https://electrek.co/2018/05/11/tesla-giant-battery-australia-reduced-grid-service-cost/
In 6 months their megabattery has captured 55% of the Australian "peak energy demand" market share, at a 90% cost reduction over traditional methods. And it's better (comes on faster) too.
Wow.
We are just tipping the iceberg of all the other usefulness of the tech they have been pioneering in their cars will provide to the world.
The problem is that the car company part will break them if it doesn't start producing returns. Tesla fell hard for the automation trap and found out why older car manufacturers do things the way that they do. Fortunately they appear to have survived it rather than doubling down.
The tech is really cool and they appear to have scaled up the battery production side very well so if all else fails they could likely cut loose the automotive side and focus on the solar/battery side. I'm excited for the solid state battery tech to come to market from either them or Fiskar soon.
Tesla must be using solid state batteries in the Roadster 2.0 and Semi, otherwise the specs they put out are a fantasy (and their prototype Roadster 2.0 that they give rides in has less range than stated).
I'm hoping their photovoltaic shingles hit the consumer market in less than 10 years when I'll need a new roof.
In reply to The0retical : The car producing side of it is perfect bait for a major car company to acquire. * besides cars aren’t his real goal. He wants to go to Mars. The self driving car is here with them and in development with everyone else.
As gearheads we hate the idea! We want the thrill and pleasure of driving while putting up with the burden and drudgery of traffic jams and lousy drivers.
Most people don’t share that view. Self driving can’t arrive too quickly. Besides the old and very young have no transportation options. Not to mention the impaired ( either chemical alcohol or physically impaired )
Self driving cars will solve traffic congestion and road maintenance issues. Instead of 12-15 foot wide lanes for cars to drive on computers can place cars mere inches or less apart. Dividing lanes can be done away with and based on traffic volume 7 lanes made available for North bound and 3 for southbound as traffic demands it can be adjusted.
Road work caused by overloaded trucks etc will be eliminated since one of the required inputs will be load. The same computer system that determines lane direction will also figure out how to close lanes while repairs or maintenance is performed
In reply to frenchyd :
Computer controlled lanes and traffic solutions and all that sounds great and I'm not opposed to the idea, at least not in theory. The problem I see is it will require all cars to be automated, leaving no room for people who can't afford the new tech, or don't like it, or the folks who just like driving. People already can't follow road signs, so imagine the confusion when the same road is different on the morning than in the afternoon. I think it would be almost simpler to build a second road network.
Tesla is an interesting company for sure. We all know electric cars are here to stay. And we all know that the weak link in the equation right now is batteries, from charge time to service life. I don't know where the tech is right now, whats coming next or what the ultimate answers will be, but I am very interested to watch it happen. Whether is comes from Tesla or someone else, I'll be watching.
Tesla is an interesting case study for a number of reasons. They approached the automotive market like a tech startup and have pushed things far and fast. That said, there is a reason that the other major manufacturers are going slow and steady. Tesla is somewhat using their customers as beta testers. There are also issues with support for their vehicles. Parts and service are problematic and tesla basically requires their vehicles to be serviced by them. If you want to use their infrastructure with one that is a salvage, they want you to recertify it (at a cost of $10k), or no supercharging or parts support.
I dont know if they can ramp up production fast enough to keep up with their debts. They keep getting new rounds of investment on hype, but its all got to come due some day and if they dont ramp up in a big way and soon, they are going to have problems.
As far as Automated Vehicles being a magic bullet, NO. It isnt going to make traffic massively better. At least, not until 20 years after a 90% adoption rate (when most of the non-AVs age out of the statistical majority of the motoring public). We are a good 15 years at least from true Level 5 autonomity being a reality. I dont think anyone is doing a L4 beyond a few low speed test cases (limited to under 25mph and geofenced) currently. That last 10% is going to take beyond 90% of the time and effort compared to where we have gotten so far.
In the meantime, we are going to have to deal with increasing numbers of vehicles that have enhanced nannies and aids. The human factors of these cases is going to be something to watch for. There is nothing on the road currently that doesnt rely on the human in the car to take over in a split second to prevent a crash (well some LSV test vehicles, but confuse them and they stop from 25mph max right meow). There are almost infinite variables that need to go into moving beyond that.
frenchyd said:Road work caused by overloaded trucks etc will be eliminated since one of the required inputs will be load.
Most road work could be eliminated if the roads were built better in the first place. Sorry off topic just something that kinda annoys me.
Apexcarver said:Tesla is an interesting case study for a number of reasons. They approached the automotive market like a tech startup and have pushed things far and fast. That said, there is a reason that the other major manufacturers are going slow and steady. Tesla is somewhat using their customers as beta testers. There are also issues with support for their vehicles. Parts and service are problematic and tesla basically requires their vehicles to be serviced by them. If you want to use their infrastructure with one that is a salvage, they want you to recertify it (at a cost of $10k), or no supercharging or parts support.
I dont know if they can ramp up production fast enough to keep up with their debts. They keep getting new rounds of investment on hype, but its all got to come due some day and if they dont ramp up in a big way and soon, they are going to have problems.
As far as Automated Vehicles being a magic bullet, NO. It isnt going to make traffic massively better. At least, not until 20 years after a 90% adoption rate (when most of the non-AVs age out of the statistical majority of the motoring public). We are a good 15 years at least from true Level 5 autonomity being a reality. I dont think anyone is doing a L4 beyond a few low speed test cases (limited to under 25mph and geofenced) currently. That last 10% is going to take beyond 90% of the time and effort compared to where we have gotten so far.
In the meantime, we are going to have to deal with increasing numbers of vehicles that have enhanced nannies and aids. The human factors of these cases is going to be something to watch for. There is nothing on the road currently that doesnt rely on the human in the car to take over in a split second to prevent a crash (well some LSV test vehicles, but confuse them and they stop from 25mph max right meow). There are almost infinite variables that need to go into moving beyond that.
You are right, It’s not going to happen tonight. But Tesla is proving its going to happen.
Change is an inevitable part of life. You can either adapt to the change or be left behind while it changes. Those are your only two choices.
Will Tesla be the leader? Odds are pretty good because a lot of really smart money including every major auto maker is investing in Tesla. Why wouldn’t they? The stock has a promising future while most manufacturers are either closing down production or taking a wait and see attitude.
Please don’t take my opinion as an endorsement. I sold all my stock back in 2008 and thought I was so smart to beat the collapse of the market later that year.
If I’d had real foresight Id have seen the recovery and had over a million in my retirement account by now.
In reply to Duke :
They're available, but the price is something like 4x more expensive than traditional roofing but probably equalish to new roof + solar. I really hope the price comes down in the next few years so I can do the south side of my roof with them.
GameboyRMH said:Tesla must be using solid state batteries in the Roadster 2.0 and Semi, otherwise the specs they put out are a fantasy (and their prototype Roadster 2.0 that they give rides in has less range than stated).
Tesla has two core competencies. The first is marketing and public relations (including grabbing credit for other peoples inventions PV roof shingles which have been around in prototype form since the 90's). The second is raising money. It seems like much of the stuff they actually deliver is late, costs more than projected and has some significant usability or quality shortcoming.
I started out as a fan. My opinion has soured over the last 15 years.
Type Q said:d).Tesla has two core competencies. The first is marketing and public relations (including grabbing credit for other peoples inventions PV roof shingles which have been around in prototype form since the 90's). ....
“Lesser artists borrow; great artists steal.” Igor Stravinsky
Most all inventions and innovations either borrow heavily or outright steal concepts from other places.
The0retical said:In reply to Duke :
They're available, but the price is something like 4x more expensive than traditional roofing but probably equalish to new roof + solar. I really hope the price comes down in the next few years so I can do the south side of my roof with them.
That is their design brief - to be priced at the same point as regular shingles of equivalent lifespan. So that's where I'm hoping they will be in 10 years +/-.
In reply to Type Q :
Key part of your comment is “prototype form.” Tesla brings usable products to market before competitors, so far.
Im hoping my roof lasts another 10 years. Id sign up for a solar roof.
Great in theoritical technology and R&D. Lousy in mass production. Model 3 is a huge problem for the brain child huckster, which could bring him down, and screw millions of stockholders. Really, I personally hope it all turns out well. But at this point financially for stockholders it doesn't look well. I'm glad I don't own Tesla stock.
So, relevant to the premise of this thread, how does this bode for his other ventures?
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