History in the making, Part 2, V.2 - Israel/Palestine - NO RELIGION

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Yes

yupididit said:

I think IDF's response should be a good use of HUMINT to deliberately dismantle Hamas. Mass bombing where you think they are is only racking up civ casualties. Hamas has Palestinians in a E36 M3ty position and Israel has the capability and experience to get what they want in a more precise and less mass destructive way.

Given the scale and scope of recent intelligence failures, I'm not sure the Israelis are ready to trust that apparatus with primary responsibility for achieving their objectives here. That said, it's fairly clear that a tipping point exists for both continued external support and expansion of the conflict, and every bomb that lands in Gaza is tilting the scale a little further.

About the most creative and practical solution I've seen proposed, at least tactically, is to flood the Gaza tunnel network with seawater. The Egyptians did this with smuggling tunnels in 2019 to good effect. While there may be concerns about soil contamination, from what I can find, Gaza's aquifer is already contaminated due to overuse and seawater intrusion, and they thus rely on desalinization fairly heavily.

yupididit said:

My question for this group is: If the American govt was evil and killing people indiscriminately, how many of our children would be acceptable loses to us in order for the good guys to take down our govt?

The sad part is up until recently our government did this. It's not on topic but the people who continued on the tradition are still in office here. No one can remove them. 

The rest of your post is spot on. 

The leader of Hezbollah spoke a little while ago. Aside from the expected rhetoric, two points stand out. First, he stated that the 7 Oct operation against Israel was "100% Palestinian," apparently in an effort to deny Iran's involvement; few outside the Muslim world will believe this statement, but it points to a desire to limit the scope of the fighting and keep Iran out of the crosshairs. Second, while praising Iranian proxies in Syria and Yemen for their small-scale attacks on Israel, and noting that fighting could escalate at any time, he made no call for a wider assault by Hezbollah and other groups. Again, this points to an inclination to maintain pressure but not escalate.

Paradoxically, the extensive nature of the damage Israel is inflicting on Gaza, and the wide press coverage it's getting, may have convinced Hezbollah and Iranian leadership that they have more to gain more cheaply by allowing the Israelis to continue unfettered, rather than joining in the attack. Had the Israelis shown more restraint but nonetheless managed to make significant gains against Hamas, there might have been more incentive for external actors to get involved directly if they felt their window was closing.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

yupididit said:

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Yes

See that's the interesting point.  Must of the time I'm just trying to recognize and understand all of the possibilities.  That frames a baseline to begin a discussion.  If you can't establish that it's hard to find common ground.

Well you asked if the same logic could be applied to domestic issues in the US. The answer is yes. But, we like to think of our issues as something that can't be related to other issues that countries are having with their leadership and citizens. In reality we're all human and we generally all have the same flaws, success, and fears. Complaining is easy, holding your govt accountable is scary, and holding yourself accountable is even more scary. 

yupididit said:

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

yupididit said:

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Yes

See that's the interesting point.  Must of the time I'm just trying to recognize and understand all of the possibilities.  That frames a baseline to begin a discussion.  If you can't establish that it's hard to find common ground.

Well you asked if the same logic could be applied to domestic issues in the US. The answer is yes. But, we like to think of our issues as something that can't be related to other issues that countries are having with their leadership and citizens. In reality we're all human and we generally all have the same flaws, success, and fears. Complaining is easy, holding your govt accountable is scary, and holding yourself accountable is even more scary. 

Great post.  So how do we go about doing the last two things?  If no one is willing to tackle those, I think society is in bad shape.  Heck the fact that asking the question in the first place gets downvoted, doesn't bode well.  And before someone tries blaming me for that, learn to separate dislike of individuals from real issues.  It doesn't matter if anyone likes me if society stays on its present course.  It doesn't matter who you like or don't like if real changes don't start happening soon.  Being liked shouldn't be everyone's number one priority.  

In reply to AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) :

Although I am sure you will find the answer you seek as to how to fix the US political system.  I mean, you ask it often enough, eventually you will get the answer, right? I am pretty sure, this thread is not the place you will get that answer.

Perhaps you can start a thread on that subject to seek that answer.  Then of course, I suspect it will wander rather quickly into clearly heavily political subjects, which as everyone here is aware, are not allowed on this board.  Now, you may feel that free speech laws don't allow that restriction, but your feelings and beliefs do not reflect current law and are not relevant at this point.  That may change in the future, but for now, that is just the way it is.

Certainly, topic such as this have to clip the edges of political discussion, but really no reason to blatantly head straight at it.

Here is something that is a bit more relevant, and likely to be the next large chunk of poo to hit the fan:

Israel has apparently struck an ambulance in Gaza.  Quite obviously this is being portrayed as simply another step in Israel barbarism by Hamas.  Israel claims the ambulance was being use to transport terrorists and weapons.  Considering the main hospital al-Shifa Hospital is likely a Hamas stronghold, using ambulances as cover is hardly surprising.  Heck, they may even pick up some actual wounded (there are plenty) to make sure it looks more legit!  Again, you have to ask, what reason would Israel have to hit an ambulance (other then straight up mistake)?

(Israeli source): Ambulance attacked in Gaza transported Hamas terrorists and weapons   https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rjzycbmqp

(pro-Hamas source): Israeli air strike on ambulances kills 15, injures 60, Gaza officials say  https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/3/several-killled-in-israeli-attack-on-ambulance-convoy-gaza-health-ministry

This speaks to the likely reality that Israel has a HUGE marketing challenge ahead of it.  They need to get as much solid evidence that they can that show what they say has been going on, has been going on (e.g. hospital as base, using civilians as shields).  Of course, they can come up with the most solid proof every found in the history of man, and a percentage of the population will absolutely not believe it.  So, in a way, it doesn't matter what they do, which might explain some of there apparent ruthlessness.  Kind of an unintended consequence in way.  Of course, in this case, likely exactly what Hamas wants (more dead civilians).

I saw a couple of other interesting tidbits that are both say... something:

-  Video of Palestinian children playing in trenches for burying the mass dead singing "Here is where we play, here is also where we will be buried".  It a tough call to say whether that comes from the constant indoctrination that the evil Jews exist to kill them, or the bombing that is killing them.

- Video of a Palestinian mother morning her dead child.  At one point she call out blaming the "Hamas dogs" for this.  Here mouth is mediately covered of course.  My suspicion is she now has a nice new apartment sitting on top of a Hamas command post.

aircooled said:
 

Of course, they can come up with the most solid proof every found in the history of man, and a percentage of the population will absolutely not believe it.

 

That's going to be a problem.  Sadly it's almost universal today regardless of the topic.  Driving the percentage down sure would help though.

Yes we hit a ambulance convoy on purpose, because we think there were bad guys in there.... when else would that ever fly? 

yupididit said:

Yes we hit a ambulance convoy on purpose, because we think there were bad guys in there.... when else would that ever fly? 

yupididit said: ...I think IDF's response should be a good use of HUMINT to deliberately dismantle Hamas...

Perhaps the ambulance was targeted based on good use of HUMINT and deliberately attacked at that time to minimize casualties. From the linked article:

The IDF Spokesperson's Unit said Friday that an aircraft struck an ambulance in the Gaza Strip, which, according to intelligence was being used by a specific Hamas unit closely positioned to the combat zone.

HAMAS can claim whatever they want and throw in a pile of little bodies for a photo op and feed it to their media.

The IDF can present documentation and video and feed it to their media.

None of it matters. People believe what they will and discard what doesn't support their mindset.

Nobody is going to change yupdidit's or Anthony GS's (or my) mindset with internet facts or selected quotes.

-----------------------------------

I think that the aftermath is going to influence the future of the region much more than the battles in Gaza. Will it all be rebuilt? Where will the money come from? Who will seize power? Will Palestinians have anything to hope for other than the destruction of Israel?

In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :

To you last point, the current scuttlebutt is that the US is trying to broker some sort of Gulf Arab-led provisional government for Gaza, that would include a big pile of rebuilding money and probably some troops. The hope is that this would lay the groundwork to get Hamas or other Iran-sponsored groups out of the de facto leadership business, and hopefully make some sort of Palestinian self-government a realistic possibility. One of many sticking points is that the is a lot of resistance to anything that would facilitate divorcing Gaza from the West Bank, leaving two Palestinian entities instead of one.

100k people show up in DC for a Pro Palestine rally. Chant "from the river to the sea," spray paint buildings, and try to climb the Whitehouse fence.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12711815/amp/Antisemitic-vandalism-capital-thousands-protesters-DC.html

In reply to 02Pilot :

So the same process that created Hamas should be tried again to remove Hamas?  Last time got a name change from PLO to Hamas.  What will they call the new version?  There are no good answers or good guys in this mess.  The smart play is stay out of it.  There are plenty of problems in our house to resolve.  

In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :

My mindset and views are based off the SITREPS that I see daily at work. And my multiple trips to Israel to train with IDF. I don't say a whole lot because I know I won't change anyone's mind. I do not watch the news nor read the articles posted. But, I've met plenty of Israeli soldiers in Israel, and Palestinians in Israel and Jordan over the past 2 years. Hearing their words out of their mouths, they do not think Palestinians are humans ("rats") or deserve human consideration. Hamas of course uses that against the Palestinians and Israel with the backing of other unstated states, this is all bad. 

Just like you said IDF could show evidence and not change minds, they could do whatever they want without any intel and not change minds. Hamas doesn't have to pile bodies to make effective videos, Israel indiscriminate strikes piles the bodies for them. 

The truth of the matter is, whether they give a reason or not, they're furthering Hamas cause and will be the catalyst for the next generation of Hamas+. A ceasefire will leave Hamas in place, yes. But, continuing to barrage the place with bombs will not weed out Hamas nor will it weaken their cause. 

There are terrorists in place all over America and the world and we know exactly where they're making camp. But, we do not just blow the whole damn thing and everyone around just to get them. 

And rebuilding the area afterwards is not going to happen. We didn't rebuild Iraq or Afghanistan, in fact we made one of the worst mistakes ever in our attempt to rebuild Iraq. The Middle East isn't Europe, Americans and the "west" do not see any connection with the people from the middle east therefore our tax dollars to rebuild those places would never be supported like it would be for European nations.

AnthonyGS (Forum Supporter) said:

In reply to 02Pilot :

So the same process that created Hamas should be tried again to remove Hamas?  Last time got a name change from PLO to Hamas.  What will they call the new version?  There are no good answers or good guys in this mess.  The smart play is stay out of it.  There are plenty of problems in our house to resolve.  

The Gaza Strip and West Bank have never been governed by external Arab actors in the region. Gaza was controlled by Egypt, and the West Bank by Jordan, until 1967, but both of these countries had interests in limiting their development, and neither at the time had reason or resources to improve the situation of the Palestinians or stabilize the region. If a group of wealthy Gulf Arab states with ties to the US (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, etc.) can come to an agreement on taking control, they will undermine Iran's influence in the region and reduce tensions, which it is very much in their interest to do.

This is not to say that there may not be pushback or attempts to counter efforts toward stability, but the circumstances in the region are quite different now to what they were six decades ago: Israel has far better relations with several Arab states, an Iran is now an anti-Western power center, just for two paradigm-shifting examples.

I too would prefer that "we" stay out of it and solve our own problems.

Sadly my country's righteous system of governance has evolved into a body fueled by greed and the perception of power - which mostly just ends up valuing profit over people. So it's complicated. 

OHSCrifle said:

I too would prefer that "we" stay out of it and solve our own problems.

Sadly my country's righteous system of governance has evolved into a body....

Canadian?

-Just kidding.  Let's veer away from politics again.

In reply to AAZCD-Jon (Forum Supporter) :

Good call. Thanks

yupididit said:

...And rebuilding the area afterwards is not going to happen. We didn't rebuild Iraq or Afghanistan, in fact we made one of the worst mistakes ever in our attempt to rebuild Iraq. The Middle East isn't Europe, Americans and the "west" do not see any connection with the people from the middle east therefore our tax dollars to rebuild those places would never be supported like it would be for European nations.

I am going to strongly agree with you on this one.  I have to say though (and not wanting to wander into anything political here) there is clear indication that that is something that is strongly being considered.  It's like they have zero concept of how things work over there (not saying I am an expert just based on historical examples/results as you are).

Also, on your point about extremists in Israel, here is an interesting data point: 

.....When asked by the interview whether a nuclear weapon could be used on Gaza, Eliyahu responded: "That's one way." 

Eliyahu also advocated for Israel taking control of the strip's territory and expelling Palestinians, who he suggested could go "to Ireland or deserts," per The Times of Israel.....

....Netanyahu suspended Eliyahu from Cabinet meetings until further notice, the Associated Press reported. The outlet noted that the move had "no practical effect."

https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-minister-suggested-nuking-gaza-swiftly-slapped-down-2023-11?op=1

Of course, the contrast here is if this was a minister from a  Palestinian government or Iran, they would be quite popular and be fully supported.  In this case, he was immediately dismissed from any power.  He did generally walk back what he said later, but really, did reveal himself a bit of course.  This is to point to the likelihood that, although there are extremists an both sides, it is almost certainly more common and far more supported on the Palestinian "side" (more the reason why things won't every really change).

In reply to aircooled :

Of course Palestinians have gross sentiments towards Israel's as Israeli's have towards them. But, who has the power, money, political backing and military might to destroy the other with that mindset in their hearts?