Where are we in the Miata curve?

Keith Tanner wrote: Is that any different from the MGB? You guys need to stop thinking of Miatas as only being produced for a short time. They've been around for nearly a quarter century and they're still in production. While it might be getting harder to find a 30k 1993 motor, that's not due to the racers. It's because that motor is from a 20-year-old car. The parts availability for the newer models is still very good. Spec Miata has been around for some time, when exactly does the terrible event occur that leads to decreased supply and increased prices?

Yep, agree with this. There have been a lot of Miatas made over the years, and the number grows by the day. Yes, there are less NA's running around, but time takes its' toll on all cars. I'd bet that neglect and rust have claimed the lives of more NA's than racing. I think NA's will hold some value, but not to the level of a "collector" car. Only exception would be something like that 30k mile CRX posted in another thread.

I just saw a '91, if I remember correcty, just east of Columbus for $500 last night. Didn't look bad in the pictures including the top, but who knows what it looked like in person. It ran and drove and if I had the time I would have been making a trip to Columbus.

I probably should have made time as it's gone now...

Keith Tanner wrote: Is that any different from the MGB? You guys need to stop thinking of Miatas as only being produced for a short time. They've been around for nearly a quarter century and they're still in production. While it might be getting harder to find a 30k 1993 motor, that's not due to the racers. It's because that motor is from a 20-year-old car. The parts availability for the newer models is still very good. Spec Miata has been around for some time, when exactly does the terrible event occur that leads to decreased supply and increased prices?

Donor cars for SM have been out of production for 10 years now. many NOS parts (including crate motors) are NLA from Mazda Motorsports, whose prices have also risen over the last few years. There's no "terrible event" pushing this, just a decreasing supply & pretty consistent demand for increasingly old cars.

Up here an early NA is $4-5k, super clean, 100k mile garage kept summer car.

What will happen with SM is that it will evolve. MX5 Cup is already in place to take over, and who the heck runs a stock crate motor in Spec? All the race-spec parts are still available, it's the non-race stuff like rear skirts and 1990 ignition keys that are proving more difficult. At least, that's my understanding. What race parts are NLA?

Keep in mind that there were about 50k 1990 Miatas made. Spec Miata might be high profile, but it's really only making a small dent in the numbers. The biggest problem is the fact that the 1990 Miatas are now 14 years older than they were when Spec Miata was formed. That 14 years is what's taking the toll, not a few hundred race cars.

It's like the Dukes of Hazzard and the 1969 Dodge Charger. The TV show didn't really make a big dent in the number of cars out there, but it was such high profile destruction that everyone assumes they did.

The collectors are taking note. There are a few notable sales of cars, mostly super low mileage 1992 yellows, 1993 black/reds and there's a 1991 BRG that got a $25k offer that was refused. But they're still very much the minority of course. Still, those cars that have been in storage for 20 years are finally starting to be worth some money. Right about as much as they were new when you take inflation into account, of course.

I am starting to look at early Miatas as classic cars now, though. It's requiring a bit of a shift of attitude.

In reply to neon4891:

Every single time you post something, it makes me want to say "Hello."

Alan Cesar wrote: In reply to neon4891: Every single time you post something, it makes me want to say "Hello."

Don't worry, that image goes down once I replace neon #2. That might be tomorrow.

Keith Tanner wrote: What will happen with SM is that it will evolve. MX5 Cup is already in place to take over, and who the heck runs a stock crate motor in Spec? All the race-spec parts are still available, it's the non-race stuff like rear skirts and 1990 ignition keys that are proving more difficult. At least, that's my understanding. What race parts are NLA?

I run a crate motor and would do it again if the need came up. Didn't call MM to confirm, but I heard they've been discontinued. Can't buy a new gearbox either.

Since you mentioned sales #'s, I looked them up out of curiosity and found the NC's not that common (from Wiki):

Year (U.S.) Sales

NA introduced

1989 23,052
1990 35,944
1991 31,240
1992 24,964
1993 21,588
1994 21,400
1995 20,174
1996 18,408
1997 17,218
1998 19,845
replaced by NB

1999 17,738
2000 18,299
2001 16,486
2002 14,392
2003 10,920
2004 9,356
2005 9,801
replaced by NC

2006 16,897
2007 15,075
2008 10,977
2009 7,917

2010 6,370

2011 5,674

Total 382,758

Not sure about other regions, but here in the northeast about 30-40% of the grid at any SCCA event is a Miata. Same goes for regional TT clubs with slightly less for track days. Someone else can chime in for autocross, but I bet they're still pretty common there too. All those competition cars eat up a lot of parts.

NC's will never be as dominant because there just aren't as many around.

Not sure which (if any) race parts are NLA, most of that is private labeled aftermarket anyway. What's getting harder to find is OEM parts. I couldn't get a NOS wiring harness for my Miata, or a new MC - just a subbed out rebuild.

The list of NLA factory parts is getting longer as the cars age, & the list of good used cars gets shorter. It hasn't happened overnight but it is happening. Seems like a recipe for higher prices to me.

I can completely believe that parts are going NLA - although at Mazda's prices, I also find it hard to believe that anyone would actually try to buy a complete wiring harness. They've always been eye-wateringly expensive. There's a reason we get so many wiring harness requests in our salvage yard - not because you can't get them from Mazda, but because almost nobody's ever been willing to pay $3000 for one.

But that's part of a car aging. I don't believe racing really has anything to do with that. Just the opposite, the popularity of Spec has probably kept some of those parts (like the front airdam) in production much longer than it would have been otherwise. 30-40% of a grid at a race is impressive, but if you look at it as a percentage of nearly 400,000 cars, it's still just a rounding error.

The NC has never sold the way the earliest cars did, this is true. But they're still not exactly scarce - there are 2/3 as many NCs are there were NBs, and it's a number that's growing. So the racers can sleep at night, there are still good options.

Will prices go up? Some will. Will they go down? On the new cars, definitely, and ratty cars will continue to be worth ratty money. But I go back to my first post - there is no "Miata curve". You have to be a whole lot more definite than that.

I thought Mazda was making a big deal a couple years ago about selling 900,000 Miatas. Maybe that was worldwide.

neon4891 wrote: Don't worry, that image goes down once I replace neon #2. That might be tomorrow.

No worries from me. I like it. Just musing.

Yup, Mazda doesn't just look at the US I seem to recall that around 2000 or so, the UK took over from the US as the biggest market for the car. Don't know where it is now.