History in the making, Part 2, V.2 - Israel/Palestine - NO RELIGION

No sides here, though it seems to me Israel is the victim in this instance. 

I've been hearing about the Middle East since I was a single digit age child. Seems like nothing has changed. I see only two solutions that change this.

1)  They have a full scale war and one side really wins, decimating the opposition enough they will not bother anymore.

2)  The general populace gets fed up enough with it to end it, like Northern Ireland.  This choice seems unlikely, since we are dealing with religious fanatacism (not necessarily in the general populace though).

The only other choice is it continues on as it has. And the next multiple generations continue to see it on the news and wonder, "What the berkeley is wrong with those people?"

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Nearest I can tell in my limited exposure it's a combination of eye for an eye (You blew up my E36 M3 so ima blow up your E36 M3....that old gem) and I hate you because I was told to hate you.  I believe every multi-generational conflict on this earth can be boiled down to the same base ingredients. Bloods and Crips, Hatfields and McCoys... seems to be all about the same these days. 

ETA- Seems to be no one can really remember WHY most of these conflicts started past " was told to hate you" either. I'm also a big fan of the late great Lt. Aldo Raine who famously said "That means no guns me, no guns you" before entering a Nazi basement to negotiate after a shootout. If both sides would be willing to do such things it might be more productive, but I suspect whoevers at the back end of this whole thing finds it more profitable to blow their pawns up. War is a weird thing. 

In regards to the media strangeness I posted above:  One of the aspects here that is important to understand here I think is that is well know, HAMAS controls Gaza. Because of that, they have a lot of control over what information comes out of Gaza and what gets seen.  As an example is the death counts.  Certainly many killed, but the Health Ministry (or whatever it is called) that are reporting these numbers, are very much under the control of HAMAS.  They are also almost certainly controlling the media that is there the best they can (allowing access to certain things, not to others etc). E.g. if the Israelis blow up some weapons cache, or show HAMAS blockading civilians from leaving, you can be assured they will not allow media access to evidence of that.

As another potential example of this, there is the hospital explosion, which was originally reported as 100's dead, up to 500 (1000s?).  This numbers seem very unlikely considering the evidence that can be seen.  On this subject, I saw this news report on the attack, that seems like a pretty objective take on it.  I was however rather confused by the title of the website, which appeared to have something to do with Iran, NOT where you would expect an objective take, and as noted, it always very important to considered the source. 

It turns out the outlet is some sort of nongovernment, outside Iran, maybe what you consider a counter to Iran state media.  Anyway, what seems like a reasonable take:

80 Beds Yet Hundreds Dead: Questions Emerge Over Gaza Hospital Attack
      https://www.iranintl.com/en/202310183236

If you are curious, you can compare that to the report from Aljazeera take (which is super pro-HAMAS).
What hit al-Ahli Hospital in Gaza?
     https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/19/what-hit-ahli-hospital-in-gaza 

I guess the point is, when you see any information coming out of Gaza, most all of it really should be proceeded with "HAMAS says" or "HAMAS allowed us to see".  Doesn't mean it may not be entirely true, but....  and as is implied, what they are not seeing is likely the most important part of the control.  Obviously the same can be said for info out of Israel, but I think that is a bit more apparent when that happens.

Oh, and another tidbit that I heard was the that rockets that are fired at Israel (many are home made) have a 30% failure rate.  Even if it's 10%, and I suspect many failures are just not launching, it's pretty certain them rocketing their own civilians has happened many times before.

I've seen a report that the USS Carney, operating in the northern Red Sea, has engaged and downed three or more cruise missiles fired from Yemen and traveling north toward "currently undetermined targets". Given that Yemen is home to many Iranian proxy forces, it's not a hard thing to figure out where they were headed. This is an interesting use of US naval assets, essentially serving as an outer ring of air defense for Israel. A bit unexpected, but very much in keeping with the US desire to keep the conflict from expanding into other areas.

Mndsm said:

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

Nearest I can tell in my limited exposure it's a combination of eye for an eye (You blew up my E36 M3 so ima blow up your E36 M3....that old gem) and I hate you because I was told to

I understand that part.  Take two different ethnic/religious groups, dictate their borders via a UN decree in 1948, then call the land to the east The West Bank.  I realize the fighting has been going on longer than that, but I'm not sure what the UN expected when they drew a line down the center of what is viewed as the holy land for two different religious groups.

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

A compromise is sometimes described as a deal where both parties are disappointed.    Throw in some religious fanaticism...

02Pilot said:

I've seen a report that the USS Carney, operating in the northern Red Sea, has engaged and downed three or more cruise missiles fired from Yemen and traveling north toward "currently undetermined targets". Given that Yemen is home to many Iranian proxy forces, it's not a hard thing to figure out where they were headed. This is an interesting use of US naval assets, essentially serving as an outer ring of air defense for Israel. A bit unexpected, but very much in keeping with the US desire to keep the conflict from expanding into other areas.

Sea wiz??

Because that's kinda cool

Hezbollah continues to attack across the boarder into Israel (from Lebanon, in the north).  They have fired rockets, artillery and guided anti-tank rockets.  There is obviously a concern there might be some sort of attack from here when/if Israel goes into Gaza.  That area is semi rural in many areas.

Israel's mini-cabinet: Green light for the army to enter Gaza when it is ready

Israel has continued to bomb Gaza, including the southern area (where the civilians are supposed to flee to)

They apparently got someone important (in the northern area).  Does this mean he is part of HAMAS?  I don't know (I think so?).

Palestinian media report that Jihad Muheisen, head of the National Security Forces in the Gaza Strip, was killed in a strike on the Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City. No comment yet from the Israeli arm

Egypt clearly wants nothing to do with allowing any Palestinians in, but have apparently agreed to let some aid through the border.  How much of this goes to feed HAMAS fighters, and how much to common civilians?  

Dozens of trucks loaded with aid are still waiting to enter Gaza through the Rafah crossing

Egypt state news agency says border will open tomorrow for awaited aid shipments into Gaza

tuna55 said:

02Pilot said:

I've seen a report that the USS Carney, operating in the northern Red Sea, has engaged and downed three or more cruise missiles fired from Yemen and traveling north toward "currently undetermined targets". Given that Yemen is home to many Iranian proxy forces, it's not a hard thing to figure out where they were headed. This is an interesting use of US naval assets, essentially serving as an outer ring of air defense for Israel. A bit unexpected, but very much in keeping with the US desire to keep the conflict from expanding into other areas.

Sea wiz??

 

Because that's kinda cool

Unlikely they got that close. I expect SM-2, or possibly some undisclosed EW capability. The suggestion was that it was a kinetic intercept, however.

More info on the missile (and drone) shoot downs in the Red Sea:  https://abcnews.go.com/amp/International/security-incident-involving-us-navy-destroyer-red-sea/story?id=104147141

Looks like it might haven a bit of luck it was there? Certainly there will be a presence there from now on though.

The USS Carney had just transited into the Red Sea through the Suez Canal on Wednesday which is why the destroyer was still located in the northern stretch of that body of water that borders, Egypt, Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.

Violence only brings more violence and this is not a war that can be won by any side.

Maybe Israel could fight HAMAS by building a refugee camp to the east of Gaza (together with the UN) and only let women and children enter (and maybe vetted non-combatants). There they could be provided with shelter, water, food and healthcare, things that the HAMAS seems to have problem with even in peacetime. 

That would maybe have a bigger impact (!?) on HAMAS then dropping bombs on them? Not saying that they shouldn't drop bombs on them. 

In reply to Lasso :

Unfortunately HAMAS will never let that happen. They've already blocked refugees from moving south. They have always used civilians as shields. They have no concern for human life other than ending every jewish life they can. 

Just a thought, but if I lived in a E36 M3ty neighborhood where my neighbor took shots at my house every now and then and beat up my kid once a week eventually I'd consider moving.

Israel could pack up and move lock, stock, and barrel to Nevada.  Plenty of desert, lots of buffets and gambling, fewer angry neighbors.  Feels like a win to me because staying put hasn't worked for the last 75 years.

KyAllroad said:

Just a thought, but if I lived in a E36 M3ty neighborhood where my neighbor took shots at my house every now and then and beat up my kid once a week eventually I'd consider moving.

Israel could pack up and move lock, stock, and barrel to Nevada.  Plenty of desert, lots of buffets and gambling, fewer angry neighbors.  Feels like a win to me because staying put hasn't worked for the last 75 years.

You must be unfamiliar with immigration laws. Also it's a bit callous to just suggest people just leave when an invading force comes over. Ukraine? Kuwait? Korea? Vietnam? We even turned Jews around on the shores of the US in boats ready to disembark and sent them back to Nazi concentration camps. https://www.michaeldobbsbooks.com/the-unwanted.html

In reply to KyAllroad :

Although, not a bad idea, even ignoring some of the practical aspects Tuna points out, there is the problem of the fact that that area is the focal point of 3 religions (two of which seem to be willing to die over it).  It's a pretty big part of the issue. Probably pretty secondary at this point, but it's always going to be there.

I do agree though, given the option, I certainly would have zero interest in ever living in Israel.  I hear it is a nice place... but no way.

Not terribly surprising and probably reasonable considering.  Although I suspect this will be presented as a land grab by the other side.

Israel war: Israeli foreign minister says Gaza territory will shrink after war

“At the end of this war, not only will Hamas no longer be in Gaza, but the territory of Gaza will also decrease,” Cohen said.

Israeli officials have previously indicated that Gaza will be changed in some way and that the old order will be upended, but they hadn't spoken of changes to Gaza's territory.

The Times of Israel speculated that the statement indicates that Israel will move to create a buffer zone within Gaza to prevent attacks against Israeli border villages, such as the brutal attack by Hamas earlier this month.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/foreign/israeli-fm-gaza-territory-shrink-after-war

aircooled said:

Not terribly surprising and probably reasonable considering.  Although I suspect this will be presented as a land grab by the other side.

Israel war: Israeli foreign minister says Gaza territory will shrink after war

To be fair, historically, expansionist Israel has put a lot of pressure on the people and territory.

Looks like they are opening the Egyptian boarder crossing (for aid).  I knew it was closed, but it looks like they had essentially put up an actual wall barrier(!):

Egypt is about to finish road repairs on the Palestinian side of Rafah border crossing to allow trucks loaded with aid to enter Gaza. On the Egyptian side of Rafah crossing more than 175 trucks loaded with humanitarian aid waiting to cross into Gaza

Apparently Telegram started blocking some Palestinian channels, including Hamas' official channel

Which is interesting.  Telegram (basically the Twitter of the eastern world) allows pretty much ANYTHING on it!  I did not even know there were any restrictions.

This speaks a bit to what the eventual Israeli plan is:

Israeli Defense Minister: The war on Hamas is divided into 3 stages, the first from the air, then on land, then the creation of a new authority in Gaza

In response to Hezbollah attacks.  Normally, attacks across a boarder are acts of war, but I guess in this part of the world, it's just another day.  Lebanon is a bit of an s-show political wise I hear anyway.

Israeli army says it struck several more Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon overnight in response to yesterday’s rocket and missile fire, and separately says it carried out a drone strike killing a terror operative in the area.

An older gentleman who I respect opined to me the other day that the U.S. brought upon the downfall of the U.S.S.R. by outspending them and basically bankrupting them in defense spending during the cold war.  Now the U.S. is sending funds to Ukraine to defend against the Russians.  Next up, Israel, which is getting direct U.S. support for the recent attacks there.  The next logical step would be China going into Taiwan, which the U.S. would almost certainly get involved with.

That would be 3 wars, on 3 different fronts, all funded by U.S. taxpayer dollars & debt, at a time when a) Congress is working on a temporary spending authorization, and doesn't have an immediately clear path forward to stable funding for the upcoming fiscal year, and b) the Fed is driving up interest rates, to fight inflation caused by expanded federal spending over the past 3 years, meaning that borrowing costs for the U.S. government will be higher for the foreseeable future.  Currently about 10% of the federal budget is used just to pay interest on the national debt.

I don't like to engage in pessimism, because we always seem to find a way to extract ourselves from out from under slow moving disasters like this, but man, that is a motherberkeleyer of a slow moving disaster.  

Duke said:

To be fair, historically, expansionist Israel has put a lot of pressure on the people and territory.

I don't know enough about the topic, but from what I understand, this has been a major issue of the conflict. 

Israel has made global allies, and has a strong economy. Palestine has not had as much success, largely due in part to control over access to the sea, and different geopolitical alignments. 

Israeli settlements have expanded, and networked together via infrastructure to give even more remote areas access to jobs. 

How exactly settlers continue to acquire land, I'm not sure, and I think is the root of the conflict. Israeli settlers appear to leverage the support of the IDF to expand into areas that Palestinian families claim, but cannot utilize, with little compensation. 

Am I off base on this? It's a very complex topic with a bunch of different things to research on and summarize. 

So, here is a chance to read into motivations:

Hamas Releases 2 American Hostages For ‘Humanitarian Reasons’

Hamas said in a statement the release of the hostages was done “for humanitarian reasons” and to prove “the claims made by Biden and his fascist administration are false and baseless.”

Hamas did not specify in the statement what false claims the Biden Administration had made.

The Red Cross confirmed it had received the hostages in Gaza, according to the Messenger, with the Israel Defense Forces saying the two would be transported to Egypt and then back home to the U.S.

Reuters reports the release comes after mediation efforts between Hamas and representatives from Qatar.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/hamas-releases-2-american-hostages-for-humanitarian-reasons/ar-AA1iAgwm

According to Israeli Officials, the 2 Americans who have been Released by Hamas are 59 y/o Judith Ra'anan and her 18 y/o Daughter, Nathalie who are both from the Suburbs of Chicago, Illinois and were Kidnapped by Hamas while Visiting their Grandmother in the Town of Nahal Oz near the Gaza Strip

aircooled said:

In reply to KyAllroad :

I do agree though, given the option, I certainly would have zero interest in ever living in Israel.  I hear it is a nice place... but no way.

I have a friend in a car club who moved to Israel. His wife is a doctor, and they left the US for Israel because of their Jewish beliefs that they belong there. Smart people, but looks like insanity to a non-religious person. My brain simply can't compute that kind of rationalization.

As for us spending ourselves into oblivion supporting all these other wars, that's another form of insanity. Ukraine gets something of a pass, because a lot of our aid is in outdated equipment we were going to auction off anyway. They are an underdog, and Putin is evil, so I'm mostly okay with it. The Israel/Hamas war is one that will never have a winning side, and getting involved in that has no upside that I see. Taiwan? If China wants it, they'll take it. It's a political pinball.

In reply to ddavidv :

I feel the countries/leaders in your analysis are somewhat fungible, looking at the situations from agnostic perspectives. 

I had a guy who was supposed to come for some Volvo parts Friday afternoon. He works in DC in a LEO capacity. He called me Friday to cancel as they had to up headcount due to the protests going on down there regarding the Israel-Palestinian situation. 

I have to say, opinion wise, I am a bit concerned with the large pro-Palastinian demonstrations.  Not surprising in the parts of the world, where you could jin up almost anything into a huge anti-jew-Israel-west demonstration but in the US.  Certainly, the killing of civilians in a war is a bad thing and worthy of dispute, but these seem to go well beyond that.  E.g. certainly no demonstrations of size when the Israeli civilians where killed (and kidnapped), or the ongoing attacks on Isreali civilians (rockets).  As noted previously, I am very suspicious some of these, particularly the slogans and demands stated, are the result of ignorance of the reality of the situation (which as I think was made clear here, is wildly convoluted) and are likely heavily influenced by psy-op style info campaigns. As can already be seen, these sort of campaigns can get good traction in the world of semi-reality based social media "news / info"

As an example of what I am talking about.  One of the phrases you hear "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free". (or even "Free Palestine", which I think, reality wise, is just a shortened version). Which sounds nice, and rhymes, (which clearly makes is more true!), but, at it's base, and considering the reality of the situation (Palestinians and Israelis are never really going to be living amongst each other) it's pretty ominous.  The river, for reference is the river Jordan, the sea of course is the Mediterranean.  As can be seen in the map, there is a pretty obvious needed change...

Am I saying these people in these protest want ot kill all Jews?  Certainly not.  Am I saying it can be interpreted as such, especially in parts of the world,  I suspect so.

Thoughts?