Is now the time to buy a TDI?

My GF was planning to look for a replacement for her Cobalt next year when it passes 200k miles (she's had it since new). A lightly-used TDI was on the radar, but we considered the buy-in was probably going to be higher than she wants to go. However, with the whole recent emissions scandal business, I'm reading about values sinking, which theoretically at least would suggest dropping prices on the used market. So should we be reconsidering in light of this? Neither of us cares one iota about the scandal, and I'm assuming VW's going to be eating the bill for any modifications, so there shouldn't be any additional costs as a result.

The answer seems to be "not yet." In the few other threads this has come up in, it actually sounds like the situation is at kind of an impasse. Nobody is selling because they are holding out for a VW buyback, and if they are selling they're asking on the high side because they don't want to take a bath on the value. Dealers aren't playing ball yet either because the 2016s are held up due to the scandal.

If values do suddenly end up tanking hard enough, I would consider trading my Fit in on a Jetta Sportwagen, but that hasn't happened yet.

Hmmm, good to know. I guess we may be waiting until next year after all.

Incidentally, since I would be the one doing the work on this thing, what are modern VWs like to work on? Like you, I think we'd most likely be talking about a Jetta Sportwagen.

If I were to buy, my intention would be to trade it in on something else immediately after the warranty ended, so I don't know much there. I found anything on the Mk4 cars beyond simple consumables to be infuriating to work on, so I can't imagine I would much enjoy a Mk6/Mk7. Part of the reason I ended up with a CPO Honda...

They are starting to be sold, used ones at least. However, they cannot be sold as a certified preowned car and are sold as-is. One guy flew from Louisiana to STL to buy a used Golf TDI Hatch with 24k miles, for $18k. He thought it was a good deal; I think it was pretty good too.

New ones still can't be sold though.

200k on a Cobalt. How about a Chevy Cruise diesel as the replacement?

JohnRW1621 wrote: 200k on a Cobalt. How about a Chevy Cruise diesel as the replacement?

No manual option that I can see, so no go. In her words, she won't drive an automatic unless she's lost a leg.

My friend is a VW salesman, they have 1 used TDI and it is down to 75%of what it was. Hesitation about the DSG has kept me from buying.

I have a feeling TDI values will go up, not down. If VW isn't selling any more and there is a demand for them, then the used models will get more valuable.

I have a feeling there will also be a percentage of pro-pollution types who will buy them so they can claim to be stigginit to the EPA. They are colloquially known as coal rollers.

In reply to Knurled:

I agree that the "forbidden" version will rise in popularity, desire and price if for no other reason than it is forbidden.

Knurled wrote: I have a feeling TDI values will go up, not down. If VW isn't selling any more and there is a demand for them, then the used models will get more valuable. I have a feeling there will also be a percentage of pro-pollution types who will buy them so they can claim to be stigginit to the general living public. They are colloquially known as coal rollers.

FYP.

The only people who are harmed from polluters are other people. Not the EPA.

Why people like to harm their neighbors? I don't get that.

02Pilot wrote:

In her words, she won't drive an automatic unless she's lost a leg.

Sounds like you have a keeper!

What model year do the TDI's start to get affected.

In reply to 92dxman:

2010 for the four cylinders, don't remember off hand for the bigger engines.

http://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?endYear=2016&zip=19446&transmissionCode=MAN&maxPrice=13000&transmissionCodes=MAN&showcaseListingId=0&mmt=%5BVOLKS%5BJET%5B%5D%5D%5B%5D%5D&modelCode1=JET&makeCode1=VOLKS&startYear=2012&showcaseOwnerId=1153749&firstRecord=0&searchRadius=25&listingId=412766835&Log=0

In reply to 92dxman:

That looks like a decent price to me for one with 110k on it, but nothing groundbreaking. When you can find them with less than 50k miles in the $15k realm, THAT will be the time to buy.

As a current Mk6 Golf TDI owner, I'd say now is the time to buy one. Anyone looking to get out of a TDI is really taking a shot to the junk. Their market value dropped $3-4k seemingly overnight, but they're in high demand. The economics of the situation are utterly retarded. My trade in value was estimated at $12.2k in September (pre dieselgate) and is now estimated at $8k (last weekend at the dealer while they validated my gift cards). Somehow demand is up but prices are plummeting. I guess this is what I get for being a cheap ass and not buying the Golf R instead... My TDI is worth less than a base 2.5L despite costing over $8k more and having significantly more options.

In reply to Yani:

It seems if you have one you want to unload, selling privately is the way to go.

alfadriver wrote: Why people like to harm their neighbors? I don't get that.

Umm... because they're berk-wads?

But I have an '03 ALH version. It will "roll coal" a bit under hard acceleration, bone stock.

http://www.autotrader.com/cars-for-sale/vehicledetails.xhtml?endYear=2016&zip=19446&transmissionCode=MAN&maxPrice=15000&transmissionCodes=MAN&showcaseListingId=0&mmt=%5BVOLKS%5BJET%5BJET%257CTDI%5D%5D%5B%5D%5D&vehicleStyleCodes=WAGON&modelCode1=JET&makeCode1=VOLKS&startYear=2012&showcaseOwnerId=1153749&firstRecord=0&searchRadius=500&listingId=417344755&Log=0

I'd say the deals are already there.

I'm also a fellow mk6 Golf TDI owner. Before this hit I routinely saw used models of my vintage at $16K+ even at 100K and above.

Now there's dealer sold models like this one ('11 Golf TDI 6-speed) with 39K on it for less than $14K. (NMNA) http://annarbor.craigslist.org/ctd/5370845313.html

There's even cheaper private sale ones out there too.

TDi values were already somewhat depressed by lower fuel prices even before the emissions scandal hit. Now the bottom has fallen out. After 2 1/2 years of ownership I expected to be close to $20k in market value, not $12k!

On a brighter note, I paid $1.79/gal for diesel this morning.

FWIW, none of my aftermarket suppliers are tooling up anything to fix the TDI's. Word on the street is that all of the non-urea TDI's with the software are getting bought back and shipped out (think Africa and Eastern Europe).