Amazon HQ2. Where does it end up?

In reply to Dr Ribs Revere :

That's what I'm looking for! A bit more depth from those with ties to some of these cities would be nice, but it's a great start. Thanks!

I'm convinced they'll end up here in Columbus, Ohio because it'll wreck the city and cause already out of control growth and property value increases to explode even further. We're adding about 30 people a day right now and it's projected to be a million more people by 2050 which is only 32 years away. We've got an enormous tech base - both old and new tech - and one of the biggest universities in America. We have a number of Fortune 500 companies with campuses here and already have Amazon data and distribution centers.

On the plus side I already own some property that would be worth a fortune if they did locate here, but that's only important if we sell - which I have no plans to. My house would probably be worth a couple million eventually if we had them here. (Top school district, close in urban suburb, but with 3.5 acres of land and a big house.)

How to capitalize on it? Well, buying residential properties in desirable urban and suburban (with good schools) areas is one definite way, but that's expensive already. Buying massive plots of undeveloped urban land is another way but that's probably out of any of our reaches.

Dr Ribs Revere said:

Seems like a semi comprehensive list:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/amazon-ignites-fight-for-hq2-here-s-how-20-contenders-stack-up

My biased vote is for Philly, still unsure what the cons section means by stating Philadelphia is lacking in "cultural ammenities"

Agreed.  Whoever wrote that article needs to venture out of NYC once in awhile.  Is Philly equal to NYC for arts?  No, but no city in the US is. But it is far better than most cities when it comes to "culture".  Philly actually beats NYC when it comes to some areas - like historical sites and parks.  While Central Park gets a lot of attention, I wouldn't consider it anywhere equal to Philly parks when it comes to being able to "escape".  There are parts of the Fairmount Park System where you can really feel like you're in the middle of nowhere, despite being within the city limits.  

Dr Ribs Revere said:

Seems like a semi comprehensive list:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/amazon-ignites-fight-for-hq2-here-s-how-20-contenders-stack-up

My biased vote is for Philly, still unsure what the cons section means by stating Philadelphia is lacking in "cultural ammenities"

"Toronto: [...] Cons: Housing prices are high compared to cities like Atlanta. "

LOL no kidding, real estate costs there are almost SF-level stupid, much like NYC. But that will hardly deter them. Big tech companies never expand to places outside of tech hubs. Never. The only question is which one. I almost think the whole HQ competition is half about making the decision not appear to be somewhat of a foregone conclusion restricted to those places, and half to see if any city could convince them to make an unconventional choice with tax incentives, just for giggles.

Putting aside whether it is good for Pittsburgh or not, the Pro's of coming here are: 

1. Very nice and very underutilized airport.  Built as a USAir Hub, it currently handles less than 1/2 the traffic that it was built for.  Some changes would need to be made if traffic doubled (it was built pre-911) but it could handle it. 

2. Lot's of open areas and blighted areas to develop into an Amazon Campus.  Where steel mills and the supporting towns used to be, there is a lot of nothing.  Apologies to those neighborhoods, but there is massive infrastructure and potential that is being underutilized.  

3. In addition to CMU, the #1 computer science school in the world, we have Pitt, Point Park, Chatham, Carlow and about 20 other colleges right in the city. Plus, Penn State, SRU, IUP, Clarion, Allegheny, Grove City and many others are within a few hours drive.  

4. I79 is a major North-South route that connects to others, I-80 is only an hour North of the City and the Turnpike connects New York to Chicago via the 'Burgh. 

5. Rivers.  We have three of them, with plenty of summertime opportunities for boating and other recreation. 

6. We have the great outdoors for hiking, mountain biking, skiing and other activities that the kids like these days. 

7. Housing: it's cheap (now) and diverse and there is lots of it, with plenty of room to build entire new subdivisions.  You want rehabbed warehouse lofts? We have plenty sitting abandoned.  You want a farm?  We can do that.  You want trendy urban-chic?  No problem.  

8. Food.  Pittsburgh is one of the most up-and-coming food cities in the US, with lots of young chefs putting down roots and opening amazing places to eat. 

9. Pitt Race - Yep, we've got a racetrack.  

10. Transportation - Mass transit is tough with all these rivers and mountains, but we have a subway/trolly system and busways and bike paths.  (Depending on where they settle, will be a nightmare or an insane nighttmare, but perhaps the extra $$$ will lead to some infrastructure improvements).

That's what I think, not sure if that jives with the official position, but it has to include some of those things.  The Cons are the usual things, traffic, lack of a pro soccer team, we put fries on our sandwiches, Pinchvalve dominates H-Street, blah blah blah.  

Personally I hope it doesn't come to Indy. They'll just berkeley everything up that we have right. 

also, a good buddy of mine does this on a small scale for a local municipality. I don't know any of these details for each city, but often he makes deals for time periods (ie bring your dealership here and no property tax for first 5 years) or tax trades like we can decrease your liquor license tax if you agree to pay more property tax or whatever.

His does take into account the personal property taxes that a new company brings to the area, and often that more than makes up for the discount given to the company.

If amazon is bringing in 50k jobs at 100K salary, that is now 5,000,000,000 of income tax basis which the city and state can pull from (even at 1% that is 50 million increase in taxes), as well as 50K times the average property tax (say maybe $3,000 each per year?) or $150 million of increase personal property tax per year. total about $200 million in increased personal taxes. So yes, it would make sense to give amazon a pretty significant corporate tax break if they can deliver those kinds of numbers to your municipalities coffers.

Columbus, OH still in the running doesn't surprise me. 

If you're not from the area you might be surprised at how much big retail is HQ'ed there

It just occurred to me that Atlanta may have an edge due to the TV/movie business going on here. Georgia's film industry has exploded over the last few years. If Amazon wants to keep close tabs on their Prime exclusive content production, Atlanta could be the answer.

In reply to slefain :

Film industry is highly mobile though. They will pack up and leave the moment another state makes a better tax offer. Good point about the Prime content production, though. It would help to be located where that sort of industry already exists...

I worked for amazon.   I’ll bet Toronto. H1b visa shut down possibility is a massive threat.  About 1/3-1/2 of those who I worked with were here on an h1b

It's funny, Most of the places that would be a natural fit are already so swamped with people or offer very little advantage to Seattle. 

Austin is a mess as it is and adding a quarter of a million people to the mess will make it even worse. Denver is a joke of a housing market. It's starting to make Seattle look cheap especially in the boulder area and near downtown. 

The only big place that makes sense is Dallas. Put it out in one of the suburbs and let every one drive an hour to work. 

Can't imagine they would want to pay what Los Angeles would cost. 

In reply to 8valve :

I was surprised by that one a bit as well. It would still suffer the same drawbacks of Seattle, traffic seems brutal and logistically, it doesn't help them out at all. Having 2 facilities locked in the same time zone on the left coast  seems less than ideal to me for travel to/from Europe, or even major cities on the East Coast. Shipping/receiving is harder (even though HQ2 is not going to be a freight hub), the time change across the country comes into play, etc. Dealing with construction costs seems prohibitive too when you have to survive earthquakes, wildfires, and mudslides.

In reply to bmw88rider :

I hate to say it, but Indy (Fishers area is where they're pushing) would be a great fit. Lots of housing, centrally located to everywhere, very low tax rates and CoL, a growing tech industry and all that jazz. There's a lot of great stuff here. But I don't want a bunch of Seattle peeps come in and try to make Indy mini-Seatle. 

In reply to Bobcougarzillameister :

I saw multiple proposals for the region, including Fishers area and even Boone County. Boone county doesn't seem to have made the list, as I think it was separate from the official Indy package (that's probably a good thing in your opinion). I don't see Fishers having anything that unique from other cities. It's a nice place, but it's pretty standard suburbia. The proposal that made the most sense to me, was the location of the former GM plant across from the zoo, next to Victory Field. It's plenty big enough, and is located in the heart of downtown in the shadow of the statehouse, which should not be overlooked. Salesforce, Lilly, Anthem, the new Cummins building and the NCAA headquarters are all in that area as well as a ton of hotel space for visitors, and restaurants, museums, and sporting venues to wine/dine clients. Everything would be very walkable with the Monon and The Cultural Trail, and it's 10 minutes from the airport, vs 45 minutes from the NE side if you don't hit traffic.  All of my tech friends live in up and coming areas of downtown. They might move to the suburbs when growing families dictate it, but Fishers doesn't have the appeal to them that downtown Indy does. If you ask me, that's the most unique thing that the Indy area can offer compared to other cities. That location, and it's proximity to everything is something that isn't common in many other candidates.

I wouldn't rule out Toronto. The exchange rate is good for Amazon, there's plenty of rail, air, truck and ship access, no need to worry about H1B restrictions, and I know plenty of young, educated Torontonians who would jump at the chance to work for Amazon.

Dr Ribs Revere said:

Seems like a semi comprehensive list:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-18/amazon-ignites-fight-for-hq2-here-s-how-20-contenders-stack-up

My biased vote is for Philly, still unsure what the cons section means by stating Philadelphia is lacking in "cultural ammenities"

I don't either. Philly has a rather large cultural heritage to be proud of

Detroit/Windsor combo would be a good fit if you can get past the media hate bias and racism to see the real Detroit business opportunities.

New bridge is apparently approved and moving forward so a slick transit option between countries is possible across Detroit River. 

I wish Detroit's deal would have been for zero tax break in exchange for guarantees of more infrastructure and mass transit. Then it would feel good that they came rather than getting a raw deal. But I think the tax break is sizeable.

Quicken, Little Ceasars,  GM, and Penske are already big investors downtown. Gentrification is already at full speed. Amazon would just accelerate the damage. But also could accelerate the mass transit development.

I kind of don't care if it comes to be. Detroit is the butt of jokes and blamed for everything and I have the impression that would get worse if Amazon moved in.

What about one of the 3 DC area locations (DC, NOVA, Montgomery Co. MD)?  Similar to Philly with a port in B'more, rail access, I-95 for up & down the east coast and all the interstates that connect to I-95, but also offers quick access via I-66 to I-81 which opens up western PA, western NY, a bump down to I-40 to get into the midwest plus I-75 access off I-40. I'm not sure how much any of these locations are trying to give away to get the facility or how tax/business friendly they are, but the general location has a lot to offer.  Also, have George Mason, UMD, Georgetown, American University, and probably a couple others I'm forgetting in the general area.

Bezos stopped by my place of work last night and took one of the private rooms for a total of I think four people and security.  Chef made some pretty AWS themed cookies.  But he owns WaPo so there's probably no connection with HQ2 although Va has been mentioned. 

Also for the Bid to Come here to the Atlanta  area the proposed area has been  named Amazon Ga.

Unless they like a lot of taxes, rules and ridiculous real estate costs, I don't see why Los Angeles is even on the final list.  It is a great shipping hub (there is already a huge fullfillment center right next to LA already  though), if you don't count the huge diesel fuel tax they just added!

In reply to aircooled :

Last I remember the la area has about 4-5 big fullfillment centers and about 4-6 smaller specialty ones. I don’t know how many of the smaller fresh ones they closed. But they have also opened more prime now.  I’m sure there are already 10 fullfillment centers in la.  Probably the largest single node in the whole chain save for the Cincinnati Kentucky area.

aircooled said:

Unless they like a lot of taxes, rules and ridiculous real estate costs, I don't see why Los Angeles is even on the final list.  It is a great shipping hub (there is already a huge fullfillment center right next to LA already  though), if you don't count the huge diesel fuel tax they just added!

Remember that Amazon is also a media/film company now, and ridiculous real estate costs are hardly a deterrent to a tech megacorp.