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Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 9:14 a.m.

Maybe Jaguar will finally make that concept EV that had the microturbine power generators.

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
2/16/21 9:34 a.m.

All of this EV stuff is laughable to me at the moment. 

The power grid can't even handle the cold spell we are having now. 14 states in the Southern Power Pool have been under rolling blackouts for the last 36 hours............but tens of millions of new EV cars that need to be charged is going to work? 

I guess if for-profit utility companies are going to suddenly start investing hundreds of billions in infrastructure and new power generation facilities............

As you can tell, I'm salty about having the power shut off when it's -10 outside.

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
2/16/21 9:49 a.m.

In reply to z31maniac :

Solar panels and wind generators would provide independence from the power grid. You could still have a back up generator  for moments when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. 

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
2/16/21 9:58 a.m.

Not too many people going to work in a power outage in a winter storm, so you probably don't need to continually charge your EV, either. I only charge once a week as it is, so if a winter storm is forecast, I'd just plug the car in before hand and have a full charge after the storm starts.

That being said, EVs tend to charge at night when the power plants are ramped down. Adding EVs to the mix keeps the plants operation where they are most efficient, and with smart charging and the newer smart grids, EVs can load balance the grid as well.

Even if all car manufacturing switched overnight to EV production, at normal production rates it'll take 30 years to replace even HALF the fleet of cars in the US. More than enough time to upgrade the grid.

Also think about where our grid was 30 years ago and extrapolate that out to what it'll be like in 30 years when demand drives it to improve even faster than it has before.

alfadriver (Forum Supporter)
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
2/16/21 10:51 a.m.
frenchyd said:

In reply to z31maniac :

Solar panels and wind generators would provide independence from the power grid. You could still have a back up generator  for moments when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. 

That sounds all fine and dandy, until the news points out that part of the power problem is that the wind turbines iced up and stopped.  That's one I didn't expect.

alfadriver (Forum Supporter)
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
2/16/21 10:59 a.m.

In reply to Chris_V :

Not just generation, but distribution- if you want overnight charging, we need chargers lining streets so that cars that don't have garages can have places to charge, too.  That, and older garages and parking spots will need some upgrades to support overnight charging.

If you need the equivalent of one gallon of gas of energy, to do that in 8 hours- that's 40A @ 120V or 20A at 220V.  For me to provide that would require some upgrades in my garage.

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
2/16/21 11:05 a.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:

In reply to z31maniac :

Solar panels and wind generators would provide independence from the power grid. You could still have a back up generator  for moments when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. 

That sounds all fine and dandy, until the news points out that part of the power problem is that the wind turbines iced up and stopped.  That's one I didn't expect.

That's a rare set of circumstances. Far more rare than hurricanes. Up here in Minnesota we have a lot of wind generators with more every year.  We also have solar panels with more coming every year. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 11:10 a.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:
frenchyd said:

In reply to z31maniac :

Solar panels and wind generators would provide independence from the power grid. You could still have a back up generator  for moments when the sun isn't shining and the wind isn't blowing. 

That sounds all fine and dandy, until the news points out that part of the power problem is that the wind turbines iced up and stopped.  That's one I didn't expect.

That is not correct. It's a fun story for Texans - stupid newfangled renewables can't handle a bit of weather! - but it doesn't check out. 
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/02/texas-power-grid-crumples-under-the-cold/

Texas has other problems with their grid, and part of it isn't sharing.

 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
2/16/21 11:11 a.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Chris_V :

Not just generation, but distribution- if you want overnight charging, we need chargers lining streets so that cars that don't have garages can have places to charge, too.  That, and older garages and parking spots will need some upgrades to support overnight charging.

If you need the equivalent of one gallon of gas of energy, to do that in 8 hours- that's 40A @ 120V or 20A at 220V.  For me to provide that would require some upgrades in my garage.

You mean the city would make a profit off of curbside chargers?   Since they figured out how to put street lights up and traffic lights. I suspect it's not going to be a big issue. 
  As far as your garage assuming you drive the average 12,000 miles per year and get 20 mpg  you can continue to spend $1440 a year for gas or about $250 for electricity.     
      If your mileage is different etc please do your own calculations to figure out when the potential saving starts. 

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 11:12 a.m.

The power grid as it sits can handle a fleet of 25% EVs according to studies. And that's a moving target, the grid will evolve as the fleet evolves. It's a common complaint but not a valid one when you think about it. Just look at how the high speed charging networks have grown in the past 5 years. 

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
2/16/21 11:17 a.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

 Don't forget the relatively low cost of private solar panels/ windgenerators.  That not only add power to the grid but increase the grids efficency since local power generation can be consumed locally with minimum transmsission losses compared to single point generation's transmission losses.  
       If we up here in the arctic tundra can make solar work southern states must have a dramatically quicker payback. 

z31maniac
z31maniac MegaDork
2/16/21 11:24 a.m.
frenchyd said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

 Don't forget the relatively low cost of private solar panels/ windgenerators.  That not only add power to the grid but increase the grids efficency since local power generation can be consumed locally with minimum transmsission losses compared to single point generation's transmission losses.  
       If we up here in the arctic tundra can make solar work southern states must have a dramatically quicker payback. 

Oklahoma is one of the best states for solar power generation. I've already checked in to it, payback to put a solar system on my roof is 15-20 years and that's assuming the massive wind/hail storms we get here don't damage them forcing an insurance claim, which then drives up your rates, lengthens payback, etc. 

I'd like to just for the "green" aspect of it, but financially it doesn't make sense yet.

Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
2/16/21 11:31 a.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Chris_V :

Not just generation, but distribution- if you want overnight charging, we need chargers lining streets so that cars that don't have garages can have places to charge, too.  That, and older garages and parking spots will need some upgrades to support overnight charging.

If you need the equivalent of one gallon of gas of energy, to do that in 8 hours- that's 40A @ 120V or 20A at 220V.  For me to provide that would require some upgrades in my garage.

66% of homes already have offstreet parking (maybe not garages, but you only have to have parking fairly near the house to be viable). That's more than we can even make EVs for over the next 30 years. And there are incentives in place and coming soon in many states to put chargers in at apartments and condos, covering another 25% of living situations. No, home charging is not going to be an issue by the time even 50% of the fleet is converted. It's a red herring. And with modern EVs getting 250-300 miles in the summer and 150-200 miles in the winter, then you only need chargers every 30-50 miles to be able to go and charge somewhere and get around. But the truth is, we have more than that already on both coasts (where the vast bulk of the population is. Even conservative Tennessee is slated this year and next to put in enough chargers that no one in the sate will be more than 25 miles from a fast charger while on the road. Yes, there are wide open space in some of the middle of the country, but land doesn't need vehicles, only people do. And most people out there still live within 100 miles of everything they need). Let's take care of the bulk of end users and work on the outliers as things progress.

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 11:34 a.m.

Solar is getting less expensive all the time, batteries are getting less expensive all the time. It'll get there. I've been flirting with the idea of solar partly because it'll keep my shop cooler and save on AC costs :) I'm not sure home generation is going to be a massive contributor to the grid anytime soon, but I'd like to be wrong. New power plants are expensive, how much home power generation can you install for the cost of one?

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 11:45 a.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Chris_V :

Not just generation, but distribution- if you want overnight charging, we need chargers lining streets so that cars that don't have garages can have places to charge, too.  That, and older garages and parking spots will need some upgrades to support overnight charging.

If you need the equivalent of one gallon of gas of energy, to do that in 8 hours- that's 40A @ 120V or 20A at 220V.  For me to provide that would require some upgrades in my garage.

I'm wondering about the math here. Tesla (I'm using Tesla because I know where to find the numbers, I'm sure you could find similar data for other manufacturers) says the charger that comes with a car will pump 15 miles of range into the car every hour if it's using a 220v/20A plug. In 8 hours of charging, that's 120 miles of range. Most people would likely equate a gallon of gas to 30-ish miles, so this sounds like a bigger problem than it is.

Chargers lining the streets is already being done in places like LA. EVgo is building their network in places where people spend time, like movie theaters or malls (remember both of those?) so they'd work well for someone who uses the ICE style of drain and fill because they can't charge where they park. 

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/16/21 11:46 a.m.

The "generate your own power" thing would certainly be nice, but as it sits now, it's way out of most peoples budget, and is financially impractical either way.  I think if you run the numbers (ignoring cost) a solar setup on a house is going to be a bit of a stretch to charge an electric car driven regularly.

As far as Jaguar, I see that as a company that can reasonably predict all electric by 2030.  They make higher end cars, that people with money tend to buy.  Those same people have the means to install whatever infrastructure they may need, and will tend to work and live in areas where they will have access to chargers.  They also don't make work / utility vehicles or economy cars, both of which have potential issues with electric (economy being cost / access).

frenchyd
frenchyd UltimaDork
2/16/21 11:58 a.m.

In reply to aircooled :

Here in Minnesota you can get solar panels on your house for free if it's suitable.  The utility company will do all the work and be responsible for maintenance. 
mid they can still make. A profit under those terms  and provide the owner with monthly income. Then maybe it's worth a second look. 

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
2/16/21 12:00 p.m.
APEowner said:
triumph7 said:

Jaguar+Lucas Electrics+Electric Cars

I don't think this ends well

I had the same thought!

 

+1. All I could see was the Jaguar smoking like a Mitsubishi 3.0L.

bobzilla
bobzilla MegaDork
2/16/21 12:03 p.m.
Keith Tanner said:

Solar is getting less expensive all the time, batteries are getting less expensive all the time. It'll get there. I've been flirting with the idea of solar partly because it'll keep my shop cooler and save on AC costs :) I'm not sure home generation is going to be a massive contributor to the grid anytime soon, but I'd like to be wrong. New power plants are expensive, how much home power generation can you install for the cost of one?

I think home generation is going to help keep the grid from collapsing from the extra demand than powering the home alone. If every home now could generate even 25% of it's daily energy usage that would be a huge burden lifted off the already overburdened grid

stuart in mn
stuart in mn MegaDork
2/16/21 12:04 p.m.

I don't know if it's inaccurate reporting or what, but I read in today's paper their goal was 2025 and not 2030...since that's only four years from now it doesn't sound realistic.

----

Jaguar to go all electric by 2025

Change spawns hopes that the brand can revive.

By PAN PYLAS Associated Press

LONDON – Struggling luxury car brand Jaguar will be fully electric by 2025, the British company said Monday as it outlined a plan to phase out internal combustion engines.

Jaguar Land Rover, which is owned by Indian conglomerate Tata Motors, hopes the move will help turn around the fortunes of the 86-year-old Jaguar brand, which for many epitomizes class but has struggled in recent years.

The switch to an electric future will involve moving car production from JLR’s Castle Bromwich factory east of the central England city of Birmingham to nearby Solihull.

Chief Executive Thierry Bollore said the firm is “exploring opportunities to repurpose” the Castle Bromwich plant, leading to speculation it could be used for battery production.

Jaguar Land Rover also said that the far more profitable Land Rover brand will produce its first all-electric model in 2024 as it, too, phases out internal combustion engines.

“We have all the ingredients at our disposal to reimagine the business and the experiences our customers seek, to reimagine the benchmark of luxury,” Bollore said.

The move was welcomed by British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps as “a huge step for British car manufacturing.”

The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, the British car industry’s trade group, said the announcement represents “an injection of confidence” into the sector, which has suffered during the coronavirus pandemic.

“Its road map to a future that is built around sustainability, with electrified and hydrogen models as well as investment in connected and digital technologies, aligns with government ambition and increasing consumer expectations,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of the group.

However, he said the U.K. will need to improve its competitiveness in light of the global competition going on in the shift to electric cars, not least from the likes of Tesla. “Government must ensure advanced manufacturing has its full support, with a policy framework and plan for growth that reduces costs, accelerates domestic battery production and electrified supply chains, and incentivizes R&D and skills development,” he said.

alfadriver (Forum Supporter)
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) MegaDork
2/16/21 12:09 p.m.

In reply to Keith Tanner :

All things being perfect, 220Vx20A = 4.4kW.  4L of gas (just over 1G) has 126MJ of energy.  It takes 28,000 seconds to deliver that energy at that power or 8 hours.

Some EV's are ~100mpge, ideally- so 15min would be about 25 miles.  Lower when it's hot, even lower when it's cold.  Lower when it's heavy and loaded, too.

But It's not a trivial issue that many seem to take it as.  Lining some streets vs half of ones people park at for long times....  

Even in my huge garage, I don't have 220V service in it.  Biggest thing I have is 120V/30A for a welder.

I'll leave now.  

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 12:11 p.m.

As always, go to the source.  Internet "news" articles are always a game of telephone, I have learned the craziest things about my own products once an article has been regurgitated a few times.

Jaguar press release

Here's the important stuff. Note "from 2025" - that's the first Jaguar EV, then.

  • Start of journey to become a net zero carbon business by 2039
  • Reimagination of Jaguar as an all-electric luxury brand from 2025 to ‘realise its unique potential’
  • In the next five years, Land Rover will welcome six pure electric variants as it continues to be the world leader of luxury SUVs
  • All Jaguar and Land Rover nameplates to be available in pure electric form by end of the decade; first all-electric Land Rover model in 2024
Chris_V
Chris_V UberDork
2/16/21 12:18 p.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

Even in my huge garage, I don't have 220V service in it.  Biggest thing I have is 120V/30A for a welder.

I'll leave now.  

Same here, So I had the 220 run from my breaker box in the basement on the opposite end of the house from the parking space. The electric company paid for most of the install, too. Both of my EVs charged outside (you can see the EVSE on the wall here).

Keith Tanner
Keith Tanner GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
2/16/21 12:18 p.m.
alfadriver (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to Keith Tanner :

All things being perfect, 220Vx20A = 4.4kW.  4L of gas (just over 1G) has 126MJ of energy.  It takes 28,000 seconds to deliver that energy at that power or 8 hours.

Some EV's are ~100mpge, ideally- so 15min would be about 25 miles.  Lower when it's hot, even lower when it's cold.  Lower when it's heavy and loaded, too.

But It's not a trivial issue that many seem to take it as.  Lining some streets vs half of ones people park at for long times....  

Even in my huge garage, I don't have 220V service in it.  Biggest thing I have is 120V/30A for a welder.

I'll leave now.  

I think the problem is that you're using "the amount of theoretical energy in a gallon of gas" as a unit of measurement. EVs are more efficient at using their energy, so you can't draw a direct comparison without also getting into explaining mpge. I initially thought "miles per hour" as a measure of charging speed was a little goofy but it's actually quite relatable. People understand it. And of course the mileage rating is under certain conditions, that applies to all vehicles.

We already have mechanisms in place to prevent people from hogging parking spots: parking meters have been around for a long time :)

It's not a problem that is solved today. But it doesn't have to be solved today. It's going to be a gradual process. The good thing about electricity is that we already have it almost everywhere (except Texas) and it's fairly flexible. It's not like we have to create a completely new distribution network like we would for an alternate fuel.

I got lucky in my current garage, the primary panel is right beside a parking spot so wiring in a high amperage charging plug is cake. Same with my previous garage. And, when I think about it, the one before that.

aircooled
aircooled MegaDork
2/16/21 12:39 p.m.
frenchyd said:

In reply to aircooled :

Here in Minnesota you can get solar panels on your house for free if it's suitable.  The utility company will do all the work and be responsible for maintenance. 
mid they can still make. A profit under those terms  and provide the owner with monthly income. Then maybe it's worth a second look. 

Yeah, I think it will depend on where you live.  I suspect in Minn, people tend to have yards that are easy to put panels in.  In CA (supposedly the capital of these sort of things) you can get tax subsidies etc, and we get way more sun then most places, but it's still wildly impractical for most.  For me, I love the idea of free power, but no way I am dumping 20 grand (CA = cost more) on a system that might cover my energy needs (20 grand buys a lot of electricity) and will likely be wildly out classed by a system that cost %50 as much 5-10 years later.

If I ever need to put a new roof on (metal, maybe not) I hope those solar tiles are available, I would certainly consider those.

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