SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
The way the news reports Dougherty Co GA really frustrates me.
I am from there. The population is 87,992. Total deaths as of today are 128. Total confirmed cases is 1629.
That's 0.1%.
Hot spot? Really?
I guess if the media says so...
It's what passes for a hot spot in Georgia - I live in Gwinnett County, where we have about 10 times the population, about the same number of fatalities, and less than double the number of total cases compared to Dougherty. We haven't had any part of Georgia hit anywhere like New York City, thankfully.
MadScientistMatt said:
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:
The way the news reports Dougherty Co GA really frustrates me.
I am from there. The population is 87,992. Total deaths as of today are 128. Total confirmed cases is 1629.
That's 0.1%.
Hot spot? Really?
I guess if the media says so...
It's what passes for a hot spot in Georgia - I live in Gwinnett County, where we have about 10 times the population, about the same number of fatalities, and less than double the number of total cases compared to Dougherty. We haven't had any part of Georgia hit anywhere like New York City, thankfully.
Looking at those number relative to the usual death rate is telling, though. It looks like we had about 0.88% of the US population die in 2019(which seems low to me, unless the life expectancy for anyone born nowadays is over 100). Assuming that is correct, that's about .073% of the population dying each month. The numbers above give about a 0.15% death rate. I'll be generous, and say that is spread out over 3 months. That gives 0.05% of the population of the county dying of Covid-19 dying per month. So, the death rate for Covid-19 in particular for the county is is about 2/3s of the usual death rate for the US. Put another way, if there is no decrease in deaths from other causes (doubtful, but lets assume it for now), you're looking at a 68% increase in deaths over the same time period with Covid-19 than without. I'd call that a hotspot.
Again, this is all based on if my research on the regular death rate is correct, but even if it is off a bit, this is going to have a very noticeable effect on the death rate in the US.
I'm not in favor of shutting down the entire economy (although I think for the most point that has been a strawman argument), but I do think this shows it has a significant enough effect that precautions should definitely be taken. My big opinion, is to wear a mask if you can, and try to be nice to essential workers.
In reply to eastsideTim :
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
You just took a National annual death rate and applied it to the winter months in one of the poorest and unhealthiest counties in the country. It doesn't work that way:
Dougherty Co normally has a 23% higher death rate than that, and there are more deaths in the winter (flu, etc) than other times of the year. That means your calculations are greatly exaggerated.
Yes, there has been an increase. But if this is what a "hot spot" is, it's pretty lame.
My company has over 700 people working in Dougherty County. Zero cases for our workers or their families.
My frustration is that it is used in the media (and in this thread) and by armchair epidemiologists and amateur statisticians all around the country as a terrible horrible messed up thing. "OMG! Don't have a funeral! Looked what happened in that stupid little town in GA! If we open things up, just think of how many people will die!!
Folks, it ain't so bad. Life goes on, even in Dougherty Co GA.
Now excuse me. I have to go to work.
In reply to eastsideTim :
So this happened: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/colorado-gov-pushes-back-against-cdcs-coronavirus-death-counts 24% inflation of the deaths. IF (big if) this was to hold true throughout the country that drops the death rate even lower. 68k with 1.5M confirmed and up to 15M possibly had contact. 4.5% on the confirmed, 0.45% with the estimates.
With the monetization rewards to claim those deaths by hospitals I'd be surprised if it isn't lower.
This whole data war thing is just silly.
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5218897002
one group is inflating the other deflating. But hey people won't listen to it anyways. They've already chosen their narrative and stuck to it. So why try?
Kinda long and I haven't finished listening to it, but there is some interesting info in here about covid and vitamin D levels
Cotton
PowerDork
5/19/20 3:02 p.m.
In reply to SVreX (Forum Supporter) :
Couldn't agree more. I work in Healthcare/IT and it's very frustrating seeing some of the things presented. And yes, don't get me started on all the new armchair experts.
In reply to Fueled by Caffeine :
And Georgia is intentionally rearranging the days of reported cases to make themselves look like a decline. For example, April 25th was inserted into May.
There is a report of a study from South Korea that people who recover from the virus are not contagious and maintain antibodies. There has been some info on this already, but this is another confirmation (link is a bit sparse and is a video link, I suspect more info to come):
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2020-05-19/recovered-patients-may-not-be-contagious-video
Referring to the video above (at the beginning), it is looking like the prison system is very well infected in some (most?) areas. It also looks like the workers there are fairing worse then the inmates. I don't remember where I saw it, but there are more deaths in prison personnel than inmates (clearly there are way more inmates).
There are some very weird unknown variables at work here. Maybe this is true with other virus also and we never noticed?
E.g. 73% infected in Ohio prison:
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/04/20/838943211/73-of-inmates-at-an-ohio-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus
Article on Flu numbers
Not looking to debate this, interpret it however you like.
I didn't realize until reading this and then looking at the cdc website that the seasonal Flu numbers are estimates and not actual counts.
This thread has been running almost 3 months.
I haven't heard of a single person that I know testing positive. I know of a business that was closed down for a few days after someone there apparently tested positive, but that's it.
I haven't missed one day of work.
People around here haven't started wearing masks until recently. It's been harder to avoid crowds since closures have the effect of funneling everyone into the same places, and more people are out during the day instead of at work. Now that some things are opening again it's getting better.
It's been a boring crisis. Not every city is New York City.
In reply to TopNoodles :
Not trying to be snarky here, but how many of the people you know have been tested? I would like to be tested myself, but since I don't have any symptoms that's not likely, at least not anytime soon.
In reply to EastCoastMojo (Forum Supporter) :
I said what I said. Interpret it how you wish.
Few people have been tested. I do know people who tested negative.
I didn't say nobody has had it. Just nobody has been tested and returned positive, or died.
The answer is never. Do not panic. I'm sure this has been mentioned but I generally avoid this thread, and I'm not about to try reading it all.
The whole thing stinks. My county has a population of roughly 150k. Last I checked we had around 50 confirmed cases and 1 fatality. I don't know anyone who has tested positive around here and the only remotely related person to die "from covid" actually died in surgery. Too much money in the mix to trust any reported numbers.
The whole thing stinks. Stinks of politics. Stinks of whore media. Stinks of panic and fear.
Don't panic. Ever. And take every story and statistic with a heap of skepticism. Thanks GRM, for fostering this place where real civil discussion can take place. That's my piece, peace.
In reply to TopNoodles :
One friend lost her mother to the disease. Another friends father was on a ventilator due to Covid-19
My wife works at an assisted living center that lost 13 patients to it by mid April. I don't have a current count.
There have also been at least 5 positive cases at work.
I am a few miles from Los Angeles county. I know no one who was sick or died. I may have had it myself in January (after traveling to a hot spot), and didn't spread it to anyone (that showed symptoms at least). I know someone who knows someone who ended up on a ventilator (elderly). As far as I know only one person in my company offices (800 ish people) tested positive. I have only heard of a handful of cases in the entire company (country wide, 20,000 ish customer facing employees, mostly younger).
So yes, the actual impact to most is minor or non-existent. One of the prime reason it's so hard to get some to follow simple, considerate precautions.
It sucks that people aren't seeing the lack of people with COVID-19 in their circles as a success.
I'm dreading a second wave hitting right around when my unemployment runs out.
It occurs to me that if this whole thing is just being overblown by the media and people with a political agenda, then the health departments of Florida and Georgia wouldn't find a reason to fudge the numbers.
In reply to red_stapler :
It will be interesting to see what happens as things start to open up.
While the sampling probably could have been better to more accurately represent the general population, a recent round of antibody testing in Boston showed the presence of antibodies in approx 10% of those tested.
That leaves a lot of people susceptible to infection in a city that on a pre-Covid day would see its population more than double during the day due to commuters.
Boston antibody testing
Enough hysteria about Georgia. The state population is about 10.6 million people. Here are the latest COVID numbers the NYT is reporting:
A rapid rise peaking in early April with a gradual decline in new cases in the five weeks since, even with the state reopening. Will that trend continue? No idea. But I can understand why many people are anxious to get back to work.
P.S. to Javelin -- this NYT graph is not subject to the data shenanigans that this week's infamous Georgia DHP graph included.
In reply to nderwater :
Except the part where they manipulated the days with things like putting April 25th after May 5th.
red_stapler said:
It sucks that people aren't seeing the lack of people with COVID-19 in their circles as a success.
Agreeing aggressively. I believe this is how history will view these actions.
In reply to Javelin (Forum Supporter) :
Manipulated data seems to be the norm in an awful lot of things COVID related, including in this thread.
I'm not excusing it.
Looks like Washington State is having issues too:
Cases in WA may be higher than reported
