End of the line for combustion engines?

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

A google search will net a number of vendors that sell diy-EV components.  As mentioned, there are simply too many variables within each vehicle to make a drop-in kit viable or even possible. 

If I were to convert an old Volvo to EV power, there are a few things I'd do for better packaging. First, I'd figure out a way to mid-mount the motor close to the rear axle, rather than wasting space and efficiency with a drive shaft.  Ideally, I'd fit the rear suspension/axle assembly from a Lincoln LS (same 5x108 bolt pattern as later Volvos - simple hub/spindle swap on older models).  This would leave the engine bay more open for batteries.

The last time I looked, figure on at least a $10K budget for the EV components and batteries for the range/power you're asking for. Probably more.  And that doesn't account for other items like electric heat and suspension tweaks due to the heavier weight, which might also make P/S a necessity.

There's a reason why EV conversions are rare in general and well-done examples even more so.

After typing all that, I recall Jay Leno has been slowly "resto-modding" one of his original EV's from the teens with Leaf components.  However, I think due to his situation, he is getting new parts directly from Nissan. I think he last talked about it in one of his restoration videos a year or so ago.

Tony Sestito said:

I like EV's. I like that they have the potential to be simple, cheap transportation while cutting down on the use of oil and gas and maybe balancing industrial waste with environmental awareness a little better than it is now. And for the record, the fastest vehicle I've driven BY FAR is a Tesla Model S P90D. It's brain-scrambling fast!

BUT...

For me, owning an EV isn't ideal. There are many reasons for that.*

-I have a long commute (70-80mi round trip, depending on route) and we don't have chargers at work, even though the CEO and another person in upper management both drive Tesla Model S's (they each live just a few miles from work). With what's out there now, range may be an issue. We don't have chargers at work, and outfitting the lot for a charger in each space would adversely affect our bottom line, I'm sure. 

-I live in the Northeast. Winter and storms can easily knock out the grid, and with the way weather has been trending, storms are getting more powerful and widespread every year. How am I going to charge my dead car if I need to get somewhere in an emergency? Would you have to buy a ton of backup batteries or something?

-Also, we have two daily drivers, so that means two charging stations will need to be installed at home. I can't imagine how much that's going to cost out of pocket. 

-I like driving. I like the connection between man and machine, even on my daily driver. Even though that Tesla I drove was cool (trust me, it was VERY cool), it felt somewhat sterile and disconnected. It's like you are suggesting to the car what you want it to do and it does it with variable input ranging from "you're the captain of this ship" to "I'm an autonomous pod that will get you there and back". One can argue that all the assists that come in modern cars have the same effect, and you'd be right, but it feels even more pronounced in the full-electric cars. 

-The fun ones are EXPENSIVE. The P90D I drove was well over $100k. Where are the fun, affordable ones? 

That said, a hybrid would be the way to go for me if I was forced to abandon a full ICE car. Range is a lot better, and you get the benefit of cutting down on gasoline usage and cheaper operating costs. 

 

l*All of this is relative and based on what we know RIGHT NOW. This could all change. 10-15 years from now, we could have battery packs the size of a cell phone that have 1000mi range and charge in 5 minutes. Who knows! 

LP generators are available as back up.  No matter how bad the storm has is available because it's underground. Run the house and charge up your car.  

Wind and solar are also available and viable.  Local company does over a billion dollars a year installing them both for local businesses and private individuals.  Their latest venture is standby battery back up

volvoclearinghouse said:

The trick is to drive the car until just a few miles before the battery pack fails, and then sell it.  

EV batteries are much more durable than car batteries.  It's unlikely you won't get a decade or more from them

frenchyd said:

volvoclearinghouse said:

The trick is to drive the car until just a few miles before the battery pack fails, and then sell it.  

EV batteries are much more durable than car batteries.  It's unlikely you won't get a decade or more from them

I know that.  However, I was doing the math last night in my head, and assuming a 12 year life on the batteries, that works out to around $2500/ yr.

frenchyd said:

In reply to GameboyRMH : I can't believe that GM and Ford are that much more reliable than Nissan 

when I was seriously looking at  Chevy Volt I couldn't find anyone who'd had a bad experience with one.  

This magazine gave a good report on what they were like and I suspect they used it a lot harder than average  

 

I can't find anyone who has driven a Volt who doesn't want another one.  I'm not 100% convinced GM can mantain the kind of quality that they built into the early Volts (becasue GM) but if they can, they've got a winner. I fill up on gas every 600-1000 miles with my usual crazy driving schedule and we're on track to put over 20K miles on the car in our first year. The car is absurdly cheap to own and run, is nearly as comfortable as the R63 in normal driving, and is fun to autocross (not fast, but fun). I think the hardest part of selling the Volt is that GM is trying to sell it by with the basic line "you'll never notice that it's different than a normal car!" which makes anyone wonder why they want to buy it then. I think this is the future for most people. I'd LOVE to try and live with a the new Chrysler minivan with the plug in hybrid drivetrain.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

How do you figure that? $2500.00 X 12=  $30,000 for batteries?   How expensive is your electricity compared to the cost of gasoline?  

When I was doing the math  my savings on gasoline almost made the payment on a 2 year old Volt.  Now granted Minnesota has modest electric rates which helps and some places cost more.  But the cost of gasoline has in my lifetime risen faster than electricity

frenchyd said:

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

How do you figure that? $2500.00 X 12=  $30,000 for batteries?   How expensive is your electricity compared to the cost of gasoline?  

When I was doing the math  my savings on gasoline almost made the payment on a 2 year old Volt.  Now granted Minnesota has modest electric rates which helps and some places cost more.  But the cost of gasoline has in my lifetime risen faster than electricit

Sorry, I was in a rush and put together an incomplete thought.  My math was if the car was 30k, and batteries last 12 years, then that works out to 2500/yr, assuming the car is basically a brick after 12 years.  Of course batteries can be replaced, but who is really going to want a 12-year old e-car...assuming the same type of mentality that's going into phones that now need to be replaced every 2 years.  

Speaking of which...holy hell, how the hell did we collectively get suckered itno _that_ business model?  My first house had a rotary phone in it that was at least 3o years old.  

The Volt is a neat car, don't get me wrong, but part of the allure of an e-car is not having to worry about the normal maintenance associated with the ICE.  If the batteries come with a gas engine as part of the package, that's actually a negative for me.  And I'd need something that could easily deal with 100 miles/ day between charges- comfortably, with A/C &/or heat running.

In reply to volvoclearinghouse : Things change, that's a fact of life. So what works today may not work in the future. 

We are approaching a perfect storm of events forcing change. Exactly what the changes are would require someone other than myself.

Baby boomers are retiring,  obstructions to immigrants coming into America to fill those jobs is nearing a record high.  The economy has steadily improved for the past 7 years.  

That means workers are going to be in great demand.  

Companies by their nature hate to increase wages.  They prefer to give perks and loyalty rewards rather than high wages.  

Health care costs are getting too high to be affordable even for companies.  So less expensive approaches will be taken.  

Free electrical charges for employees will become more and more common.  They already have electricity at the light poles in the parking lots  next will come outlets.  

In fact up here in the frozen tundra of Minnesota we've long been Abe to plug out cars in so they will start in the sub-Zero temps we get.  

While I appreciate a pure EV. I'd prefer the plug in hybrid that will go 50 miles on a charge.  Sure I might have to change the oil once a year or so,  

however,  you can get the 200 mile range Bolt if you prefer

In reply to frenchyd :

The scope and breadth of what you describe is way beyond the discussion here.  But I don't see a free 8 hour charge up of batteries in an EV as anything remotely comparable to a health plan.  I pay $400/mo as my portion of employer-provided health care, for my family (and my employer's portion of it is even higher).  A free EV charge up might be worth $2 a day or $40 a month.  That's peanuts in comparison.  Not that it isn't a perk, but it's still peanuts.  Most folks' needs can be met with a commuter car that can make 60 miles a day round trip.  No need to charge at work.  

I've long been a proponent of divorcing health insurance from employment, though.  While I don't see single payer/ govt funded as the solution, I think we ought to be able to buy health insurance like we do car insurance.  Tying it to who we work for is asinine and inefficient.  Give me the money my employer pays for it, let me chip in my own money, make it tax-deductible, and let me chose from whoever wants to sell me a plan at whatever cost/ coverage I choose.  

Stuff may change, and I'm not averse to that, but I also don't think we ought to think of all change as necessarily "good".  And I don't know what industry you're talking about with stagnant wages, but next year my salary will be almost triple what it was at my first job in this field, 18 years ago.  Adjusted for inflation, that's still a pretty decent bump.  

volvoclearinghouse said:

 

Speaking of which...holy hell, how the hell did we collectively get suckered itno _that_ business model?  My first house had a rotary phone in it that was at least 3o years old.  

Bloatware. Our phones get constantly "upgraded" by the carrier to the point where they are barely usable. I carried around a Samsung Galaxy 4 mini for years until Sprint slowly bricked it by constantly upgrading the OS with more and more junk. I imagine that my S7 edge will be that way in a few years too.

Of course there always those that want the newest, greatest, best stuff and upgrade their phones every generation, just like people who lease cars and get a new one ever 2 years

In reply to mad_machine :

Indeed.  I've noticed that my 15 year old desktop at home, which runs Windows 98, is about as quick as my wife's Window's 10 laptop.  The desktop has no internet connection- it's the "secure, unhackable" utility box.  

My Blackberry 10 has been getting progressively slower and laggier.  I think I do have it set to automatic upgrades on the software.  Should probably just shut that off...

In reply to volvoclearinghouse :

I am not sure your blackberry is getting updates...

In reply to volvoclearinghouse : complex subject and we can easily wander into politics which as I understand it is a no- no  

my point is that you may pay $400 a month for your healthcare your employer is paying much more. In addition to his contribution he has administration costs which depending on the size of the company could amount to a serious addition to his bottom line.  

Americans spend 2 to three times what the rest of the industrial world does. Since we are no where near the top of most medical standards that is a lousy deal.  

Bottom line?  Why not look at other countries to see what they do that reduces their costs while improving healthcare and copy that? 

Back to your point, a company would love to shed its healthcare costs  but realizes most employees would see that as a pay cut.  By switching to less costly benefits they can reduce costs while retaining worker loyalty.  So yeh, free charging maybe with free daycare and free lunch-  or a free. Company car for commuting,  who knows exactly what  will be used to retain good employees? 

I sure agree that not all changes are good! The market place will decide that not you or I. 

I mentioned that earlier. "the market place will decide".   There have been EV vehicles discontinued because they didn't sell. Ford will not bring the '18 Fiesta here because of poor sales, instead they are bringing  a hybrid.

 The present trend to trucks and SUV's are what is selling.   Seems people are not too concerned about the cost.   Of gasoline.

In reply to iceracer :but as has been pointed out things change.  Last time gas got expensive people paid silly prices for cars that got good mileage.  

EVs and plug in Hybrids are selling at extremely modest prices right now. Those who pick one up will feel pretty smart if price of gas goes north.  If not they will have very low costs of ownership

mad_machine said:

volvoclearinghouse said:

 

Speaking of which...holy hell, how the hell did we collectively get suckered itno _that_ business model?  My first house had a rotary phone in it that was at least 3o years old.  

Bloatware. Our phones get constantly "upgraded" by the carrier to the point where they are barely usable. I carried around a Samsung Galaxy 4 mini for years until Sprint slowly bricked it by constantly upgrading the OS with more and more junk. I imagine that my S7 edge will be that way in a few years too.

Of course there always those that want the newest, greatest, best stuff and upgrade their phones every generation, just like people who lease cars and get a new one ever 2 years

As I’ve said things change.  Ownership of cars will become less and less desirable as they change.   Just like phone we will   “Lease” them because desired improvements will make older ones less desirable.  Especially as driverless cars become the norm.  It won’t sit around in your garage depreciating unused.  Instead it will retreat someplace to be charged, serviced, or updated.  

As you get up you’ll press the car button and receive notification 3.2 minutes away.  Just time for your fully automatic coffee maker to pour you a go cup of your favorite blend. 

Ride sharing will further reduce commuting costs to the point where your daily cup of coffee will be more expensive than car ownership. 

Cars on the freeway will be inches away. From each other at two or three times current speed limits.  They could be bumper to bumper but we as occupants took a while to adjust to this close proximity.  The computer is grumbling under its “breath” about wasted space but patiently waits for us to catch up with electrons. 

I was never much of a hybrid fan because they were all so boring, but I am a convert after living with my gfs volt for about a year. The instant torrque is downright fun and its not fast but its quick enough to surprise people and eerily quiet, so when you blow by someone and make no noise you always get a weird look.

And it is super cheap to run

As alluded to elsewhere in this post, I love the packaging of fully electric vehicles.  As a tall person with a tall family, the best seating arrangements I have found have all been in EVs.  The Tesla model X is an excellent example.  The model S does excellent as well.  If it wasn't for the short wheelbase the i3 would be very impressive, and the front seat is great but the back is lacking.  The Bolt also looks promising as it is a compact with mid-size interior room.

I figured the GRM crew would love EV's.  Loads of off the line torque.

 

In reply to FlightService :

I think most of this place, myself included, are finally starting to see reliability come up and the price come down to where we feel it should be for EVs to play in the mass market. I loved the idea of the original Leaf but I couldn't deal with the chance that I could lose a not inconsequential amount of the battery life every year and be facing down a $5k to $10k replacement prior to 100,000 miles. Mass market ICE cars very rarely require that kind of maintenance commitment. You still have inspections, tires, brakes, and suspension on EVs so you're basically saying every few years you need to replace the equivalent of an ICE motor (unless you own an R63.) That's a tough pill to swallow to save some gas.

EV battery tech is quite a bit better now so I'd expect to get 10 years out of a battery pack and I could deal with that hit since I'd be looking to get rid of it anyway. I think the most interesting thing has been the way that people now think about how they'd use an electric car and how transportation fits into our lives. There's some actual thought about how much we drive and go about our days rather than just hopping in and going.

In reply to The0retical :

You are absolutely right.  That's the same way I viewed it.

Except, it was stinkin thinkin....

It only considers one side of the equation.  If you only consider the expense side of the equation (like I did, and so many of us), EV's are a big lose, because of the financial commitment for future battery replacement.  However, we also need to consider the technology growth side of the equation:

Leafs came out in 2011.  Many of us didn't buy them because of range and the potential battery issues. But a $5K replacement for equal performance within 100,000 miles didn't actually happen for most of them.  In 2015, Nissan made a statement that only 0.01% of batteries produced since 2010 had to be replaced because of failures.  

What actually happened was:

- Very few batteries were replaced.

- Technology changed, and the replacement batteries were superior technology to the originals.

- Nissan has been offering deep discounts on battery replacement.  Actual out of pocket costs are well under $2K- Usually more like $1500 or less.

- The cost of the fuel burned and oil changes in an ICE over 100,000 miles would have far exceeded the cost of battery replacement.

So, I was wrong.  You were too.  The math of considering $5k replacement before 100,000 miles was stinkin thinkin. 

In reply to SVreX :

That's fair. I didn't know what the actual failure rate was of the batteries and it is wholly possible that the problem was blown out of proportion by the coverage and vocal few or the few owners that don't feel they were getting a fair shake when the capacity started to degrade. No one ever writes a front page article about how uneventful ownership has been and I haven't exactly gone looking for that info since I haven't been in the market lately. Tom's statement that his had less than 30k but the battery had been replaced tends act as a confirmation bias however.

Recent references to the subject say the cost is 5500 plus 3 hours of install, so figure about $6k for a new battery pack which was unaffected by the degradation issue for the .01% (again that's a really good reliability rate.) That gives another 5 years and 60k miles against capacity loss. Again not terrible.

Now for the math. I'm consuming something like 200 dollars a month in gas and an oil change every 4 months in the MS3. That leaves the break even point for a new battery pack at the outset at around 28 months, not factoring in electric, in just consumables which isn't awful. The problem is that the next 2.25 years would basically go to saving for a new battery pack leaving about 6 months of actual reduced cost assuming a pessimistic severe degradation at just beyond the warranty. So it's gravy if it holds out, and break even annoying if it doesn't. Not a factor with new but buying another car to save money never makes sense.

As I've stated before we've made it to the capacity break point for me so my next car is highly likely to be an EV but something needs to die or break in half first.

In reply to The0retical :almost a decade ago I checked with Ford’s local district on the rate of battery failure in their Hybrids.  At that point Ford had Hybrids out for 10 years.  In those 10 years there had been no warranty replacements 8 new batteries sold but all of them were due to accident damage.  

If I remember correctly that was based on a population of 22,000 some odd number of hybrid vehicles in the district.

I don’t know national numbers but I’d be willing to bet it’s really trivial.  

In reply to frenchyd :

That's pretty good. I'm a bit of a pessimist by nature so I just sort of assume that once first or second gen tech is out of warranty it will launch into a death spiral. Hybrids have been around for a while and EV's, the Bolt specifically, are definitely up there on the compare no matter what list when I do go looking in then next few years.

I'm really looking forward to the next few years of the EV's evolution.

In reply to The0retical :

I tend to be more optimistic the Marketplace will fill a vacuum if there is money to be made.  Assuming enough cars have been sold, "enough" being something of a vague number. Comparing to the classic car world, a roughly 50,000 Volvo 1800 models were built between 1961 and 1973.  At best, maybe half survive (probably much less), and yet there is a good aftermarket supply chain for these cars despite the fairly limited market.  According to Wiki, well over 200K Leafs have been sold since 2010.  Over 100K in the US alone.  As these cars go out of warranty, I feel reasonably confident the aftermarket will fill any required voids in order to keep them on the road.