FatMongo said:
I have better things to do than get sucked into this sillines.
But either you dont understand the context of the numbers you posted or you are purposefully trying to mislead. You cherry picked one particularly bad week of COVID-19 deaths when the US was at its peak and compared them to other morbidities which CONSISTENTLY produce that number PER WEEK, EVERY YEAR, Do you understand the difference? The COVID number will drop over the next few weeks while all the other numbers will stay the same or increase.
Nice try though.
The data is demonstrating that during that week, and likely this week, the virus is close to the leading cause of death in the united states. That was my point.
"If you look at the data more closely, the deaths per week compared to other leading causes COVID-19 is rapidly approaching #1 cause of death in the United States". Is that an incorrect statement?
I'm just saying that we can do a lot of work to make life somewhat normal without crippling the economy of small business that you or I would like to utilize in the near or distant future. I also understand it's not that simple and that me going to a track isn't essential. What is essential though is the workers effected by a forced shut down, and we are limited on ways to support them during this.
Unfortunately the cat is out of the bag. If this is our future response to the next outbreak from here on out, it's going to be a tough decade to come. Not just for motorsports, but to all of our friends an family the want to go to college, work in any entertainment industry, etc.
Rodan
Dork
4/17/20 11:04 a.m.
engiekev said:
The data is demonstrating that during that week, and likely this week, the virus is close to the leading cause of death in the united states. That was my point.
"If you look at the data more closely, the deaths per week compared to other leading causes COVID-19 is rapidly approaching #1 cause of death in the United States". Is that an incorrect statement?
Sensationalist fearmongering...
See, I can label your statistics too.
If you put a microscope on a specific timeframe, which is what you're doing, you can make anything look terrifying.
FatMongo said:
At some point courts upheld all kinds of crazy laws - including segregation. This kind of overreach has never happened nationally and there is a pent up backlash that is getting ready to burst the dam. Our Nation wasnt created so that low level politicians could run it by fiat. There is a system of check sand balances and limitations on power. The mayor of a locality cannot just decree that the Bill of Rights is 'off' for an undeterminate amount of time.
At no point did I say anything about a level of politician under the level of state governor, you are reaching. There are legal precedents for many things that might shock you. Heck, look up Russel County Alabama and Phenix City. (cliffs: declaration of martial law, national guard sent in, weapons seized...)
Truth is, we are in times either without precedent, or without a recent enough precedent to seem valid to todays reality. All of these emergency declarations open up whole cans of worms that may not normally apply. Courts may not always get it right, the laws may not be the right thing to do, but it is what it is for now and right will catch up later when we arent in extreme reaches to stem mortality due to a pandemic.
Mods: if this is approaching flounder I sincerely apologize. This will be my last post in this thread.
FatMongo said:
engiekev said:
Rodan said:
AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:
In reply to Apexcarver :
I believe in personal responsibility and safety. I also believe in the rule if law. One common misconception is that the unilateral decrees regarding this virus are laws. These are not laws. They are bureaucratic decrees made using emergency powers.
This.
The Covid outbreak can be taken seriously without destroying our economy and society. Here's some numbers for perspective from John Hopkins University Covid site...
As of today, 0.2% of the US population has tested positive for Covid.
As of today, 0.01% of the US population has died from Covid.
As of today Covid deaths represent approximately 1% of total number of deaths annually in the US.
Obviously, these number will go up with time, but it's simply not going to kill half the population and it's time to stop treating it like will if we don't lock down the whole country. We are doing immeasurable and long-term harm to small businesses, like the dragstrip in the OP, out of fear. And there's no question that this has been manipulated for political purposes. On both sides... it's the nature of government.
It's pretty easy to understand where the dragstrip owner is coming from...
This is completely inaccurate and a very dangerous analogy. You are trying to compare annual deaths from other causes to short-term deaths from COVID-19, that is simply not applicable. The deaths from COVID-19 are delayed, and many states aren't even approaching a peak yet. What is more accurate, is to look at the deaths per week compared to the other leading causes of death.
If you look at the data more closely, the deaths per week compared to other leading causes COVID-19 is rapidly approaching #1 cause of death in the United States:
And this is with all the social distancing and "unconstitutional" restrictions in place. Removing or disobeying these guidelines will only increase the rate of deaths per day.
Something worth discussing, is that the virus isn't directly affecting the entire country at the same rate. So regional control using hard data (i.e. by Governers, Mayors, etc.) is the best solution at this time.
So what is the alternative you are proposing? Are you are all arguing to remove these restrictions and let the virus spread, since it "isnt that bad"? Ok, in that case, we get to herd immunity essentially by infecting everyone and letting those are susceptible to death to just die. If so, the mortality rate conservatively is 1.5% (extremely conservative estimate), with the US population of 328.2 million 1.5% of that is 4.923 million. Let's round that down to even just 25% of that, since we have done some distancing so far, thats still 1.23 million deaths. Worth it!
I have better things to do than get sucked into this silliness.
But either you dont understand the context of the numbers you posted or you are purposefully trying to mislead. You cherry picked one particularly bad week of COVID-19 deaths when the US was at its peak and compared them to other morbidities which CONSISTENTLY produce that number PER WEEK, EVERY YEAR, Do you understand the difference? The COVID number will drop over the next few weeks while all the other numbers will stay the same or increase.
Nice try though.
This is the most recent week, so seems the be the most valid data point if you're going to compare. I'd hope the weekly death rate will go down, but I honestly doubt it. I'm in NY and most people who are sympotomatic can't even get tested. They just tell you to stay home and self-isolate until it gets real bad.
If you have better things to do than get sucked into this then maybe stay out of it.
His points are valid. The CDC estimates 600,000 to 1,700,000 deaths from this virus in the us in a worst case scenario. I'm not even going to apologize for trusting them more than anyone on here. They are literally the experts on this.
Emergency declarations carry the force of law and many rights are suspended or modified under them. Thank goodness we've all been lucky enough to be unfamiliar with that process.
Next on our non political discussion: Second Amendment rights, Freedom of Speech, and Taxes
Since nobody's posted this yet..
IBTL
In reply to FatMongo :
Thanks for proving yourself an intelligent and thoughtful person.
There are two dynamics going on here: hard hit areas with legitimate concerns about resources being stretched to the brim and not so hard it areas where the operating under the same mitigation efforts as the hard it areas may not be necessary.
If you're in a hard hit area, talk of golf courses and race tracks being open is ill advised but if you live in South Dakota or Wyoming, where the infection rates is a tenth of what it is in hard hit areas, the measures will appear to be extreme.
Couple this with the amount of fear that has been pumped into this (do not confuse fear with caution / efforts to mitigate the spread) News organizations will run a story endless to get the mileage out of it, it's just the nature of the business. So if you live in NYC area (including across the bridges in Jersey) which accounts for nearly 50% of the cases there is reason to be anxious. If you live in say the Dakotas or Wyoming then the coverage is over the top.
The fear is where the political component comes in; Governors, Mayors Senators etc don't want to be seen as under reacting to the issue. Yes they also want to be safe but they live in a world where their every action is seized upon by the opposition, they also have conflicting needs (employment numbers vs public safety) and those have to be weighed against each other. People's financial well being does have a direct effect on their health.
So in some places having events like a track day or playing golf will be safe if certain guidelines are followed, the prudent guidelines will also vary from place to place.
In reply to John Welsh (Forum Supporter) :
That reminds me of a story from years ago when a Piper landed to the wrong Runway 26 at Tulsa International.
... "He said the lady in the tower was saying 'you're too low you're too low.' And he said, 'No, I can see it. The runway.' And she said, 'No you're too low, you need to pull up.' And he said, 'No I'm on the ground.
docwyte
UberDork
4/17/20 11:53 a.m.
Well that escalated quickly. Look, I'd LOVE to open up for business, I'm firmly in the red with my business and fully expect my current May 4th opening date to get pushed back. I also got hosed getting the PPP loan, which predictably got sucked dry by large corporations like Ruth Chris. How they're considered a small business is baffling to me. However, given that I'm literally in the top risk group for getting infected/spreading infection I know opening would be foolish.
I'd LOVE to occupy myself with a track day, drag race or the like but that's a really stupid idea. It's not just if the venue can do it safely, think of all the collateral contact. You now need to get fuel, so you're going to the gas station, being around people, touching the pumps, etc. You go to the event and something horrible happens, now you're causing the EMS people to have to come out and touch/treat you and send you to the hospital, which is already over burdened.
And on and on and on.
At some point this will have to go away and we're going to have to be let back to work but we're not at that point yet.
Rodan
Dork
4/17/20 11:54 a.m.
dculberson (Forum Supporter) said:
The CDC estimates 600,000 to 1,700,000 deaths from this virus in the us in a worst case scenario. I'm not even going to apologize for trusting them more than anyone on here. They are literally the experts on this.
Those numbers are 0.1% - 0.5% of the US population... statistically insignificant. And that's worst case scenario.
I know I sound like a callous bastard, but I have parents in their 90s, and other family with health issues right square in the sights of this thing. You think I'm not worried for them?
We are in the process of destroying our economy and way of life over this. And people are cheering on the panic, and tossing the Constitution in the shredder.
A rational approach to this exists, but what we're doing isn't it.
I'm just here to thump my chest, retweet memes I see about liberty, and spout scholarly sounding pseudoscience that helps me assert some sort of protest over my continually dwindling masculinity.
@Fuelled by Caffine..............thank God someone rational finally posted as succinct analysis of the situation.
@docwyte well said.
Not much to add, except that Governors will show true leadership not by playing follow-the-leader to shut things down out of an abundance of caution, but to use common sense to reopen their economies in the face of uncertainty.
My county / city with a population of about 500k just hit 41....forty-one....confirmed active cases, with 175 recovered, and 2 deaths. 4000 tested. It think it makes sense to be brave, lean forward, and start getting people back to work.
I think on a world scale, and even from a US historical perspective, most of our state governments are doing a good job balancing public safety and civil liberty, at least in the short term.
Let's get back to work, where it makes sense. Where it doesn't, let's use some common sense and show a modicum of respect for authority and each other.
Now...I'm off to go start a tinfoil hat fashion show thread. Show us your best work with thin sheets of aluminum, folks.
I'm desperately trying to hold back here and failing.
We stole this land from the natives, forced them into tiny "reservations" and minimized their existence, and America loves to bully and push around other nations, so I don't want to hear about any liberty talk just because some people can't drive their 1000 horsepower Chevelles down a dragstrip right now.
Sorry mods. I'll understand if you ban me for this.
It is the track workers that are at risk, not the drivers. Are you OK when you crash to have the safety crew just say "your responsibility to get yourself out of the smashed car". We could run r/c racing keeping everyone separated.
The real problem is if this continues because people are not complying, we will have no choice but to try and start doing non-essential things but differently.
It is essential to have some income. But you won't have any when your customers are all dead.
Fatmongo, please check out the "Welcome to the Forum" post to review rules here. Then look in the mirror, see the shiny happy person looking back at you, and check yourself.
All, this is locked because obviously.
Margie
