How long will the 996 remain affordable? When will the dream of an affordable 911 finally die?

The Porsche 911 has and will always be my favorite car.  I owned a 1978 911SC that I bought with 33K original miles back in 2009 for $17K - how prices have changed since then!  My dream is to own another 911, and these days the only one left that's affordable is the often derided 996.  I know they have their issues but I'm perfectly fine with one and have set it as my realistic dream car, and once I buy a house in a year or so I plan on saving up and getting a 996.  For years I've watched ebay and faceblargh marketplace and craigslist and marveled at these cars that could be purchased in great shape with 60-80k miles, regular maintenance and in some cases with an improved IMS bearing already installed for less than $20K.  However, just recently I've seen the prices starting to increase, and a quick google search shows me that prices are starting to go back up now.  I guess all good things must come to an end, as the saying goes.  Fingers crossed within two years I'll still be able to live the dream and be a P-car owner again.

I know used car prices (and house prices, too) have gone a bit insane during the covid pandemic.  Have these cars increased a lot where you live?  Do you think my dream of a sub-$20K 996 in good shape will still be realistic in two years?  Or are we starting to see the end of the last affordable 911?  My guess/hope is that I'll still be able to find one but it'll be a wide search and I'll need GRM's help and have to do a fly and drive.

I think the 996 is seeing an uptick due to pandemic pricing. They're solidly around $20k, +$10k/-$5k tolerance. They're certainly not on the spectrum of "affordable" (given the fact that it's 2 decades old and being that price) to me, but it's certainly affordable for a P-car. I think you will have to do a fly-n-drive, as they're either getting crashed, stored for the next 20+ years so it'll be a real classic with low miles, or just kept for personal enjoyment longer than normal. 

I don't think the pricing will change any time soon.

Could be pandemic pricing, could be they're just starting to go up, hard to tell at this point. Certainly as they age people will *think* they're more valuable and list them for higher prices, even if they don't actually sell at those prices. Which makes it hard to tell what the market is actually doing.

My advice with porsche stuff (or really anything) if there's any hint of real appreciation happening is "if you can't afford it now you'll never be able to afford it in the future so just get it now if you really want it." But...to immediately contradict that, I wouldn't recommend buying any used car right now unless you know you're getting a good deal on it (an actual good deal, not a pandemic pricing good deal).

Honestly, I think the answer to this is probably no.  As a recent 996 owner and seller, I don't think you will find them for less than $20k in good shape in two years.  You may find them less than $20k needing lots of maintenance to be made current.  They are amazing cars, but there are lots of maintenance gotchas that all cost significant money.  I sold my 996 so I could play with other cars and do a full engine out maintenance on my 986.  Honestly it'd have made more sense to spend the money on the 996 and sell the 986, but I really love having a convertible around.  Engine out maintenance costs the same for both cars and one sells for significantly more. 

If your not buying the house for a few years buy the 911 NOW.  They are either going to do what you expect and well cared for examples will appreciate, or they will stay around $20k.  So either way you have an asset that appreciates that you can sell when you need $25k for the house or they don't appreciate and you are out maintenance to have owned a 911 for however long you keep it.  

In reply to nocones :

We're saving for a house currently.  The goal is to get one before next March.  As soon as the house is purchased, I'll start saving and looking for a 996.  

All this being said, I actually found one for $10K.  Mechanically sound but the guy said it needs a paint job (looked okay in pictures) so he started removing windows to prep it.  Got tired of it so now he's selling it.

In reply to nocones :

The ones that appreciate though are ones that are parked at the top of a private driveway or inside a garage. Not in the communal parking lot or street parked.  Wear and tear on one parked in a public setting is honestly more likely to make it much closer to a break even type proposition. (Before factoring in insurance/maintenance/repair expenditures) still not a terrible proposition, but the capital could be utilized elsewhere during the medium term time of ownership. 

The elephant in the room particularly with regards to non turbo 996s is when new EVs come to market that exceed their straight line performance capabilities and cost the same. The reason why this affects the 996 more than other 911 generations, is we all know and appreciate that nothing will be as visceral and engaging as an air-cooled 911 even if it's twice as fast, whether in a straight line or on track. And later generations are visually more pleasing in addition to performance and reliability advantages. True the EVs won't be as engaging as a 996 nor will they likely match it on a road course, but until 996s begin getting used up on track like NA miatas, their speculative market remains more of a potential balloon then other 911 generations. 

Your ability to afford a 996 isn't just dependent on 996 prices, it's also a function of your earnings and savings potential. This is good news because you can't control prices, but you do have some control over what you make and how much you save. 

 Just concentrate on increasing how much you earn and how much you save and see where things are in 2 years.

In reply to captdownshift (Forum Supporter) :

Also the elephant in the room that I mention, honestly is likely to assist you in being able to purchase one in four to six years and at that time I would not hesitate to encourage you to purchase one as you're looking to purchase for ownership and enjoyment not as an investment. 

The pending kid, and potentially a house on top of that are going to take up a whole lot of time and money that you might otherwise spend on a 2 seat sports car FYI. Opportunities to actually use it might get pretty scarce even if you can afford one in a year or two.

The only way I see prices really dropping are if there's a major shift to something like EVs that makes owning an ICE in general undesirable or untenable to the masses.

This would be a sort of inbetween car - it wouldn't be a daily driver or a garage queen, but a bit of both.  Something I took out on the weekends or maybe to an autocross and just enjoyed.  Maybe even a track day and a nice BBS wheel upgrade eventually, or a few GT3 suspension parts (for example).  Whatever the use, it is a car I plan on keeping for a very long time - while many would balk at the thought of keeping a 996 for several decades, I'm just being practical here in terms of prices.  I am dead set on owning another 911, and once I get my hands on one again I plan on keeping it for many years.

Also, I'm on the phone with a realtor, as we just found a crazy good deal on a house.  I know not to get my hopes up too much in this crazy house market we're in, but this one would check all the boxes - safe location, great schools, garage (only 1 car garage but whatever), nice kitchen, good commute to work, for a super low price.  Hard to find those deals anymore.

911s are going to continue to depreciate unless you buy a sought-after variant in amazing condition.  C4S or Turbo, or a base car in an interesting color and outstanding condition.  Higher-mileage 996s are going to stay flat or depreciate and cost a fortune in maintenance.  

The IMS bearing is the tip of the iceberg of potential issues with these cars.  There are a lot of things that just don't tolerate age, miles, or exposure -- specifically anything made out of rubber, plastic, or foam.  

If you're a perfectionist, a cheap 996 will frustrate and subsequently bankrupt you.   

Edit:  Good luck with the potential home purchase!  Having a designated garage bay gets you one step closer to filling it with the car you want.

It's not my thing, but I think the idea of Tesla swaps will continue to drive the prices of even the lowliest Porsches upward. 

For a sportscar that is often used for short trips, it makes perfect sense. Add that to the fact that finding your way out of an engine failure can be prohibitively expensive, it looks like a good way to keep desirable old cars alive.

I was set on buying a 996 at one point. I went to go buy a silver Carrera S for $15k 5 or 6 years ago. I test drove it and wasn't that into it. The 987 S was better in every way.

Just do what I did and get a 986 S. It's 3/4 of a 996 for less than half the price. 

Then again, mine hasn't moved under it's own power since last fall.....

My suspicion is values will go up for good cars with a documented service history.  I didn't think the C4S's would go up the way they have but they've bounced up 50% in the last 2-3 years.  My turbo has gone up almost as much.  $20k may still buy you a base 996 in a few years but it won't be a good one...

In reply to docwyte :

That's my fear as well.  I'm hoping in a year or two max I can start my search.  Who knows, the 996 might end up like other 911s, practically an investment.

Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:

Just do what I did and get a 986 S. It's 3/4 of a 996 for less than half the price. 

Then again, mine hasn't moved under it's own power since last fall.....

I've really considered it.  I know the Boxster is a great car and I can still find examples for $10K that have a new/upgraded IMS bearing, but in the end I would always be left wanting a 911.  Plus I can get a baby seat for the back of the 911.

In a perfect world, I'll get my 911 in a reasonable amount of time and keep it as my weekend/occasional autocross car/etc, then find a Boxster for "cheap" and use it as a daily driver.  I don't know if that'll ever happen, but as I said, in a perfect world.

Any pics of a 996 with a carseat? That sounds like a nightmare.  My son hated the backseat when we test drove one. He was 5 at the time lol

In reply to yupididit :

I have a booster in the back of my 911 right now.  My 8 year old doesn't mind riding back there and will fit back there for awhile.  I had a friend with a 996 C4S that ran three car seats in his, two in the back, one in the front passenger seat.  You're not gonna fit a rear facing car seat in one of these but several of the forward facing seats fit

In reply to yupididit :

He probably hated it because he couldn't see the tach, speedo, and the road ahead in the back 

In reply to docwyte :

I think it might be the fact that his legs weren't long enough to go in a downward angle so his feet was against the front seatback

I'll just leave this here.

https://sfbay.craigslist.org/eby/cto/d/clayton-2001-porsche-911-turbo/7336306274.html

yupididit said:

Any pics of a 996 with a carseat? That sounds like a nightmare.  My son hated the backseat when we test drove one. He was 5 at the time lol

From what I've read a rear facing one, as above, just requires the front seat pushed forwards some.  My wife and I are both on the short side so that's no biggie.  And once the baby seat can go to front-facing, then the front seats can be in a normal position.  And like docwyte said, kids can fit in there for a while.  

In reply to infinitenexus :

Oh wow! 

Couldn't imagine getting a kid in and out of there lol. Good thing my boys are 4 and 10 lol

Now I'm looking at 997's