I still don't see EV's Replacing ICEs.

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I think Ford quitting on cars is a terrible decision. I understand they are not the hottest sector now, but if consumer tastes change naturally or by outside forces and people are driven back to cars ford will be I'll prepared. It's pretty much what we saw in the run up to 2008. Just my opinion I know plenty of people that think it's the right move.

I get what you are saying, I worry the rhetoric to abandon ICE by governments and capital investors is going to move the market prior to it being good for the consumer.

Pete. (l33t FS) said:

In reply to Opti :

I don't disagree that it makes little sense to abandon a market.  I am pointing out that what they say they are going to do, and what they actually are going to do, are not necessarily the same thing 

But they may have other motives for making the boast, like drumming up investor money, or attracting worker talents.

 

BTW - Imagine Ford 16-18 years ago saying that in 12 years they would stop selling cars in North America except for the Mustang.  Nobody would believe it was a good idea, that is a huge mistake, cars are a huge market...

I agree.  What they are saying  is hogwash.  But people who live in an urban environment and have never traveled don't get that we can't go all EV in 5 years.  Not saying that it won't happen eventually.  Not saying that companies shouldn't invest in the technology and start developing it.  I AM saying that the new car market cannot possibly be 100% EV by 2030.  That is unless we pull out a WWII effort to develop the infrastructure in 7 years.

parker said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I agree, but many manufacturers are claiming to be all EV by 2030 or 2035.  That's just not realistic unless they want to give up about 60% of the global market share.

Disagree politely, as the 60% number is today.  In 10 or 15 years of development and improvements, I don't think that number will be anywhere near 60%

I used to have a Palm Pilot.  I don't miss it because the new stuff is so much better.  Right now, EVs have shortcomings that make them unattractive to some buyers.  In 15 years when they have a decade and a half to provide more products for more niches, buyers will run out of reasons to avoid them.

The other dynamic is that the market will shape this as it progresses, just like it always has.

I feel like so many people are looking into the future and preparing for doomsday like the Y2K scare.  In hindsight, it was a complete bust.  I look back on all the times when there were major shifts in the automotive industry.  Each time some people thought it was going to be awful, and every time it ended up being just a fart in the wind.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I'm looking at the global market, not just the US.  South America, Africa, India, etc. are not going to be EV ready in 10 years.

Opti said:

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I think Ford quitting on cars is a terrible decision. I understand they are not the hottest sector now, but if consumer tastes change naturally or by outside forces and people are driven back to cars ford will be I'll prepared. It's pretty much what we saw in the run up to 2008. Just my opinion I know plenty of people that think it's the right move.

I get what you are saying, I worry the rhetoric to abandon ICE by governments and capital investors is going to move the market prior to it being good for the consumer.

Again, I don't think we're that far off from each other's opinion.  It will definitely be too fast for some.  You think it will be a very large number that get screwed.  I think it will be a very small handful.

I still think you're going a little sensational with "rhetoric to abandon ICE by governments," but I just don't follow the big scary doomsday theory.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Opti, your viewpoint is based on your opinion.  The majority of Americans support all new sales being EV by 2030.  In a recent poll, even the majority of Texans support the notion.  The demographic that you discuss... the people who don't want an EV or the people for whom an EV isn't a good choice... I think that group of people widely doesn't exist.  I think you're assuming that there will be more people affected negatively by this than actually exist.

You're concerns are valid... if they were supported by data.  You're saying "what about THESE people," and these people are saying, "dude, it's chill.  Sign me up."

EV poll

About the only thing that can be more misleading than statistics is polls. From the poll referenced...

About the Poll
Climate Nexus Polling, in partnership with the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication, conducted a representative survey of 2,678 registered voters across the U.S. in a scientific online poll conducted in October 2021. Polling methodology and additional findings are available at https://www.coltura.org/polling.

About Coltura
Coltura is working to improve climate, health, and equity by accelerating the transition from gasoline and diesel to cleaner alternatives. It focuses on changing gasoline supply, demand, and culture through innovative legal and policy pathways, media, and art. It is currently leading a multi-state effort to introduce legislation setting a target for all model year 2030 or later passenger and light-duty vehicles sold to be electric vehicles. Learn more at www.coltura.org.

The links to the polling methodology are broken. We don't know what they asked. We don't know who they asked. We don't know how it was presented. The sample size is small. The party giving the poll is not independent or unbiased. Many of the conclusions sited in the poll are highly suspect. 

Lastly, polls are really not a good way to make decisions. Especially about subjects where people are largely uninformed and no attempt is made to present the information needed to make in informed decision. 

Do you support an EV mandate for 2030 so that we can stop climate change and you will never have to buy gas again? 
 

Do you support an EV mandate for 2030 that will restrict the types of vehicles that you will be able to buy and increase the average cost of a new vehicle by 20%? 
 

Same question, but you will get vastly different polling results. 

Y2K was a legitimate scare, and it only turned into a nothingburger because of an intense amount of behind the scenes work to kludge old legacy systems into working once the two-digit year rolled past 99.  The fact that nothing seriously bad happened is a tribute to all the unsung programmer heroes out there.

The new problem is in 2038, but we have fifteen more years to worry about that.  Nobody will be using UN*X based systems by then, right? 

(posted from an Android device)

In reply to Boost_Crazy :

I even posted a more recent thread with similar sample size. Where the methodology is available, from politico/morning consult. The question was "do you support or oppose you state banning the sale of ICE vehicles." No framing 

Poll

It showed the plurality opposes the ban.

In reply to Opti :

I would oppose a ban written that way.  But that is not how the ban is written. ( at least what I've read).  Plus,  a significant portion of the public doesn't care.  They are driving SUV's  with automatics.  If electrics wind up operating as inexpensively as they have been  that's what they will buy.     They aren't the gear heads like we are. All they want to do is get to  to and from work cheaply. 
     

In reply to frenchyd :

Sorry I misquoted it it was ban on new fossil fuel powered vehicles

parker said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I'm looking at the global market, not just the US.  South America, Africa, India, etc. are not going to be EV ready in 10 years.

 

That's OK those places are busy buying used cars. And will continue for a while.    
      

I'm still betting that new ICE cars will be available in 2035 for the reasons I've stated before.

I'm glad to see we've moved on from the my dad can beat up your dad portion of this near 500 post monster I created and transitioned back to a discussion.

My thought is some emerging or smaller manufacturer will step into any vacuum created by the companies that went full EV........also as I have mentioned, my record as Nostra-Thomas ain't great so feel free to repost this in 12 years.

The power grid issue is coming from multiple sources as well. Many states are also baning gas in new construction.  Meaning in colder climates using the heat will be very inefficient emergency heat on a heat pump.  In North Carolina this year we had blackouts due to exceptional cold weather around Christmas time.  Evs that can feed back into the grid may help with the short period high demand.

I don't like the current planned laws that say if an ev does not work for you after 2035 you will not be able to buy a new car/truck.  Hopefully we will see more hybrid options, but many companies are not researching hybrid because bevs are better media.

Apartment dwellers are going to get the stick unless they are forced to install chargers. Using public fast charging can be just as expensive as refueling & could get worse as demand increases.

Caperix said:

The power grid issue is coming from multiple sources as well. Many states are also baning gas in new construction.  Meaning in colder climates using the heat will be very inefficient emergency heat on a heat pump.  In North Carolina this year we had blackouts due to exceptional cold weather around Christmas time.  Evs that can feed back into the grid may help with the short period high demand.

I don't like the current planned laws that say if an ev does not work for you after 2035 you will not be able to buy a new car/truck.  Hopefully we will see more hybrid options, but many companies are not researching hybrid because bevs are better media.

Apartment dwellers are going to get the stick unless they are forced to install chargers. Using public fast charging can be just as expensive as refueling & could get worse as demand increases.

Heat pumps have gotten a lot more viable in recent years, as they have been improved to work in colder weather.  And for new construction in cold states, I'm sure some will consider geothermal heat pumps rather than air sourced (geothermal is more efficient).  Plus, heat pumps are dramatically more efficient than electric resistance heat and should be no worse for power usage than people running air conditioning in the summer.

Part of the power grid problem is that the companies running the grid want to make money.  They're not going to spend any more on improvements than what's required for them to keep making money (or any more than they're forced/required to improve).  But as demand for power grows, improvements will have to happen (and they're certainly possible).  The biggest reason utilities have gotten away with being lazy about grid improvements for so long is that so many appliances, etc. have gotten more efficient over the last 20 - 30 years, so that has offset a decent chunk of the power demand growth from people having more electrical stuff in their houses. 

I expect some of the EV-only deadlines will get extended if there are still too many stumbling blocks when we get closer to the date.  Plenty of implementation dates have been set aggressively to push innovation, then moved out if it's determined to be unrealistic. 

The problem with total electrification is our grid is in poor shape from years of monopolies taking profit instead of reinvesting in infrastructure. 

Talk to anyone in southeast Michigan right now how it's going. I have friends who have been without power in freezing temps for days now, and the utility says it will be days more before power is back. 

I'm an EV evangelist but I doubt I'll go to heat pump for my home, as there's no way to get a generator or battery powerful enough to keep one running for a days-long power outage. A friend has a geothermal system locally, and it takes up to 10+ kw if it's really cold out. Running all night that would deplete like 10 Powerwall batteries in one evening. 

I'll be ditching the gas stove soon due to indoor air pollution, but the gas water heater and furnace will be staying.  

parker said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I'm looking at the global market, not just the US.  South America, Africa, India, etc. are not going to be EV ready in 10 years.

 

The UK is the only location that I've seen with a target date of 2030.

2035 is the most common year for banning new ICE sales (EU, Japan, California, parts of China, Canada, etc).

Markets like India, Africa, and South America aren't critical to most of the automakers that are pledging to go all EV. Most of them have been hemorrhaging money on operations in these places for a decade or more, with several of them closing up shop completely in these regions. The profitable markets for large OEMs are China, US, EU and Japan. They determine what the OEMs produce, which is why most of the OEMs are pledging to be all EV (at least in markets requiring it) by 2035 to meet regulation in these markets.

Erich said:

The problem with total electrification is our grid is in poor shape from years of monopolies taking profit instead of reinvesting in infrastructure. 

Talk to anyone in southeast Michigan right now how it's going. I have friends who have been without power in freezing temps for days now, and the utility says it will be days more before power is back. 

I'm an EV evangelist but I doubt I'll go to heat pump for my home, as there's no way to get a generator or battery powerful enough to keep one running for a days-long power outage. A friend has a geothermal system locally, and it takes up to 10+ kw if it's really cold out. Running all night that would deplete like 10 Powerwall batteries in one evening. 

I'll be ditching the gas stove soon due to indoor air pollution, but the gas water heater and furnace will be staying.  

Does Michigan offer any support for solar panels or wind generators?   The price of an installed wind generator might be a really tough nut but modern rare earth magnets make them viable  in areas with wind averages  as low as 5-6 mph. 
  Solar panels would need battery back up  to deal with off grid situations. However that's where Fords promotion of their Lightening  has a possible solution.  Didn't they say that the F150 could operate a house for 3&1/2 days?   With gains back  through solar panels  doesn't that become indefinite?  
   I understand your age and future living plans  would determine if this has a payback.  

Opti said:

In reply to Pete. (l33t FS) :

I think Ford quitting on cars is a terrible decision. I understand they are not the hottest sector now, but if consumer tastes change naturally or by outside forces and people are driven back to cars ford will be I'll prepared. It's pretty much what we saw in the run up to 2008. Just my opinion I know plenty of people that think it's the right move.

I get what you are saying, I worry the rhetoric to abandon ICE by governments and capital investors is going to move the market prior to it being good for the consumer.

Betting on tastes changing back is a losing bet.  Men wearing hats stopped when John F Kennedy went hatless  at his inauguration  60 years ago. 
      Oh there will be a few die hards. Look at Miata.  For the two seat sports car convertible.  But not enough for Ford to be interested in the market.  They will import to meet demand rather than build  a factory. 
     However,   With pickups and version of those both GM and Ford will continue to build ICE 

In reply to rslifkin :

Extended deadlines isn't likely.  Fuel mileage deadlines were met, pollution levels were met. Water and air quality issues have been met.   The technology to do so is well known.  It only lacks Capitol investment. 
     That is the simplest solution of all.  It's how America pays for all our wars. 
 We simply inflate our way out of debt. 

In reply to frenchyd :

Even with an F150 Lightning sitting in the garage and backing up your solar, a geothermal system would chew through all its power in less than a day, and that's if the Lightning can even supply the power necessary to operate the heat pump and resistance heater.

If there's snow on your panels or it's cloudy you aren't recharging that power debt in the 8-10 hours of daylight in Michigan. And you're stuck at home because you can't drive your Lightning around if you're using it to power your home. 

Geo and heat pumps are a good solution if you can count on power in the winter. If the grid goes down for any length of time you better have a backup wood stove or gas furnace

In reply to Erich :

Thanks for that clarification. 

Minnesota also gets more usable sun than Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Western New York

Interestingly (perhaps only to me) the Army Corps of Engineers regional boundaries follow the solar hours map fairly closely, with most of Minnesota falling outside of the Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley division:

parker said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I'm looking at the global market, not just the US.  South America, Africa, India, etc. are not going to be EV ready in 10 years.

 

Most of the Global market  you mentioned has niche cars locally manufactured or import used cars from Japan, US, or Europe. 
   However even in that segment  EV's  can meet some needs. There are cities every place you  mentioned.  Cities are the current batch of EV's strong suite.  
 

Caperix said:

The power grid issue is coming from multiple sources as well. Many states are also baning gas in new construction.  Meaning in colder climates using the heat will be very inefficient emergency heat on a heat pump.  In North Carolina this year we had blackouts due to exceptional cold weather around Christmas time.  Evs that can feed back into the grid may help with the short period high demand.

I don't like the current planned laws that say if an ev does not work for you after 2035 you will not be able to buy a new car/truck.  Hopefully we will see more hybrid options, but many companies are not researching hybrid because bevs are better media.

Apartment dwellers are going to get the stick unless they are forced to install chargers. Using public fast charging can be just as expensive as refueling & could get worse as demand increases.

Didn't your blackouts have something to do with anarchy?  Some one shooting out electrical substations? 

In reply to STM317 :

Thanks for that!!   I haven't seen that chart before.