Considering a Model 3

In reply to wvumtnbkr :

Model 3 brake regen is strong enough that you can almost drive around down using nothing but the throttle pedal.

I'd try and drive a hard bargain on a Tesla. This is based on observation and research, as in the past Teslas in Vancouver were delivered by transporter to the centre on Dundas. Approximately five weeks ago I discovered a development site in south Vancouver filling up with Teslas (pics to follow). Research led to this https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/3/18291922/tesla-sales-decline-q1-2019-deliveries-production

Slippery said:

Do it!!

you need to buy one with the perfomance package and bring it over for me to drive! 

I'm kinda with Ian F on that, this may be a case for leasing to essentially try out if a Model 3 works for you and maybe buy it at the end of the lease. That said, the latter was problematic when I looked at Model 3s before getting the Alfa as they actually mentioned in the contract that you wouldn't be able to buy "your" car at the end of the lease because they'd all be converted into a fleet of self driving vehicles that would take over the world or something.

Keith, what's the charging infrastructure like where you live in case Janel or you has to take the car for a longer trip? Unfortunately that is still an issue in parts of the country.

I've had some interesting conversations with current and ex-Tesla owners. It seemed that for a lot of them the experience was rather, err, "mixed" in a "there's a good car hiding in there somewhere, but someone forgot to put sealant under the berkeleying windshield when they put the car together". But pretty much all of them seemed to agree that there was nothing else like them available - in a good way, that is.

A lot of the real drivetrain quality problems seemed to have occurred on the Model S and were fixed over time. That said, from some of the stuff I got from actual owners I'm wondering if FCA build quality is better or worse than Tesla. Apparently the jury's still out on that one .

so, how is this off topic? 

BoxheadTim said:

I've had some interesting conversations with current and ex-Tesla owners. It seemed that for a lot of them the experience was rather, err, "mixed" in a "there's a good car hiding in there somewhere, but someone forgot to put sealant under the berkeleying windshield when they put the car together". But pretty much all of them seemed to agree that there was nothing else like them available - in a good way, that is.

 

Not right now, but it will be soon. Rivian will be out with vehicles (Real SUV's and Pickups!) in about a year, Byton about the same timeframe, Fisker is coming back... 

I personally am excited about Rivian. Hopefully it will be all that it looks like. 

Oh, please do it!

I want to live vicariously through you!!

mtn said:

Fisker is coming back...

I would rather give $50,000 to Dr. Evil... I mean, Elon Musk, than give $5 to Fisker.

If it has all wheel drive, get a decent set of winter tires and it should be as capable as anything else.  I have no personal experience with EVs, but will say there are all kinds of them on the road in Minneapolis year round; if they can survive here, they'll work where you live.

Everyone and their dog in Oshawa has a Model 3, and the Model S is pretty common as well, so I doubt winter is a problem for them.

grover said:

so, how is this off topic? 

It's not motorsports :)

Based on what I've seen of the guts, the Model 3 is a generation newer than the S. I can tell you that the paint quality on the 3s in the showroom was spectacular even under fluorescent mall lighting. I know they had trouble at first, but I think the production line is maturing.

I can't find any information on purchase cost at the end of the lease. Just says "residual value plus any amounts remaining due under the lease, taxes, official fees, etc. ", whatever that is. You're roughly $27k in by that time. I get the case for leasing if you want a new car every three years, I'm not so sure it suits my characteristics.

Charging around us is okay. With the 300-ish mile range of the long range Model 3, I can get to Denver without any trouble and I have to go past a couple of Superchargers to get there. Vegas is a longer haul but again, the I15/I70 corridor is pretty well served by Superchargers. Janel occasionally has to go to Durango which would require an overnight recharge, and Durango has 27 chargers of various types scattered around town. Locally, it simply wouldn't be an issue as I'd have charging capability in my garage. And if we do have to take a trip that's not plausible in the EV, well, I have a fine selection of gasoline powered automobiles from which to choose. So that edge case is not a factor. It's the trip to Durango in the winter that is the worst case - cold, through some very hostile terrain and it would need a recharge when it got there. If the Tesla can't pull it off, well, I'll just loan her the big Dodge.

You can choose the level of regen available. Standard is relatively mild, the high setting is basically one-pedal driving. Which is surprisingly difficult to do on the interstate but I guess that's what the enhanced cruise is for.

Rivian is showing some exciting stuff for sure. My concern about them is that they're where Tesla was over a decade ago, a startup with cool tech that has never really run a car factory. They're coming into a much more mature market, but I don't think they're going to revolutionize anything, just offer options. The options they've announced aren't ones that interest me - a huge SUV and a pickup that can't do what I do with my pickup.

In reply to nderwater :

That's not brake regen,  right?  I also thought it was a user selectable thing to set how aggressive you want it.

What is the realistic estimate of useful life before major service (batteries, motors, etc)? Or before obsolescence?

I’d be surprised if it was as long as you GC, so depending on the useful life the monthly cost of ownership may not be too far away from lease.

I don’t know if it’s the same in CO, but in MA you pay sales tax on the monthly payment, so you only pay taxes on the cost of the lease and not total vehicle price. 

No Time said:

What is the realistic estimate of useful life before major service (batteries, motors, etc)? Or before obsolescence?

I’d be surprised if it was as long as you GC, so depending on the useful life the monthly cost of ownership may not be too far away from lease.

I don’t know if it’s the same in CO, but in MA you pay sales tax on the monthly payment, so you only pay taxes on the cost of the lease and not total vehicle price. 

The motor should last forever and is efficient enough that it will never be worth replacing due to technological advances, the battery at least a decade (and could be upgraded with an aftermarket BMS). The infotainment system will be obsolete within a decade and will need to be airgapped soon after Tesla stops updating it. The other computers, similarly to the ECU in an ICE car, should pretty much last forever and will continue to run the car just fine no matter how out-of-date they are.

Obsolescence isn't as big a deal with cars as it is with, say, computers. It's not like the car will lose the ability to run Photoshop, and it can be updated. I drove to work in a 30 year old car today that is well obsolete, but it continues to work :) So does my 7 year old laptop.

Tesla does guarantee the batteries in the Long Range to maintain 70% capacity over 120,000 miles. The motors are guaranteed for 8 years/120k miles. The Model S has shown to have very long battery life based on owner surveys. 

You know what? I'm seventy years old. I love and appreciate all the  comments and arguments here. But I'm going to go with carbon burning cars as long as I'm still driving. And anyway, I intend to keep my '96 Miata and my '98 SVT Contour. I know this isn't Keith's original dilemma, but it's one I'm facing too, and at my age this is how I'm dealing with it. Burn Baby, Burn. (Hey, either you burn it in the tank, or burn it at the electrical power plant).

Please, no hate mail for my "old geezer" mentality. I grew up in the sixties and love cars as I know them. I'll be dead and the next generation of good-intentioned folks will take over. And that's fine. Sorry Keith, please purchase whatever you think is appropriate. But personally, I would buy whatever I wanted.

My Dad who has always been a car car guy (67 Austin healy, 53 Jaguar, 63 Alfa spider, mercedes 190 2.3-16 bmw  733 5speed.  most recently 13 Acura tl with a 6-speed manual which i now have) just got one and i drove it in texas, and i have to say it is a hell of a car.  I have driven porsches and ferarri and nothing like the instant acceleration.  I was a complete skeptic till i drove it.

I say go for it. I know my next car will be an EV. I really like the I-pace personally but I am waiting to see what comes from the large OEM's here over the next few years. 

I just find the model 3 a little cheap feeling for the costs.

No Time said:

What is the realistic estimate of useful life before major service (batteries, motors, etc)? Or before obsolescence?

I’d be surprised if it was as long as you GC, so depending on the useful life the monthly cost of ownership may not be too far away from lease.

I don’t know if it’s the same in CO, but in MA you pay sales tax on the monthly payment, so you only pay taxes on the cost of the lease and not total vehicle price. 

Useful life before major service? There's currently (heh) a Model S from 2014 that was used as a taxi that has over 600,000 miles on it's battery pack that is down to 90% of it's original life- it's the "Tesloop" taxi and routinely is charged to max and drained to single-digits before being suprcharged again. Since any of us wouldn't be hammering the battery day in, day out like that and since the motor is a sealed unit in ATF, there's legitimacy to say you could go 10+ years before needing a replacement pack. And even then, the battery still works- just not as well.

Obsolescence is the bigger detail tho. Tesla is banking on the evolved tech of lithium and their new electrolytes (the reason the new S and X can damn near go 400 miles on a charge, and likely the Roadster) instead of companies like Rivian who are perusing thin film lithium (aka solid state) which has only just become a reality. The motors are also surging forwards by leaps and bounds, with the new 'Raven' series allegedly using some pretty esoteric stuff per Endless-Sphere. I'd say you're not wrong in questioning it, but you might miss out on some awesome stuff right now if you do.

Either way, I think the Model 3 is awesome and the only reason I wouldn't say "buy one!" is because I have to drive one before my mind is made up. Otherwise? If even 50% of the comments from people are correct, it sounds like something I would absolutely love.

Back to Keith's questions.

I have  racer buddy who bought a Chevy Bolt and then also a Model 3 Dual Motor performance.

I think he sees about a 20%reduction in range in coldest periods of relatively mild NC winters.

He also said the Model 3 cannot achieve its 310 mile advertised range, whereas he can significantly exceed the Bolt's ~230 mile advertised range.

He definitely likes the Model 3, and its stupid fast, but I think he considers the Bolt a better executed product.

Oh, and EV's have ruined him for internal combustion street cars.  He's had some really cool stuff over the years, sold off everything (except tow vehicle and race cars), says he really has no desire for an ICE street car anymore.

sevenracer said:

Back to Keith's questions.

 

I have  racer buddy who bought a Chevy Bolt and then also a Model 3 Dual Motor performance.

I think he sees about a 20%reduction in range in coldest periods of relatively mild NC winters.

He also said the Model 3 cannot achieve its 310 mile advertised range, whereas he can significantly exceed the Bolt's ~230 mile advertised range.

 

He definitely likes the Model 3, and its stupid fast, but I think he considers the Bolt a better executed product.

 

Oh, and EV's have ruined him for internal combustion street cars.  He's had some really cool stuff over the years, sold off everything (except tow vehicle and race cars), says he really has no desire for an ICE street car anymore.

 

This would be me if I had the means for either EV. I really liked the i3 I had for 2 days.

Do it. 

I really wanted to hate them but ended up liking them a lot.  Really pimpy fast beasts on the cheap.

Buying out your car after lease is always a bad deal. With EV's it's doubly so. They depreciate like a rock and lease buy back doesn't take into account market price. Chrysler wanted 20k from me if I kept my 500e. They auction for 5. 
 

if you plan on only keeping the car for 5 years the Tesla is super cool. I worry about stuff that plague the S model like failed mcu's that brick the car and all the busted door handles. Sure it funny when under warranty but what about after that. 
batteries are a non issue with an 8yr warranty and they've been proven to last hundreds of thousands of miles. 
 

I still think the best deal for a regular dd is a bmw i3. Get off lease ones all day for 15-20k and at 85k mi, mine has been solid for the last 2 yr.  Just mind the tires and get a spare. 

Based on outdated info from having a Leaf for a couple of years, cold hits range at the battery and at the HVAC. Which is why Leafs have heated seats front and rear and heated steering wheels; try to heat the occupants directly. Unfortunately, that's not entirely satisfying as said occupants...

If you have *plenty* of range beyond what you need (which we did right up until leaving town), it's fantastic. We had a nominal 100 miles of range, but on the freeway that's 60 miles. Subtract some if your charging stations are not right off the freeway. 100-mile trips in winter involved at least one charging stop and rationing the defrost. The plentiful HVAC energy in an ICE car is a luxurious reminder of how much energy they throw away, and how much actual transportation an EV is doing with less actual energy.

A Model 3 is not a Leaf. I think we've stopped considering a Model 3 to replace the Mini, but I'm not totally sure. EVs are SO efficient. My misgivings are mostly around total cost, build quality, and support. And having to use a touch screen to open the glove box (and the other decisions which parallel that).