OK, I figured it out (it's the Small function that allows you to find the nth smallest item in a range). Updated results posted. It's not quite as close at the top now, but it does pull the HC's down a bit.
Here is the chart used to figure it out (so you can double check to make sure I am not doing something silly). As you can see, it's essentially Dean's lack of a win that puts him into 3rd. Brick, Darwin and Drillin are all out of drops now though.
