility & fuel costs.  It obviously depends on the starting price as well - if you look at the Bolt prices Chris showed earlier, they have taken a beating on depreciation far more than any Prius has.  Although as pointed out, if you are starting from a ~4 year old, ~40-70k mile ish car, this might be a win.

A Prius doesn't have a timing belt.  It may require trans fluid, but its effectively lubricating just the diff, so I don't see how that's any different than whatever the Bolt has for a front diff.  Yes, it requires an air filter, and oil changes.

Yes, obviously a non-hybrid car is significantly more expensive to operate.

 

I don't think the battery thing is just a remote possibility.  We know batteries wear out.  They wear out on Priuses, they wear out on power tools, the wear out on cell phones, etc.

What do you expect the lifespan of the battery of a Bolt to be out of curiosity?

 

Lifespan is a sliding scale. I bought a car which can make the 80 mile round trip three times without charging in a pinch. How long will the battery take to lose 60% of its capacity? 20 years. Maybe longer. It's heated and cooled.

Right now, the "fix" for a faulty battery pack is to replace the whole thing with a new one at high cost, but that doesn't mean it will always be that way.  Mazduece already demonstrated a battery pack can be repaired in his Honda Insight thread a couple of years ago.  Find the faulty cell(s), replace it, reinstall and continue on your merry way. 

It won't take long before this sort of diagnosis and repair becomes part of your local repair shop's regular tasks.

^It already is at shops that service hybrid batteries.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to Paul_VR6 (Forum Supporter) :

I don't see them going up propotionally..  Our demand for electricity has sky rocketed in the past couple decades, but yet rates haven't tripled due to "utility" status and regulation.  

What I think will happen is that if gas taxes go down a bit, other revenue streams will be developed for the government as replacements..

Don't forget the "free" energy supply provided by homeowners with solar/ wind.  As panel costs and wind generator costs decrease more and more homeowners are adding to the available supply. Not only reducing their demand but supplying surplus.  
    Since that surplus power is consumed locally transmission losses become a non-factor.  If the solar/wind generation is distant from the utility power plant transmission losses can approach 40-50%  so a smallish surplus can really benefit the supply.  

ProDarwin said:

tuna55 said:

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to tuna55 :

fuel prices won't remain this low for long.  While Electricity rates will increase, I don't see them doubling, but $4 and $5 gas is a reality.

so.. at $4/gal gas and maybe $.18/kwhr electricity the differences are..

Prius: 55mpg @ 2.00/gal = $.036/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.12/kwhr = $0.034/mile

Prius: 55mpg @ 4.00/gal = $.073/mile

Bolt:  3.5mi/kwhr @ $0.18/kwhr = $0.052/mile

 

However, TCO will include maint. and the prius will need atleast oil changes over the life of the car.. so lets say it's $40 for 5K miles... that adds an additional .008 per mile in cost..

Yes, in the US the gas prices go up dramatically faster than the electricity costs.

 

Still though, calling the Bolt 3.5 mi/kwhr is a big underestimate. The model 3 is there, but the Bolt is 3.9-4.1 in my use in above freezing temperatures. It would be like calling the Prius 48 mpg instead of 55 mpg.

 

Now look at the same calc with a nonhybrid car.

 

As far as maintenance: Yes there is the remote possibility of needing a battery in ten years. However I'll never need fuel injectors, transmission fluid, fuel pump, oil change, air filter, catalytic converters, timing belt, motor mounts, coolant flushes, water pump... or brakes!

Consider the 3.5 an adjustment for charger (in)efficiency then.

We are nitpicking here.  The point is the cost difference is not significant between a Prius and a Bolt.  It depends on your local utility & fuel costs.  It obviously depends on the starting price as well - if you look at the Bolt prices Chris showed earlier, they have taken a beating on depreciation far more than any Prius has.  Although as pointed out, if you are starting from a ~4 year old, ~40-70k mile ish car, this might be a win.

A Prius doesn't have a timing belt.  It may require trans fluid, but its effectively lubricating just the diff, so I don't see how that's any different than whatever the Bolt has for a front diff.  Yes, it requires an air filter, and oil changes.

Yes, obviously a non-hybrid car is significantly more expensive to operate.

 

I don't think the battery thing is just a remote possibility.  We know batteries wear out.  They wear out on Priuses, they wear out on power tools, the wear out on cell phones, etc.

What do you expect the lifespan of the battery of a Bolt to be out of curiosity?

 

Within the lifespan of my car under my ownership, I do consider it a remote possibility.

My notes about repair were geared more towards to average ICE car, not the Prius specifically. Also I pay more like 9 cents per kwh, so it is far cheaper yet, especially when you use 4 mi/kwh

Regarding hybrids, battery evs, and batteries I can't properly cite the sources but they are newspaper articles I've read over the years in the Vancouver Sun.

The first was the original pro us taxi operator he replaced a Crown Vic with a first series Prius figured out he saved on gas and downtime and came out ahead. He ran that one to approx. 400,000 km battery was fine. Toyota was interested and swapped him a second series so they could evaluate the car.

In the past year a cabbie bought a Tesla 3 on the basis of pay the gas companies or the bank the money is being spent so he is conducting an experiment to see if it really is a wash.

Rons said:

The first was the original pro us taxi operator he replaced a Crown Vic with a first series Prius figured out he saved on gas and downtime and came out ahead. He ran that one to approx. 400,000 km battery was fine. Toyota was interested and swapped him a second series so they could evaluate the car.

Yes, there is a lot of history of Priuses doing insane mileage on their batteries.  However, that mileage needs to be racked up quick.  It seems to be more of a function of time than mileage.  Once they are 12-15 years old, failures are not uncommon.  Thankfully its not *that* big a deal to replace.

There are Tesla taxis that have done the same thing (although not quite as high mileage).  I'm curious if we will see the same thing with regards to age as the Teslas get older.

Another thing that may play a part in TOC is Insurance. I have no idea if they'd be drastically different for an EV over a ICE vehicle but it is a consideration.

Inspired by all the math of costs per mile though I added up what my 07 Ford Fusion has cost over the time I've had it. Bought used for 4K and I've had it for 7 years and put 46K miles on it. Purchase, insurance, oil changes, repairs, tires and gas (average cost guess of 2.50 and 25mpg)..... $0.232/mile 

By FAR the cheapest vehicle to own I've ever had. Meanwhile my Superduty is somewhere around $0.62

asphalt_gundam said:

Another thing that may play a part in TOC is Insurance. I have no idea if they'd be drastically different for an EV over a ICE vehicle but it is a consideration.

Inspired by all the math of costs per mile though I added up what my 07 Ford Fusion has cost over the time I've had it. Bought used for 4K and I've had it for 7 years and put 46K miles on it. Purchase, insurance, oil changes, repairs, tires and gas (average cost guess of 2.50 and 25mpg)..... $0.272/mile 

By FAR the cheapest vehicle to own I've ever had. Meanwhile my Superduty is somewhere around $0.62

Used vehicles have to be compared versus similarly priced used vehicles.

My friend uses an involved spreadsheet to pick vehicles, and he was proudly touting his Prius as the lowest he found. I made him put in my 88 Accord, and assuming $0 sales price I cut his price in half. If I added in the sale (which was over the purchase price) I broke the sheet.

In reply to tuna55 :

Absolutely agree. I'm not saying the Fusion is the cheapest...but it sure has been for me personally. Super cheap insurance and next to zero repairs is a big part. Has me in the spot where I want a more fun daily but it is just so damn cheap compared to getting something more sporty

ProDarwin said:

^It already is at shops that service hybrid batteries.

We were shown how to do this with Toyotas many years ago (at least five-six).  Toyota monitors the individual cells in the battery packs and you can use a scantool to identify weak ones.

asphalt_gundam said:

In reply to tuna55 :

Absolutely agree. I'm not saying the Fusion is the cheapest...but it sure has been for me personally. Super cheap insurance and next to zero repairs is a big part. Has me in the spot where I want a more fun daily but it is just so damn cheap compared to getting something more sporty

Cheap, reliable daily drivers entitle you to splurge on a fun car. At least that's the justification I've always used.  

Some data corrections are needed here. Most studies I have read say EVs batteries are spent for an EV at aboout 70% of their life.

When an EV battery is reaching its end-of-life of its vehicle service, the battery can either be repurposed for a second-life in alternative applications or recycled to obtain the raw materials. Unlike batteries used in consumer electronics such as our laptops and mobile phones, the batteries retired from electric cars could still retain 70-80% of their initial capacity. Those batteries cannot satisfy the requirements for use in EVs anymore, for example when the loss of battery capacity limits the driving range of the electric car, but they could provide sufficient capacity for less-demanding applications such as stationary energy storage in their 'second-life.' Global EV manufacturers including Nissan, Renault, BMW, Volkswagen, BYD and so on have been exploring various usage scenarios for second-life EV batteries from residential, to commercial and grid-scale energy storage applications. However, there are companies such as Tesla who claimed that all of their EV batteries will be directly recycled instead of being repurposed for a second-life.

 https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/end-of-life-electric-vehicle-batteries-recycling-or-second-life-says-idtechex-301073806.html

Now the business to get into right now is the repurposing and/or recycling EV batteries.

Recycling will be required (providing new advances or types of batteries are developed) because of all of the rare earth materials in these EV batteries. From the same article:

 By 2020 we will already have around 14 GWh, or 102,000 tonnes of Li-ion batteries retiring from EVs per year. With the rapid adoption of EVs, the total amount of EV batteries reaching end-of-life is expected to reach 7.8 million tonnes per year by 2040, according to the latest IDTechEx report, "Li-ion Battery Recycling 2020-2040."

No clue what is involved in either repurposing or recycling but it looks like a hell of a business to be ini by 2040. 

tuna55 said:

Used vehicles have to be compared versus similarly priced used vehicles.

 

My friend uses an involved spreadsheet to pick vehicles, and he was proudly touting his Prius as the lowest he found. I made him put in my 88 Accord, and assuming $0 sales price I cut his price in half. If I added in the sale (which was over the purchase price) I broke the sheet.

What really breaks it is when you factor in the invested time-value of the money that is otherwise spent on the vehicle!

frenchyd said

Cheap, reliable daily drivers entitle you to splurge on a fun car. At least that's the justification I've always used.  

THAT is a statement I can agree with 100%