aircooled said:Russia will "rhythmically and calmly" continue its operation but the most important strategic conclusion was that the unipolar international order which the United States had built after the Cold War was breaking up, Putin said.
Well, in that specific point, he's not wrong. We have been heading for multipolarity - the natural and historically most common state of the global order - for some time now.
I think, realistically, there was never anything close to unipolarity. There was a bunch of "we are all on the same team" countries, and a number "yeah, right" countries and always a few "f' you all" countries.
02Pilot said:aircooled said:Russia will "rhythmically and calmly" continue its operation but the most important strategic conclusion was that the unipolar international order which the United States had built after the Cold War was breaking up, Putin said.
Well, in that specific point, he's not wrong. We have been heading for multipolarity - the natural and historically most common state of the global order - for some time now.
Yeah, but he prolly thinks Russia is going to be a Major Player... By the time he's run this into the ground it'll be Huge Tracts of Land with some nukes guarding it...
aircooled said:I think, realistically, there was never anything close to unipolarity. There was a bunch of "we are all on the same team" countries, and a number "yeah, right" countries and always a few "f' you all" countries.
I am sure from his perspective, or at least his narrative, everything is either Russia, or Western puppets.
In reply to aircooled :
It's a tricky thing to define, but generally speaking when IR people talk about the global system, they're basically talking about great powers. I think an argument can be made that between 1991 and at least 2001 (and probably more like 2010), the US was the only state to fit the definition.
On a peripherally related subject, I came across this piece earlier today and thought it might be of interest here in light of the multipolarity discussion. There are some minor mentions of domestic policy that could be construed as controversial, but they're hardly the focus of the argument.
stroker said:Yeah, but he prolly thinks Russia is going to be a Major Player... By the time he's run this into the ground it'll be a Huge Gas Station with some nukes guarding it...
Fixed that for ya.
volvoclearinghouse said:stroker said:Yeah, but he prolly thinks Russia is going to be a Major Player... By the time he's run this into the ground it'll be a Huge Gas Station with some nukes guarding it...
Fixed that for ya.
I saw an opportunity to put in a "Monty Python and the Holy Grail", reference. 
Some tidbits:
- Some official in France (can't find reference) indicated that American and British Special Forces are on the ground in Ukraine. Probably not a big surprise, and are almost certainly not directly involved, but they certainly could be useful in coordination etc.
- Russians are jamming GPS signals in eastern Ukraine. They might be a bit concerned about Ukraine getting ahold of some GPS guided munitions.
- There are assumptions that May 9th, Russian victory in Europe, WWII, is a critical date for Russia.
- Russians seem to be moving out ethnic Russians from areas and might want to use them to move back in once they have killed and cleared out all the Nazi's(!)
A map showing the North East area. The yellow circle shows where large vehicle convoys have been spotted, with encampments to the east. Perhaps indicating preparations for the attack on Kharkiv (just to the west).
As mentioned previously, it is assumed Russia will line up huge amounts of conventional and rocket artillery a just flatten areas (e.g. Kharkiv) before they attack. I am curious what the plan is to deal with this. US (and the Ukrainians) will almost certainly know where every one of these will be emplaced (see image below). The Ukrainians have been using the Turkish drones to take out Russian artillery in the past (which the Russians hated), but I wonder if they have the numbers to deal with the amount of artillery likely involved.
If the Ukrainians have some ground to give up, they could potentially setup some pretty serious tactical retreat options that could do devastating damage. The Germans where masterful with this in their retreat in WWII and inflicted very heavy casualties on the Russians (who didn't care, they had plenty of bodies to throw at them).
The Ukrainians (and US) will have had a few weeks to prepare, it will be interesting to see what hey come up with. The Russians... they will likely just do what they do... roll forward with mass artillery, tanks and troops.
JSTARS radar image overlaid on aerial image. Most of the objects are obviously cars.
I'm interested to find out how much the Ukrainians have been doing behind Russian lines. Given the way the Russians have been advancing along major roadways, bypassing many non-critical towns and villages, it would seem there is ample opportunity for hit-and-run attacks against their rear echelons. I suspect a lot of the video of Javelin/NLAW/etc. attacks have been of this sort, though I haven't seen proof. Assuming that the Ukrainians are conducting this sort of attack on a regular, organized basis, the Russians are either going to have to secure their holdings or continue to bleed while they pound their targets to dust. New weapons deliveries from the West are only going to exacerbate this situation. As I've noted here before, time is not on Putin's side; failing major collapse of Ukrainian resistance, Russia risks the death of its military by a thousand cuts. Zelensky knows this, and I think it's likely why he is comfortable taking a fairly hard line in negotiations, in spite of the damage being inflicted on his country.
On the subject of negotiations, concerns about branding Putin a war criminal seem to have been borne out, with his withdrawal from talks on this basis. He still thinks Russia can gain its objectives (which are very murky, by the way), but the longer this goes on the worse his negotiating position is likely to be, unless he takes the whole country. I would love to know just what information he is getting from his advisors, and how accurately the situation is being portrayed. I don't think he is completely in the dark - he was an intelligence operative, after all - but there may be selective reporting going on that makes things look considerably better than they are on the ground.
Along similar lines, there clearly has been some action by the Ukrainians behind the lines (this is in Russia near Kharkov):
Railway bridge was damaged in Schebekyno district of Belgorod region. Russian investigative committee opened investigation
As far as attacking their extended advance lines, that seemed to be pretty common in the northern attack (where they stretched pretty hard to get to Kyiv), but I am not sure how much of that happened in the south. For this new phase though, it will be a bit more difficult because it is likely to be a more general advance, but I would certainly expect some rear area attacks, especially in formerly held areas. This is likely something the special forces will be very helpful with.
One thing I forgot to mention is that the Ukrainians are creating what they are calling the Freedom of Russia Legion. These are captured Russians soldiers fighting for Ukraine. They are even creating a propaganda campaign to recruit Russian solders to come fight for the other side (I am a bit suspicious that they would entirely trust an ex-Russian solder though....)
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-defense-kyiv-troops-change-sides-freedom-1693274
I don't know what you guys think, but I am starting to think Aircooled has better intel than the Russians.
Noddaz said:I don't know what you guys think, but I am starting to think Aircooled has better intel than the Russians.
It's pretty insane how badly they are at war. It makes everything else they do make a lot more sense, though. I read a good article in the WSJ today how surprised the cyber community was with the relatively simplistic and easily defensible cyber attacks had been.
tuna55 said:Noddaz said:I don't know what you guys think, but I am starting to think Aircooled has better intel than the Russians.
It's pretty insane how badly they are at war. It makes everything else they do make a lot more sense, though. I read a good article in the WSJ today how surprised the cyber community was with the relatively simplistic and easily defensible cyber attacks had been.
Also it makes this make a lot more sense: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/russias-only-aircraft-carrier-junk-so-why-moscow-sticking-it-180408
In reply to Kreb (Forum Supporter) :
That was a good read, thanks.
How do you pronounce that ship? Admiral Kluts-Numb-Nuts-Off? Don't I remember that thing in the Mediterranean off of Syria and the fact that it's SU-33 fighters could take off with full weapons load or full fuel, but not both?
Wikipedia: Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Klutsnumbnutsoff
I still say that it's too bad we don't have the USS Missouri and New Jersey still commissioned. One in the South China Sea and the other in the Mediterranean or Baltic Seas steaming at full speed ahead aiming at any Russian or Chinese warships it comes across playing a game of chicken like they do to us.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:Interesting read:
That pretty much echoes what I am hearing from a guy that served with the Russians in Kosovo during the Balkans war. He generally characterizes them as unprofessional, completely lacking in trust in the lower ranks and of course wildly corrupt. The NCO's, (sargents etc.) having almost no authority to make their own decisions and thus making for huge issues if things don't go as planned (as you might have noticed). This also explains why Russian generals seem to be so easy to pick off, because they need to stay close to the troops they do not trust.
There is also a general tendency to "rule by fear', so shooting a few soldiers for not doing what they are supposed to do (this does not include raping and looting of course) is a reasonable tactic. All of which does not generally make for robust moral.
Also of note, it appears Mariupol may be on the verge of surrender:
aircooled said:That pretty much echoes what I am hearing from a guy that served with the Russians in Kosovo during the Balkans war. He generally characterizes them as unprofessional, completely lacking in trust in the lower ranks and of course wildly corrupt. The NCO's, (sargents etc.) having almost no authority to make their own decisions and thus making for huge issues if things don't go as planned (as you might have noticed). This also explains why Russian generals seem to be so easy to pick off, because they need to stay close to the troops they do not trust.
From what I have read, under the Soviet Union the entirety of the enlisted force were conscript soldiers who were only there for a few years. NCOs were just the best of the conscripts, they weren't around for any longer than the others and didn't have the decades of experience that western NCOs do, meaning that the lower ranking officers had to supply that professionalism. It sounds like the Russians haven't really changed all that much in this regard.
Kreb (Forum Supporter) said:Interesting read:
That was a great read sir
In reply to VolvoHeretic :
I’m a big fan of big old steam powered ships but trust me they wouldn’t last 10 minutes in a modern warfare environment. This was true even when they were relatively new; their service in Korea, Vietnam and if I’m remembering correctly off Beirut in the 80’s was only possible because we had complete control of the air. Other platforms provide most of the benefits without the huge operational costs and vulnerabilities.
In reply to 11GTCS :
I'm just talking about how the Ruskies and Chinese treat us and the Philippines and others during none wartime. 
They keep trying to ram our ships during our freedom of the seas demonstrations and I would like to see them try that with something a little less fragile.
11GTCS said:In reply to VolvoHeretic :
I’m a big fan of big old steam powered ships but trust me they wouldn’t last 10 minutes in a modern warfare environment. This was true even when they were relatively new; their service in Korea, Vietnam and if I’m remembering correctly off Beirut in the 80’s was only possible because we had complete control of the air. Other platforms provide most of the benefits without the huge operational costs and vulnerabilities.
But I saw a documentary called "Battleship" a few years ago that showed they were the only way to fight off the aliens. And I know it was true, because Rihanna was in it.
Maersk is pulling its operations out of Russia.
“Russia has for many years been a large and important market for Maersk, but naturally we cannot continue operating critical infrastructure in Russia as if nothing has happened,” Chief Executive Soren Skou said.
“We may not be able to return to doing business in Russia for many years to come. This is a price we are both willing to and able to pay.”
Tom_Spangler (Forum Supporter) said:But I saw a documentary called "Battleship" a few years ago that showed they were the only way to fight off the aliens.
We need to save the battleships as museum ships so that when the time comes we can refit them with the Dimensional Wave Motion Engine.
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