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AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter)
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/12/23 11:53 p.m.

I don't like unidentified E36 M3 being in our airspace, and I even more don't like it being shot down over the Great Lakes. WTF?

also, IBTL.

Jesse Ransom
Jesse Ransom GRM+ Memberand UltimaDork
2/13/23 1:12 a.m.

I wish I had answers for you, but all I've got is wondering whether we've ever had a thread-starter that included its own IBTL... We must've by now, no?

Rons
Rons GRM+ Memberand HalfDork
2/13/23 2:58 a.m.

Like The X Files the truth is out there. The UFOs were there but no one was looking for them so they were hiding in plain sight. 

It's possible that various organizations have launched balloons had them go rogue and not bother telling anyone - sort of sky junk an equivalent to space junk.

Edit: I saw the path of the first one I think they were trying to spy on SkinnyG

Appleseed
Appleseed MegaDork
2/13/23 5:01 a.m.

The Air Force/Space Force/ FBI/CIA/NSA/NRO have learned all they can from them. Encrypted code, frequencies, origins, etc. With nothing more to gain, they can be dispatched with extreme prejudice.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
2/13/23 5:58 a.m.

The first one was shadowed by U2's and awacs craft iirc. The last 3 happened pretty quick. 

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
2/13/23 6:00 a.m.

In reply to Rons :

If you really think they "went rogue" and just happened to fly over most of the biggest and most interesting military installations in the middle of the us I may have some ocean front property to sell you in Indiana. 

Fueled by Caffeine
Fueled by Caffeine MegaDork
2/13/23 7:11 a.m.

https://amp.dw.com/en/modern-spy-satellites-in-an-age-of-space-wars/a-54691887
 

this is an older article but there are lots of satellites out there watching us and everyone else.  Just how it is. 

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
2/13/23 7:21 a.m.

My limited understanding of the current situation is that the Chinese use of these was first discovered from sources outside CONUS (likely meaning HUMINT or SIGINT outside the US). Alerted to the use of these balloons, and as a direct result of the Chinese balloon eventually shot down off SC, NORAD adjusted down some of the filtering used on their radars. These filters normally declutter the picture by filtering out suspected anomalous returns, such as things moving at the same speed as the wind...like balloons. Once those were dialed back, a number of objects popped up, and were promptly investigated. It's a fair bet that there have been many more of these types of objects in years prior. The US certainly experimented with balloons for military and intelligence purposes over the years as well - they are a proven, and fairly cheap, technology.

RevRico
RevRico GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/13/23 7:22 a.m.

Yea, between satellites and internet taps, my money is on preparing for yet another pointless and expensive war we don't need. Like our generals are predicting. Except this time with the country that makes everything we use in our country. 

Beer Baron
Beer Baron MegaDork
2/13/23 7:54 a.m.
RevRico said:

Yea, between satellites and internet taps, my money is on preparing for yet another pointless and expensive war we don't need. Like our generals are predicting. Except this time with the country that makes everything we use in our country. 

NBC got it's hands on a memo... but they're not going to share or link to it anywhere to be able to read with context.

This appears to be:

  • A guy whose job it is to watch out and prepare for potential military threats to the U.S., seeing something that could potentially be a military threat and saying we should prepare for it.
  • Communicating this information in an informal fashion to a bunch of enlisted soldiers to get them fired up to want to train and prepare for a possibility.

There's a non-zero chance of military conflict with China. There is less than a 100% chance of military conflict with China. There are a whole lot of gradation of what constitutes "armed military conflict" in between dignitaries glowering at each other across a conference table, and World War III.

02Pilot
02Pilot PowerDork
2/13/23 8:05 a.m.

In reply to Beer Baron :

Full memo text here.

yupididit
yupididit UltimaDork
2/13/23 8:06 a.m.

In reply to Beer Baron :

2025 os absolutely too soon and avoidable. Current study is saying 2036-2040 with some rather grim outcomes as far as resources and our economy. But, I don't think China should be our immediate concern, I bet by 2036 that even Americans won't believe in "America".

TJL (Forum Supporter)
TJL (Forum Supporter) Dork
2/13/23 8:08 a.m.

In reply to 02Pilot :

anyone else think that memo is completely fabricated? 

It reads like a tactical ninja mall security wrote it as war porn. 
 

do we have higher ranking folk who still use "clip" incorrectly? The m1 garand, which actually used "CLIPS"(enblock clip) was phased out in 1957. 
 

FEBRUARY.
(a) All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualifications will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.

yeah that sounds like some squeaky kid playing video games. 
 

if one of our generals let out a letter like that, i imagine he wouldnt be heard from again. 

Tom Suddard
Tom Suddard GRM+ Memberand Director of Marketing & Digital Assets
2/13/23 8:11 a.m.

Slippery
Slippery GRM+ Memberand PowerDork
2/13/23 8:53 a.m.

porschenut
porschenut HalfDork
2/13/23 9:01 a.m.

We are not going to war with China in 2025, this IMHO is military posturing to keep a fat budget.  Which by the way could be trimmed enough to save social security.  

These balloons are interesting but as usual we are going off in all sorts of directions with a fraction of the real truth.  Does China really need them?  Take a look at your house on google earth, an old commercial satellite provides detail of my back yard, I can tell when a shingle on the roof has ripped off.  So our and their military stuff can probably see when there is a booger hanging out of your nose and with an IR lens see which bedroom(s) are being used at night.  

Think about it, if we were doing it would we use our best tech in a balloon that could be shot down and studied or a satellite that they cannot touch?  My thought is this is a test of our radar capabilities and the low buck approach reeks of North Korea more than China.  

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
2/13/23 9:02 a.m.

Lets no forget the laser light show in Hawaii.

AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter)
AngryCorvair (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/13/23 9:03 a.m.

In reply to porschenut :

I think of it more as a test of our response systems

Duke
Duke MegaDork
2/13/23 9:09 a.m.

If it's an in-house job to give the F-22 some combat kills and shut people up about it, it's backfiring.

 

Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter)
Pete Gossett (Forum Supporter) GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/13/23 9:29 a.m.
stanger_mussle (Supported by GRM undergarments) said:

I heard the pentagon is trying to recruit him to take over their UAP program now. 

Mr_Asa
Mr_Asa UltimaDork
2/13/23 9:37 a.m.
porschenut said:

We are not going to war with China in 2025, this IMHO is military posturing to keep a fat budget.  Which by the way could be trimmed enough to save social security.  

These balloons are interesting but as usual we are going off in all sorts of directions with a fraction of the real truth.  Does China really need them?  Take a look at your house on google earth, an old commercial satellite provides detail of my back yard, I can tell when a shingle on the roof has ripped off.  So our and their military stuff can probably see when there is a booger hanging out of your nose and with an IR lens see which bedroom(s) are being used at night.  

Think about it, if we were doing it would we use our best tech in a balloon that could be shot down and studied or a satellite that they cannot touch?  My thought is this is a test of our radar capabilities and the low buck approach reeks of North Korea more than China.  

The balloons aren't for overhead surveillance; as you said, spy satellites handle that.  There is some evidence to suggest that they are doing SIGINT gathering.

johndej
johndej SuperDork
2/13/23 9:41 a.m.

My guess is folks in the know had been aware of previous balloon/observation/etc efforts in the past. They'd played the typical cat and mouse games back and forth. It just so happens that this one got spotted and the general public did the standard general public hysterics. Now that there are eyes on it, someone decided to take a shot at anything that gets sent over from that direction.

slantvaliant (Forum Supporter)
slantvaliant (Forum Supporter) UltraDork
2/13/23 9:47 a.m.
TJL (Forum Supporter) said:

do we have higher ranking folk who still use "clip" incorrectly? The m1 garand, which actually used "CLIPS"(enblock clip) was phased out in 1957. 
 

FEBRUARY.
(a) All AMC aligned personnel with weapons qualifications will fire a clip into a 7-meter target with the full understanding that unrepentant lethality matters most. Aim for the head.

Considering the imprecise firearms-related language used by officials at all levels in the past 30-40 years, it would not be surprising.  Also, "clips" are still a thing in military ammunition, whether or not they are what the letter-writer meant:

   

Back to blasting UFO's and balloons:  How many of those missiles (AIM-9 Sidewinders?) do we have on hand, anyway?  How many balloons can the Chinese or whoever make and launch?   And where are we on the airborne directed-energy weapons front?

RX Reven'
RX Reven' GRM+ Memberand UltraDork
2/13/23 9:49 a.m.

In reply to johndej :

As I understand it, the three we're tracking now are at commercial aircraft altitudes so if this were the norm, I'd think we'd occasionally be running into them. 

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