I don't follow the collector car market a ton but enough to know that value of certain cars, actually many cars, have gone up a considerable amount in the past few years. Bring a Trailer seems to be a big part of the inflation of these prices, though many here have pointed out recently that it's just more of the same that we used to see at big auction houses, just brought online.
My question to the all-knowing hivemind is, are we in a collector car bubble?
To give a little context: I've been watching Citroen 2CVs go for what I'd consider ever more outlandish prices. I kinda want to buy one for around town but to my mind, I can't get myself to think they're worth more than $12k or so, for a clean-ish example. Apparently they're now trading hands at about double that price.
In reply to Erich :
I think the bubble is already starting to pop. Values on some cars I watch really closely peaked earlier this year and have started falling, albeit slowly.
Year to date, the DOW is down 15.75%, bitcoin is down 51.5%, and the yield on a ten year treasury is 3% so that's minus 5.6% given our raging 8.6% inflation.
I think a lot of people realize that collector cars are an attractive place to store value now.
Having spent quite a bit of time in a 2CV as a kid, I don't understand how anyone would want to willingly subject themselves to that, lol.
They are SLOW, loud and made out of paper. Looking at my friend's mom use the dash mounted shifter was awesome though.
In reply to RX Reven' :
I see the opposite though, the increase in collector car values happened at the same time that the DJIA, crypto, etc increased. I don't think people are using cars as a hedge from other assets depreciating, I think it's the same kind of speculative bidding that caused Bitcoin and Ethereum to shoot way up, albeit to a lesser extent. Bitcoin gained 500% since 2020 prior to the recent collapse, 2CV values did not.
I had a 2cv a couple years ago , cute car , got lots of smiles and was fun to drive to the store on the back streets,
But scary once you got out in modern traffic.....
As for the 2cv, I live and work in a small University city where speeds rarely top 40 mph, and I'm never in a hurry. I think I could make it work.
Numerous economic factors are going to cause a significant drop in personal wealth, and with that will come a significant drop in discretionary purchases, and hence their values. So, just this one time, I'm going to have to agree with Javelin. 
In reply to 1988RedT2 :
Even a broken clock is right twice a day! 
Worse than that, I think that we are in a fiat currency bubble.For 14 years most countries have been printing money as fast as they could with nothing to back it up and praying that nobody would notice. With zero interest rates, everybody is rich.
The money printing accelerated during Covid, and ironically left people with more $$$ in their savings account than they had ever had.
Knowing that paper money could very well be wiped out due to inflation, people are now trading paper money for something, anything, that has tangible value. Some like gold and silver and others prefer art or cars. All the activity moving into tangibles is driving up the prices of everything.
Of course there will be consequences to all this, but not worth discussing as they are inevitable and all just part of how the world works,
Erich said:In reply to RX Reven' :
I see the opposite though, the increase in collector car values happened at the same time that the DJIA, crypto, etc increased. I don't think people are using cars as a hedge from other assets depreciating, I think it's the same kind of speculative bidding that caused Bitcoin and Ethereum to shoot way up, albeit to a lesser extent. Bitcoin gained 500% since 2020 prior to the recent collapse, 2CV values did not.
I think this is the right take. Collector cars were part of the asset bubble and not a store of wealth or something like a value stock that you would use to balance a portfolio.
Future is hard to predict, but if integra type R values get wacked by 50% I'm suddenly a buyer again...
NOHOME said:Worse than that, I think that we are in a fiat currency bubble.For 14 years most countries have been printing money as fast as they could with nothing to back it up and praying that nobody would notice. With zero interest rates, everybody is rich.
The money printing accelerated during Covid, and ironically left people with more $$$ in their savings account than they had ever had.
Knowing that paper money could very well be wiped out due to inflation, people are now trading paper money for something, anything, that has tangible value. Some like gold and silver and others prefer art or cars. All the activity moving into tangibles is driving up the prices of everything.
Of course there will be consequences to all this, but not worth discussing as they are inevitable and all just part of how the world works,
I think you have that part mainly right. Except paper money isn't really used for most high dollar transactions anymore. New house, new car, stocks, bonds. Nobody is shuffling stacks of money around. It's all digital Currency kept in check by accounting. Even day to day stuff is done with cards or IP address transfers.
As far as cars go, as long as there are people comfortable enough to desire the car you are selling. There will be buyers. CitroenFord Model T other more obscure cars will fluctuate the most. Especially in a down market.
Erich said:My question to the all-knowing hivemind is, are we in a collector car bubble?
Prices on many thngs have gone stupid in the last few years. They will come back down to earth like they always do when a super heated economy cools.
Business as usual.
I'm pretty sure everything is a bubble right now.
Because of the massive inflation, all the rich people want to save their wealth into something tangible.
And it will be one of the first to pop because unlike art, a car takes up a lot of room but contrary to a house, it isn't a basic need.
My grandson is hoping that it will pop as all the old boomers who wanted a car they had when they were younger start to age out of the driving pool. He wants to buy a 60's muscle car, and amongst his peers he's the odd man out. Most of them want something from the 90's or later......
I would expect the 55-57 Chevys to be the first indication of that. There are tons of them out there, and very few people who have any real attachment to them. I am not sure if those values are slipping. Pretty much no one has any attachment to Model A's or Dusenbergs either, and they are still worth money.
aircooled said:I would expect the 55-57 Chevys to be the first indication of that. There are tons of them out there, and very few people who have any real attachment to them. I am not sure if those values are slipping. Pretty much no one has any attachment to Model A's or Dusenbergs either, and they are still worth money.
I'm increasingly of the mind that vehicles old enough to be exempt from emissions testing will hold their value reasonably well in a world with less and less flexibility for aftermarket changes to anything newer than 1975.
Peabody said:Erich said:My question to the all-knowing hivemind is, are we in a collector car bubble?
Prices on many thngs have gone stupid in the last few years. They will come back down to earth like they always do when a super heated economy cools.
Business as usual.
When they return to normal? Sorry that's never going to happen.
Cherry picking aside. The price of everything is always on an upward path.
Cars? Since they are making more and more of everything, prices are driven down with age and use. If you bought a 1932 ford. And carefully wrapped it up. It wouldn't be worth as much as it cost originally adjusted for inflation.
The only thing that " Appreciates" is land. US population has almost tripled since my birth while the land hasn't. So three times as many people want a given patch of land. What's worse is premium land such as water front, scenic, desirable Urban is now being chased by those with bigger and bigger assets or ability to buy.
In the event of a recession or even a depression most land owners simply hang onto the property and wait out the cycle.
In reply to STM317 :
That line of thought depends a lot on where you live. Here in PA, pretty much anything pre-OBD2 is emissions-exempt. Maybe not legally from a technical POV, but from a practical POV, that's the way it is. From the State POV, there aren't enough of them still on the road to be worth the logistical expense of testing and keeping track of them.
Otherwise, I generally agree with NOHOME. The "money printing press" has been running full-tilt for so long now, it's going to take some serious pain before the system is corrected. One newsletter I subscribe to predicts about two years of severe pain if they (The Fed) pull the plug on the system now. If they continue down the current path, predictions get harder, but they firmly believe a Venezuela type economic collapse is more likely than not.
Who is right? I don't know... I don't have any inclinations to buy any more cars. If anything, I'll put money into my house and items that might be able to help me be more self-sufficient.
frenchyd said:Peabody said:Erich said:My question to the all-knowing hivemind is, are we in a collector car bubble?
Prices on many thngs have gone stupid in the last few years. They will come back down to earth like they always do when a super heated economy cools.
Business as usual.
When they return to normal? Sorry that's never going to happen.
Cherry picking aside. The price of everything is always on an upward path.
Cars? Since they are making more and more of everything, prices are driven down with age and use. If you bought a 1932 ford. And carefully wrapped it up. It wouldn't be worth as much as it cost originally adjusted for inflation.
The only thing that " Appreciates" is land. US population has almost tripled since my birth while the land hasn't. So three times as many people want a given patch of land. What's worse is premium land such as water front, scenic, desirable Urban is now being chased by those with bigger and bigger assets or ability to buy.
In the event of a recession or even a depression most land owners simply hang onto the property and wait out the cycle.
I guess that depends on the land. I'm sure that houses on the beach in Malibu and condos next to the chairlifts in Aspen never go down in price. On the other hand, have you ever heard of ghost towns?
frenchyd said:Peabody said:Erich said:My question to the all-knowing hivemind is, are we in a collector car bubble?
Prices on many thngs have gone stupid in the last few years. They will come back down to earth like they always do when a super heated economy cools.
Business as usual.
When they return to normal? Sorry that's never going to happen.
I didn't say that.
Collector car prices always, always, always crash in a recession.
And we're going there.
Ian F (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to STM317 :
That line of thought depends a lot on where you live. Here in PA, pretty much anything pre-OBD2 is emissions-exempt. Maybe not legally from a technical POV, but from a practical POV, that's the way it is. From the State POV, there aren't enough of them still on the road to be worth the logistical expense of testing and keeping track of them.
Yeah, but who's going to make/sell parts for those vehicles and risk heavy fines when those parts end up in states where they're not allowed? My state doesn't do any vehicle inspections or emissions testing of any kind, and I still think the older stuff will eventually be about the only stuff where you can play with the (ICE) powertrain. Heck, it's possible to do fully compliant engine swaps, etc in these vehicles that actually make them cleaner than when they were new. But my crystal ball has been a bit hazy recently, so YMMV
In reply to Snowdoggie (Forum Supporter) :
Cherry picking aside. I did say that didn't I?
But even the worst rust belt cities are slowly recovering from the job losses of the 80's and 90's and regained some market value.
Is it a bubble? Man, I don't know. And I keep tabs on the car market. On the surface it certainly looks like a bubble.
OTOH, when you consider what new vehicles cost I think that is also having an effect. The old truck market is ridiculous right now. I follow 60s-80s Ford pickups. They are close to triple what they were 15 years ago. I think the absurd price of new trucks is helping drive that. Not that old trucks are a replacement for a new truck but, if you see a sticker price of $70,000, it's not hard to justify $25,000 for a truck that was a bit over half that a decade earlier.
There is also some bubble aspect, though. I see a lot of folks throwing up vehicles for sale with pie-in-the-sky pricing because of the silly auctions they watch or see online. They may not expect to get their price but figure, why not try? And stupid people who are only casual followers of the market may think, "Well, I saw one sell on B-J for over that, so this must be a good deal!".
Do these cars/trucks actually sell? I like to click on Ebay's completed auctions for whatever vehicles I'm looking at and see what the actual selling prices are. And quite often, they are more realistic numbers than the asking prices I see on FB Marketplace. So, some of it is 'fake news' making the market look higher than it may actually be.
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