California may attempt to ban/limit sales of gas powered vehicles by 2035

I'll start this thread - which will probably end with a lots of whining and a threadlock - by saying I'm really not too surprised this is happening.  When the feds started rolling back CAFE standards, then telling California that they could not set their own standards anymnore, they were itching for a fight.  This seems like a predictable retaliatory response for California

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/23/916209659/california-governor-signs-order-banning-sales-of-new-gasoline-cars-by-2035

https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-09-23/sales-new-gasoline-cars-banned-by-2035-what-you-need-to-know

Honestly, how a car is powered isn't a major concern to me.  Make it light weight, fun to drive, and you could run it on cow farts and pixie dust for all I care.  I know ya'll won't like what I have to say, so I'll go back into the garage and beat on water heaters until they look like datsuns.

I don't live there, have no plans of moving there, and haven't even visited there, so my thoughts are pretty meaningless, but I'm pretty ok with this. 

It seems like CA is probably a good place to force the issue of electric cars(minus the rolling blackouts during the summer). I expect that it will help infrastructure get developed more quickly around the rest of the country. And knowing how much car culture there is out there, I foresee the aftermarket/hotrod EV development scene booming fairly quickly there. 

The California electric grid would implode if everyone went home tonight and started charging their electric car at the same time.

I heard a headline about this on the radio today and though it sounds about right.  

I seem to recall reading that many manufacturers are done designing new Internal Combustion engines.  

With renewable energy becoming increasingly viable, battery technology advancement, etc...electric just makes sense.  

I even heard a talk by a high-up GM guy this year that said they are resolved to go all-electric (toward an end of all-automated way, way off in the future)

Of course it will start with California and of course everyone else will follow suit in time.  

So the question is...will we still be able to road trip our classic gas guzzlers in 2045?  Will we still be able to buy gasoline or are we going to be warring over it and soaking it up with rags as it drips out of wrecks in the wasteland?

I'm looking forward to driving electric.  But I can't see giving up my fleet of junky smokers, either.

This is for new cars only , we can still  keep and drive our old cars.....

Europe and China are on the same path ,  China much sooner.....

I hope in 15 years they have lightweight , quick charging  batteries that are much cheaper so you can have a basic EV for around town for under $10k

I hate laws like this*, but I do love the effects. It forces manufacturers to innovate. For this specific one, I don’t think it matters much in terms of actual impact, it was likely going that direction anyway for most manufacturers.

*With climate change, I think this is necessary, though around here our energy is generated by coal. I’m curious if it ends up being a net benefit or not. I want to see nuclear power.

I say let em. I'm an electric car proponent, mostly, but they'll need to figure out how to triple their electricity production or more. The population is only going to grow, and they seem to struggle to keep up as it is. I'd be happy to see an allowance for out of state gas car purchases, possibly with a reasonable "import" tax. I'll leave that discussion to smarter folks though. 
 

* mtn, totally with you on nuclear. I watched a really good ted talk on it a while back, and I seem to remember Mr. Gates talking about it on his Netflix special. Something I'd like to study up on more if I can ever find the time. 

californiamilleghia said:

I hope in 15 years they have lightweight , quick charging  batteries that are much cheaper so you can have a basic EV for around town for under $10k

Assuming similar inflation to the last 15 years, that's the equivalent of a new $7500 2020 car with very low running costs. An optimistic goal :)

From reading the press release, the proposal is to eliminate the sale of new non-zero emissions vehicles...  don't think they have a snowflakes chance in hell to prohibit the sale of existing vehicles.

Years ago, I moved over the state line into Oregon to be closer to my job in California.  A year later, I was transferred to another school and moved back to CA for the same reason.  California charged me a $65 fee to bring the car I bought in California back into the state.  The state lost that one in court and I received a refund with interest a couple of years later.

I can see the same thing happening again with this.  At what point is a car a 'used car'?  And wouldn't trying to stop me from going to Oregon (or where ever), buying a 'used car', and bringing it back to CA be restraint of trade?

In reply to JoeyM :

I'd be surprised if ICE is still viable by then.  But I doubt I'll be around to see that. 

barefootskater said:

* mtn, totally with you on nuclear....Something I'd like to study up on more if I can ever find the time. 

15 years is a long time in the automotive world.  Would you believe the high HP/low emissions cars we have today back in 2005? My next new or newer car will be electric.  I for one look fowards to our new electron overlords.

ClemSparks said:

I heard a headline about this on the radio today and though it sounds about right.  

I seem to recall reading that many manufacturers are done designing new Internal Combustion engines.  

With renewable energy becoming increasingly viable, battery technology advancement, etc...electric just makes sense.  

I even heard a talk by a high-up GM guy this year that said they are resolved to go all-electric (toward an end of all-automated way, way off in the future)

Of course it will start with California and of course everyone else will follow suit in time.  

So the question is...will we still be able to road trip our classic gas guzzlers in 2045?  Will we still be able to buy gasoline or are we going to be warring over it and soaking it up with rags as it drips out of wrecks in the wasteland?

I'm looking forward to driving electric.  But I can't see giving up my fleet of junky smokers, either.

You'll give up your Smokey Junkers because you want to. Not because anyone will force you.  It may be hard to look 15 years into the future but it's coming no matter what you do.
 

Nobody forced farmers to give up their team of horses  they were glad to once they really understood the benefits. 
 

Same thing with commercial sailing ships. And railroads. Airplanes and every other advancement. 

barefootskater said:

I say let em. I'm an electric car proponent, mostly, but they'll need to figure out how to triple their electricity production or more. The population is only going to grow, and they seem to struggle to keep up as it is. I'd be happy to see an allowance for out of state gas car purchases, possibly with a reasonable "import" tax. I'll leave that discussion to smarter folks though. 
 

* mtn, totally with you on nuclear. I watched a really good ted talk on it a while back, and I seem to remember Mr. Gates talking about it on his Netflix special. Something I'd like to study up on more if I can ever find the time. 

Nuclear?  Maybe. But local solar/ wind  is already starting to achieve benefits of diversified energy production. One of the big ones is reduction in transmission losses. A farmers surplus energy only travels to his immediate neighbors  so the transmission losses is no longer over miles of outdated rural power lines. 
 

Drive through rural areas and start to notice wind generators and solar panels. It's a very long way from achieving everything but it's no longer  unique. 

My opinion is: Why?

They tried this before... didn't work.

The CA electrical generation cannot even handle a HOT DAY.  Seriously, they where doing rolling blackouts when it was 120 in the San Fernando Valley a few weeks ago!!!  One of the prime reason was an over dependence on solar and wind, which, shockingly don't produce as much in the evening (the blackouts where in the evening).  I mean, who could have possibly predicted that!  Hey, just buy dirty power from out of state...

Setting up the infrastructure to support all the charging (charging point and generation) is going to be stupid expensive.  Did I mention CA is letting the license on the only remaining nuke plant (Diablo Canyon, which represents a surprising large percentage of the states power) in CA expire in a few years.  Oh, and there is a mandate to go carbon free also, so.... all the natural gas plants need to go also!  Yeah....

There are nearly 200 utility-scale natural gas–fired power plants in California; together, they provide approximately 39 gigawatts of generation capacity to the grid

You might ask: what about night time?  You know, that thing that happens about half the time (and it's generally not very windy)?  How do they deal with that?  HUGE batteries.  Can you imagine how expensive a battery plant big enough to supply power to the entire state would cost? 

Did I mention, as with many other states, CA is currently racking up HUGE debt because of COVID?

Besides the grid issue, what's the point?  If you can make electric cars that people want to buy, do it.  Forcing them to buy them....  

Hey, I think electric is cool. Love to see the advancements, but I don't see any point in REQUIRING it... well... other than making things even more expensive in CA....

As with most thing coming out of politicians mouths though, this is more about what make the person saying it look good than what is good for the state.  Our last governor liked trains.... we now have a multi billion dollar high speed train being build that is not high speed, and with travel between two small towns... that may be shut down (hopefully) by the massive miss management and corruption involved.  Projected to cost 60 billion to span the state (LA to SF), is now pushing 80 billion to go from Fresno to San Jose (which almost certainly is never going to happen).

In summary:  electric cars?  Yes.   Renewable energy?  Yes.   Mandate 100% of either?  That's just stupid!

In reply to frenchyd :

Even if solar (I'm a big fan) and wind (not so much) make huge advances (likely) you still need to consider times of low/no production and storage. Batteries are dirty. Hugely dirty. Bigly dirty. Also hugely expensive. What would the global environmental impact be to put something like a Prius battery for every house? Would that be enough to run heat overnight? Ac? A refrigerator, tv, freezer, lights, computer, and charge phones? What about all that and charging you're brand new ev so you can sit in traffic on your two hour commute down the 405  

I know the tech will improve, looking forward to it actually. But the cleanest and most efficient answer will still likely be nuclear. Also it's not dependent on a future tech breakthrough. It works now, and we can build it now and hopefully get ahead of demand instead of perpetually trying to catch up. 
 

Back on topic, as far as mandating ev sales, I say boo. I generally dislike laws and government meddling on principle. But, CA can do what they want. I support trying something new. That's how we all learn. That changes if/when they (CA) try to mandate what another state does. Or if/when they need subsidized to afford their brave new plan. It may turn out great though, and spawn a great new market and make big fat dollars. I guess we'll see. 

Let CA do CA things, if they get what they want the neighboring states might get some hellacious deals on no longer legal cars coming across the lines.

frenchyd said:

ClemSparks said:

I heard a headline about this on the radio today and though it sounds about right.  

I seem to recall reading that many manufacturers are done designing new Internal Combustion engines.  

With renewable energy becoming increasingly viable, battery technology advancement, etc...electric just makes sense.  

I even heard a talk by a high-up GM guy this year that said they are resolved to go all-electric (toward an end of all-automated way, way off in the future)

Of course it will start with California and of course everyone else will follow suit in time.  

So the question is...will we still be able to road trip our classic gas guzzlers in 2045?  Will we still be able to buy gasoline or are we going to be warring over it and soaking it up with rags as it drips out of wrecks in the wasteland?

I'm looking forward to driving electric.  But I can't see giving up my fleet of junky smokers, either.

You'll give up your Smokey Junkers because you want to. Not because anyone will force you.  It may be hard to look 15 years into the future but it's coming no matter what you do.
 

Nobody forced farmers to give up their team of horses  they were glad to once they really understood the benefits. 
 

Same thing with commercial sailing ships. And railroads. Airplanes and every other advancement. 

I'm not sure...  I...  What?!

Did you read my post as a "they can pry my gas guzzlers from my cold, dead hands!" type of post?  Because it wasn't intended to be.

My post, in essence was, "Yay, electric.  It figures that CA will lead the charge.  I wonder if I can buy gas for nostalgia after electric is the norm."

Also.  They don't have commercial sailing ships anymore?!  This has a major impact on my tobacco farming plan.

Let's not ignore the fact that California is a dumpster fire.  The state continues to slide into debt.  https://calmatters.org/commentary/dan-walters/2020/07/california-budget-balanced-massive-new-debt/

Companies are fleeing the state's aggressive bureaucracy and high taxes. https://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/news/2020/01/09/your-company-might-be-next-why-the-california.html

And rolling blackouts, or worse, will become the new normal.  https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2020/08/15/why-californias-climate-policies-are-causing-electricity-black-outs/#566b88a41591

California remains a shining example of failed public policy.

In reply to 1988RedT2 :

Thanks for regurgitating the Fox News talking points. We appreciate it. 
 

look. Here's my point about this. Someone has to be first. There are problems associated with being first. They will figure it out. They and we have to.  

If the California anti-carbon emissions people were serious they would be pushing nuclear.  The modern plants are small and can be placed near consumption centers so you don't need mega-plants like you do with conventional to take advantage of economies of scale to reduce unit cost of electricity nor the long transmission lines through forests that give Smokey Bear nightmares every time the winds cause lines to arc into dry timber..  

Modern nuclear is orders of magnitude safer than Three Mile Island nuclear, which was much safer than Chernobyl nuclear anyway.    The only reason its more expensive is multiple interests paid Congress for regulatory laws to price it out of the market plus scare campaigns to set people against it.   And I write this as a person whose income is totally dependent upon the "drill baby drill" philosophy and stand to lose if nuclear becomes big. 

In reply to jharry3 :

Nuclear is about to get safer, smaller, and less expensive too.

As for California, someone needed to go first. As much as we all love cars most of us can see that the current trajectory is unsustainable.

Unfortunately that's all the blood that stone can give up. We're going to need to do the same for planes, boats, energy and plastic production at some point too.

My take? Meh.

I'm 3000 miles away, I don't really care what they do.

I also don't buy new cars. I buy cars that are 10-15 years old. By the time this could be a problem for me, I'll be in my 80s and more worried about not crapping in my pants than what powers my car.

Fueled by Caffeine said:

In reply to 1988RedT2 :

Thanks for regurgitating the Fox News talking points. We appreciate it. 
 

look. Here's my point about this. Someone has to be first. There are problems associated with being first. They will figure it out. They and we have to.  

Fox News?  They lean a good bit too far left for me! 

https://rightwingnewshour.com/fox-news-just-fired-another-right-winger-as-they-slide-further-left/

"There are none so blind as those who will not see." 

I remember when I was a kid in the 80s my dad and uncles getting absolutely LIVID about fuel injection and emissions equipment.  They didn't want no dang diddly dang computers on their cars.  No body would be able to fix them.  All the mechanics would be out of work.  If you broke down 2 hours outside El Paso you couldn't get yourself going with a screwdriver and a rock.   There were many drunken rants at family gatherings about "Cadillac Converters" and "Sensors".  Now my dad thinks adaptive cruise is the most amazing and wonderful thing.

Many of the responses I have seen around the internet on this issue remind me of them (GRM stays MUCH more civil, which is why I love it).

Zero Emission vehicles are coming.  Somebody in the US has to lead the way.  I don't know all the details of their plan but I would have to assume upgrading the infrastructure is part of it, that creates a lot of jobs.    I see a lot of potential in the hydrogen fuel cells.  The next 15 years will be interesting for sure.