I still don't see EV's Replacing ICEs.

frenchyd said:

According to Musk at investors day. Lithium is 2% of a battery. Most  of a battery is nickle ( common metal)  

   They own a 10,000 acre lithium mine in Nevada and have a new process for lithium. Using table salt  to make it suitable for batteries.    There are currently 6 major suppliers of lithium  2 American in South America , 2 Chinese , one in Australia and one in India. The Salton Sea in Southern California is also a future source of Lithium. 
   Recent discoveries  of Rare earth metals in the Bad Lands of. South Dakota  and also in North Dakota.  Are beginning to  prove such minerals/ metals are far more common than previously believed.  
  They also have a new process for converting nickle ore. Dramatically reducing the cost of nickle in their batteries. 
     Elon Musk is doing what GM and Ford used to do, vertically integrate  to control costs and maximize profit.  
    Elon musk is buying a German company to allow non contact charging while driving on highways. 
     ( it's already in use in Norway, Sweden and parts of Germany).   Thus dramatically reducing the required size of batteries.  
Especially on big trucks and buses. 
   Without the need for large batteries    Costs will again be reduced. 

I would like for this to be true but the only source of this technology working is the Musk who doesn't have the greatest track record of being right. Tesla was in the right place at the right time with a few cars. There's been nothing since. Those cars are past what would have been the end of their life cycle and often with spotty build quality. If he were a legacy manufacturer those cars would be failures at this point. No one has coasted further on hype than he has. I read something that only vehicle on the market currently longer than the Model S is the Chevy Van.
 

He makes a lot of claims, backs up very few. Ask the people waiting on their roadsters. He built one, and promptly shot it into space before they could see it.  Or whoever backed his bid to buy twitter, or all the people that haven't gotten their semis....

In reply to Wally (Forum Supporter) :

The Model S and it's age are kind of hard to pin, because Tesla doesn't do a model line refresh like we think- if they have a better or new method to make something they just *do* it instead of trying to bundle up all the new production a new product. I'll take the battery pack as an example- this is a P85 battery pack, like what we'd see in 2017, compared to the current, modern Plaid battery pack. Instead of ~15 individual packs we're down to 5(!), and internally cooling has been massively altered, to where instead of the cooling channel snaking through the entire pack (thus one channel cooling ~200 cells) coming from the center, they now make single "U" channels to a collective hot return all on one side. This change was done with the line refresh in 2021, but it underscores that if you put an S from 2013 beside a new one they're the "same car" in name only- and that the only reason we don't call it a "second gen S" is because Tesla doesn't. Early 2013 S'es are basically a step above a kit car, and that's per ex-Tesla engineer Superfast Matt (Who also has a good video on this when discussing doors in his video "Tesla is lightyears ahead of... tesla").

The roadster he shot into space as a stunt was his own from like, 2007. Unofficially, the newest Roadster hasn't been made because they NEED to make it outdo the Plaid which is selling well enough to where it would just detract from sales. Not having the production space also doesn't help matters, and frankly you're only making a faster vehicle through lighter weight at this point. But all the 4680s are going to the Model Ys, so nobody knows except Tesla.

Completely agree on him coasting on hype tho; the twitter deal showed who he really is, someone willing to drop literally tens of billions to preserve their own ego and lacking the humility to be genuinely intelligent.

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

frenchyd said:

According to Musk at investors day. Lithium is 2% of a battery. Most  of a battery is nickle ( common metal)  

   They own a 10,000 acre lithium mine in Nevada and have a new process for lithium. Using table salt  to make it suitable for batteries.    There are currently 6 major suppliers of lithium  2 American in South America , 2 Chinese , one in Australia and one in India. The Salton Sea in Southern California is also a future source of Lithium. 
   Recent discoveries  of Rare earth metals in the Bad Lands of. South Dakota  and also in North Dakota.  Are beginning to  prove such minerals/ metals are far more common than previously believed.  
  They also have a new process for converting nickle ore. Dramatically reducing the cost of nickle in their batteries. 
     Elon Musk is doing what GM and Ford used to do, vertically integrate  to control costs and maximize profit.  
    Elon musk is buying a German company to allow non contact charging while driving on highways. 
     ( it's already in use in Norway, Sweden and parts of Germany).   Thus dramatically reducing the required size of batteries.  
Especially on big trucks and buses. 
   Without the need for large batteries    Costs will again be reduced. 

I would like for this to be true but the only source of this technology working is the Musk who doesn't have the greatest track record of being right. Tesla was in the right place at the right time with a few cars. There's been nothing since. Those cars are past what would have been the end of their life cycle and often with spotty build quality. If he were a legacy manufacturer those cars would be failures at this point. No one has coasted further on hype than he has. I read something that only vehicle on the market currently longer than the Model S is the Chevy Van.
 

He makes a lot of claims, backs up very few. Ask the people waiting on their roadsters. He built one, and promptly shot it into space before they could see it.  Or whoever backed his bid to buy twitter, or all the people that haven't gotten their semis....

Wally a little patience is called for.  Creation/invention doesn't happen at a snap of your fingers. 
   Pretend you decide to turbo charge your car or do something else.  You need to order the parts and sometimes they are delayed arriving.   At that point you can cancel your plans ( and the order) and forget about.  Or just be patient and wait for them to arrive.  Then maybe not everything fits your car exactly  so you either modify it or send it back.  
  Etc.  
   Then there is your personal schedule.  Work has you on a project that isn't going to schedule.  So you're required to work overtime. Or be fired. 
  
    Elon musk was talking  to investors who want to know why they should keep their money in his firm.   
      Elon gave them many reasons. But didn't mention hurdles yet to be overcome. 
    Bottom line?   There is no real reason to redesign  the model S anymore then the steady progress he's making.  The current one is better than those of the past.  Sales are still good.  Perhaps not in terms of the model 3 and model Y  but those are more exclusive  cars.   Sales won't be.  
  Sales of the truck will eclipse every other model only to be passed by sales of the model 2. 
    Remember what his real goal is.   

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Apply that logic to any other production car. Yes the Camry looks like a 2012 but xyz is different. No one would touch it because it's an old Camry. He can get away with it because he's sold people a story not because of the product. 

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Apply that logic to any other production car. Yes the Camry looks like a 2012 but xyz is different. No one would touch it because it's an old Camry. He can get away with it because he's sold people a story not because of the product. 

My AW11 MR2 is split into two sub-generations with differences that caused me to waste money- Mk 1a and 1b. Tesla's no different there, and at least with Tesla the bolt holes didn't change.

He did sell a story- help fix the environment while making few changes to anything is a bit of a fairy tale- but you need it to sell your product. Humans are emotional, we rarely buy anything based on rationality.

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Apply that logic to any other production car. Yes the Camry looks like a 2012 but xyz is different. No one would touch it because it's an old Camry. He can get away with it because he's sold people a story not because of the product. 

Perhaps I'm different.  Styling means very little to me.  In fact I really don't care for the styling  of almost anything in the last 50 years. 
  Yes that's because I grew up in the 1950's where every year new styling was introduced. Keeping the same old drum brakes and soft handling of the past  in spite of European development of disk brakes and Independent rear suspension.  
            
       What you fail to understand is the greater reliability of even an old EV compared to modern ICE.    One very early Tesla model S has a million miles on it already with very low maintenance compare to an ICE of the same price and year.  
  Far more Tesla's  have 1/2 million miles  or other hi mileage achievement.   
   Pistons have to go up, stop, and go down, then up and down again before  any power is created. Only  inertia keeps it running for 3 of the 4 piston strokes.  
then peak torque occurs at 4800 RPM 

 requiring numbers of gears to get the car moving.  
an EV doesn't need a transmission because peak toque is at 0 rpm. That's why trains loaded with hundreds of tons  are EV's ( powered by electricity generated from a unit attached to a diesel Engine).  
  The electric motors in trains provide reliable power for many millions of miles over several decades.  They simply rotate. Most maintenance on the train is done on the diesel engine not the electric drive motor. 
 

 I'm a really serious gear head.  I love working on a 12 cylinder  motor.   Simply because it's perfectly balanced and doesn't have the issue of second order harmonics a V8 does. 
   But that doesn't mean I think a V12 is better than an EV for cheapness and reliability.   It means I like to play with my toys.  

GIRTHQUAKE said:

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :

Apply that logic to any other production car. Yes the Camry looks like a 2012 but xyz is different. No one would touch it because it's an old Camry. He can get away with it because he's sold people a story not because of the product. 

My AW11 MR2 is split into two sub-generations with differences that caused me to waste money- Mk 1a and 1b. Tesla's no different there, and at least with Tesla the bolt holes didn't change.

He did sell a story- help fix the environment while making few changes to anything is a bit of a fairy tale- but you need it to sell your product. Humans are emotional, we rarely buy anything based on rationality.

He did more than sell a story.   By making the cars out of Aluminum  they won't rust away in the rust belt. 
  His factories set new standards on environmental awareness.  
 Plus the cars he produces should be extremely durable.   Electric motors are very durable.  Very cost efficient,  it's what powers trains millions of miles with minimum maintenance    ( most work is done on the diesel  motors driving the generator. ) 

If not all electricity going into  charging batteries is clean renewable.  It's because  we still have some old, costly plants  that need to be paid for. 

frenchyd said:

Wally a little patience is called for.  Creation/invention doesn't happen at a snap of your fingers. 
   Pretend you decide to turbo charge your car or do something else.  You need to order the parts and sometimes they are delayed arriving.   At that point you can cancel your plans ( and the order) and forget about.  Or just be patient and wait for them to arrive.  Then maybe not everything fits your car exactly  so you either modify it or send it back.  
  Etc.  
   Then there is your personal schedule.  Work has you on a project that isn't going to schedule.  So you're required to work overtime. Or be fired. 
  
    Elon musk was talking  to investors who want to know why they should keep their money in his firm.   
      Elon gave them many reasons. But didn't mention hurdles yet to be overcome. 
    Bottom line?   There is no real reason to redesign  the model S anymore then the steady progress he's making.  The current one is better than those of the past.  Sales are still good.  Perhaps not in terms of the model 3 and model Y  but those are more exclusive  cars.   Sales won't be.  
  Sales of the truck will eclipse every other model only to be passed by sales of the model 2. 
    Remember what his real goal is.   

Like many Tesla fanatics you think they're the only company working on this, and believe the E36 M3 he dishes out to be true. Like you said it all comes from investor day. The day the carney steps up and works to part people from their money. He's good at it, as the people that bought Twitter haven't come for his head yet, but he continues to fail to deliver. Your patience comment would make sense if others were as well, but they're not. While his 36 semis drag potato chips around "testing" Freightliner, Volvo, Mack, BYD and others are delivering electric trucks to actual customers as fast as they can build them. 
 

While fans keep waiting for the Cybertruck people are buying electric pickups and vans at Ford dealers. Probably from Chevy and Dodge as well before a single Cybertruck makes it to an objective reviewer. 
 

Unless government money through Space X and optimistic investors prop it up Tesla will be an afterthought in 10 years once more people realize there are better built better supported alternatives. 

frenchyd said:

 
            
       What you fail to understand is the greater reliability of even an old EV compared to modern ICE.    One very early Tesla model S has a million miles on it already with very low maintenance compare to an ICE of the same price and year.  
  Far more Tesla's  have 1/2 million miles  or other hi mileage achievement.   
   

Again you're confusing Tesla and EVs.  Find a post where I have an issue with EVs. I have a bit of real world experience beyond just reading Elon's press releases. 
 

At work we tested a BYD prototype around 2011 for a few weeks. It was crude, as though someone described a bus to them over the phone, but the concept was interesting.  It was quiet, smooth, and you could see there was potential. 2018 we got long term demonstrators from New Flyer and Proterra. Unlike the Tesla Semis these were fully functional buses that replaced the diesel engines with electrics. They did everything a bus is supposed to do, and worked very well. Like a number of other agencies we've been buy them since, and after some scheduling adjustments to compensate for charging they've been great. I don't need to be sold on electrics, but you'll never convince Tesla is better at developing, building and, maintaining vehicles than real vehicle companies.  

In reply to Wally (Forum Supporter) :

Wally a few things.  I read everything about Tesla. Even from those seemingly out to sink him.  I'm planning on buying a model 2 when it comes out.  It will be the last car I purchase and  because it's a car I check carefully. 
     The following are from several non Tesla sources. First Elon musk is extremely successful selling his cars. 
    The Model Y just outsold Toyota as the worlds most popular car.   Unlike  most legacy brands Tesla has 60 billion dollars in cash. While Most Legacy brands are more than 100 Billion in debt. Some have twice that amount of debt.  Ford recently went to the US government to borrow 9.5 billion dollars to build a battery facility.  ( Tesla already has made over 1 million batteries  from his battery plant that's already paid for.  
       The reason Tesla is so profitable is he did what Ford and GM originally did.  He's vertically integrated.  Instead of buying everything from venders he owns the suppling companies. Those he doesn't own outright he owns a significant level of stock in the company like Ford and GM used to do.  
           If you do a little investigating yourself. You will see how little profit per car Legacy car companies make.  While until recently Tesla was making over $9000 for each car he sold.  That's why the prices have been reduced lately  to below  the average price of a new car sold. $48,000 is what the average is. Before rebates Tesla model 3 is around $44,000. 
 Depending on what state you live in the rebates are worth $10,000 or more on top of that. 
      

In reply to frenchyd :

This is the first time I've ever heard someone say they were buying a car because the builder is profitable.  It's also incredibly optimistic. One of the things driving that profitability as the lack of a service network. Should the Model 2 hit the road in our lifetimes and it breaks or is involved in a collision you now own a broken Tesla. Parts are next to impossible to source, and wait times friends have experienced have been comical.  Customer support is nonexistent and they're frequently totaled after fairly small hits because they're nightmares to get replacement pieces for.  

In reply to Wally (Forum Supporter) :

I wonder how this translates into Tesla insurance rates?  

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Wally (Forum Supporter) :

I wonder how this translates into Tesla insurance rates?  

Direct correlation, higher repair costs (or replacement), higher insurance rates. But there are dozens and dozens of things that the underwriters/actuaries use to come up with insurance rates. 

Can we get to 1600 posts?  

In reply to parker :

Unless someone takes frenchyd's phone away from him, yes. 

In reply to Toyman! :

Will Frenchy wear us all down before page 100?  Stay tuned to find out!  

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Pretty sure I'm going to make it to hive deity status.................

C'mon!  Seven more to go, we can do it!!

I'm still waiting for a realistic EV minivan.  Until then, no chance of an EV replacing my main ICE.

(six more)

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :

This is the first time I've ever heard someone say they were buying a car because the builder is profitable.  It's also incredibly optimistic. One of the things driving that profitability as the lack of a service network. Should the Model 2 hit the road in our lifetimes and it breaks or is involved in a collision you now own a broken Tesla. Parts are next to impossible to source, and wait times friends have experienced have been comical.  Customer support is nonexistent and they're frequently totaled after fairly small hits because they're nightmares to get replacement pieces for.  

Wally.
     You want the company you buy from to be profitable so they can service you in the future.   I would rather buy from an industry leader than someone who is going to struggle to stay in business.   
  In short I'd rather buy a Tesla than a Jaguar and everyone knows how much I like Jaguars. 
  there are several people reporting the beginning  of the production of they  Cyber  truck.  
   While it is possible those assembly lines are making  pre-production trucks.  
      That's nice to know. I'd rather not get the first ones off the lines. 
     As far as parts, it's chicken or egg.  Make parts to fix things that may not break?   
I don't know what Henry Ford  did at the start.  Or how long it took him to set up a good nationwide service department.   
But  Obviously I'm more patient than you. 
     

In reply to frenchyd :

Supply chains didn't really exist in Ford's time. He understood their importance and established them. Now it's not that difficult to do compared to then, so there's no excuse to have a poor one. Even with fewer parts they still fail and still crash. To not be able to get your car back in a timely manner after a collision because it's waiting for parts is inexcusable

frenchyd said:

Wally (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to frenchyd :
  In short I'd rather buy a Tesla than a Jaguar and everyone knows how much I like Jaguars. 
 
     

I sure hope I don't have to dodge flying pigs on my commute, but I will be on the lookout now!

I find the concept that Tesla has been able to use pretty much the exact design for a car for many years rather interesting.  Could another car maker do that?  I mean, the Bug was around for a LONG time without major changes, but had rather significant technological changes over the years (you know, the high falutin' 12v stuff and such!).  

What does this say?  Why do car designs NEED to change (excluding required safety stuff of course)?  I am sure it being obvious that you have a new car, by it's design, is part of it.  Look at me!

In reply to aircooled :

A fair part of that is job security for the design and engineering team. The rest is to keep the car manufacturer in business. 

aircooled said:

I find the concept that Tesla has been able to use pretty much the exact design for a car for many years rather interesting.  Could another car maker do that?  I mean, the Bug was around for a LONG time without major changes, but had rather significant technological changes over the years (you know, the high falutin' 12v stuff and such!).  

What does this say?  Why do car designs NEED to change (excluding required safety stuff of course)?  I am sure it being obvious that you have a new car, by it's design, is part of it.  Look at me!

I think it says a few things. 

First, I think it says that Tesla pushed their cars out before an established automaker would have. They let the owners do the beta testing for them. They probably got the car out before another automaker would have.

Second, I think it says that a redesign and product launch is an exceptionally challenging and expensive endeavor. And since the Model S has been released, Tesla have also released the 3, the X, the Y, their Semi. Not to mention, the Cybertruck and roadster are in the plans. So it would be easy to let the S just sit on the backburner; it will not be their bread and butter even if it is their flagship.

And lastly, the large luxury car segment - which the Model S may or may not fit under - tends to have long vehicle lifespans. 8 years between a redesign is about the norm; 11 years is not at all unheard of.